Mining and renewable energy scenarios - Sykes - Jun 2017 - Centre for Exploration Targeting

1. John Sykes
Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
Business School, The University of Western Australia
Director, Greenfields Research Ltd, United Kingdom
Email: john.sykes@research.uwa.edu.au
The tailings pond of the Baotou
rare earths mine in China; Image
by D. Kanter in Bradsher (2010)

2. Scenarios Arts &
Humanities
Climate
John

3. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

4. • Attended Oxford Scenarios Programme in 2014 (Ramirez et al., 2014)
• Applied scenario planning in my PhD research with the working title:
“Using scenario planning to improve the integration of geological, technical, economic,
environmental, geopolitical and socio-political factors in minerals exploration management and
strategy”
• Essentially the aim is to understand the ‘future of minerals exploration’ and ergo the ‘future
of mining’;
• Generated four sets of scenarios, which integrated the previous sets at each stage:
– One set generated in an ‘individual’ scenario planning exercise, by myself;
– One set generated by a small group of minerals-focused PhD students;
– Two sets generated by a diverse group of experienced professionals and academics across
exploration, mining, engineering, commerce, law, environmental science, technology, sustainability,
anthropology, history, etc.
• All scenarios were generated using the ‘Oxford Scenario Planning Approach’ (Ramirez &
Wilkinson, 2016) throughout 2015 and 2016, with results now emerging.

5. • By definition, the
only geological
resources that get
developed into
mines are both
economic and
accessible;
• Mineral explorers
are therefore
searching for
undiscovered
resources, which
will be both
economic and
accessible in the
future.
Discovered and
economic but
inaccessible
Undiscovered and
inaccessible but
economic
Discovered
accessible
but
uneconomic
Undiscovered
uneconomic
but
accessible
Geological certainty
Economicviability
Discovered
accessible
and
economic
(Behind)
Discovered but
inaccessible and
uneconomic
Undiscovered and
inaccessible and
uneconomic
Undiscovered
but
accessible
and economic
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

6. • Two types of issue frustrate
access to economically desired
mineral deposits:
• Socio-political access: relating
to the sustainable development
paradigm, whereby economic
extraction can only occur if
society agrees it outweighs the
social & environmental costs;
• Geopolitical access: relating to
the strategic resources
paradigm, whereby access to
resource can be restricted due
to political or military conflict /
disagreement.
Important
uses, i.e.
‘economic
paradigm’
Accessibility type
2: Geopolitically
restricted
production, i.e.
‘strategic
resources’
paradigm
Accessibility type 1:
Environmentally / socially
restricted production, i.e.
‘sustainable resources’ paradigm
‘China produces 95%
of the rare earth
metals…’
‘The problem with
nuclear power is
not uranium
supply but waste
disposal…’
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

7. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

8. • Change in the minerals sector over the long-term can be substantial and complex;
• The example of the change in the copper mining industry during the late nineteenth and
early twentieth century demonstrates this;
• During this period the copper industry switched from primarily ‘artisanal’ underground
mining in the United Kingdom, first to larger scale mining in Chile and the United States,
and then to large-scale, mechanised open pit mining in the United States;
• This switch required (Lynch, 2002; Crowson, 2012; Sykes and Trench, 2014):
– the discovery of new ore bodies (e.g. Bingham Canyon):
– mining industry technological developments, such as flotation and improved smelting techniques;
– external technological developments, such as steam power, mechanisation, and dynamite;
– non-technical changes, such as improved public infrastructure in the USA, the advent of the
corporation and major financing houses, the adoption of free trade, and the advent of the ‘forward
contract’.
• Such multi-factor driven change is unpredictable: even the best experts of the day did not
see the change coming just a few years ahead (Lynch, 2002).

9. 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1775
1800
1825
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Cuoregrade(%)
Cornwall (UK) Average UK Average
Michigan (USA) Average USA Average
Western World Average World Average
Change from high grade underground
mining in UK to low grade open pits in USA
Further low grade copper
mining innovations
20th century copper
mining technology,
innovation & discovery
package
Steam power
The corporation
Better work
practices
SXEW
Low cost drilling
New geographies
Regime change
Major public
infrastructure
Porphyry
geological
model
Flotation
Improved smelting
& refining
Airborne
geophysics
Computation
Globalisation
Forward contracts
Free trade
Dynamite
Mechanisation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
ShareofGlobalCuMine
production
United Kingdom Chile USA Other “…in 1898.. Bingham Canyon… was
something of a joke… only barren quartz
rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody
could make money out of so little. …the
world’s most famous mining man [Chief
Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up
his nose. It was ridiculed by the most
respected mining journal of the day. …The
shovels started… in June 1906.”
Decline of UK mining,
rise of Americas
Resurrection
of Chilean
industry
Sources: Lynch, 2002; Schodde, 2010; Crowson, 2012; various personal
communications

10. • The example of the change in the aluminium industry over a similar period to that of the
copper industry, further confirms the substance and complexity of long-term change in the
minerals industry:
• During a this period, the aluminium industry went from a rare ‘specialty’ metal producing a
few hundred thousand tonnes annually to a major industrial commodity, with over 50 million
tonnes of aluminium now produced annually;
• This change required (Lynch, 2002; Sykes et al., 2016):
– the discovery of new bauxite deposits in North America;
– the advent of mechanised open pit mining (as with copper) and the development of the Bayer and
Hall-Heroult processes for converting bauxite into alumina and then into aluminium;
– Strong demand drivers from the military for transportation (which used a lot of the lightweight metal);
– Similarly strong demand from the commercial sector for transportation, especially the newly invented
car, as well as for non-corrosive household goods;
– A willingness by the United States and European governments to subsidise a ‘strategic’ but
nonetheless initially loss-making industry.

11. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Growth in market size indices of copper and aluminium 1900-2014
(1900 = 1)
Cu Index Al Index
Bauxite discoveries in
North America
Bayer and Hall-
Heroult processes Aviation
demand
Bulk open pit mining
Source: Sykes et al. (2016)

12. • The complexity involved with
change in the minerals sector
means that accurate ‘prediction’ is
not possible;
• As such, mineral explorers should
focus on ‘preparing’ for the future
and asking open questions about
what may be;
• In business strategy, this is known
as a ‘scenarios’ approach;
• Geologists may be more familiar
with this approach as ‘multiple
working hypotheses’ (Chamberlin,
1890). Geological certainty
Economicviability
Discovered
accessible
reserve
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Undiscovered
accessible
reserve
Discovered Undiscovered
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)
T. C. Chamberlin

13. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

14. • Scenarios participants were free to explore whatever subject they thought relevant to the future of
the minerals industry, as such each scenario set developed its own ‘theme’;
• The second scenarios set looked at the influence of the energy transition on the mining sector, and
the opportunities presented to the minerals sector by the energy transition;
• Three scenarios were developed along a ‘pathway to the future’ (Sykes et al., 2017):
– Discworld: Based on the Terry Pratchett novel, representing the current world, with ‘old industry’ reliant on
fossil fuels. There is an element of the unknown and not understood about this world. It may last for a few
more years, or many more, it is not clear.
– Wardrobe: Based on ‘The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe’. This is not a scenario, but represents a key
stage on the pathway to the future – a transition, but one which cannot be foreseen.
– Wonderland: Business, innovators, and entrepreneurs drive society through the energy transition in a
‘voluntary’ way. The transition is facilitated by strong, but permissive global institutions. The whole world
transitions, however, at an individual and corporate level, this is a very uncertain world, highly disruptive, and
ruthless.
– Nineteen Eighty-Four: Global conflict, and fossil fuel resource restrictions, force parts of the world (such as
the ‘West’) through the energy transition to maintain energy security. The world divides into some places
which have transitioned, and some which have not. However, at a corporate and individual level, this is a
stable, state-led world, with the minerals and renewables sectors a valuable part of the military-industrial
complex.

15. Wonderland
Nineteen
Eighty-Four
Left behind
High
tech
Discworld
NOW
The
Wardrobe
(An unknown
number of
economic
cycles to come)
Low tech
(Beyond
which is
the unknown)
‘Economic paradigm’
‘Sustainability paradigm’
‘Strategic paradigm’
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)

16. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

17. • The holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning, which focuses on interesting qualitative
analyses, rather than analysing factors quantitively straight away (Ramirez & Mannervik, 2016), helped create a
number of insights;
• Firstly, challenging some preconceptions and assumptions about mining in relation to sustainability and the green
economy, particularly the focus on ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ as a future raw materials supply strategy:
– For several critical commodities there is simply not enough ‘above ground’ stock, which has been previously
mined, for recycling to be a viable supply method alone;
– Developing a recycling-based or ‘circular economy’ is more challenging during a ‘transition’ as we recycle
‘products’ not ‘commodities’, for example:
• lead (an environmentally toxic metal) is currently ideal for the circular economy, as its majority use in car batteries means it
is easy to recycle around one product loop – in a future green economy it is thus a viable proposition that substantially
increased lead battery demand can be met with recycled lead supplies;
• However, the potentially important battery metal, lithium, has many existing uses, from many of which, such as ceramics
and pharmaceuticals, the metal is essentially ‘lost’ as it is used in tiny amounts, making recycling very difficult – as such in
a future green economy it is not a viable proposition that substantially increased lithium battery demand can be met via the
recycled lithium supply, and thus substantial increases in lithium mining would be required;
– Finally, landfill mining, which is where many of these critical metals have ended up, is probably as
environmentally and socially undesirable as ‘actual’ mining – metals that go into landfill are likely ‘lost’ from
the ‘above ground’ stock.

18. 1 100 10000 1000000 100000000
Gallium
Indium
Lithium
Cobalt
Silicon
Vanadium
Nickel
Rare Earths
Germanium
Copper
Manganese
Zinc
Selenium
Cadmium
Lead
Tellurium
Arsenic
Theoretical Total Available for Recycling (tonnes)
Data: USGS
-10 40 90 140
Gallium
Indium
Lithium
Cobalt
Silicon
Vanadium
Nickel
Rare Earths
Germanium
Copper
Manganese
Zinc
Selenium
Cadmium
Lead
Tellurium
Arsenic
Depletion Index for Material Available for Recycling (years)
Image: Guardian (Javad Tizmaghz)
45%
55%
Lead Production (2012)
Primary Secondary
Source: ILA
Image: C-Battery
37%
33%
10%
5%
5% 1%9%
Lithium Consumption (2015)
Batteries Ceramics & Glass
Lubrication Purification
Flux Aluminium
Other (inc. pharma)
Data: USGS

19. • The holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning (Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016)
also surfaced that climate change mitigation is complicated by the mining industry itself, which
inadvertently creates complex feedback systems making some appropriate climate change
mitigation ‘action’ more difficult than initially hoped;
• For example, increased scale wind turbines and hybrid car motors in the ‘West’ required higher
performance rare earth magnets, which resulted in increased mining of rare earths in China – the
dominant producer (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);
• However, not only does Chinese rare earths mining involve problematic local environmental and
labour practices, but processing rare earths is very energy intensive, such that overall carbon
emissions are higher than using lower quality ferrite magnets on a performance-impact basis
(Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);
• Overall, rare earth magnets not only did not deliver a better environmental outcome from the
perspective of climate change, but also added in extra difficulties relating to local environmental
and labour conditions associated with mining in China (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);
• Further it exposed ‘Western’ companies to geopolitical risk, as most rare earths are currently
sourced from one country – China (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015).

20. Energy
transition
requires
electric
vehicles Increased
mining of
rare earths
in China
Questionable
environmental and
social impacts
Switch
back to
ferric
magnets
required?
Electric vehicles
require better
motor magnets
Rare earth
magnets
are
technically
better
Source: Widmer
(2012); Widmer et
al., (2015)
Images: Bradsher
(2010); Reuters
(2015)

21. • Finally, the holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning (Ramirez & Wilkinson,
2016) also showed that whilst the energy transition is complicated to analyse, this does not mean
change is not possible;
• In line with previous observations about change in the mining sector being driven by multiple forces
(slides 9 & 11), it is possible to see potentially similar combinations of drivers coming together in
the present mining industry:
– Firstly, health concerns associated with diesel emissions in confined underground spaces (Jacobs et al., 2015), assisted by the
recent scandal associated with diesel car emissions at Volkswagen and other major car companies (Ewing, 2015) provides a
health and safety driver for electric powered underground mining;
– This is assisted with a environmentally focused movement towards non-point source carbon emitting electric vehicles; and
improvements in battery technology allowing more competitive electric vehicle operating times and performance;
– In turn, a movement towards underground mining is being driven by improved remote and automated technology, which makes
underground mining lower cost, but also improves safety by removing people from underground;
– In addition, the discovery and depletion of surface mineral deposits (Schodde, 2014) means mining may increasingly take place
at greater depths (requiring underground techniques), whilst underground mining itself also has a more limited social and
environmental footprint in comparison to open pit surface mining;
• All of these factors, could mean that the mining industry is heading away from diesel-driven open pit
mining towards renewables driven underground mining.

22. Movement towards
all electric
underground mines
Focus on greenhouse
gas reduction
Health concerns
surrounding diesel
emissions in
confined spaces
Improved battery
technology
Volkswagen
NOX & SOX
emission
scandal
Movement
towards
underground
mines
Focus on social &
environmental footprint
of surface mining
Fewer surface
mineral deposits
awaiting
discovery
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALL
RENEWABLE ELECTRIC
UNDERGROUND MINING?
Improved
automation and
remote technology
Safer
underground
mines
Lower cost
underground
mines
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Surface Mine UG Mine Mill
Other
Steel
Equipment, Tyres & Parts
Explosives & Reagents
Fuel & Electricity
Labour
Sources: Schodde (2014); Ewing (2015); Jacobs et al. (2015);
Data: Infomine (2016)

23. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

24. • The arts and humanities have played a crucial role in both interpreting the findings of the scenarios workshops and communicating
the insights effectively;
• Firstly, a series of famous books have been used as communicative tool (though originally the scenarios had a less coherent set of
names):
– Discworld, e.g. ‘The Colour of Magic’ (Pratchett, 1983);
– The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (Lewis, 1950);
– Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland (Carroll, 1865)
– Nineteen Eighty-Four (Orwell, 1949);
• These books can translate a ‘richer’ array of information more quickly, as recipients can more easily envision themselves in the
various scenarios, based on their existing knowledge of these well-read books;
• For example, for most audiences it is not required to describe the political and social structure of a ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’ (Orwell,
1949) scenario.
• The richer information conveyed encouraged a deeper critical analysis of the scenarios, hopefully leading to better insights, in the
same way that more creative and holistic insight and debate can be generated from an analysis of Tolstoy’s ‘War and Peace’ (1869),
than from statistics on Napoleon’s failed campaign in Russia, even if the latter are both more accurate and precise.
• For example, Isaiah Berlin’s essay ‘The Hedgehog and the Fox’ (1953) which examined War and Peace and created a classification
of writers and thinkers into two types has subsequently helped inform work on foresight by Philip Tetlock (2006), Clem Sunter (Ilbury
& Sunter, 2011), and Nate Silver (2012). Analyses of the facts and figures of Napoleon's campaign in Russia generally stick to
deductive conclusions about that campaign and Europe at that period in history itself, rather than wider inductions about the world
itself.

25. Wonderland
Nineteen
Eighty-Four
Discworld
NOW
The
Wardrobe
(Beyond which is
the unknown)
‘Economic paradigm’
‘Sustainability
paradigm’
‘Strategic paradigm’
Images: Wikipedia; Wikipedia; Pinterest; Pinterest

26. OLD
ECONOMY
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
INEQUITY
PROTECTION
ISM
BIG
MINING
ECONOMIC
PARADIGM
COAL
POWER
POLLUTION
WASTE
PETROL
CARS
BOOM &
BUST
BIG OIL
...with an unknown number
of economic cycles to come,
so you have to be good at
‘business as usual’
Images: Shutterstock; Wikipedia; Warwick University

27. GREEN
ECONOMY
SILICON
VALLEY
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
DISRUPTION
SUSTAINABILITY
PARADIGM VOLATILITY
CETA
DEAL
INNOVATION
PARIS
AGREEMENT
GLOBALISATION TESLA
Sustainability concerns
and innovation drive a
business-led energy
transition across all parts
of the world
Images: Shutterstock; Pinterest; Pinterest

28. NEW
WORLD
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
OLD
WORLD
MILITARY-
INDUSTRIAL
COMPLEX
TRUMP
STRATEGIC
PARADIGM
WAR
PROTECTIONISM
PUTIN
ISIS
BREXITISISCONFLICTGREEN
ECONOMY
Geopolitics and conflict forces a
government-led energy transition
in the fossil-fuel poor parts of the
‘Western’ world
Images: Shutterstock; Pinterest; CPA

29. • The arts also played a crucial role in interpreting the findings of the scenarios
workshops:
• Storyline construction and analysis helped the overall understanding of the structure of
the energy transition in each scenario;
• By using, Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘Shapes of stories’ (Eilam, 2012), it was shown that one
scenario (Wonderland) was a voluntary transition, similar to a ‘creation story’, whilst the
other scenario (Nineteen Eighty-Four) was a forced transition similar to a ‘man in a hole’
storyline;
• The latter ‘man in a hole’ storyline is more popular in ‘Western’ culture (e.g. Hollywood
movies), whereas the former ‘creation’ storyline is more popular in Eastern culture
(Eilam, 2012);
• This may help explain the differing approaches to climate change mitigation in the ‘East’
and ‘West’ (i.e. the latter requires a ‘disaster’ first – we may perhaps partly explain the
recent focus on extreme weather events and climate change) and also help smooth
communication about the issue between differing cultures.

30. WONDERLAND NINETEEN EIGHTY-FOUR
Eastern culture? Western culture?
Images: Eilam, 2012

31. • The arts and story telling also helped the scenarios recipients understand the ‘evolving’ nature of
storylines, and the crucial fact that when ‘in’ a story you cannot necessarily tell which way it is
going;
• Again, by using just the ‘shapes of stories’ provided by Kurt Vonnegut (Eilam, 2012), we can see
that firstly the two scenarios and their associated transition storylines (Wonderland – creation and
Nineteen Eighty-Four – man in a hole) may only be the beginning of more complex stories, evolving
with rises and falls over time, so a simple interpretation of these scenarios as a ‘forecast’ should be
avoided;
• And, that at this stage, essentially at the beginning of the energy transition storyline it is not
possible to tell what story we are in – firstly which scenario and storyline (Wonderland – creation
and Nineteen Eighty-Four – man in a hole)? And secondly, is the storyline for each scenario even
right? Is the Nineteen Eighty-Four scenario actually a ‘bad to worse’ story line, or even a ‘Which
way is up?’ storyline (Eilam, 2012)?
• The storyline analysis, borrowed from literary criticism provides a warning not to oversimplify
scenario analysis, but also that such analysis must be constantly updated.

32. WONDERLANDNINETEENEIGHTY-FOUR
Images: Eilam, 2012

33. • The link between stories and scenarios has been outlined by Freedman (2013); however, with some important differences:
– A story ends, whereas strategy is ongoing, best seen as a series of ongoing strategic decisions (where the next stage is likely affected by the
outcome of the current stage);
– A writer knows the whole storyline, whereas a strategist does not, and can only make interpretations as to what the storyline may be and where it
is heading;
– A writer is in control of all events in the story, whereas a strategist has to be prepared for unexpected events;
• These findings where emergent from the analysis of the scenarios using Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘shapes of stories’ (Eilam, 2012);
• Because unexpected events have to be incorporated into strategic planning, and because strategizing essentially has no end, Freedman (2013)
compares strategic planning to ‘soap opera’ rather than the three-act stories of book, film and theatre that are described by Kurt Vonnegut
(Eilam, 2012);
– Writers of a soap opera have an overall plan for the story over the current stage, but have to continually update it, periodically starting new stages
(linked to previous stages), and in addition have to incorporate interests arising from the outside world (such as a rising interest in equality
requiring a broadening character demography) as well as realities arising from within the cast (such as an actor falling ill who has to be
temporarily written out of the story).
• The balancing of ‘predict and control’ and ‘adaptive’ elements of strategy highlighted by Freedmen (2013) is described by van der Heijden (2005)
as ‘processual strategy’, with a strategic actor seeking to control parts of the ‘transactional environment’ over which they have some influence,
and adapting to issues arising from the ‘contextual environment’ which are beyond their control;
– By preparing for the unexpected (processual strategy) strategic actors can occasionally seize upon an opportunity, which aligns with their
competencies, to expand the transactional environment into the contextual environment and take control of a situation for temporary advantage
(Ramirez & van der Heijden, 2007);
– Scenario planning is a key tool for implementing processual strategy (van der Heijden, 2005; Ramirez and van der Heijden, 2007) as it allows
strategists to understand the changing nature of the contextual environment, and pursue new opportunities by adapting existing strategies or
generating new ones.

34. TRANSACTIONAL
ENVIRONMENT
COMPANY
CONTEXTUAL
ENVIRONMENT
Geo-politics
Finance
Commerce
Economics
Legislation
Demography
Ecology
Technology
Adapted from: Ramirez &
van der Heijden (2007)
Coronation Street;
Image: RSVP Magazine

35. • It was not just the arts (principally via storytelling) that played a crucial role in developing the
scenarios; the humanities, principally history, were also important;
• An understanding of history is required for an understanding of the future, though importantly this is
not in extrapolation of past to future, but in understanding the patterns of the past and the extremes
of events which can occur and remembering that such patterns and extremes could occur in the
future, along with similar, but entirely new ones (Ramirez et al., 2014);
• For example, in these scenarios the ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’ scenario is based a number of historical
events in the twentieth century including the a world divided into three blocks (as in the Cold War)
and an energy crisis as occurred in the 1970s, but this time with the blocks divided by religion
(Huntington, 2002), rather than political ideology, following the rise of a powerful Islamic Caliphate,
based on the present-day Islamic State (ISIS);
• The kind of clustering and clashing of apparently unrelated events from the past and present to
create new future scenarios is typical of the inductive approach to scenario planning (Ramirez et
al., 2014; Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016).

36. Sources: Enrich Wise; UC Davis; Stratfor

37. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation

38. • Returning to the original purpose of the scenarios workshops – to look at the future of
minerals exploration and seek new strategic options for mineral explorers, some new
opportunities were highlighted by the scenarios workshop (and re-confirmed by later
workshops):
1. Focusing on ‘new’ metals, not previously the focus of the mining industry, which may be
critical for future technologies, especially those relating to the energy transition (e.g.
renewables and battery technologies);
2. Trying to gain access to previously ‘socio-politically’ inaccessible areas, usually relating to
sustainability issues, by developing a strong social licence to operate;
3. Trying to gain access to previously ‘geopolitically’ inaccessible areas, again by developing
a strong ‘social licence to operate’;
• However, these strategies require a greater understanding of technology beyond the
mining and exploration sector, and of socio- and geopolitics, than is currently found in
the exploration sector, suggesting broader skills bases are required by mineral
explorers, and exploration teams and companies.

39. New
commodities
Behind socio-
political barriers
Behind geopolitical
barriers
New skills for
mineral explorers?
Images: Shutterstock

41. • Berlin, I., 1953. The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History, London: Weidenfeld &
Nicolson.
• Bradsher, K., (2010), After China’s Rare Earth Embargo, a New Calculus, The New York Times, 29th October:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/business/global/30rare.html
• Carroll, L., 1865. Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland. London: Macmillan.
• Chamberlin, T.C., 1890. The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses. Science, 15, 366, pp. 92-96.
• Eilam, M., 2012. The Shapes of Stories: A Kurt Vonnegut Infographic, Maya Eilam Art & Design:
http://www.mayaeilam.com/2012/01/01/the-shapes-of-stories-a-kurt-vonnegut-infographic
• Ewing, J., 2015, Volkswagen says 11 million cars worldwide are affected by diesel deception, The New York
Times, 22 September: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/23/business/international/volkswagen-diesel-car-
scandal.html
• Freedman, L., 2013. Strategy: A History. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Guardian, The, 2011, Landfill life: Indonesians make a living from dump – in pictures, 28 September:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2011/sep/28/indonesia-landfill-mountain-scavengers-in-pictures
• Huntington, S.P., 2002. The Clash of Civilizations: And the Remaking of the World Order. New York: Simon &
Schuster.
• Ilbury, C., & Sunter, C., 2011. The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action. Cape Town: Human & Rousseau.
• Infomine, 2016, Cost Indexes and Metal Prices. Mining Cost Service, July, Spokane Valley, WA.
• International Lead Association, 2017, Lead Production & Statistics: http://www.ila-lead.org/lead-facts/lead-
production--statistics

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