Analyzing Category Growth using advanced Excel techniques such as : Pivot Tables, V-LOOKUPS, IF Statements

1. Chiboodle Inc. Case Study
Sample charts and slides

2. Chiboodle sales grew 9.56% in 2015; Growth was
driven primarily by product segments Drinks and
Tacos. Year on Year growth
by product segment
2014
Tacos
Burritos
Kids meals
Drinks
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Revenue Growth by product category
Category 2014 Revenue 2015 Revenue
Drinks $638,726,641 $967,762,946
Kids
Meals
$349,105,048 $360,097,840
Burritos $1,724,000,374 $1,710,464,740
Tacos $1,396,436,937 $1,462,897,475
Drinks
Kids Meals
Burritos
Tacos

3. Growth Rate in Product Segments 2014 vs. 2015
• Continuation from Slide 1. Growth Rates by Product Segment displayed.
Providing a Data Call-out as Burritos Segment decreased in Revenue from
2014 -2015 by -0.79%
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4. Most of the growth in 2015 came from New
Store Revenue Growth = $363,885,249
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$8,245,606,751
$26,634,874
$363,885,249 $8,609,492,000

5. Number of new locations opened by year
2016
Forecast
We can’t continue to rely on new stores for growth,
since new stores growth is declining (New Store
Development has been on the decline since 2014).
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
QtyPerYear
Fiscal Year

6. “Business as Usual” Forecast: Revenue will
decline to $4,327,573,625 by 2019.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number of stores
2443 2596 2697 2769 2831
Revenue per store (total)
$ 1,842,498 $ 1,754,224 $ 1,672,847 $ 1,597,820 $ 1,528,638
Burritos (revenue per store)
$ 700,149 $ 637,783 $ 580,973 $ 529,223 $ 482,082
Tacos (revenue per store)
$ 598,812 $ 575,955 $ 553,971 $ 532,826 $ 512,488
Kids meals (revenue per store)
$ 147,400 $ 139,594 $ 132,202 $ 125,201 $ 118,571
Drinks (revenue per store)
$ 396,137 $ 400,891 $ 405,701 $ 410,570 $ 415,497
Chiboodle Total Revenue
$ 4,501,223,000 $ 4,553,964,623 $ 4,511,669,015 $ 4,424,362,378 $ 4,327,573,625
Revenue growth % (year on year)
+1% -1% -2% -2%
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7. Project Crunch forecast: key assumptions /
methodology
Variable Assumed value Rationale / source Confidence in
assumption
Price of salads
relative to
competition.
$8.44 Average of
competitors
Medium
Burrito and Taco
Sales are Mutually
Exclusive
Burrito Sales decline
= Adoption Rate of
Salads on Per Store
Basis. Taco sales will
remain unchanged.
Corresponding salad
sales will be equal to
( unit count of Tacos
* Adoption Rate of
Salads) * Salad Price
Customer Survey and
Historical Adoption
Rates of Chiboodle
Product Offerings
Medium
Revenue Growth by
Category
Function of Historical
Category Revenue
Per Store * Growth
rate per Category *
Unit Count of Stores
Historical Sales by
Category. Unit Count
of Stores contingent
upon Additional Store
Development
High
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8. Project Crunch Forecast: With Project Crunch, we
forecast revenue to grow to $4,695,763,499M by
2019
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number of stores 2443 2596 2697 2769 2831
Revenue per store (total) $1,842,498 $1,988,523 $1,898,282 $1,814,722 $1,737,327
Burritos (revenue per store) $700,149 $586,761 $534,495 $486,885 $443,515
Tacos (revenue per store) $598,812 $575,955 $553,971 $532,826 $512,488
Kids meals (revenue per store) $147,400 $139,594 $132,202 $125,201 $118,571
Drinks (revenue per store) $396,137 $400,891 $405,701 $410,570 $415,497
Salads (revenue per store) 0 $232,103 $271,913 $259,240 $247,256
Chiboodle Total Revenue $4,501,223,000 $4,638,579,914 $4,653,032,993 $4,671,719,262 $4,695,763,499
Revenue growth % (year on year) +3.1% +.3% +.4% +.5%
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9. Scenario Analysis: If we price salads at $10.38,
Chiboodle revenue will grow to $$4,800,212,627M
by 2019.
2015-2019 Revenue forecast, for different scenarios
Project Crunch: Scenario 2
Total Revenue = $4,800,212,627
with Top Tier Salad Pricing of
$10.38
Project Crunch
Scenario 1: Total
Revenue = $4,696,763,499
at Median Salad Price of
$8.44
Business as usual
(BAU) forecast: Total
Revenue = $4,327,573,625
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