Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements
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Opportunities are not equal Some nearer ‘break out’ than others fewer solutions required Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e. technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
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Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements
- 1. Australia’s advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements Allan Trench & John Sykes The University of Western Australia
- 2. A visionary whose vision is still to arrive “…by 2135… there will hardly be any miners underground. Minerals will be won either by robotized machinery or by in situ extraction of the valuable ingredients. …biotechnology will be increasingly employed in situ to convert metals into a readily soluble form. Mineral processing would then become largely a matter of handling solutions, thus obviating the need for crushing and grinding.” • Arvi Parbo, in S.D. Strauss, 1986, Trouble in the Third Kingdom, p210 This radically different view of the future of mining has been the same for a long time. Why? 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 2 Sir Arvi Parbo (1926-2019) Alcoa / Western Mining / BHP Portrait by Joe Greenberg (2001)
- 3. A brief history of minerals use Australia’s advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 3
- 4. Stone Age tools to… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 4 160,000 - 5,000 years ago Damaidi Rock Art, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Northwest China 7,000-8,000 years ago Source: http://history.cultural- china.com/en/56History9528.html Stonehenge, Southern England 4,000-5,000 years ago Map: Wikipedia
- 5. …Bronze Age tools, metallurgy & trade… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 5 5,000 - 3,000 years ago Map: University of Maryland Images: Wikipedia / Shutterstock Pyramids of Giza Egypt 2,686-2,181 BCE Late Bronze Age Trade Routes of the Mediterranean Houmuwu Ding Shang Dynasty, China 1,300-1,046 BCE
- 6. …and Iron Age smelting & empires… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 6 1,000BCE – 500AD Terracotta Warriors Qin (Ching) Dynasty, China 221-206 BCE Iron Age Trans-Eurasian Trade Routes Map: Dorling Kindersley “Roman Iron Armour” in the Film: Gladiator
- 7. The Iron Age ‘Periodic Table’ 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 7 C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb S Hg Sn
- 8. Then Renaissance mining & ‘exploration’… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 8 1300-1750AD Images from De Re Metallica by Agricola, 1556 Marco Polo visited Kublai Khan of Yuan Dynasty China ~1275 Map of Voyages of Discovery to 1610 Map: World Maps Online Image: Wikipedia
- 9. …but still the same ‘Periodic Table’ 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 9 Cu Antiquity Zn Classical, Medieval & Renaissance C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb As S Zn Hg Sn
- 10. Industrial Age steel, coal & gold fever… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 10 Steamship advert for Californian gold rushes (1849) Australian gold miners (1875) 1750-1914AD Image: Schmoop Bessemer converter at Station Square, Pittsburgh “Iron and Coal” by William Bell Scott (1855-60) Images: Wikipedia Image: State Library of New South Wales
- 11. …and discovery of a different type! 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 11
- 12. From this… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 12 Cu Antiquity Zn Classical, Medieval & Renaissance C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb As S Zn Hg Sn
- 13. …to this… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 13 Cu Antiquity Zn Classical, Medieval & Renaissance C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb Cr As S Zn Hg Sn Sb Al Enlightenment & Industrial Age H Li Na K Rb Cs La Ac Be Mg Ca Sr Ba Sc Y Ra Ti Zr Hf V Nb Ta Mo W Mn Ru Os Co Rh Ir Ni Pd Pt Cd B Al Ga In Tl Si Ge N P Bi O Se Te Po F Cl Br I He Ne Ar Kr Xe Rn Ce Th Pr Nd U Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu Pa Re
- 14. …and this! 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 14 Cu Antiquity Zn Classical, Medieval & Renaissance C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb Cr As S Zn Hg Sn Sb Al Enlightenment & Industrial Age H Li Na K Rb Cs La Ac Be Mg Ca Sr Ba Sc Y Ra Ti Zr Hf V Nb Ta Mo W Mn Ru Os Co Rh Ir Ni Pd Pt Cd B Al Ga In Tl Si Ge N P Bi O Se Te Po F Cl Br I He Ne Ar Kr Xe Rn Ce Th Pr Nd U Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu Pa Pu Modern Age (1937 CE-present) Fr Rf Db Sg Tc Re Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh At Uus Uuo Pm Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr
- 15. Minerals use in the Modern Era Australia’s advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 15
- 16. …Fuelled by Chinese industrialisation 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 16 History of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP): % of Total in $1990 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Source: The Economist; Data: Angus Madison
- 17. Globalisation and transport… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 17
- 18. …communications & high technology… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 18
- 19. …and environmental concerns 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 19 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Atmospheric CO2 Levels (ppm)
- 20. …including light alloys 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA Images: Shutterstock & Images of the Elements 20
- 21. …electronics… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA Images: Shutterstock & Images of the Elements 21
- 22. …renewable & battery metals (& uranium?) 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA RENEWABLES METALS Uranium Rare earths (neodymium, praseodymium & dysprosium) – in the generator magnet Silicon & germanium; Gallium-arsenide; Copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS); Cadmium-telluride Images:Shutterstock;Wikipedia; solarchoice Lead-acid Alkaline (zinc- manganese) Lithium-ion (graphite & cobalt) Nickel- cadmium / zinc Nickel metal (lanthanum- rare earth) hydride Vanadium redox BATTERY METALS
- 23. However, of all these elements… 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 23 Cu Antiquity Zn Classical, Medieval & Renaissance C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb Cr As S Zn Hg Sn Sb Al Enlightenment & Industrial Age H Li Na K Rb Cs La Ac Be Mg Ca Sr Ba Sc Y Ra Ti Zr Hf V Nb Ta Mo W Mn Ru Os Co Rh Ir Ni Pd Pt Cd B Al Ga In Tl Si Ge N P Bi O Se Te Po F Cl Br I He Ne Ar Kr Xe Rn Ce Th Pr Nd U Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu Pa Pu Modern Age Fr Rf Db Sg Tc Re Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh At Uus Uuo Pm Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr
- 24. …we only use a few in ‘large’ amounts 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 24 Everything else: US$502 Billion 1. Oil: US$1.75 Trillion 2. Coal: US$499 Billion 4. Gas: US$363 Billion 3. Cement: US$433 Billion 5. Iron Ore: US$185 Billion 6. Gold: US$116 Billion 7. Aluminium: US$111 Billion 8. Copper: US$105 Billion
- 25. It is not yet the ‘Rise of the Esoteric Metals’ 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Market size of Base, Precious & Esoteric Metals over the last 100 years in 2012 dollars (billions) Antimony Electronic Metals (Bi, Ga, Ge, In, Se & Ta) Light Metals (Mg & Ti) Battery Metals (Cd, Co, Li & V) Precious Metals (Au, Ag & PGMs) Base Metals (Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sn & Zn) 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1913 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 Data: USGS Slid e 25 of
- 26. Past dramatic change in minerals use Australia’s advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 26
- 27. Aluminium: the 20th Century Metal 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Market size of the Base Metals over the last 100 years in 2012 dollars (millions) Copper Tin Zinc Lead Aluminium Nickel 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1913 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 Data: USGS
- 28. How to use a lot of metal For a metal to be mined in large volumes it must: 1. Be relatively abundant in the crust 2. Geologically concentrate into mineral deposits 3. Be easy to mine the ore from the ground 4. Be easy to extract the metal from the ore 5. Have substantial demand 6. Have diverse demand 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA DISCOVERY SUPPLY DEMAND Based on: Krishnamurthy & Gupta (2004)
- 29. Similar stories for nickel and uranium 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1900 1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012 Growth in market size indices of copper and nickel 1900-2013 (1900 = 1) Cu Index Ni Index 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Growth in market size indices of copper and uranium 1950-2013 (1950 = 1) Cu Index U Index 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA Slid e 29 of Data: USGS
- 30. What is the aluminium of the 21st Century? Australia’s advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 30
- 31. Potential and lack of constraints required 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA Final market size potential Lack of discovery, supply & demand constraints on the market High potential and few constraints Low potential but few constraints High potential but many constraints Low potential and many constraints Source:Sykes et al.,2016a
- 32. How is Australia positioned for future metals use? Australia’s advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging elements 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 32
- 33. …2019 Team Australia.. 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA
- 34. …2035 Team Australia? 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA
- 35. Sinclair Cesium Zone Deposit, WA 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 35
- 36. Opportunities are not equal • Some nearer ‘break out’ than others – fewer solutions required • Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others • Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others • Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e. technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA
- 37. References • J. P. Sykes, J. P. Wright & A. Trench (2016) Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125:1, 3-20, DOI: 10.1080/03717453.2015.1122274 • J. P. Sykes, J. P. Wright, A. Trench & P. Miller (2016) An assessment of the potential for transformational market growth amongst the critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125:1, 21- 56, DOI: 10.1080/03717453.2015.1104055 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA 37
- 38. ..but some also have more growth potential 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA
- 39. ..but some also have more growth potential 3 May 2019 AMIRA Ideas Factory, Perth, WA