1. The Millennium Project
and the
Global Futures Intelligence System
October 14, 2013
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project

2. … May become a TransInstitution
The Millennium
Project

3. Purposes of the Millennium Project
• Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking
about the future
• Make that thinking available through a variety of media for
consideration in
• policymaking
• advanced training
• educational curricula
• public education
• Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom
about potential futures

4. 49 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

5. Scanning Framework: 15 Global Challenges–Our Agenda
How can sustainable development be achieved for all
How can sustainable development be achieved for
1
all while addressing global climate change?
while addressing global climate change?
2
HowHow can everyone have sufficient clean water
can everyone have sufficient clean water
without conflict?
without conflict?
15
How How can ethical considerations become moremore
can ethical considerations become
3
How can population growth and resources be
Howcan population growth and resources be
routinely incorporated into global decisions?
routinely incorporated into global decisions?
brought into balance?
brought into balance?
4
14
How can genuine democracy emerge from
How can genuine democracy emerge
How can scientific and technological
How can scientific and technological
authoritarian regimes?
from authoritarian regimes?
breakthroughs be accelerated improve
breakthroughs be accelerated to to improve
the human condition?
the human condition?
5
How can policymaking be made
How can policymaking be made more
13
sensitive to global global long-term
HowHow can growing energy demands
can growing energy demands be
more sensitive to long-term
perspectives?
met safely and efficiently?
be met safely and efficiently?
perspectives?
How can transnational organized crime
12
How be stopped from becoming
networks can transnational organized crime
networks be stopped from becoming
more more powerful and sophisticated global
powerful and sophisticated global
enterprises?
enterprises?
6
How can the global convergence of of
How can the global convergence
information and communications
information and communications
technologies work for everyone?
technologies work for everyone?
7 How can ethical market economies be
How can the changing status of of
How can the changing status
How can ethical market economies be
women improve the human
women improve the human condition?
encouraged to help reduce the gap
encouragedto help reduce the gap between
rich and rich
condition?
between poor? and poor?
How How can shared values and new security
can shared values and new security
10
8
How can the threat new and reemerging
strategies reduce ethnicconflicts, terrorism, and How can the threat ofof new and reemerging
strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism,
the use weapons of mass mass destruction? diseasesand immune microorganisms be
diseases and immune microorganisms be
and theuse ofof weapons of destruction?
reduced?
reduced?
How can the capacity to decide be improved as
9
How can the capacity to decide be improved as the
the nature of of work institutions change? change?
nature work and and institutions
11

6. Scanning/up-dates/improvements for
15 Global Challenges each year
1. Input from Millennium Project’s Global Futures intelligence System
2. Feedback from Millennium Project’s special studies – hidden hunger, natural
coastal zone infrastructures, education, energy, etc.
3. Staff and Interns scanning other’s research and the Internet
4. Experts are asked to review last year’s text.
5. The 15 Global Challenges are on-line for public input in our main MP website
6. Regional input is requested from 49 Node Chairs around the world
7. Feedback is invited via Millennium Project email lists
8. Conferences, seminars, publications are monitored
9. Feedback from international travel and audiences like this
10.Then distilled for patterns and data double checked by staff

7. Futures Research Methodology 3.0
39 Chapters
1,300 pages
Largest collection of
Internationally peerreviewed methods to
explore the future ever
assembled in one source

8. 29 Variables Scanned for the State of the
Future Index (SOFI) - World Report Card)
Where we are winning
•Improved water source (% of population access)
•Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+
•School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
•Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population in least
developed countries)
•Population growth (annual %) (A drop is seen as good for some
countries, bad for others)
•GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
•Physicians (per 1,000 people)
•Internet users (per 100 people)
•Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
•Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
•Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)
•GDP per unit of energy
•Major Armed Conflicts deaths >1,000
•Food availability (cal/cap)
Where there is little change
•Prevalence of HIV, total (% of pop. ages 15-49)
•Homicide Rate
•R & D expenditure (% of GDP)
Where we are losing:
•CO2 emissions (kt)
•Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
•People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age- 15 largest
countries)
•Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)
•Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)
•Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries)
•People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)
•Refugee population by country or territory of asylum
Where there is uncertainty
•Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons
(number)
•Population in Countries that are Free (percent of total global
population)
•Forest area (% of land area)
•Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income
•Number of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases

9. Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration
and synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from
feedback
• to produce just in time knowledge
for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone.

10. An Application of Collective Intelligence:

11. Menu for each Global Challenge & Groups
1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies
2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future
3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable)
4. Scanning (annotated, rated information)
5. On-going Real-Time Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments
6. Public comments
7. Discussion groups
8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models
9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos
10. Updates – all edits
11. Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions

14. For further information
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org
www.StateoftheFuture.org
www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)