2. 1. Introduction
2. Asia: Growing demand, but some uncertainty around production
3. Outlook for oilfield services (OFS) in Asia
4. Spotlight on China: Opportunities in conventional and
unconventional resources
5. Spotlight on Indonesia: CBM now, shale later
6. Spotlight on Malaysia: Boosting domestic output
7. Spotlight on Singapore: A financial hub for OFS companies in
Southeast Asia
8. Growing influence of regional OFS: Emergence of a new business model
Contents
3. 1
The role of Asia-Pacific in the global oil and gas market has increased significantly over the last decade and will continue to do so
in the coming 10 years. Understandably so, as non-OECD Asia was one of the key drivers of demand growth for oil and gas for the
past two decades, and is likely to remain so until 2035.
Production in non-OECD Asia has been much slower over
the same period, with crude oil and natural gas growing at
only 1.2% and 5.7%, respectively. In the coming decades, the
picture will worsen due to the expected decline in crude oil
production and tepid growth in natural gas production.
With the price of crude oil having more than doubled since
2007 and the price of spot liquefield natural gas (LNG) in
Asia having increased by more than 50%, the Asian national
oil companies (NOCs) saw the urgent need to boost domestic
production and acquire assets overseas.
To boost domestic production, the region’s investment in
exploration and production (E&P) capital expenditure has
Crude oil Natural gas
1990—2011 2012—2035 1990—2011 2012—2035
Non-OECD Asia
Global
5.1%
1.2%
2.3%
0.8%
7.9%
2.5%
4.2%
1.6%
increased significantly — it more than tripled between 2006
and 2013 and grew to approximately US$100b. The region’s
capital expenditure (capex) growth provided big opportunities
for Asia-Pacific oilfield services (OFS) companies to expand their
business. Revenues of the top 10 OFS companies by market
capitalization in the region rose at a CAGR of 21.3% between
2007 and 2012. (This does not include OFS revenues of the
large unlisted subsidiaries of CNPC and Sinopec). The market
capitalization of the largest OFS company in Asia-Pacific, China
Oilfield Services Limited, a listed subsidiary of CNOOC, is around
US$13b. Clearly, the regional OFS players have developed
financial strength and are now expanding into other markets.
Source: “World Energy Outlook,” IEA, 2013.
Compounded annual growth in demand for crude oil and natural gas
1 Introduction
1
4. 2
Total revenue of top 10 OFS companies in the region by
market capitalization in US$m
Asian NOCS have been very active in the M&A market over the past four years
as they seek to gain access to reserves.
Source : IHS Herold
Source: S&P, Capital IQ
While the NOCs are expected to continue
to acquire and develop assets globally,
there has been an increasing shift of focus
by Chinese NOCs, CNPC, Sinopec and
CNOOC, and Malaysian NOC, PETRONAS,
to grow their domestic conventional and
unconventional reserves.
The plans of NOCs to increase unconventional
reserves are good news for international OFS
companies that have the requisite technical
expertise to tap into those reserves. As
domestic spending and investment in overseas
assets by NOCs increases, opportunities
for the regional OFS to widen their global
footprint are also expected to rise.
We see these twin developments resulting
in the emergence of a new business model,
leading to more collaboration, joint ventures,
equity stakes and M&As between international
and regional OFS companies.
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2007
4,460
6.830
8,821
7,615
8,280
11,623
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
M&A of Asian NOCs in US$b
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
2007
9.0
24.7
42.7
24.0
62.3
42.1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
—
5. 3
Non-OECD Asia will hold the largest share of global energy
demand growth at 65% between 2012 and 2035. China
will be the main driver of increasing energy demand in the
current decade, but India will take over as the principal
source of growth in the 2020s1
.
Crude oil demand of non-OECD Asia by 2035 will be almost
equal to that of the entire OECD. Forecasts indicate that
demand from the former will continue to increase, whereas
demand from the latter is likely to experience negative
growth during the same period. This represents a major
shift as energy–hungry Asia (excluding Japan and Australia)
will consume 31% of the global crude output. At the same
time, Asian production is forecast to come down by 13% by
2025, driven largely by two factors — lack of major crude oil
discoveries in Asia during the last 10 years and depletion of
existing fields. The twin effect of increased consumption and
decreased production will lead to a substantial increase in
imports into Asia, which is already a significant net importer
of crude oil.
1
“World Energy Outlook,” IEA, 2013.
2 Asia: Growing
demand, but some
uncertainty around
production
3
6. 4
The prognosis is less stark for natural gas. While the compounded
annual growth in non-OECD Asia demand until 2035 is forecast at
4.2% (almost double that of crude oil at 2.3%)2
, production is also
expected to increase at 2.6% per annum.
Source: “World Energy Outlook,’’ IEA, 2013.
Source: “World Energy Outlook,” IEA, 2013.
2
“World Energy Outlook,” IEA, 2013.
As many countries in Asia subsidize fuel prices, the demand for
oil and gas in the past five years has led to a sizeable increase
in subsidy bills, and consequently, losses faced by NOCs. This
has forced many Asian governments to push through reforms
to reduce the subsidy burden, but such unpopular moves are
difficult to implement.
On the production side, many governments have renewed efforts
to boost domestic production of crude oil and natural gas.
Malaysia has taken a bold step by announcing two major
enhanced oil recovery (EOR) initiatives with international oil
companies. In the medium term, these initiatives are expected to
arrest the decline in Malaysia’s crude oil production. China is also
making renewed efforts in EOR, which should be profitable in the
medium term.
Conventional natural gas output growth in Asia is being
driven by growth in output in Indonesia, Malaysia and China.
The critical question, however, is whether Asia, with its large
reserves of shale, tight gas and coal bed methane (CBM),
will be able to quickly increase its unconventional output. If
this were to happen, it could be a game changer.
China, which has large shale reserves, has announced plans
to increase its shale output before the end of the decade.
The recent Chinese growth in tight gas production and early
shale success in Guizhou Province in Southwest China has
focused attention on increasing unconventional production.
Indonesia has large CBM and shale reserves but plans to
focus on CBM in the medium term. Indonesian regulator
SKK Migas has drawn up ambitious plans to increase its
CBM output significantly, with an estimated target of 20%
of the country’s total natural gas production.
While it is difficult to predict the extent to which the Asia-Pacific
region will succeed in its efforts to increase unconventional
production, it is clear that the outlook for companies in the oil
and gas sector remains strong in the medium term and beyond.
Region Tight gas Shale gas CBM Total
E. Europe/Eurasia
Middle East
Asia-Pacific
OECD America
Africa
Latin America
OECD Europe
11
9
21
11
10
15
4
15
4
53
48
39
40
13
20
0
21
7
0
0
2
46
13
95
66
49
55
19
Remaining technically recoverable unconventional natural
gas (tcm)
Source: “World Energy Outlook,” IEA, 2013.
Non-OECD Asia crude oil production and consumption
40
30
20
10
0
2012 2015 2010 2025 2030 2035
10
8
6
4
2
0
Consumption mbpd Production mbpd
Consumptionmbpd
Productionmbpd
Non-OECD Asia natural gas production and consumption
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Consumption bcm Production
8. 6
3
“Asset report Natuna D Alpha,” Wood Mackenzie, 1 May 2013.
E&P spending is forecast to remain robust in Asia. According to
IHS Herold, Asia will record high growth in E&P spending during
2012 to 2017. This is positive news for both international and
domestic OFS companies in the region.
Once again, Malaysia is leading the way by launching an
ambitious capex program to boost the country’s oil and natural
gas output. PETRONAS has announced that the group, along
with its partners, will incur capex of MYR300b (US$91.4b)
on various initiatives to boost domestic output of crude and
natural gas. According to Standard Chartered, spending on
oilfield services in China will increase by 85% between 2012
and 2020. Furthermore, Indonesia has announced several
large-scale plans that will result in increasing the country’s gas
output by 50% by 2020. This does not include the development
of the East Natuna project (Natuna D Alpha), with estimated
reserves of 46 tcf, forecast to commence production in
20253
. The estimated investment in Natuna, in which Exxon,
Pertamina, Total and PTT are partners, is expected to cost in
excess of US$40b.
A significant proportion of the increase in Asian E&P spending
will be on deepwater and unconventional resources. This augurs
well for international OFS companies that have the requisite
expertise to tap these resources. With several deepwater
projects already in planning or implementation stages in
Malaysia and Indonesia, Asia’s production from deepwater
resources is set to increase.
A new development to be aware of is the planned offshore
projects in Myanmar. While estimated reserves held by the
country vary significantly, the Asian Development Bank
estimates 3P reserves to be 14 bboe. Therefore, several
international majors have targeted Myanmar as a highly
prospective region for future exploration, development and
production. The results of the recent licensing round are likely
to be announced by the second quarter of 2014. Myanmar
Oil & Gas Enterprise (MOGE), the country’s oil and gas
regulator, has projected a jump in the natural gas output from
13.1 bcm per year in 2012 to 24 bcm per year by 2020.
Spending on unconventional resources will receive a boost as
China and Indonesia plan to increase output of shale gas, tight
gas and CBM. According to Wood Mackenzie, China has ramped
up spending in shale with Sinopec planning to drill 30 wells in
2014. Several IOCs are also planning to spud about a dozen
wells during 2014 in order to appraise their acreage.
10. 8
The outlook for the OFS sector in China remains
bullish, with the Government taking several steps
to boost domestic production. Price reforms have
improved domestic gas economics and reduced
losses on pipeline imports.4
Chinese crude oil production has increased steadily
by 2% on average for the past five years. According
to Business Monitor Online5
, China’s crude oil
production is forecast to increase, primarily driven
by two factors: the increase in output from fields that
are yet to reach peak output; and EOR efforts that
will help maintain production levels from older fields.
Crude oil output is forecast to increase marginally
by approximately 0.5 mboe per day over the next
five years.
With the significant increase in natural gas focused
capex, natural gas output is expected to more than
double by 2020.
A significant portion of the capex will be associated with efforts to
increase shale output.
4
”Asia Natural Gas,” HSBC Global Research, 10 September 2013.
5
”China Oil & Gas report, Q3 2013,” Business Monitor Online, June 2013.
Opportunities for both conventional
and unconventional
Source: “Asia Natural Gas,” HSBC Global Research, September 2013.
2020E
Domestic natural gas production
CAGR 14%
BCM
400
300
200
100
0
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Source: “China Shale Gas,” Standard Chartered Research, September 2013.
Shale capex (US$b)
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
11. 9
Expenditure in drilling, completion equipment and stimulations
services is expected to increase at a CAGR of 12% between
2012 and 2020. The high-end markets for drilling services
and completion equipment services are expected to grow at a
much higher rate of 19.9% and 20.1%, respectively.6
Multistage
hydraulic fracturing stimulation services, an essential service
to increase unconventional output, will grow from less than
US$100m in 2012 to more than US$1.2b by 2020.
6
“Global offering,” Termbray Petro-King Oilfield Services, 22 February 2013.
7
“Hilong signs three-year master supplier agreement with Smith International, a Schlumberger company,” Hilong Holding Limited, 22 October 2013.
Chinese company US company Terms of arrangement
Anton Oilfield Services Group Schlumberger Schlumberger owns 20% of Anton Oilfield: both companies
have also set up an integrated project management JV
Honghua Baker Hughes An MOU to develop shale gas
SPT Energy Halliburton An alliance for high-end drilling services
Hilong Schlumberger Hilong has signed a master supplier agreement with Smith
International Inc. (A Schlumberger company)7
Petro-King Halliburton Strategic agreement for horizontal multi-stage fracturing
Source: “China Oilfield Services,” JP Morgan, January 2013.
The above alliances will help in creating a more competitive OFS market in China, with international companies now playing a
greater role in the market.
Given these prospects, many local companies in China have
entered into alliances, partnerships or collaborations with
international companies. These foreign partners, in turn, see
the need to engage with local market operators to secure orders
from the local NOCs. The table below shows existing alliances
between Chinese and US companies in the region:
13. 11
Indonesia has great potential for a booming oil and gas sector,
with the country having estimated reserves of about 28 bboe.
However, the sector has been plagued by several issues. Some
of these include the dissolution of BP Migas by the Supreme
Court and creation of new oil regulator, SKK Migas; and the
recent arrest of the CEO of SKK Migas on corruption charges.
CBM now, shale later
Source: SKK Migas
Several projects to boost domestic output from conventional
sources are in various stages of planning and implementation.
These projects include Ande-Ande Lamut, Abadi and Tangguh.
Pertamina, Indonesia’s NOC, has also announced aggressive
capex plans to boost output and will play an important role in
the market in the coming years.
Indonesia has potentially large reserves of shale gas
(574 tcf) and CBM (453 tcf), which are much higher than its
conventional gas reserves (103 tcf). Currently, CBM serves
as the fuel source for one power plant in the country, which is
jointly owned by a state-owned enterprise and two oil majors.
As the cost of drilling a CBM well is estimated to be much
While all of this has resulted in a setback to the finalization of
major development and investment plans, expenditure in E&P
continues to rise as the existing players keep investing in smaller
or medium-size projects.
lower than for shale, SKK Migas has decided to focus on
CBM for the next 5 to 10 years and has issued licenses for
several blocks. Pertamina has announced that it will spend
US$1.5b on drilling 200 CBM wells.8
Also, the geological
structure of Indonesia makes CBM extraction much more
viable than in China.
According to the road map developed by SKK Migas, CBM
production is forecast to increase to 1 bcfd by 2020. Besides
Pertamina, several international oil majors and independents
have bid for CBM block development. This indicates that this
unconventional resource is likely to have good potential.
Expenditure in E&P in US$m
7,582
9,142
10,615 10,425
11,031
14,022
15,570
23,50025,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2006
Exploration Administration Development Production Total
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
8
“CBM first, then shale gas, Pertamina says,” The Jakarta Post, 2 February 2013.
15. 13
Malaysia is a net exporter of oil and natural gas, with nearly
40% of the country’s revenues being derived from petroleum
resources. It produces almost 2% of the world’s natural gas and
provides about 13% of global LNG volumes. As the oil and gas
sector is key to the country’s growth, the Government has set
in place several incentives to promote investment in the sector.
The Government’s initiatives appear to be paying off as Malaysia
accounted for 44% of discoveries in Southeast Asia in 2013.
Boosting domestic output
EOR initiatives, with a planned investment of US$16b,
have been launched to extend the life of aging oilfields.
New risk-sharing contracts have been awarded to fund
the development of more than 100 marginal fields with
aggregate reserves of over 500 mboe.
Several blocks have been awarded for the development
of deepwater blocks in Sabah and Sarawak, where large
discoveries were made in the past three years. Three
of those blocks will commence production by 2015,
indicating that government attempts to incentivize these
types of projects have been successful. At the same time,
more projects are in various stages of development, and the
focus on deepwater is likely to continue over the next decade.
PETRONAS, Malaysia’s NOC, announced a massive capex
program with a three-pronged approach to arrest the decline
in domestic production, increase natural gas output to meet
growing domestic demand, and set up an integrated refinery
and petrochemical plant (RAPID). PETRONAS, along with
its partners, plans to spend about MYR300b (US$91.4b) on
various projects between 2011 and 2015.
There are several other deepwater project opportunities in
the region with considerable potential that will be developed
during the coming decade. These projects include KG Basin,
East Kalimantan, Gulf of Thailand and Masela. As Malaysia
has an extensive domestic market for its home-grown OFS
companies and is close to future deepwater developments, the
Government has rolled out several initiatives to attract more
OFS companies to the country. With an ideal location (without
space constraints), favorable government policies and good
infrastructure, Malaysia is well-positioned to emerge as the
regional hub for the OFS sector in Asia.
Source: CIMB Research
PETRONAS capex 2011 — 2015 (MYR b)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2011 2012
Capex Rapid
2013E 2014F 2015F
41.2 45.6 51.2 51 51
20
40
17. 15
Despite having no oil and natural gas reserves, Singapore has
positioned itself to play a key role in the global market. The
country’s efforts have paid off as it is currently the Asian hub
for crude oil and is likely emerge as a significant player in
natural gas or LNG trading in the region. On oilfield services,
besides being a global leader in the construction of jack-up
rigs and semi-submersibles, Singapore’s robust financial stock
market has played a pivotal role in raising equity and debt
for over thirty companies whose total enterprise value is
around US$11.0b. (the enterprise value excludes Keppel
and Sembcorp Marine)
In spite of facing challenges from the emergence of new players
from China, Keppel and Sembcorp, have managed to develop
their businesses through investing in research and technology
and moving up the value chain.
Keppel has taken two bold initiatives, which reveal the
company’s vision to maintain its competitive edge in the
global market:
• Without having any confirmed order, Keppel is designing and
building a state-of-the-art drill ship that will hit the market
in 2016. Based on the company’s track record, Keppel will
not face issues in marketing the drill ships, particularly as
the exploration and development of oil and gas reserves
moves into deepwater, the market for advanced drill ships is
forecast to grow. With the proposed investment, Keppel has
outlined its growth strategy.
• Keppel is negotiating with Golar LNG for the conversion of
an LNG carrier into a floating storage liquefaction vessel
(FSLV). Keppel was awarded front-end engineering and
design (FEED) for the project in 2012, which it completed
in August, 2013. Once Keppel demonstrates success in this
project, there will be no shortage of orders for conversion of
LNG tankers into FSLV.
The presence of leading private equity players in Singapore,
with an appetite for investment in OFS companies, provides
necessary capital for OFS companies of all sizes. While leading
OFS companies will have manufacturing hubs in other countries,
they continue to use Singapore as the financial hub which
ensures the long-term viability of the country’s role in the
OFS segment.
A financial hub for OFS companies in
Southeast Asia
19. 17
The regional scenarios described in the previous sections
shows three significant trends: increased spending power
of the Asian NOCs; increased influence of regional OFS
players; and increased reliance on global OFS players
for accessing reserves in the region. These trends are likely
to reconfigure sector arrangements in the region and globally.
This, in turn, will necessitate the creation of new approaches
and business models.
High growth in E&P spending in the Asia-Pacific region has
helped in the emergence of several large regional OFS players,
notably China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL) and Sapura
Kencana (SK), with more expected to follow.
COSL, which is a listed subsidiary of CNOOC, meets more
than 75% of the latter’s oil field services requirements and
has revenues of over US$4b. During 2007-12, the CAGR
of domestic and international revenues were 16% and
33%, respectively.
We note several efforts by other OFS companies to increase
revenues and grow in international markets.
• SK, through its acquisition of a rig fleet from
Seadrill, became a leading OFS player in the region.
• Sinopec consolidated all its oilfield service ventures
under a single controlling company, which it plans to list
in the future.
• CNPC also has similar plans.
These trends will result not only in an increase in the number
of large players in the region, but will also see the emergence
of more productive, efficient and resource-rich regional
OFS companies.
The competitive advantage enjoyed by these regional OFS
companies is further enhanced by their strong links to their
home country NOCs, given the latter’s mandate to promote
domestic companies. As these NOCs participate in the global
M&A market to acquire assets overseas, it also provides the
associated regional OFS companies with the opportunity to
secure orders from other parts of the globe. Chinese NOCs,
particularly, are forecast to show increased production of crude
oil from overseas assets before the end of this decade. This
would clearly benefit the associated OFS companies from China.
Emergence of a new business model
Crude production by Chinese NOCs from overseas assets
Source: “Oilfield Services & Equipment,” Jeffries, January 2014.
MBOE
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
—
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
20. 18
These industry developments also have implications for global
OFS players. On the one hand, global OFS companies may find
themselves locked out of certain markets, given the strong
rise of Asian regional OFS players. While, on the other hand,
it may be beneficial for the global OFS companies to leverage
on what already is a relationship-based advantage, by forming
partnerships and alliances with these Asian OFS companies. As
a result of this, global players may be able to gain indirect entry
into markets that have been tough to enter in the past.
A second factor that global firms should consider to remain
competitive in the changing industry landscape is the inherent
low-cost structure of many regional OFS companies. By virtue
of their origin and historical functioning, regional firms tend to
have lower-cost structures as compared to their international
counterparts. Also, such cost-structures have made it easier
for these regional OFS companies to bid for low- to medium-
cost projects — many of which are typically not targeted by
international companies. By forming alliances with such
regional OFS firms, international companies can not only
benefit as a result of the cost-related learning effects, but
also find themselves in a better position to target a hitherto
unexplored segment of the market. That is, internationals
can look to increase margins by limiting costs, as well as to
increase revenues by serving new market segments.
Such alliances between regional and international OFS firms
are not without benefit to the former too. Since the change in
the sector begins with competitive transformation of regional
OFS firms into more productive and efficient operations,
regional OFS firms that do not adjust to this changing
competitive scenario will be disadvantaged. Such tie-ups
will also allow regional firms access to a wider variety of
competencies, which will enable them to progressively
move up the value chain.
Clearly, cooperation between international and regional
companies in various forms including, acquisition of minority
stake, memorandum of understanding, alliances and joint
ventures, is the order of the day. The ability to form and manage
viable alliances will become a key strategic differentiator for
both local and international companies in the sector.
Emerging trends and responses in Asia and implications for OFS companies
Macro trends Responses OFS implications
Strong growth in
domestic consumption
Efforts at price reform
Regional OFS firms
• Expanded domestic and
regional opportunities
• Potential overseas
opportunities with
NOC parent
• Leverage lower-cost
structure and NOC
relationships to attract
international partners
• Expand domestic and
regional opportunities
• Look out for overseas
opportunities with NOC
as parent
International OFS firms
• Leverage technology and
experience for access to
expanded opportunities
Decline in domestic
oil production
Renewed and
increased investment
in conventional
production, EOR, and
deepwater
Slow growth in
domestic natural gas
production
Overseas acquisition
of assets
Targeted focus on
unconventional gas
(shale gas, tight gas,
and CBM)
21. 19
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Contacts
20