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Transportation and Building Electrification
- 1. Nov. 30 - Dec. 3 Virtual EventDecember 3 #gridedge
- 2. 1 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Thank You to Our Sponsors Gold Sponsors Signature Sponsor Platinum Sponsors Silver Sponsor Emerging Tech Sponsor #gridedge
- 3. 2 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com / Meet Have an all access pass? Join the conversation in our virtual community via Swapcard Housekeeping 2_Day3Closing / Ask Submit your questions via the Q&A tab and upvote any you see come through that you like / Support Looking for technical help? Chat with the chatbot on the session page to get in touch with the events team / Replay All slides and session recordings will be emailed to attendees at the end of the week / Feedback We hope you’ll complete the feedback survey sent out after the event / Social Use #gridedge to be featured on the event social wall
- 4. 3 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com / The Promise of Smart Technologies Today’s Breakout Sessions 2_Day3Closing 2:45pm – 3:15pm EST Hosted by: / Building the Utility of the Future 4:50pm – 5:20pm EST Hosted by:
- 5. 4 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com // December 10th Upcoming Virtual Event Expanding Corporate Adoption of Renewables
- 6. 5 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com WoodMac Research Spotlight: Transportation and Building Electrification Fei Wang #gridedge Wood Mackenzie Research Manager Wood Mackenzie Principal Analyst, Transportation Electrification Ram Chandrasekaran
- 7. 6 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com woodmac.comTrusted Intelligence woodmac.com Fei Wang and Ram Chandrasekaran Transportation and Building Electrification Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020
- 8. 7 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Shares of emissions from “buildings and cars” increase over time A decarbonizing power sector makes electrification an effective tool to reduce emissions in other sectors U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer 27% 26% 27% 28% 33% 33% 29% 27% 20% 20% 22% 22% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 2005 2010 2015 2018 Transportation Electricity generation Industry Agriculture Residential and commercial
- 9. 8 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Almost 60 U.S. utilities announced emission reduction targets since 2019 Utilities with pledges have varied ownership structures 33 utilities with 100% carbon or emissions free electricity, carbon neutral/net-zero carbon and net-zero emissions goals Source: Wood Mackenzie Grid Edge Service; Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) Carbon or emissions free electricity: Focusing on CO2 emissions only or GHG emissions and not allowing offsets Carbon neutral or net-zero carbon: focusing on CO2 emissions only and allowing offsets Net-zero emissions: focusing on GHG emissions (CO2, methane, NOx, etc) and allowing offsets
- 10. 9 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 PoundsofCO2emissionsper1MMBtu ofheatconsumed Carbon intensity of power generation (tons of CO2 per MWh) Natural gas boilers or furnaces Air-source heat pumps High efficiency levels make heat pumps far less carbon-intensive than gas heating CO2 emissions from using heat pumps will continue to decrease, as power sector integrates more renewables Comparison of CO2 emissions from natural gas heating and heat pumps Source: Wood Mackenzie Grid Edge Service Average carbon intensity (slightly higher than an all-natural gas fleet) of U.S. generation in 2018 Carbon intensity of an all-coal fleet
- 11. 10 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com California municipalities with pro-electrification building codes States’ positions on banning gas hookups in new buildings Source: Sierra Club; Wood Mackenzie Grid Edge Service Pro- and anti-electrification policies are emerging in more U.S. states in 2020 Tensions between electricity and gas providers will determine all-electric infrastructure readiness for years to come Includes municipalities that have introduced gas bans Adopted state legislation to block natural gas bans Introduced legislation to block natural gas bans
- 12. 11 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Analysis of heat pumps’ impact on load by ISONE Winter and summer peak monthly energy in Massachusetts Source: Independent System Operator New England (ISONE); Wood Mackenzie Grid Edge Service; Wood Mackenzie North America Power Service Transmission and distribution planning begins to grapple with electrification Building electrification will make some regions winter peaking, while bringing more grid-interactive resources 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 January July January July January July January July GWh ISONE Mass Central ISONE Mass SE ISONE Mass West 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 13. 12 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com 27% 26% 27% 28% 33% 33% 29% 27% 20% 20% 22% 22% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 2005 2010 2015 2018 Transportation Electricity generation Industry Agriculture Residential and commercial U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector Transportation fuel demand by type Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer Shares of emissions from “buildings and cars” increase over time A decarbonizing power sector makes electrification an effective tool to reduce emissions in other sectors Road passenger transport 49% Road freight transport 27% Shipping 11% Aviation 13%
- 14. 13 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Adoption of EVs cannot be viewed as deterministic; their end-user differentiation is non-existent Climate policy and decarbonization goals are the primary drivers for world wide adoption of EVs 1. Relative advantage 2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability Real-world adoption curves of select technologies Source: Caroli.org; Roger’s diffusion theory
- 15. 14 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Regulations Supply Demand EV share of sales in top 3 markets Source: Wood Mackenzie EV Service In the short to medium term, adoption will be driven by emissions regulations Powertrain costs of EVs will be competitive in the medium term, but not cheaper than ICEs until much later 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (H1) EVshare US China Western EU Countries regulate for cleaner cars from automakers and the automakers find a way to sell them
- 16. 15 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Source: Wood Mackenzie Commercial EV adoption has fewer barriers and will be driven by cost rather than emissions regulations Issue Retail consumer Commercial fleet Vehicle use case considered for purchase Coverage for 95th percentile use as exact usage varies day to day Coverage for standard use case as driving habits are well known Range anxiety Daily miles driven can vary greatly and places without charging station can be a possible destination Ability to plan route well in advance and daily miles driven is well known Charging infrastructure availability May not have dedicated parking spot at home/work with regular access to charging station Can install dedicated charging station at designated parking location as well as charging plan Vehicle time of use Access at unplanned times is important (such as need to drive to hospital in the middle of the night) Time of use is planned ahead of schedule Cost of ownership Total cost of ownership accurately calculated by few, price of purchase (or monthly payment) takes precedence Total cost of ownership often part of business plan and is estimated carefully
- 17. 16 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com US, EU and China all projected to top 80% EV sales share, but they each take their own path • Driven by stringent regulations, the EU will achieve a high sales share quickly • However, several member states are likely to be left behind and play catch up • The last 15% of market share will be hardest to achieve • The US driver by economics rather than environmentalism, will lag behind in the next decade • But sales share will accelerate once powertrain price parity is achieved at the manufacturer level • China driven by economic security and technology dominance will electrify more uniformly • It is the only market with EVs at all price segments Europe** 2019 2035 2050 Light-duty EV share 3.5 % 56% 86% Commercial EV share 1% 62% 75% US 2019 2035 2050 Light-duty EV share 2% 29% 85% Commercial EV share 0.5 % 42% 60% China 2019 2035 2050 Light-duty EV share 5% 38% 81% Commercial EV share 9% 43% 68% **Note: Europe category includes the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Source: Wood Mackenzie EV Service
- 18. 17 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com Q&A
- 19. 18 Grid Edge Innovation Summit 2020 woodmac.com We provide commercial insight and access to our experts leveraging our integrated proprietary metals, energy and renewables research platform. Acquired Genscape, MAKE and Greentech Media (GTM) Leaders in the energy transition and cross-commodities Over 600 sector-dedicated analysts and consultants globally Located close to customers and industry contacts Wood Mackenzie offices Wood Mackenzie offices with Power & Renewables presence About Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie is ideally positioned to support consumers, producers and financers of the new energy economy.
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