Presented at the National Housing Group's annual conference in London, on 13 October 2016.

1. THE FUTURE IS HERE

2. THE FUTURE IS HERE
@JAMESWALLMAN

3. THE FUTURE OF HOUSING
13 OCTOBER 2016

4. Wayne Gretzky
“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey
player plays where the puck is going to be.”

5. AGENDA
• METHOD
• MACRO-TRENDS
• HOUSING TRENDS
• FURTHER FUTURE TRENDS
• TAKE-AWAY

6. METHOD

7. William Gibson
“The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

8. THE FUTURE IS HERE
1. Understand the
macro-trends
2. Investigate the
innovation
3. Use Diffusion of
Innovations curve

9. THE FUTURE IS HERE

10. THE FUTURE IS HERE

11. THE FUTURE IS HERE

12. THE FUTURE IS HERE

13. MACRO-TRENDS

14. THE FUTURE IS HERE
RISING DEMAND
London needs 809,000 homes
by 2021
Source: London Councils
“What this country desperately
needs… homes that people on
ordinary incomes can actually
afford to rent or buy.”
Campbell Robb, chief executive, Shelter
Image: Visualhouse & Dan Lowe

15. THE FUTURE IS HERE
ACCELERATING
CHANGE
“The pace of technological
change [is] making heads
spin”
The Economist
Social Development Index, Ian Morris

16. THE FUTURE IS HERE
EVERYWARE
• AI, AR, VR, ML, IoT
• Automation
• Always-on
“Facebook has more
people than God on this
planet, and can reach
them on a mobile phone”
Scott Galloway, NYU Stern
Mercedes-Benz’s self-driving car

17. THE FUTURE IS HERE

18. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Software is
eating the world”
Marc Andreesen,
Andreessen Horowitz

19. THE FUTURE IS HERE
AMORTALITY
People are living much
longer.
And they “rarely ask
themselves if their
behaviour is age
appropriate because that
concept has little meaning
for them”
Catherine Mayer, Amortality
Duffie Grieve, 82, tennis champion
Image: Bolder, www.be-bolder.com

20. THE FUTURE IS HERE
CARBON
CONCERN
To hit the COP 21
target of <2°C,
humans must become a
carbon sink by 2070.
Source: Danny Dorling & Mark Maslin

21. THE FUTURE IS HERE
SMART LIVING
We don’t want more anymore.
We want to be smart — to get more from less.
So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of
today.
• Smartphones
• Smart homes
• Smart cities

22. THE FUTURE IS HERE
SMART LIVING
We don’t want more anymore.
We want to be smart — to get more from less.
So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of
today.
• Smartphones
• Smart homes
• Smart cities

23. THE FUTURE IS HERE
SMART LIVING
We don’t want more anymore.
We want to be smart — to get more from less.
So move over “e-“ and “i-“, smart is the prefix of
today.
• Smartphones
• Smart homes
• Smart cities

24. THE FUTURE IS HERE
STILL HUMAN
"Human minds are the product of evolution, shaped by
millions of years of natural selection.”
Jason Collins, blogger, Evolving Economics

25. THE FUTURE IS HERE
EXPERIENTIALISM
• Post-materialism: from standards of
living to quality of life
• Happynomics
• Sharing economy
• Community matters
• Light living: access not ownership

26. TRENDS

27. THE FUTURE IS HERE
UP!
“London will have to be
developed more
densely… another 2.5m
people…
accommodating these
sorts of numbers will
inevitably demand
more tall buildings.”
Peter Murray, New London
Architecture
At 234m, Spire will be W Europe’s
tallest residential building

28. THE FUTURE IS HERE
REGENERATION
NATION
Housing & Planning Act
backs brownfield sites.
• Local councils active
• Brick by Brick in
Croydon
• Gateshead Regeneration
Partnership
U+I’s plans for Swanley, Kent.

29. THE FUTURE IS HERE
MICRO RISING
"Millennials prize
experiences over stuff. They
will sacrifice space for
location…
“Millennial” is more of a
mindset than an age
group…
downsizing has been
perceived as downgrading,
but… that’s not the case
anymore.”
Andy Levin, Carmel Place
A Pocket Living development

30. THE FUTURE IS HERE
The ideal micro-
apartment is 275-300
sq ft (25-28 sq m)
Source: Urban Land Institute
• H&P Act makes more
micro possible
• Twodios are 29 sq m
2-bed flat
• Pocket’s are 38 sq m
Pocket Living interior

31. THE FUTURE IS HERE
The Kasita is 300 sq ft.
“Young people don’t need
much space since they no
longer have the physical
belongings (records, DVDs,
books, magazines and even
TVs) of previous
generations.”
Lucian Smithers, Pocket
• Pocket sold 200 units in
past 10 years; 200 in
2016; 300 in January
2017

32. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Cowboys that convert
commercial buildings
can easily flog a coffin-
sized bedsit.”
David Birkbeck, chief executive,
Design for Homes
Pocket Living interior

33. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Cowboys that convert
commercial buildings
can easily flog a coffin-
sized bedsit.”
David Birkbeck, chief executive,
Design for Homes

34. THE FUTURE IS HERE
FLEXIBLE FRIENDS
“amazing, transforming
furniture–Murphy beds,
transforming tables,
etc–that most young
renters would not
typically invest in
themselves”
Andy Levin, Carmel Place
Carmel Place, NYC’s first official micro-unit

36. THE FUTURE IS HERE
Adjacent units in The
Panoramic in San
Francisco can be
joined

37. THE FUTURE IS HERE
GENERATION
RENT
• 80% rented privately
in 1918
• 10% today; value
£1.29 trillion, up 55%
over 5 years
• 22% by 2025
Sources: ONS, Savills
Fizzy Living landlords vs renters

38. THE FUTURE IS HERE
GENERATION
RENT
• Housing & Planning
Act wants to stop
“rogue landlords”
• Rent with Confidence
is a Trip Advisor for
renting
Matterport reduces friction

39. THE FUTURE IS HERE
FASTER HOMES
A smart way to increase
supply is “manufactured
housing”.
“It means the client can
get what they want
rather than get what
they can get.”
Andrew Partridge, RSH-P
PLACE / Ladywell in Lewisham

40. THE FUTURE IS HERE
• You can build the
Pop-Up House in four
days using just an
electric screwdriver.
• It's built to Passivhaus
standards
A complete Pop-Up House.

41. THE FUTURE IS HERE
ECO HOMES
• Exeter City Council
has commissioned
more Passivhaus
standard houses
• New materials such
as wood
The Cube in Shoreditch
by Hawkins Brown

42. THE FUTURE IS HERE
ECO HOMES
• Exeter City Council
has commissioned
more Passivhaus
standard houses
• New materials such
as wood
Y Cube: made from reclaimed
timber; rents are 65% of market rate

43. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“WELCOME
HOMES”
Connected homes will
act like thoughtful
servants.
• Virtual assistants
• Auto-recognition
• Cognitive computers
• Smart sensors
Amazon’s Alexa

44. THE FUTURE IS HERE
EMPTY NESTERS
Under-occupied housing is one of the great
problems — and opportunities — of our time.
• 16m in under-occupied houses
• 6m in houses with 2 or more excess bedrooms
• 4.5m 50-64 year-olds; 90% 65-79 year-olds
• 160,000 shortage of retirement homes by 2030
Source: ILC-UK

45. THE FUTURE IS HERE
LTBs
(LAST-TIME
BUYERS)
Government report
recommended:
• remove stamp duty
• help-to-buy
• financial advice
Grove Park retirement community

46. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Walk-in showers with
grab-rails are good, but
only if they look like
something you’d find in
a luxury hotel.”
Lord Best
Battersea Place is London's first luxury
retirement community

47. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Walk-in showers with
grab-rails are good, but
only if they look like
something you’d find in
a luxury hotel.”
Lord Best
Battersea Place is London's first luxury
retirement community

48. THE FUTURE IS HERE
“Walk-in showers with
grab-rails are good, but
only if they look like
something you’d find in
a luxury hotel.”
Lord Best
Battersea Place is London's first luxury
retirement community

49. FURTHER FUTURES

50. THE FUTURE IS HERE
HAPPY HOMES
"What's really going to
make a home a happy place
is what a resident does to it
and… also the freedom a
resident has to transform it…
an abundance of daylight,
generous ceiling spaces, as
nice views as possible, and
access to big outdoor
spaces”
Bjarke Ingels
At Big House, people cycle, walk past terraced
gardens up to the 10th floor penthouses.

52. THE FUTURE IS HERE
TEMPORARY HOMES
“a building’s permanence — long
considered major part of its value
— may increasingly seen as a
weakness instead of a strength”
Johnny Magdaleno, journalist
Created for crisis, SURI units are
more advanced than most homes.
• filter rain into potable water
• 10-year life span
• re-cycle, reuse, biodegrade
SURI by Suricatta

53. THE FUTURE IS HERE
CO-LIVING
Co-living brings
community to micro
apartments.
• Private rooms
• Common areas
• Includes wifi, bills,
cleaning, events
The Collective Old Oak Common

54. THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Common in NY, SF,
DC
• StarCity in SF
• The Collective in
London
• Roam in Bali, Miami,
Madrid
• Soon also SF, London,
Buenos Aires, Tokyo
The Collective Old Oak Common

55. THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Common in NY, SF,
DC
• StarCity in SF
• The Collective in
London
• Roam in Bali, Miami,
Madrid
• Soon also SF, London,
Buenos Aires, Tokyo
The Collective Old Oak Common

56. THE FUTURE IS HERE
RURAL MICRO
Asset light is not
because people have
to. It's because they
want to. It’s a lifestyle
choice.
• Ecocapsule is the
“Swiss Army knife of
tiny homes”
EcoCapsule also filters rain water.

57. THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Harvard startup
Getaway is for rural
escapes
Photograph by Roderick Aichinger The Maisie
Cabin near New York

58. THE FUTURE IS HERE
• Harvard startup
Getaway is for rural
escapes
Inside a Getaway

59. THE FUTURE IS HERE
VAN LIFE 2.0
Q: If your vehicle self-
drives, what will you do
inside it?
A: Whatever you want.
It's a small step from a tiny home to #vanlife.

60. THE FUTURE IS HERE
Trailer parks would be
the ultimate in asset-
light, community-
oriented living.
Tony Hsieh's trailer park, Las Vegas

61. TAKE-AWAY

62. TAKE-AWAY
• GO MICRO
• STAY FLEXIBLE
• THINK ASSET LIGHT
• CREATE COMMUNITY
• REDUCE FRICTION — WITH TECH
• MAKE HAPPY HOMES FOR EXPERIENTIALISTS

63. THE FUTURE OF HOUSING
13 OCTOBER 2016

64. THE FUTURE IS HERE
JAMES@THEFISH.CO

65. THANK YOU
THIS VISION OF THE FUTURE WAS INFORMED AND INSPIRED BY
INSIGHTS & EXPERTISE FROM:
• James Hall, political advisor to John Healey MP
• Fionnuala Earley, chief economist, Hamptons
• Richard Brown, research director, Centre for London
• Kristel Tracy, communications manager, U+I plc
• Lucian Smithers, director of sales and marketing, Pocket
• Hannah Godwin, marketing executive, Pocket

66. THANK YOU
• Meg Kaufman, project manager,
What Works Centre, Centre for Cities
• Henry Pryor, The Property Expert
• Harry Downes, managing director, Fizzy Living
• Jeff Wilson, founder, Kasita
• David Friedlander, tiny home expert
• Barney Stringer, director, Quod

67. THANK YOU
• Graham Hill, founder, Life Edited
• Nigel Howell, chief executive, FirstPort
• Sophy Taylor, founder, Taylor Made Media
• John Perry, policy advisor, Chartered Institue of Housing
• Ligia Teixeira, head of research and evaluation, Crisis
• John Tierney, director, Transform Management Consultancy

68. THANK YOU
• Greg Wilkinson, policy consultant
• Andrew Partridge, associate partner,
Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners
• Vicki Macgregor, associate, curator of exhibitions,
Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners
• David Rabee, head of marketing (UK), Matterport
• Carl Kibblewhite, experientialist
• Katie Griffiths, producer, The Future Is Here

69. THE FUTURE IS HERE
JAMES@THEFISH.CO