2. 大綱(Agenda)
• 什麼是專案融資 ?(What is Project Finance ?)
• 架構專案融資交易(How to Structure a Project Finance Transaction)
• 專案評估(Project Evaluation)
• 風險評估(Risk Assessment)
• 經濟分析(Project Economics)
• 財務模型(Financial Modeling)
• 投資架構(Investment Structure)
• 管理主體(Management Entity)
• 項目發起人(Sponsors)
• 融資主體(SPV)
• 擔保架構(Security Arrangement)
• 項目合同協議 (Project Contracts)
• 信用擔保機制 (Credit Enhancement Mechanisms)
• 項目資產收益 (Project Cash Flow and Assets)
• 台灣離岸風電專案融資現況(Latest Status Development for Taiwan OWF
Projects)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 2
3. 什麼是專案融資(Project Finance)?
• Peter Nevitt – “Project Financing”一書中,對專案融資有如下
的定義:
• “A financing of a particular economic unit in which a lender is
satisfied to look initially to the cash flows and earnings of that
economic unit as the source of funds from which a loan will be
repaid and to the assets of the assets of the economic unit as
collateral for the loan.”
• Peter Nevitt的專案融資定義:
• 現金流量作為還款來源,只講了一半
• 忽略信用擔保機制(Credit Enhancement)的重要性,不低於現金流量
• 沒有強調項目、各個利害關係人之間合約重要性,特別是專案融資
的信用擔保條款(Credit Enhancements)機制,必須以項目合約白紙黑
字,規範各個利害關係人
• 對銀行而言,項目合約協議(Project Contracts),比現金流量更重要
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 3
26. Project Development and Project Finance Process
投資評估/
可行性研究
與開發
項目開發與
融資
設計 施工 試運轉 營運與維護
Development Phase Construction Phase
Operation
Phase
Financial Closing Commercial Operation Date (COD)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 26
27. Scope of Construction Contract
設計 施工 試運轉
Design
Contractor
Construction
Contractor
Project Management (PM)
Construction Management (CM)
Design + PM
Design + Construction Contractor
EPC, Turnkey Contract
Sponsors?
Professional Operators?
Others?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 27
30. Construction Contract Structure
- Why Completion Guarantee Matters
SPV Sponsors
Turbine Supply
Contract
Foundation
Design Contract
Foundation
Installation
Array Cable
Supply Contract
Array Cable
Installation
Export Cable
Supply Contract
Export Cable
Installation
Grid Connection
Installation
Vessel
others
Sponsors = EPC ?
Who issues Completion Guarantee ?
Cost overrun、Project delay、
Performance ?
Who is Responsible for Construction ?
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and Profit ?
Scope of Work ?
Banks assume construction risks?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 30
31. Construction Contract Structure
- Why Completion Guarantee Matters
SPV
Turbine Supply
Contract
Foundation
Design Contract
Foundation
Installation
Array Cable
Supply Contract
Array Cable
Installation
Export Cable
Supply Contract
Export Cable
Installation
Grid Connection
Installation
Vessel
Others
Sponsors
Who issues Completion Guarantee ?
Cost overrun、Project delay、
Performance ?
Who is Responsible for Construction ?
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and Profit ?
Scope of Work ?
Banks assume construction risk ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 31
32. O&M Contract Structure
SPV
Professional O&M Provider
OR
Sponsors
Turbine O&M Contractor
BOP O&M Contractor
Spare Parts Suppliers
Others
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and Profit calculation ?
Reversion? 80/20, 50/50
Scope of Work ?
Arm - Lenghth Deal if sponsors is the operator ?
Will sponsors assume operation risks ?
Operation cost overrun ?
Banks assume operation risks ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 32
33. O&M Contract Structure
SPV
Turbine O&M Contractor
BOP O&M Contractor
Spare Parts Suppliers
Others
Professional O&M Provider
OR
Sponsors/Technical Assistant
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and profit calculation ?
Reversion ? 80/20, 50/50
Scope of work ?
Will Sponsors assume operation risks ?
Are sponsors technical assistant ONLY ?
Operation cost overrun ?
Banks assume operation risks ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 33
54. European NCF v. Taiwan NCF
• May have different measuring point
• Measuring point
• European : Offshore Substation
• Taiwan : Onshore Substation
• Euro NCF > TW NCF
• Euro NCF may be similar to TW GCF (Gross Net Capacity Factor)
• TW NCF / TW GCF = 82 ~ 83% derived from Taipower’s
feasibility study of the phase 2 OWF project
• Please refer to the following for more detailed information:
「台電的離岸風電發電量與售電量的估算公式」
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/1364982076938359
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 54
64. • DS + OM + ER = PR
• PR: Project Revenue = 項目收入
• DS(Debt Service) = 貸款的本金與利息的償還
• OM(Total Operation and Maintenance Expenses) = 操作維護費用
• ER(Equity Return) = 自有資金的投資報酬
• PR >= DS + OM + ER
• 殺頭的生意有人做,賠錢的生意沒人做
投資基礎設施的基本計算公式
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 64
65. Borrowing Capacity (Debt Size)
• Project revenue可以支撐的項目最高可貸款金額
• Required parameters:
• Project revenue (PR), e.g. PR at P90 for OWF project
• Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)
• Total operation and maintenance expenses (OM)
• Borrowing Capacity = (PR – OM) / DSCR
• For more information, please refer to:
「達德能源(wpd)允能離岸風電項目財務分析模型之三 – wpd允能離岸
風電項目(708MW)最高可貸款金額 (Debt Size for wpd’s Yunlin Offshore
Wind Project – Part 3)」
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/1569571429812755
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 65
66. Debt Service Coverage Ratio (min. DSCR)
• 依據台灣獨特風險,銀行決定合理的DSCR,而不是歐洲人
怎麼講就怎麼做
• 如果國內銀行要承擔cost overrun、project delay等的construction risks、
operation risks,DSCR當然要比歐洲高
• P90 with DSCR = 1.3 for OWF project
• 歐洲人最愛
• 不適合台灣,DSCR = 1.3太低
• 建議DSCR 1.5 ~ 1.8
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 66
67. Debt Service Coverage Ratio (min. DSCR)
• 過去的許多專案融資的案例,可以歸納岀下列的經驗法則:
(Please refer to Page 273 of “Principles of Project Finance” by E. R.
Yescombe.)
• 1.2 for an infrastructure project with a Project Agreement with no
usage risk (e.g., a public hospital or prison)
• 1.3 for a power or process plant project with an Offtake Contract
• 1.4 for an infrastructure project with usage risk (e.g., a toll road or
mass transit project) – Project Revenue is uncertain which is similar
to OWF project
• 1.5 for a natural resources project – Project Revenue is uncertain
which is similar to OWF project
• 2.0 for a merchant power plant project with NO Offtake Contract or
price hedging
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 67
68. Debt / Equity Ratio
• Debt/Equity ratio一般會考慮以下因素:
1. 項目產生的現金流量與技術、操作營運風險
2. 項目擔保機制是否足夠
3. 投資開發商信用是否能夠履行項目擔保合約
4. Sponsors的技術、財務能力與經驗實績
• 最後由開發商與銀行議定
• 台灣的OWF projects是否能夠滿足上述3個條件?
• 82/18、80/20、75/25風險都太高
• 70/30、65/35比較適當
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 68
69. Debt / Equity Ratio
• 過去的專案融資的案例,從融資機構的角度與觀點,可以
歸納岀下列的經驗法則:(Please refer to Page 285 of
“Principles of Project Finance” by E. R. Yescombe.) –
• 90:10 for an infrastructure project with a Project Agreement
with no usage risk (e.g., a public hospital or prison)
• 85:15 for a power or process plant project WITH an Offtake
Contract
• 80:20 for an infrastructure project with usage risk (e.g., a toll
road or mass transit project)
• 70:30 for a natural resources project
• 50:50 for a merchant power plant project with NO Offtake
Contract or price hedging
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 69
70. 第一個步驟(The First Step)
• 檢視project revenue是否足夠支付OM + DS
• 以wpd雲林OWF為例(下列數據來源為新聞報導):
• Installed Capacity:640 MW
• 貸款總額:NTD 650億
• 60%貸款總額:國內銀行貸款,但有ECA擔保
• 40%貸款總額:國內銀行貸款,為無追索權專案融資
• 貸款年限:
• 60%ECA擔保部分:3 + 13年 (3-year construction financing)
• 40%無擔保部分:3 + 13年 (3-year construction financing)
• 貸款利率:
• 60%ECA擔保部分:2%
• 40%無擔保部分:2.5%
• Total Operation and Maintenance Expenses (OM):
• Assuming O&M Cost = 65 millions Euro, 1.5% escalation per year
• Assuming OM service fee for sponsors or others = O&M Cost * 15%
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 70
72. Cost of Equity、Cost of Debt、WACC
Sources: Contemporary Engineering Economics, C. S Park
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 72
73. Equity IRR、NPV
• Equity IRR
• Unleveraged equity IRR
• Leveraged equity IRR – 一般unleveraged equity IRR + 2 ~3%
• NPV @ discount rate
• Discount rate、hurdle rate、minimum acceptable rate of
return(MARR)
• Cost of Equity - if the exact debt-financing such as interest rate、loan
term、debt/equity ratio and repayment schedules is KNOWN
• WACC - if the exact debt-financing such as interest rate、loan term
except given debt/equity ratio and repayment schedules is UNKNOWN
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 73
74. Equity IRR、NPV
• Equity IRR > MARR GO
• NPV @ discount rate > 0 GO
• DSCR
• Payback period
• 最重要的一點 – 從第一年operation開始,到特許權期限結
束,net cash flow就必須「> 0」
• 除非是不可抗力因素發生,在operation period,每一年都產生正的現
金流量,代表項目可以完全靠自己產生的現金流量存活、正常運轉
• 項目在特許權期限內,不用再依賴開發商繼續注入Equity或是國內銀
行貸款情境下,項目完全可以自己靠自己而存活
• 同時開發商跟國內銀行的權益都會獲得保障
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 74
77. Project Assumptions Structure
• Project Cost
• Operation and Maintenance Cost
• Power Sold
• Financing
• Tax and Depreciation
• Risk and Return – Discount Rate
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 77
78. Financial Evaluation of Projects
• Income Statement
• Cash Flow Statement
• Evaluation Criteria – IRR、NPV、Discount Rate
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Monte Carlo Simulation
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 78
79. 投資基礎設施的基本計算公式
• DS + OM + ER = PR
• PR: Project Revenue = 項目收入
• DS(Debt Service) = 貸款的本金與利息的償還
• OM(Operation and Maintenance Cost) = 操作維護費用
• ER(Equity Return) = 自有資金的投資報酬
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 79
87. 技術議題
– Plant Size、TotalInvestment Cost、O&M Cost etc
I. 廢棄物(Waste Supply)
A. 垃圾成分(Waste Composition)
1. 垃圾低位熱值(Lower heating value)
2. 垃圾元素分析(Ultimate analysis)
3. 垃圾簡易分析(Proximate analysis)
II. 飛灰、底灰、旁通廢棄物處理方式(Fly and Bottom Ash and
Bypass Disposal)
A. 法規規定(Regulatory Standards)
B. 飛灰與底灰處理方式與費用(Management Options and Costs)
1. 掩埋(Landfilling options)
2. 再利用(Reuse options, e.g. concrete, highway, landfill capping)
3. 運輸規定與運輸費用(Hauling requirements and cost)
4. 處理設施地點(Location of management facilities)
C. 旁通廢棄物方式與費用(Bypass disposal and cost)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 87
88. 技術議題
– Plant Size、TotalInvestment Cost、O&M Cost etc
III. 能源客戶(Energy customers)
A. 確認潛在的購電與蒸汽客戶(Identification of Potential Energy Customers)
B. 是否有長期購買合約(Availability of long – term electric or steam sales)
C. 是否有Take-or-Pay或Take-and-Pay或其他條款
D. 是否有Capacity Payment(e.g.台灣)或是僅有Energy Payment(e.g.大陸)
E. 輸配電網路與相關路權(Interconnection Requirements)
IV. 垃圾焚化廠技術性能(Technical performance)
A. 每年政府垃圾保證量(Put-or-Pay tonnage)
B. 焚化廠運轉可靠度與可用度(Processing reliability and availability)
C. 焚化廠處理容量(Throughput capability, both daily and annual tonnage)
D. 每噸垃圾發電量與每噸垃圾售電量(Power generation and sold,
kwh/tonne)
E. 相關法規遵循 / 相關環保法規規定包含空氣污染排放準(Regulatory
compliance / environmental performance including Air Quality Standards)
F. PM2.5 ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 88
89. I. 融資成本(Financing Costs)
A. 貸款比例(Component of debt, Debt/Equity ratio)
B. 貸款種類與所佔比例(Size and tenure of debts)
C. 利率與融資服務、管理費(Interest rate and arrangement fees)
D. 本金利息攤還期程(Repayment schedule)
E. 自有資金的承諾(Equity commitment)
F. 外匯兌換與匯率(Currency exchange)
II. 稅務與折舊(Tax and depreciation)
A. 稅率包含投資地區與投資商本國稅率(Tax rate)
B. 稅務優惠(Tax holiday)
C. 折舊規定(depreciation schedule)
D. 通貨膨膨率(Inflation rate)
E. 保險(Insurance)
F. 關稅/加值型營業稅(Import duties / value added taxes)
商業議題
– PlantSize、TotalInvestmentCost、O&MCostetc
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 89
90. 商業議題
– Plant Size、TotalInvestment Cost、O&M Cost etc
III. 投資總額(Total project cost)
A. 建廠費用(EPC Contract)
B. 計畫開發費(Development cost)
C. 建廠期間之利息(Interest During Construction,簡稱I DC)
D. 土地成本(Land Cost)
E. 專戶存款利息(Interest Earnings)
F. 貸款手續費(Debt Issuence Expense)
G. 還款(含本金與利息)準備金(Debt Reserve)
H. 試運轉期間之收入(Startup Revenue)
I. 試運轉期間之費用(Startup Cost)(含training及Salary)
J. 操作營運準備金(Work Capital)
K. 建造管理費(Construction Management Fee)
IV. 期程(Schedule)
A. 自有資金與貸款到位日期(Financial closing date)
B. 建廠期程(Construction Schedule)
C. 用款期程(Draw down schedule)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 90
91. 商業議題
– Plant Size、TotalInvestment Cost、O&M Cost etc
V. 操作與維護(operation and maintenance)
A. 操作維護固定費用(Operation and maintenance fixed cost)
B. 操作維護變動費用(Operation and maintenance variable cost)
C. 大型設備更換準備(Major maintenance reserve)
D. 保險(Insurance)
E. 法規遵循(Regulatory compliance)
F. 飛灰與底灰處理費用(Fly and bottom ash disposal)
VI. 能源銷售(Energy Sales)
A. 賣電或賣蒸汽(electricity, steam)
B. 容量費率(Capacity payment)
C. 能源費率(Energy payment)
D. 蒸氣費率(Steam sales)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 91
92. 商業議題
– Plant Size、TotalInvestment Cost、O&M Cost etc
VII. 敏感度分析(Sensitivity Analysis)
A. 投資總額(Total project cost)
B. 建廠費用(EPC cost)
C. 操作維護費用(O&M costs)
D. 利率(Interest rates)
E. 賣電或賣蒸汽(electricity, steam)
F. 通貨膨脹(Inflation)
G. 外匯兌換與匯率(Currency exchange)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 92
93. References
• BOO/BOT垃圾焚化廠的開發與投資評估 – 可行性研究
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/765291863574053
• BOO/BOT垃圾焚化廠的開發與投資評估 – 投資總額(Total Project Cost)
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/765291863574053
• BOO/BOT垃圾焚化廠的開發與投資評估 – 建立財務評估模型(Building
Financial Model for BOO/BOT Waste-to-Energy Project), Part 1
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/773323626104210
• BOO/BOT垃圾焚化廠的開發與投資評估 – 建立財務評估模型(Building
Financial Model for BOO/BOT Waste-to-Energy Project), Part 2
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/773794192723820
• BOO/BOT垃圾焚化廠的開發與投資評估 – 建立財務評估模型(Building
Financial Model for BOO/BOT Waste-to-Energy Project), Part 3
https://www.facebook.com/jenwu.projectfinance/posts/775662429203663
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 93
99. A hypothetical Offshore Wind Project
• All Info are from “Guide to Offshore Wind Farm, Updated and
Extended”, BVG Associates on behalf of The Crown Estate, UK,
Jan 2019
• Project Assumptions:
• Installed Capacity: 1,000 MW
• Wind Turbine Capacity: 10 MW
• Distance to Shore: 60 km
• Water Depth: 30 m
• Commencing operation in 2022
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 99
101. Project Assumptions
1. Development and project management – £120 millions
2. Wind turbine Cost - £10 millions for a 10 MW wind turbine
3. Balance of Plant (BOP) – £600 millions
4. Installation and Commissioning – £650 millions
5. Operation, Maintenance and Services – £75millions per year
6. Decommissiong – £300 millions
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 101
102. Development and Project Management
• Development and project management covers the activities up
to the point of financial close or placing firm orders to proceed
with wind farm construction. This includes activities required to
secure planning consents such as the environmental impact
assessment, and activities required to define the design and
engineering aspects.
• Activities include :
1. Development and consenting services
2. Environmental surveys
3. Resource and metocean assessment
4. Geological and hydrological surveys
5. Engineering and consultancy
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 102
103. Wind Turbine
• The turbine converts kinetic energy from the wind into three-
phase AC electrical energy.
• The wind turbine cost includes components as well as assembly
and wind turbine supplier aspects of installation and
commissioning. These installation and commissioning costs
relate mainly to own logistics and staff costs at head office, the
construction port, on the installation vessel and on the turbine
relating to mechanical and electrical completion, testing and
pre-handover checks and trouble shooting.
• Wind turbine includes the components as follow:
1. Nacelle
2. Rotor
3. Tower
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 103
104. Balance of Plant (BOP)
• The balance of plant includes all the components of the wind
farm except the turbines, including transmission assets built as
a direct result of the wind farm.
• BOP includes:
1. Array and Export Cables
2. Turbine foundation
3. Offshore substation
4. Onshore substation
5. Operations base
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 104
105. Installation and Commissioning
• All installation and commissioning of balance of plant and turbines,
including land- and sea-based activity. For offshore activities, the
process starts by transporting components from the nearest port to
manufacture to either the construction port or straight to site.
Activities are complete at the wind farm construction works
completion date, where assets are handed over to operational teams.
• The installation and commissioning activities include:
1. Foundation installation
2. Offshore substation installation
3. Onshore substation construction
4. Onshore export cable installation
5. Offshore cable installation
6. Turbine installation
7. Construction port
8. Offshore logistics
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 105
106. Operation, maintenance and service
• Operation, maintenance and service (OMS) are the combined
functions which, during the lifetime of the wind farm, support
the ongoing operation of the wind turbines, balance of plant
and associated transmission assets. OMS activities formally
start at the wind farm construction works completion date.
• The focus of these activities during the operational phase is to
ensure safe operations, to maintain the physical integrity of the
wind farm assets and to optimise electricity generation.
• OMS includes:
1. Operations
2. Maintenance and service
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 106
107. Decommissioning
• Removal or making safe of offshore infrastructure at the
end of its useful life, plus disposal of equipment.
• Decommissioning includes:
1. Turbine decommissioning
2. Foundation decommissioning
3. Cable decommissioning
4. Substation decommissioning
5. Decommissioning port
6. Reuse, recycling or disposal
7. Environmental surveys
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 107
109. Project Assumptions (1 pounds = 40 NTD)
• Capital cost
• Development and project management cost - 4,800 NTD/kw
• Wind turbine cost – 40,000 NTD/kw
• Balance of Plant – 24,000 NTD/kw
• Installation and commissioning cost – 26,000 NTD/kw
• Decommissioning cost (Taiwan) – 4,000 NTD/kw
• 漁業補償成本:1,210 NTD/kw
• 加強電力網成本:5,983 NTD/kw
• Total Capital Cost = 105,993 NTD/kw
• O&M cost
• 3,000 NTD per year per kw, escalation 1.5% per year
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 109
110. Project Assumptions (1 pounds = 40 NTD)
• Financing
• Construction period: 36 months
• Construction financing interest rate: 2.5%
• Term loan interest rate: 2.5%
• Term of loan: 3 + 13 year (3 year for construction, 13 year for operation)
• Debt issuance cost: 2% of total debt
• Debt reserve fund: 6-month principal and interest (P + I)
• Working capital: 6-month O&M cost
• Power sold
• Full load hours:4,200 hours
• Net capacity factor: 47.95%
• Reliable NCF
• 2022: 37.5%
• 2031: 37.5%
• 2041: 37.5%
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 110
116. Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm
• Installed Capacity: 860 MW
• Distance to shore: 32 km
• Water Depth: 15 – 24 m (Ave. 18 m)
• Financial Closing: June, 2018
• COD: 2021
• 90 MHI Vestas offshore wind V164-9.5MW turbine
• Financial Closing: 2018/8
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 116
117. Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm
• Total investment: £ 2 billion
• including 0.5 billion for grid connection
• £ 2,326/kw (= 2,326*40 = 93,023 NTD/kw)
• 漁業補償成本:1,210 NTD/kw
• 加強電力網成本:5,983 NTD/kw
• Total Capital cost: 100,233 NTD/kw
• The total capital cost = 103,033 NTD/kw, if jacket is used
• Power sold
• PPA term: 15 years
• UK CfD = £ 74.75/MWh (2.99 NTD/kwh)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 117
119. Project Highlight
• Installed Capacity: 640 MW
• Wind Turbine Capacity: 8 MW
• Commencing operation in 2021
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 119
120. Project Assumptions – CapitalCost
1. Development and project management cost
2. Wind turbine cost
3. Balance of Plant
4. Installation and commissioning
5. Taiwan Decommissioning cost
6. Taiwan fishery compensation cost(漁業補償成本)
7. Grid enforcement cost(加強電力網成本)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 120
121. Project Assumptions – TotalProject Cost per Installed kw
1. Total capital cost w/o project development and management cost
2. Project development and management cost
3. Interest during construction, IDC
4. Interest earnings
5. Debt issuance expense
6. Debt reserve fund
7. Startup Revenue
8. Startup Cost including training and salary)
9. Work capital)
10. Construction management fee
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 121
122. Project Assumptions – TotalProject Cost per Installed kw
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 122
123. Project Assumptions – O&M Cost
1. Operation, Maintenance and Services (OMS)
• 1st year O&M cost = 2,285,746千元/年 (including contingency 10%)
• Wpd’s O&M fee = 15% * 2,285,746千元/年 = 342,862 NTD for the 1st
year operation
• 1st year Total operating expenses
= 2,285,746+342,862 = 2,626,608 千元/年
2. Escalation: 1.5% per year
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 123
124. Project Assumptions – Financing
• Debt/Equity Ratio = 75/25
• Construction period
• 30 months
• Construction financing interest rate: 2.5%
• ECA Debt
• 60% of Total Debt
• interest rate: 2.0%
• Term of loan: 3 + 13 year (3-year for construction, 13-year for operation)
• Commercial Bank Debt
• 40% of Total Debt
• interest rate: 2.5%
• Term of loan: 3 + 10 year (3-year for construction, 10-year for operation)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 124
125. Project Assumptions – Financing
• Repayment – Annuity
• Debt issuance cost: 2% of total debt
• Debt reserve fund: 6-month principal and interest (P + I)
• Working capital: 6-month O&M cost
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 125
126. Project Assumptions – Power Sold
• Net capacity factor: 32.22% (P90)
• Reliable NCF
• 2021: 32.22%
• 2031: 32.22% or ?
• 2040: 32.22% or ?
• Feed-in Tariff (FiT) in accordance with the signed PPA
• 2 – period FiT
• 1st 10 – year = 7.1177 NTD/kwh
• 2nd 10 – year = 3.5685 NTD/kwh
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 126
127. Project Assumptions – Tax and Depreciation
1. Fixed Assets – 20-year
2. Development Costs – 5-year
3. Debt Issuance – 13-year
4. NO Accelerated Depreciation
5. NO Investment Tax Credit
6. If Item 4 and 5 are added, more cash flow will be generated
to have higher IRR and NPV
7. Corporate Tax: 20%
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 127
128. Summary of Project Results (Base Case)
• Equity IRR = 17.25%
• Average Debt Service Coverage Ratio = 1.88
• Pay Back Period = 3.9 years
• Net Present Value (NPV) at designate discount rate
• Projects are undertaken because they have a positive NPV.
• If a NPV is positive at the designated discount rate, this means the rate of
return is higher than the designated discount rate.
• NPV@ xx% - Please refer to the next page.
• Net Cash Flow Year 1 – 20 > 0
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 128
129. Summary of Project Results (Base Case)
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 129
130. Sensitivity Analysis
• Total Project Cost – Total Project Cost ± xx%
• -20%、-15%、-10%、-5%、0%、5%、10%、15%、20%
• Power Sold – Net Capacity Factor(NCF)
• 30%、32.5%、35%、37.5%、41.1%、47.95%
• Interest Rate for 40% non-recourse debt
• 3%、3.25%、3.5%、3.75%、4%、4.25%、4.5%、4.75%、5%、5.25%、
5.5%、5.75%、6%
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 130
136. Investment Structure
Sponsor 2Sponsor 1 Sponsor nSponsor 3 ..........
Investor 1
Investor 2
Investor 3
Investor n
….
Equity Equity
Bank 1
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank n
….
Debt
1. 投資架構太複雜、難懂、項目成敗的負責人?
2. 「上窮碧落下黃泉」釐清投資架構,了解cash flow的流
向
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 136
137. Investment Structure
Sponsor 2Sponsor 1 Sponsor nSponsor 3 ..........
Investor 1
Investor 2
Investor 3
Investor n
….
Equity
SPV
Sponsors in
charge of project
management
Bank 1
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank n
….
Debt
Equity
1. 簡單、易懂、sponsors是否承擔責任與負責項目成敗?
2. 「上窮碧落下黃泉」釐清投資架構,了解cash flow的流向
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 137
143. Construction Contract Structure
- Why Completion Guarantee Matters
SPV Sponsors
Turbine Supply
Contract
Foundation
Design Contract
Foundation
Installation
Array Cable
Supply Contract
Array Cable
Installation
Export Cable
Supply Contract
Export Cable
Installation
Grid Connection
Installation
Vessel
others
Sponsors = EPC ?
Who issues Completion Guarantee ?
Cost overrun、Project delay、
Performance ?
Who is Responsible for Construction ?
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and Profit ?
Scope of Work ?
Banks assume construction risks?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 143
144. Construction Contract Structure
- Why Completion Guarantee Matters
SPV
Turbine Supply
Contract
Foundation
Design Contract
Foundation
Installation
Array Cable
Supply Contract
Array Cable
Installation
Export Cable
Supply Contract
Export Cable
Installation
Grid Connection
Installation
Vessel
Others
Sponsors
Who issues Completion Guarantee ?
Cost overrun、Project delay、
Performance ?
Who is Responsible for Construction ?
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and Profit ?
Scope of Work ?
Banks assume construction risk ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 144
145. O&M Contract Structure
SPV
Professional O&M Provider
OR
Sponsors
Turbine O&M Contractor
BOP O&M Contractor
Spare Parts Suppliers
Others
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and Profit calculation ?
Scope of Work ?
Arm - Lenghth Deal if sponsor is the operator ?
Will sponsors assume operation risks ?
Banks assume operation risks ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 145
146. O&M Contract Structure
SPV
Turbine O&M Contractor
BOP O&M Contractor
Spare Parts Suppliers
Others
Professional O&M Provider
OR
Sponsors/Technical Assistant
What is the role of Sponsors ?
Cost and profit calculation ?
Scope of work ?
Will Sponsors assume operation risks ?
Are sponsors technical assistant ONLY ?
Banks assume operation risks ?
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 146
161. 20 Credit Enhancement Checklists
1. 風險分擔、責任分配與保
險,特別是不可抗力與法
律變更
2. Project guarantor for
performance guarantee
3. Equity First, NO pro rata
4. Debt/Equity ratio、working
capital、Debt service reserve
fund、Debt service coverage
ratio
5. Cost overrun and project
completion guarantee
6. Cash deficiency guarantee
(“CDG”) and cash waterfall
7. 發(售)電量 – P50、P90、P99、
1 year、20 year、Net Capacity
Factor
8. 利率風險 – 從低到高
9. 投資架構與提早出場
10. 技術風險
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 161
162. 20 Credit Enhancement Checklists
11. 智慧財產權的侵權
12. EPC或投資開發商當EPC
13. O&M contractor
14. O&M cost impact on the
project after wind turbine
warranty period
15. Curtailment
16. Interconnection to the
TPC’s grid
17. Risks and responsibilities
assumed by government
other than TPC
18. Corporate guarantee
19. 本末倒置的順序 – 海洋風
電的融資
20. Broker、Developer-like
Broker、developer only、
full service developer
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 162
165. 3個必要的信用擔保機制
• 下述三個信用擔保機制,務必寫入融資合約:
• Project guarantor for performance guarantee
• Equity First, NO Pro Rata
• Cash Deficiency Guarantee
• 對台灣OWF項目,上述信用擔保機制,絕對大幅降低國內
銀行風險,讓銀行立於不敗之地
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 165
170. Project Guarantor for performance guarantee
• project guarantor for performance guarantee的信用擔保機制,
納入到融資合約
• 讓原始股東的股權不論怎麼賣,項目的performance還是有第三人來
承擔項目的performance
• 項目可以繼續產生現金流量
• 美國一個焚化爐項目,政府要求sponsors提供的project
guarantor做什麼:
「The Project Guarantor unconditionally and irrevocably guarantees the
performance of all the project company‘s obligations under the service
agreements in accordance with its terms and conditions for the design,
construction, and operation of the facility.」
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 170
171. Project Guarantor for performance guarantee
• Project Guarantor的資格(Qualification)
• 不是阿貓阿狗的公司都可以當project guarantor
• 而是要有技術、經驗、財務健全的公司才可以當
• 即使JV,也必須JV裡面,最有經驗、技術、財務健全的公司
• 舉例來說:如果離岸風電龍頭沃旭(Orsted),在台灣跟本國公司JV或
私募基金JV,不論那種JV,只有Orsted的丹麥母公司,有資格當
project guarantor
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 171
172. Project Guarantor for Performance Guarantee
• Project Guarantor v. 銀行介入權
• Project Guarantor機制並不需要台電同意,可以直接在融資合約訂定
• 銀行介入權讓沒有離岸風電專業的銀行,承擔介入風險
• Project Guarantor有項目技術、工程施工、O&M的專業。銀行則無
• 介入以project guarantor為優先,銀行介入權絕不輕易使用
• 如果問題連project guarantor都無法解決,銀行或第三人可
能解決嗎?
• 即使銀行或第三人能解決,絕對要付出巨大的代價
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 172
173. Equity First, NO Pro Rata
• 開發商或sponsor不只技術經驗、過去實績重要,財務狀況
更是重要
• 對於參與離岸風電的國內公司,例如:中鋼、台電,國內
銀行非常熟悉、明暸,雖然離岸風電的經驗不夠,但是這
兩家公司的財務狀況,絕對比歐洲開發商好太多
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 173
174. Equity First, NO Pro Rata
• 對於不熟悉的國外Sponsors的財務能力,如何驗證?
• 國內銀行應該也不願意花一堆錢到國外去實地查核他們
• 花了幾千萬、上億請一堆國內外律師、會計師去查核,最後結果應
該也是無濟於事
• Equity First, NO Pro Rata機制
• 馬上就讓外國開發商、投資商的財務狀況現出原形
• 不會讓國內銀行陷入「頭洗下去」的進退兩難困境
• 要求在financial closing,項目開始進行時,先使用開發商的自有資金,
等到自有資金用完後,銀行貸款才開始撥款,使用銀行的貸款
• 如果開發商的財務實力,在financial closing前或之後,籌不到其承諾
的自有資金,那銀行貸款就不撥款
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 174
175. Equity First, NO Pro Rata
• 例如:項目投資總額1,000億、Debt/Equity=75/25
• 開發商自有資金要自籌250億
• 在financial closing後,項目經費先動支這250億,等到250億,全部動
支完畢,才開始動支銀行的750億貸款。
• equity first的撥款方式,如果是吹牛、財務狀況不強的開發商,財務
狀況馬上就「馬穿短褲,露出馬腳」
• 如果籌不到250億自有資金,那銀行的貸款,就不會受到傷害。完全
可以避免「銀行頭洗下去」的情形發生
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 175
176. Equity First, NO Pro Rata
• 國外BOO項目,甚至要求開發商在financial closing那一天,
就把全部自有資金匯入到銀行指定的帳戶。
• 目前開發商要求使用Pro Rata的撥款方式
• 跟投資項目、銀行沒有共同利益、共同命運
• 就是要「銀行頭先洗下去」
• 開發商籌不到自有資金,雙手一攤,「要錢沒有、要命一條」
• 銀行是要認賠殺出,還是繼續借錢讓項目繼續?
• 不要忘了高鐵的教訓,高鐵的五大原始股東,不就是籌不
出需要的自有資金,最後只有靠政府出面收拾殘局
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 176
177. Equity First, NO Pro Rata
• 有人說「有些歐洲開發商提出10%自有資金,要在COD
(Commercial Operation Date)才拿出來」
• 以人為方式,讓Equity IRR大幅提高
• 此地無銀三百兩 – 顯然歐洲OWF開發商,口袋應該是空空的,才會
提出這種奇怪的條款
• 銀行一定要知道
• 全世界的專案融資教科書、報告、論文,甚至歐洲人的離岸風電報
告,開宗明義就說,使用無追索權或有限追索權專案融資,就是要
遵守融資銀行的terms and conditions
• 講白話文就是開發商要聽銀行的話,而不是銀行去聽開發商的話
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 177
194. 風機decay
-國內銀行必須深入研究的議題
• 引起風暴的一張圖
• 開發商自己在媒體跟透過圍事人員大力澄清
• 邀請國際專家辦了2、3個國際研討會
• 此地無銀三百兩,還是要深入研究
• 在financial modeling很重要 – 影響售電量的預估
Source: The Performance of Wind Farms in the United Kingdom and Denmark
By Dr. Gordon Hughes
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 194
195. 風機decay
-國內銀行必須深入研究的議題
• 引起風暴的一張圖
• 開發商自己在媒體跟透過圍事人員大力澄清
• 邀請國際專家辦了2、3個國際研討會
• 此地無銀三百兩,還是要深入研究
• 在financial modeling很重要 – 影響售電量的預估
Source: The Performance of Wind Farms in the United Kingdom and Denmark
By Dr. Gordon Hughes
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 195
197. 台灣離岸風電專案融資現況
• 除了ECA擔保,為保障銀行權益,融資合約最少一定要有的
credit enhancements機制:
• Project Guarantor for performance guarantee
• Equity First, NO Pro Rata – 對彰化離岸風電項目特別重要,詳述於後
• Equity Contribution Agreement for more equity injection
• Cash Deficiency Guarantee
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 197
198. 能源局直接發出設置許可後遺症
- 彰化離岸風電項目
• 筆者建議國內銀行在融資合約,務必包括下列信用擔保機
制(credit enhancement),保護銀行的權益:
1. 所有貸款必須取得開工許可後,才可以開始動用
2. Equity First, NO pro rata條款就變的非常重要。融資完成後,在未取
得開工許可,所有的項目支出,例如設計費、設備訂金等等,應
先以廠商自有資金支付
3. 提高自有資金比例最少到30-35%(因應開工許可delay或無法取得),
並提高contingency到15-20%(因應使用執照delay或無法取得)
4. 並在融資合約中一定要訂定equity contribution條款,以因應cost
overrun、project delay之用。當然廠商打的如意算盤是要國內銀行
增加貸款,而不是增加自己的自有資金
5. 最重要是sponsors的完工保證
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 198
200. References
1. 「Jen Wu’s ppp/boo/bot and Project Finance/武仁之
ppp/boo/bot與項目融資」臉書粉絲專頁 – 武仁 (Jen Wu)
2. 離岸風力發電第二期計畫可行性研究(報部版) – 台灣電力
公司,中華民國107年8月
3. “Contemporary Engineering Economics” – C. S. Park
4. “The Life and Death of an Infrastructure Project”, Editor in
Chief, Thomas H. Pyle, Asia Law and Practice
5. “Project Finance, Asset-Based Financial Engineering”, John D.
Finnerty, Ph.D.
Jen Wu's Proprietary Information 200