Global Change, Species Diversity, and the Future of Marine Ecosystems

Global Change, Species
Diversity, and the Future of
Marine Ecosystems
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We Rarely Think Beyond the Direct
Effects of Climate Change
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Climate Change in a Systems Context
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Does Community Structure Alter
Ecosystem Function?
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Does Diversity Alter
Ecosystem Function?

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High Density only Found With High Diversity

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Manipulation of Both Diversity and
Density

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Conceptual Model

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Describing our Experiment with
Structural Equation Modeling
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Predator Richness Indirectly
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Predator Richness Indirectly
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Predator Diversity and Control of
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Which Driver has a Stronger Impact on
Ecosystem Function?

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Meta-Analysis of Diversity
Manipulations
Database: Experiments

! 574 independent experiments
! 192 peer-reviewed papers
! 541 types of organisms (spp, morphs)
! 30 biomes
! 5 continents
•  Effect of diversity = log(polyculture/monoculture)

Meta-Analysis of Diversity and
Environmental Manipulations
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What About the Environment?
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Nonlinear Effect of Diversity on
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Drought Effects Comparable to
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Experiments Show Diversity Loss
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Both the Environment and Community
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Will Environmental Change have
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Climate Models Predict Increases in Storm
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•  4 Reefs selected in
2008 with paired
40x40m areas

• Giant Kelp removed
in experimental plots
every January to
simulate disturbance

Effect of Kelp Removal on Richness
Change After Multiple Removals

Byrnes et al. 2011
Global Change Biology

Santa Barbara Coastal LTER
Sampling of Rocky Reefs
2000-2009

Sampling of Rocky Reefs
2000-2009
•  40x2m transects

•  Winter largest wave
disturbance from CDIP

•  Spring Kelp from LANDSAT

•  Quadrat, swath, and point
counts for giant kelp & 250
other conspicuous algae,
fish, and invertebrates

•  Feeding links derived from
peer reviewed literature,
CDFG reports, dissertations,
and expert knowledge

Food Webs Vary
Dramatically in Space

Food Webs Vary Dramatically
over Time

2001 2007

Quantifying Food Web Structure
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Measuring Wave Disturbance

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Climate Change May Simplify Kelp Forest
Food Webs
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to simplified food webs
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Using the Fossil Record To
Understand Current Extinction Threat

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How Will Climate Change Alter Coastal
Ecosystems?

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How Will Climate Change Alter Coastal
Ecosystems?

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Laminaria

Agarum,
Laminaria, Alaria,
Alaria, Agarum, Saccharina,
Arthrothamnus, Laminaria
Costaria,
Cymathere, Agarum, Alaria,
Laminaria,
Dictyoneurum, Alaria, Eisenia, Ecklonia,
Eckloniopsis,
Egregia, Macrocystis, Ecklonia Kjemenniella,
Lessoniopsis, Eisenia, Laminaria, Undaria
Nereocystis, Agarum,
Pleurophycus, Costaria,
Pterygophora, Dictyoneurum,
Saccharina, Egregia,
Thallasiophyllum Saccharina,
Lessoniopsis,
Nereocystis, Lessonia,
Pelagophycus, Macrocystis, Laminaria
Pleurophycus, Eisenia
Postelsia, Laminaria,
Pterygophora Macrocystis,
Ecklonia Lessonia,
Macrocystis,
Ecklonia

Macrocystis

What are the Consequences of Food Web
Complexity?

Predator diversity Predator diversity
reduces herbivory increases herbivory
Byrnes et al. 2006, Finke and Denno 2004
Byrnes and Stachowicz 2009

Predator diversity Predator diversity
doesn t affect herbivory shortcuts herbivory
Finker and Snyder 2008 Bruno and O Connor 2005
(or, # of herbivores anyway)

A Probabilistic Approach to Food
Webs and Extinctions
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Climate Change, Food Web Complexity,
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How Will Human Driven Shifts in Marine Food
Webs Alter Ocean Productivity and Stability?

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The Future of Open Science

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Acknowledgements
Mentors: Jay Stachowicz, Dan Reed, Bradley Cardinale

Collaborators: Kyle Edwards, Russ Schmidt, Sally Holbrook,
Kyle Cavanaugh

SBC LTER: Clint Nelson, Christine Donahue, Shannon Harrer,
Gabe Rodriguez, Matt Silbert, Jocelyn Christie, Countless SBC
LTER Divers

Funding: National Center for Ecological Analysis and
Synthesis, NSF LTER Program, Bodega Marine Lab, NSF
IGERT Program

Global Change, Species Diversity, and the Future of Marine Ecosystems

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