Technology Trends 2016
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Smart dust, machine learning, and augmented reality are just a few technologies arriving within the next few years. As our devices become more intelligent, how will we keep up? We'll all learn new ways to see and interact with our digital environment.
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Technology Trends 2016
- 1. TechnologyTrends 2016 University of Houston February 25, 2016 Jim Lee twitter @jhlinde jlee@stratfi.com
- 2. Internet ofThings - Peak Hype?
- 3. Forecast #1 – Wearable Tech Goes Invisible
- 7. Forecast #2 – Wireless and Ambient Power
- 9. SmartDust
- 10. Forecast #3 – Virtual Reality Gets Real
- 12. OrganicLEDs
- 18. Forecast #4 – Wearable Robotics and Human Augmentation coming soon
- 24. Forecast #5 – The Empathic Internet
- 27. Tracking Trends Using the Gartner Hype Cycle
- 31. Key Questions at StratFI Where to invest What to buy When to get in/out (Strategic Foresight) (Fundamental Analysis) (Technical Analysis)
- 32. Fresh off the press…. www.fastfuturepublishing.com also onAmazon.com
- 33. Strategic Foresight Investments LLC ("StratFI") is a Registered Investment Advisor ("RIA"), registered in the State of Delaware. StratFI provides asset management and related services for clients nationally. Information contained in this report is for informational and educational purposes only and is not to be considered investment advice or a recommendation to purchase any particular security. One should not engage in a market timing strategy without professional guidance or training, monitoring tools, and the ability to bear losses. Market data, trends and other content in this presentation are based on generally-available information and are believed to be reliable. StratFI does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in this presentation. Information is also time-bound and subject to change over time. StratFI will provide all prospective clients with a copy of our current Form ADV, ("Brochure") prior to commencing an Advisory relationship. Existing clients will receive a copy on an annual basis. However, at anytime, you can view our current Form ADV, Part 2 online. This document also details our firm's Privacy Policy. In addition, you can contact us at jlee@stratfi.com If you have any questions regarding this presentation, please contact us.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Great to see everyone again! My name is Jim Lee, and I run an investment advisory firm here in Wilmington. Along with more traditional investment strategies, I also track emerging trends in culture and technology. Technology is changing so quickly. Just three years ago, nobody was really talking about the internet of things. Two years ago, we weren’t even sure what to call it. Now, it is everywhere. In fact, we’ve almost hit peak hype. Everything is getting connected to the internet, and not all of it makes sense. I think it all started with the a wi-fi enabled scale that can post your weight on twitter. We now have wifi enabled frying pans that will send you a text message when you are burning a souffle. There is also Oral-B bluetooth toothbrush and app. Comes with bluetooth technology to guide your brushing and track your progress. And smart refrigerators that will take selfies every time you close the door, so that you can whether you are out of milk by using your cell phone. Tonight, I’ll talk about trends on how we are relating to our devices and how our devices are now relating to us. There is just so much information available right now, and there are some really significant questions on how to make that data accessible and easy to use. And that leads me to my first forecast….
- Great to see everyone again! My name is Jim Lee, and I run an investment advisory firm here in Wilmington. Along with more traditional investment strategies, I also track emerging trends in culture and technology. Technology is changing so quickly. Just three years ago, nobody was really talking about the internet of things. Two years ago, we weren’t even sure what to call it. Now, it is everywhere. In fact, we’ve almost hit peak hype. Everything is getting connected to the internet, and not all of it makes sense. I think it all started with the a wi-fi enabled scale that can post your weight on twitter. We now have wifi enabled frying pans that will send you a text message when you are burning a souffle. There is also Oral-B bluetooth toothbrush and app. Comes with bluetooth technology to guide your brushing and track your progress. And smart refrigerators that will take selfies every time you close the door, so that you can whether you are out of milk by using your cell phone. Tonight, I’ll talk about trends on how we are relating to our devices and how our devices are now relating to us. There is just so much information available right now, and there are some really significant questions on how to make that data accessible and easy to use. And that leads me to my first forecast….
- Wearables, in particular, are being designed to look more like normal objects. This is where the magic happens, when everyday-looking objects start to do amazing things.
- I have a Fitbit Surge, which a year ago was the best fitness tracker on the market. I use it for biking and running. Now it reminds me of a casio calculator watch from the 1980’s. Remember those. Plasticy, black, kind of clunky, and really nerdy. The new fitness watches look just like normal watches but can do a whole more. This one is a Samsung Gear S2, check the weather, monitor your heartrate, even make touchless payments.
- Three years ago, Google Glass came out, it got in the way of with having normal conversations with other people. The next generation of smart glasses by Carl Ziess actually look and work like a normal pair of prescription glasses, but they have a transparent display lens build into the corner. This can be used for weather reports, notifications, pictures, and directions. But, let’s talk about the next big thing…. --- Side Note: Carl Zeiss did it by integrating a Fresnel structure into a standard lens, and mounting a very small display at the edge of the lens. There are complicated optics at play here, but essentially the light from the display is reflected into the lens and hits the Fresnel structure, which reflects that light into your eye. A smartphone feeds the system images, and a smartwatch controlled navigation in my demo.
- Flexible bioelectronics are one area of wearable technology that is getting ready to explode. And this starts with smart bandages. We may see these hit the market within the next five years. Some of might be used to detect early stages of wound infection. At least two way to do this. One is to monitor the Ph levels of wounds, which become alkaline when infected. Others have artificial cells filled with ink that seeps out when the cell walls are weakened by bacterial toxins. Other smart bandages are embedded to with biocompatible microcell batteries to stimulate cell regeneration and kill off bacteria. In early tests the Procellera bandage heals injuries 45% faster than traditional bandage. Their first market will may be for the military. Flexible Bioelectronic tattoos can be stamped on and used to monitor things like oxygen and glucose levels, temperature, and location. But the most interesting platform for bioelectronics may be hydrogels, which are stretchy, transparent, flexible, and completely biocompatible. You can almost make invisible bandages with it. This technology will be huge. Now if you really want to wander off the edge here, the body creates a minute levels of energy that can be used to power some of these devices. Our nervous system is essentially electric, and our skin carries about 2 volts of electricity. At a small level, energy can be found in all kinds of interesting places, and that brings me to the next trend, which is
- Most recently, I’ve been getting excited about wireless power transfer. This was a technology pioneered by Nicola Tesla 100 years ago, but seeing commercial applications today. There are two competing technologies. Nearcasting and farcasting. Nearcasting looks almost like a coffee coaster and charges on contact. Ikea is now building wireless chargers into furniture. At some point, it may be possible to transfer password encrypted electricity throughout your house, using farcasting in a way that is very similar to the WiFi system on your computer. The password in cryption is important, so that your neighbors don’t siphon off your electricity. For now, wireless pad chargers seem to have an advantage. Down the road, you might be able imagine having one as a floormat for your garage, so that your electric car will be able to come home and recharge itself after a hard days work of making money for you as an Uber taxi.
- Technology is about to get more wireless and more invisible. Ambient energy such as radio waves can be used to power hordes of small objects the size of a grain of sugar in wireless mesh network collectively known as smart dust. This is a fine powder of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) chips that act as sensors to communicate information about the world. These can be programmed to measure anything from light, to temperature, to moisture, movement and vibration. Research is ongoing and being funded by DARPA. With Smart Dust, the internet of “Things” can now include mining operations, railway systems and even acres of land. Even paper currency may be trackable with smart dust. With no physical connectivity and the ability to scavenge ambient radio energy, networks are quick to set up and very resilient, extending the IoT in a number of directions. Right now the leaders here seem to be Hitachi and Linear Technology. We are going deep into sci-fi territory here… -- Side Note: Hitachi has developed the world’s smallest and thinnest Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) chip. Measuring only 0.15 x 0.15 millimeters in size and 7.5 micrometers thick Nicknamed “Powder” or “Dust”, these chips consist of 128-bit ROM (Read Only Memory) that can store a 38-digit number. Has GPS capabilities
- Virtual reality has been the next big thing for the past 30 years, but in 2016 virtual reality gets real. We are literally going to be immersed in our games and data. I’ll share will you my favorite toy from last Christmas. $100 dollars worth of Awesome.
- Samsung Gear VR. How this works: You snap in your smarphone, and the screen is divided an magnified into two parts for stereoscopic viewing. The perspective changes as you move your head. This is a really gaming immersive experience, but I’ve enjoyed using it to watch virtual reality concerts or visit places where I wouldn’t normally go, such as Cuba or Berlin. You can wander around and gaze at the ceiling or look at peoples shoes. Colleges are now using this platform for VR campus tours. Powered by Oculus, which was bought out by Facebook two years ago for $2b. By this spring we are going to VR headsets both the Playstation and Xbox. Pretty much everyone is getting into this game. Including Google and Facebook.
- In the some of the smart phones now, we are starting to see Organic Light Emitting Diodes, or OLEDs, and we talked about these last year. The company formerly known as Dupont in partnership with LG is starting to roll out inexpensive, printable organic OLED displays that can be made for energy efficiency, flexibility, and even transparency. You could almost imagine these being used as cheap, programmable wall paper. Or they could be transformed into artificial windows for providing light and the views that you wish you had in your cubicle. This has the potential to transform multiple industries.
- When you combined a transparent OLED screen with a VR headset, you get something entirely new, called augmented reality. It has been estimated that AR revenues will increase 88% annually until 2020, when it they $120 billion per year. Everyone is getting into the augmented reality trend, from intel, to Facebook, to Microsoft.
- Let’s see how this works, just for fun, how many of you have seen a demo video for the Microsoft Hololens? Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aThCr0PsyuA At some point, I believe that we have different frames of reference. You may have a digital overlay to Trip Advisor when you are in a foreign city and looking for a good restaurant. Stop at a bar and you might pull up a dating app such as OK Cupid. Go to a networking event, and your augmented reality might include LinkedIn to remember the names of people that you should already know. Your augmented reality could include games from Activision. There could be a very weird blurring out as people start to live out their fantasies in real life. This is why so many internet companies are in such a hurry to get into augmented reality. This is the fifth screen after movies, TV, PC, and the cell phone.
- But in the future, you might not need glasses. So, some of you might remember holo chess from the old Star Wars, and now the new Star Wars, too. (Spoiler alert.)
- Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AVAzGQMxEg This is an early example of a true 3-d display that enables you to look BEHIND things. In virtual reality, you are looking OUT, and in Holographic and volumetric displays, you are looking IN. Considerable progress has been made here… Zebra Imaging develops 3D holographic displays for government and commercial uses. No glasses or goggles required here yet and they can also display models that can be edited and changed in real time through Sketch Up. Ideal for architectural and design models. -- Side Note: Holographic display is a display technology that has the ability to provide all four eye mechanism: binocular disparity, motion parallax, accommodation and convergence. The 3D objects can be viewed without wearing any special glasses and no visual fatigue will be caused to human eyes. The refresh rate, through is still relatively slow though for animated images, but there are other technologies that do this better, including
- but there are other technologies that do this better, including…a volumetric display, in which an image is projected onto a rapidly spinning disk. So, we might not be to far away from having a crystal ball that actually works. --- Side Note: swept motion volumetric projected screen. Perspecta display. 900 rpm per minute. Holographic display is a display technology that has the ability to provide all four eye mechanism: binocular disparity, motion parallax, accommodation and convergence. The 3D objects can be viewed without wearing any special glasses and no visual fatigue will be caused to human eyes.
- To extend human capabilities.
- Seeing exoskeletons used for rehab therapies (Eskso Bionics and ReWalk) This is a battery-powered system features a light, wearable exoskeleton with motors at the hip and knee joints designed for all-day use. Fifteen years ago the DARPA initiated development of exoskeletons for its Human Performance Augmentation program. Two companies have developed prototypes for the US military. One is Raytheon, the other is Lockheed Martin. Today's exoskeletons can allow soldiers to carry 17 times more weight than normal and march with significantly less strain on the body. With an XOS 2 suit, for example, a solider can carry 400 pounds but feel the weight of only 23.5. Currently, the military is exploring creating Iron Man-like capabilities through the Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit (TALOS) program. This suit would provide soldiers with enhanced mobility and protection, and it would most likely run on top of an exoskeleton base by Raytheon. They hope to make a bulletproof shell by 2020. - - - Side Note: The other exoskeleton is Lockheed Martin's Human Universal Load Carrier (HULC),
- Most interesting application for wearable robotics is Genworth Financial’s exoskelton to simulate the effects of aging. It can be adjusted to mimic different levels of muscle loss and restrict joint movement which occur as we age. A headset can also replicate the effects of age related eyesight loss and hearing impairments. The idea here to help families understand the effects of aging and to prompt conversations about long-term care insurance. This is brilliant.
- But what if you can’t move at all? This is where we talk about the evolving mind to machine interface. This woman has been unable to move her own arms or legs for 15 years. But by using a mind/machine interface, she can steer a robotic arm towards a bottle, pick it up, and drink a shake. The interface includes a sensor implanted in her primary motor cortex, which 'reads' her thoughts, and a decoder, which turns her thoughts into instructions for the robotic arm. This interface is called the Brain Gate, and it comes from Brown University. This technology is more than five years old. How do we know this? It’s not wireless. If you look carefully, you can see that she is actually plugged in.
- In terms of next generation technology, there are some guys at Berkeley experimenting with the idea that we have better maps of brain activity and better wireless connections if we just powdered our brains with smart dust. When I look at this the question that comes to my mind is “what could possibly go wrong?” --- Side Note: This would reduce the risk of infection from wiring up scores of nodes. For some time, a small team of researchers at UC Berkeley has been working on plans for a less invasive, wireless monitoring system. Earlier this month, they released a draft paper: “Neural Dust: An Ultrasonic, Low Power Solution for Chronic Brain-Machine Interfaces.” The idea of neural dust immediately sparked the imagination of futurists after the paper was published on arXiv.org on July 8. “The brilliance of this system is that it could potentially allow scientists to see what’s going on with thousands, tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of neurons inside the brain at once,” wrote Ramez Naam, a senior associate at the Foresight Institute and author of “More Than Human: Embracing the promise of biological enhancement.”
- Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klkGDKKRPYU Another question that comes to mind is why stop at having two functional arms when you could have four, two of which may be semi-autonomous. This may be the future of multi-tasking. What could possibly go wrong? Some people have wandering eyes, now you can have wandering limbs, too. These arms have minds of their own, but since they are from MIT, they are probably pretty smart.
- The good news here is that computers are getting better at understanding our needs and emotions.
- Part of this is using machine learning to understand what is that we really want. It goes beyond speech recognition to natural language processing, and this is the last step in making the internet of things truly invisible and creating useful digital environments. We are now bringing our digital assistants into our conversations, and they are going to start writing their own code and will keep getting smarter the more that we use them. They may also develop their own personalities and will get to know us very, very well. These may be built into our environment, so with the Amazon Echo, we only need to mention that we need more paper towels, and it will re-order them for us If we are asked Google to book a flight, a year ago it would send us to expedia, but now it gives us dates, times, and prices from the nearest airport. Side Note: We have the Siri, Google Now, Cortana (MSFT), and Alexa (Amazon). Ask Siri “What is Zero Divided by Zero”?
- While natural language programming lets our technology know what we mean, affective computing is about helping us to convey how we feel. Affectiva is working on ways to quantify human emotions based on facial data. They is currently being used by marketing companies to figure out which clips to use for movie trailers, and to hone in on better adverting campaigns. What’s really interesting here is their ability to track human responses on a frame-by-frame basis. It can also be used to spot passing micro-expressions and determine emotions such as skepticism and doubt. You could imagine similar technologies being used for education, to measure student levels of engagement and confusion, to create effective digital tutors, and personal, yet highly scalable educational experiences. These are just a few of the trends being followed by the Gartner group in their annual hype cycle report. I’ve found this to be a useful tool in tracking the progress of technologies from idea to reality.
- So we’ve talked about a few interesting technologies. Some of which are happening now, and a few others which are a bit further out. One really useful tool for tracking these trends is something known as the Gartner Hype Cycle, which tracks the level and type of media coverage that new technologies receive in their path from idea to reality. And there seems to be a pattern or sequence that occurs here.
- Go Pro, Ambarella, Bitcoin – all coming off the peak.
- The hype cycle also estimates the arrival time of real productivity.
- So, hopefully, today we’ve helped to answer the question of WHERE the big opportunities are over the next two decades. There are also the questions of WHAT do you invest in, and WHEN do you do it. Three different question require three different disciplines to get the best answer.
- Meanwhile, if you want to learn more about trends, there is a new book out edited by my friend, Rohit Talwar out of London. It is a big read with essays from 60 futurists in 20 countries. Lots of forecasts here. Thanks again for coming, do we have time for questions?