The investment climate for mining, exploration and mineral sands - Sykes - Mar 2018 - MinEx Consulting

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration
The current investment
landscape for mining,
exploration & mineral sands
John Sykes
Strategist, MinEx Consulting
also
PhD Candidate, Centre for Exploration Targeting, The University of Western Australia (UWA)
Lecturer, Strategic Management of Resource Companies and Strategic Analysis & Consulting, Business School, UWA
Lecturer, Strategic Planning & Practice, Australian Institute of Management, WA
Managing Director, Greenfields Research
19th Australian Mineral Sands Conference 22nd March 2018, Perth, WA
Image: Shutterstock

How do we make sense of this?
The White
House's Climate
Change Believers
Are Headed Out
the Door
- Time, 15 March 2018
U.S.-Backed Fighters Take Largest
Syrian Oil Field From ISIS
- The New York Times, 22 October 2017
Sanjeev Gupta to beat Tesla's
Elon Musk with bigger
battery in South Australia
- Australian Financial Review, 16 March 2018
Brazil dam collapse:
BHP to give $235 million
more for clean-up of
environmental disaster
- ABC, 22 December 2017
Rio Tinto unit
Turquoise Hill targeted
by Mongolian Anti-
Corruption Authority
- Australian Financial Review, 14
March 2018

From the world to mining & exploration to mineral sands
The themes
1. Globalisation and sustainable
development
2. The ‘tech boom’ and disruptive
innovation
3. Climate change and the energy
transition
The insight
How does each theme affect the mineral
sands industry?
Contextual
environment
(The rest of the
world)
Transactional
environment
(The mining
industry)
The
mineral
sands
industry
Macroeconomics
Source: Ramirez & Wilkinson (2016)

GLOBALISATION & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
The current investment landscape for mining, exploration and mineral sands
Image: The Independent

Nearly a decade of economic & financial growth…
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
World Annual Real GDP Growth (%)
-2
4998
9998
14998
19998
24998
29998
34998
Dow Jones Year-end Industrial Index
2017 estimate & 2018-20
forecasts made by the World Bank
2018-20 forecasts based on annual
average growth rate 2008-2017
Data: World Bank, Statista

…but concerns about inequality, China & the environment
2017 estimate & 2018-20
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Atmospheric CO2 Levels
(ppm)
‘Elephant’ curve of global inequality and growth, 1980-2016
Data: World Inequality Report 2018; NOAA

…make for ‘interesting times’
Images: The Independent; Climate Depot; Quora; NewsBusters; National Review; The Australian; InDaily; Courier Mail; News.com.au; Shutterstock

…with implications (good and bad) for mining
Less green & red tape
Government support
Lower taxes(?)
Strong coal, uranium(?), steel &
base metals demand
Focus on health and safety(?)
Strong economic growth(?)
Less access to foreign talent &
projects
Weak economic growth(?)
Resource nationalism & harder
social licence
Weaker demand for uranium(?),
renewable and battery metals
Source: Sykes et al., 2017

It was simple in the binary politics of the Cold War…
Socialist
Capitalist
Australian Labor,
UK Labour,
US Democrats
Australian Liberals,
UK Conservatives,
US Republicans
Free Trading
Protectionist
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Mid-20th Century ‘Western’ politics

…then the ‘left’ was joined by a range of ‘progressives’
Progressive
Conservative
Australian Labor,
UK Labour,
US Democrats
UK Conservatives,
US Republicans
Globalist
Localist
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Late-20th Century ‘Western’ politics
$

…and then many ‘progressives’ went ‘global’…
Progressive
Conservative
Rudd & Gillard Labor
UK Conservatives,
US Republicans
Globalist
Localist
‘New Left’ ‘Right wing’
Post-Cold War ‘Western’ politics
$$
Blairite Labour
Clinton
Democrats
Return to a
Victorian ‘classic
liberal’ stance

…before a return to localism, on both the left and right
Progressive
Conservative
Globalist
Localist
‘New left’
(now old)
‘The Right’
(not-so-neocon)
Contemporary ‘Western’ politics
‘Alt-right’
(Corn Law Tories)
‘Old left’
(now renewed)

How do we interpret these many contradictory views?
Progressive
Conservative
Globalist
LocalistContemporary ‘Western’ politics
‘Old left’
(now renewed)
‘New left’
(now old)
‘Alt-right’
(Corn Law Tories)
‘The Right’
(not-so-neocon)

Politics is like a playground…
Swings
• The normal ‘back and forth’ of
democratic politics;
• In a long-term industry to not to
react to every ‘swing’ as can be
wasteful and isolating;
• The mining industry generally
over-reacts to the short-term.
Roundabouts
• Longer term structural shifts
that re-shape all sides of
politics;
• These are important to adapt to
as they will only reverse over
the long-term;
• The mining industry generally
misses these shifts.
Climbing frames
• Pre-determined elements of the
future that are yet to play out;
• You cannot avoid tackling these
issues, even if you want to;
• Often are recognised by the
industry, but nonetheless are
difficult to act upon.

…but we’re on the roundabout and the climbing frame!
Is the shift against ‘sustainable development’ a swing,
roundabout, or climbing frame?
• A climbing frame: difficult to envision a developed society
paying less attention to environmental and social conditions
e.g. rise of environmentalism in Chinese middle class.
Is the shift against ‘globalisation’ a swing,
roundabout, or climbing frame?
• A roundabout (maybe): a key aspect of ‘globalisation’ is
‘glocalism’ i.e. the strengthening of local identity and rights as
everything is placed in global context – the franchise
‘McDonaldisation’ of the world.
Image: Local style McDonald’s fish burger in
Singapore
Image: Environmental protests in China
Images: South China Morning Post, Wikipedia; Sources: Steger, 2013; The Economist, 2016; Sykes et al., 2017

…and mineral sands may be about to fall off!
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
A$millions
Mineral sands exploration expenditure in
Australia
Exploration Expenditure (real) for Mineral Sands
Mineral Sands as a Share of All Exploration Expenditure (real)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Global mineral sands discoveries by year
Giant Major Moderate Minor
Giant: >250Mt HMS
Major: > 50Mt HMS
Moderate: > 5Mt HMS
Small: <=5Mt HMS
(ilmenite eq.)
Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics; MinEx Consulting © 21 March 2018

The next wave of exploration should be under cover…
Image: UNCOVER; Data: MinEx Consulting © 21 March 2018
• But mineral sand
deposits are mainly
surficial…
• They will likely not
benefit from this
wave of innovation.

…but the mineral sands industry will have to go abroad
• It may be difficult to find
major new mineral
sands discoveries in
Australia;
• Mineral sand explorers
may be forced to abroad
to areas of increased
political risk;
• This may make ‘social
licence to operate’ even
more important than
elsewhere in the
minerals industry.
Data: MinEx Consulting © 21 March 2018
Global mineral sands discoveries, 1997-2017

THE ‘TECH BOOM’ & DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
Image: Shutterstock

Chinese growth is normalising & US growth is strong…
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
USA & China Real GDP Growth (%)
24% 15%
61%
Global share of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) 2016 (current US$)
USA China ROW
Data: World Bank
2017 estimate & 2018-20
Total: US$75.8 trillion

But, titanium dioxide’s China story may not be over…*
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
North America China
kgpercapita
Steel Use Intensity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
North America China
kgpercapita
Copper Use Intensity
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
North America China
kgpercapita
Titanium Use Intensity
Data: World Steel Association; International Copper Study Group; World Bank; Iluka
Ratio
~ 1.0 : 1.8
Ratio
~ 1.0 : 1.8
Ratio
~ 2.5 : 1.0
*Ask an expert – this is one of the things I’ll be asking them at this conference!

But this is the return of post-industrial ‘weightless’ economy
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
NASDAQ Composite (1998) ASX 200 (1998)
Data: Yahoo Finance; Images: Shutterstock

The mining industry is currently experiencing FOMO
Real estate
+8.9%
Healthcare
+21.9%
Finance
+5.8%
Mining
& Metals
-1.4%
Telecoms
-2.9%
Energy
-3.5%
I.T.
+10.8%
Utilities
0.8%
Consumer
Staples
2.3%
+12.9%
Consumer
Discretionary Industrials
+12.6%
Materials
2.3%
Data: ASX; NB: Indices are for ASX200, apart from ‘Mining & Metals’ which is based on ASX300. Materials, based on ASX200, includes Mining & Metals constituents of ASX200. Real estate based on REITS. Finance excludes A-REITs
ASX sector 5-year performance

…our margins will now come from better operation
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Index of US Open Pit Mine Costs vs Nominal
Copper Prices
US OP Mine Index (1999) Copper Price Index (1999)
Source: Trench & Sykes, 2014; Data: Costmine
In theory… In actuality…

Will the ‘tech boom’ make us more innovative?
Traditionally miners appear
to be “sustainers”…
Bigger,
Bigger,
Bigger…
…and now automated! …whilst the oil industry
seems a bit more disruptive?
Based on: Christensen, 1997; Images: miniature-construction-world.co.uk; The Telegraph; Shutterstock; mining-technology.com; stanford.edu; lancs.ac.uk

e.g. the future of the past is still the future!
…by 2135… there will hardly be any miners underground. Minerals
will be won either by robotized machinery or by in situ extraction of
the valuable ingredients. …biotechnology will be increasingly
employed in situ to convert metals into a readily soluble form.
Mineral processing would then become largely a matter of handling
solutions, thus obviating the need for crushing and grinding.”
- Arvi Parbo, former BHP Chairman, in 1986
The radically different view of the future of mining has been the same
for a long time. Why?
Source: Strauss, 1986

…as is the current mining industry innovation package
Incremental
e.g. mining
Proximal e.g.
petroleum
Radical e.g.
rest of world
The ‘fringe’
DronesRemote mining
Big data
Driverless
trucks
Diagram: Iluka; Images: Steele, 2003; Concurso Paleontologia; OZ Treasure; Miners Museum Cape Breton

Mining is already behind the digital curve…
Source: HBR

…the fringe is where radical innovation is occurring…
• Four key areas of science,
technology and innovation:
Biotechnology & genetics
Computer science & IT*
Nanotechnology
Neurology & psychology
Sources: Turney, 2010; Imperial Tech Foresight*Computer science, IT, data science, machine learning, AI etc., are proximal industries to mining so we are already aware of their potential – what about the others?

…but it can be hard to see the links and the reality
Source: Imperial Tech Foresight

…and we have abandoned our own innovation engine
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
A$Millions
Total Exploration Expenditure
(Australia)
Nominal Real
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
A$Millions
Total Exploration Expenditure
(Australia)
Greenfields Brownfields
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
A$permetredrilled
Unit Exploration Cost
(Australia)
Nominal Real
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

But before we get carried away, society has a view too…
Remember:
• Drones are militarily
technology used for spying
on & killing people!
• Big data is military
technology used to spy on
people…
• A.I. is the stuff of Hollywood
dystopia…
• Remote ‘lairs’ are what the
villains have!
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Attack of
the Drones
The Lone
Ranger
Local
Hero
Robinson
Crusoe
Scenarios for the adoption of remote exploration
technologies

…so we have to be careful not to create problems
• Which seems the most
plausible skill set to recruit in
the future?
• Compare it to the previous
slide…
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Data
science
Field
geology
Social science
& field geology
Social
science &
data science
Capabilities required for each of the remote
exploration technology scenarios
Image: Star Wars

We are already seeing a technology backlash (‘techlash’)
The techlash against
Amazon, Facebook
and Google—and
what they can do
- The Economist, 20 Jan 2018
Facebook says it
can't guarantee
social media is good
for democracy
- Reuters, 22 Jan 2018
James Damore,
Google engineer
fired for writing
manifesto on
women’s
‘neuroticism,’
sues company
- NBC, 8 Jan 2018
Facebook braces for
new E.U. privacy law
- The Washington Post, 29 Jan 2018
EU gives Facebook and
Google three months to
tackle extremist content
- The Guardian, 1 Mar 2018

Beware disruptive innovation in a concentrated industry!
Rutile (2017e)
Australia Sierra Leone
Ukraine Kenya
South Africa Other
Zircon (2017e)
Australia South Africa
China Indonesia
Mozambique Other
• Mining may be about to
undergo a rapid period of
technological innovation,
especially digital;
• However, in general highly
consolidated industries can
be slow adopters leaving
them open to disruption;
• Especially if there are
diversified players in the
sector which may be
exposed to more
competitive parts of the
mining industry…Top 5 Market Share: 94%
Herfindahl Index (2015): 0.31
(High concentration)
Top 5 Market Share: 36%
Herfindahl Index (2015): 0.22
(Moderate concentration) Data: USGS; Source: Christensen (1997)

CLIMATE CHANGE & THE ENERGY TRANSITION
Image: Shutterstock

What about the fifth technological driver?
Source: Imperial Tech Foresight

The world is entering the ‘energy transition’…
BATTERIES
• Power storage / averaging
• Portable energy
• Rechargeable (reduced
waste & energy efficient)
RENEWABLES
• Theoretically infinite
• Non-carbon emission
generating (at source)
• Distributed sources
Increased
energy
demand
Increased
environmental
focus
Increased
transport &
mobility
Image: Shutterstock

…creating new opportunities for some metals, but not all…
RENEWABLES METALS
Uranium
Rare earths (neodymium,
praseodymium &
dysprosium) – in the
generator magnet
Silicon & germanium;
Gallium-arsenide;
Copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS);
Cadmium-telluride
Lead-acid Alkaline (zinc-
manganese)
Lithium-ion (graphite,
manganese & cobalt)
Nickel-cadmium
/ zinc
Nickel metal
(lanthanum-rare
earth) hydride
Vanadium
redox
BATTERY METALS
Images: Shutterstock; Wikipedia; solarchoice
Note absence of titanium & zirconium!

However, the energy transition will also affect supply…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Surface Mine UG Mine Mill
Other
Steel
Equipment,
Tyres & Parts
Explosives &
Reagents
Fuel &
Electricity
Labour
Solar power at Sandfire
Resources Degrussa mine, WA
All electric underground mine
planned by Goldcorp at Borden,
Canada
Wind power for copper mines in
Chile owned by Barrick
‘Flexicycle’ using biodiesel power at
Pueblo Viejo, Dominican Republic
(Barrick)
Data: CostMine

…maybe helping drive mining underground
• …but not
mineral sands
• Surface mining
of mineral
sands means
may miss out
on the
underground
transition
• May leave it
vulnerable to
environmental
and socio-
political issues
Movement
towards all
electric
underground
mines
Focus on
greenhouse
gas reduction
Health concerns
surrounding diesel
emissions in
confined spaces
Improved
battery
technology
Volkswagen NOX
& SOX emission
scandal
Movement
towards
underground
mines
Focus on social &
environmental
footprint of
surface mining
Fewer surface
mineral deposits
awaiting
discovery
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALL
RENEWABLE ELECTRIC
UNDERGROUND MINING?
Improved
automation and
remote
technology
Safer
underground
mines

Titanium metal demand is not what it should be…
86%
7%
7%
Titanium minerals demand
(2012)
Pigment (TiO2) Metal Other
55%
29%
8%
8%
Titanium metal demand (2012)
Industrial Aerospace
Military Other
• Titanium metal is not widely used,
despite it being light and useful
because it is expensive;
• Aerospace is the main end-use for
metal, but it is CO2 intensive;
• In theory, aerospace biofuel
developments may stimulate the
air industry and titanium metal
demand;
• But cheaper, greener titanium
would be even better, as it could
then be used across multiple
sectors where ‘lightness’ is an
asset, e.g. transport, infrastructure,
energy…
Data: Iluka

…and we have seen metal markets transform before…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900
1909
1918
1927
1936
1945
1954
1963
1972
1981
1990
1999
2008
Growth in market size indices of
copper and aluminium 1900-2014
(1900 = 1)
Cu Index Al Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1900
1909
1918
1927
1936
1945
1954
1963
1972
1981
1990
1999
2008
copper and nickel 1900-2013
(1900 = 1)
Cu Index Ni Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
copper and uranium 1950-2013
(1950 = 1)
Cu Index U Index
Source: Sykes et al., 2016; Data: USGS

…but only when it all comes together!
Nickel
Discoveries in
Sudbury & New
Caledonia
Bulk open
pit mining
Flotation &
smelting
advances
Demand for
armour
Ability to handle
radiation
Uranium
Demand for nuclear
weapons
Demand for nuclear
power
Bulk mining
for very low
grade radium
Radium-uranium
discoveries in the
Congo
Aluminium
Bauxite
discoveries in
North America
Bayer and
Hall-Heroult
processes
Transportation
demand
Bulk open
pit mining
Source: Sykes et al., 2016; Images: Shutterstock

Titanium metal is too energy intensive, i.e. expensive
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Lead(furnace)
Steel
Lead(smelt)
Copper(smelt)
Zinc(smelt)
Zinc(electro)
Copper(leach)
StainlessSteel
Nickel(smelt)
Nickel(leach)
Aluminium
Titanium
MJ/Kg
Energy consumption during metals
production
• Titanium has a very high
strength & stiffness-to-weight
ratio in comparison to steel
making it far more useful… in
theory;
• However, it is very expensive
due to the energy consumed
during production drastically
affecting its price-performance
ratio in comparison to steel;
• The industry has long waited for
a breakthrough replacement to
the Kroll process that is less
energy intensive;
• Unfortunately, we’re still
waiting…
3%
17%
33%
12%
35%
Gross energy requirement
during titanium production
Mining & processing Smelting
Refining Reduction
Electrolysis
Data: Norgate et al., 2006; Gao et al., 2018

…and too polluting! But is a solution appearing?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Lead(blastfurnace)
Steel
Lead(smelting)
Copper(smelting)
Zinc(Imperial)
Zinc(electrolytic)
Copper(leaching)
StainlessSteel
Nickel(smelting)
Nickel(leaching)
Aluminium
Titanium
KgCO2eq./Kg
CO2 emissions during metals
production
• Renewable energy
would resolve CO2
intensity issues;
• Would this alone
stimulate titanium metal
demand?
• However, ‘super’ cheap
renewable energy (e.g.
near-free solar) would
resolve both cost and
environmental issues
and could be the market
growth trigger…
• …thus an alternative to
the Kroll process may
not be required.
4%
17%
9%
18%
52%
Electricity consumption
during titanium production
Mining & processing Smelting
Refining Reduction
Electrolysis
Data: Norgate et al., 2006; Gao et al., 2018

Thank You!
Contact details
John Sykes
Strategist
MinEx Consulting
Perth, Australia
Email: John.Sykes@MinExConsulting.com
Website: www.MinExConsulting.com
Copies of this and other similar
presentations can be downloaded
from our website

Acknowledgements
• I’d like to acknowledge the efforts of the Centre for Exploration Targeting scenario planning teams
whose work contributed to this presentation including Jon Bell, Leila Ben Mcharek, Rob Bills, Aida
Carneiro, Ivy Chen, Aaron Colleran, Tim Craske, Liz Dallimore, Deon deBruin, Edoaldo Di Dio, Joe
Dwyer, Mayara Fraeda, Nick Franey, Simon Gatehouse, Jeremie Giraud, Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez,
Chris Gonzalez, Isabel Granado, Matt Greentree, David Groves, Mike Haederle, Mike Hannington, Nick
Hayward, Amanda Hellberg, Paul Hodkiewicz, Amy Imbergamo, Constanza Jara, Caroline Johnson,
Heta Lampinen, Helen Langley, John Libby, Martin Lynch, Stuart Masters, Michael Mead, Adele Millard,
Joanne Moo, Suzanne Murray, Sandra Occhipinti, Ahmad Saleem, Ian Satchwell, Robert Sills, John
Southalan, David Stevenson, Narendran Subramaniam, Siobhan Sullivan, Daniel Sully, Janet
Sutherland, Marcus Tomkinson, Marnie Tonkin, Jan Tunjic, Will Turner, Stanislav Ulrich, Jessica Volich,
Wenchao Wan, Peter Williams, Marcus Willson and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali, as well as my PhD
supervision team: Allan Trench, Campbell McCuaig, Mark Jessell and Nico Thebaud, and finally
Richard Schodde at MinEx Consulting.

References
• Christensen, C., 1997, The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Harvard Business
Review Press: Brighton (MA), 225p.
• Gao, F., Nie, Z., Yang, D., Sun, B., Liu, Y., Gong, X., & Wang, Z., 2018, Environmental impacts analysis of titanium sponge
production using Kroll process in China, Journal of Cleaner Production, 174, pp 771-779.
• Norgate, T.E., Jahanshahi, S., & Rankin, W.J., 2007, Assessing the environmental impact of metal production processes,
Journal of Cleaner Production, 15, pp 838-848.
• Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press:
Oxford, 242p.
• Steger, M., 2013, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press: Oxford, 176p.
• Strauss, S.D., 1986, Trouble in the Third Kingdom: Minerals Industry in Transition, Mining Journal Books: London, 227p.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of
globalisation and sustainability in the long-term future of mining and exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology
Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, pp 239-256.
• Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals,
Applied Earth Science, 125:1, pp 3-20.
• Trench, A., & Sykes, J.P., 2014, Perspectives on Mineral Commodity Price Cycles and their Relevance to Underground
Mining, 12th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference, Adelaide (SA), 24-26 March, pp 19-31.
• Turney, J., 2010, The Rough Guide to The Future, Rough Guides: London, 376p.

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The investment climate for mining, exploration and mineral sands - Sykes - Mar 2018 - MinEx Consulting