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McKinsey on Finance

     Number 36,          2                   10                    25
     Summer 2010         The five types      McKinsey              Five ways CFOs can
                         of successful       conversations with    make cost cuts stick
     Perspectives on     acquisitions        global leaders:
     Corporate Finance                       David Rubenstein of
     and Strategy                            The Carlyle Group

                         8                   21                    32
                         A singular moment   Why Asia’s banks      The right way
                         for merger value?   underperform          to hedge
                                             at M&A
2




The five types of successful
acquisitions
                    Companies advance myriad strategies for creating value with acquisitions—but only
                    a handful are likely to do so.




Marc Goedhart,      There is no magic formula to make acquisitions          even be the real one: companies typically talk up
Tim Koller,         successful. Like any other business process, they       all kinds of strategic benefits from acquisitions that
and David Wessels   are not inherently good or bad, just as marketing       are really entirely about cost cutting. In the
                    and R&D aren’t. Each deal must have its own             absence of empirical research, our suggestions for
                    strategic logic. In our experience, acquirers in the    strategies that create value reflect our acquisitions
                    most successful deals have specific, well-              work with companies.
                    articulated value creation ideas going in. For less
                    successful deals, the strategic rationales—such as      In our experience, the strategic rationale for an
                    pursuing international scale, filling portfolio gaps,   acquisition that creates value typically conforms to
                    or building a third leg of the portfolio—tend to be     at least one of the following five archetypes:
                    vague.                                                  improving the performance of the target company,
                                                                            removing excess capacity from an industry,
                    Empirical analysis of specific acquisition strategies   creating market access for products, acquiring
                    offers limited insight, largely because of the wide     skills or technologies more quickly or at lower cost
                    variety of types and sizes of acquisitions and the      than they could be built in-house, and picking
                    lack of an objective way to classify them by            winners early and helping them develop their
                    strategy. What’s more, the stated strategy may not      businesses. If an acquisition does not fit one or
3




more of these archetypes, it’s unlikely to create     of a high-margin, high-ROIC company. Consider a
value. Executives, of course, often justify           target company with a 6 percent operating-profit
acquisitions by choosing from a much broader          margin. Reducing costs by three percentage points,
menu of strategies, including roll-ups,               to 91 percent of revenues, from 94 percent,
consolidating to improve competitive behavior,        increases the margin to 9 percent and could lead to
transformational mergers, and buying cheap.           a 50 percent increase in the company’s value. In
While these strategies can create value, we find      contrast, if the operating-profit margin of a
that they seldom do. Value-minded executives          company is 30 percent, increasing its value by
should view them with a gimlet eye.                   50 percent requires increasing the margin to
                                                      45 percent. Costs would need to decline from
Five archetypes                                       70 percent of revenues to 55 percent, a 21 percent
An acquisition’s strategic rationale should be a      reduction in the cost base. That might not be
specific articulation of one of these archetypes,     reasonable to expect.
not a vague concept like growth or strategic
positioning, which may be important but must be       Consolidate to remove excess capacity from
translated into something more tangible.              industry
Furthermore, even if your acquisition is based on     As industries mature, they typically develop excess
one of the archetypes below, it won’t create value    capacity. In chemicals, for example, companies are
if you overpay.                                       constantly looking for ways to get more production
                                                      out of their plants, while new competitors continue
Improve the target company’s performance              to enter the industry. For example, Saudi Basic
Improving the performance of the target company       Industries Corporation (SABIC), which began
is one of the most common value-creating              production in the mid-1980s, grew from 6.3 million
acquisition strategies. Put simply, you buy a         metric tons of value-added commodities—such as
company and radically reduce costs to improve         chemicals, polymers, and fertilizers—in 1985 to
margins and cash flows. In some cases, the acquirer   56 million tons in 2008. Now one of the world’s
may also take steps to accelerate revenue growth.     largest petrochemicals concerns, SABIC expects
                                                      continued growth, estimating its annual
Pursuing this strategy is what the best private-      production to reach 135 million tons by 2020.
equity firms do. Among successful private-equity
acquisitions in which a target company was            The combination of higher production from
bought, improved, and sold, with no additional        existing capacity and new capacity from recent
acquisitions along the way, operating-profit          entrants often generates more supply than demand.
margins increased by an average of about              It is in no individual competitor’s interest to shut a
2.5 percentage points more than those at peer         plant, however. Companies often find it easier to
companies during the same period. This means          shut plants across the larger combined entity
that many of the transactions increased               resulting from an acquisition than to shut their
operating-profit margins even more.                   least productive plants without one and end up
                                                      with a smaller company.
Keep in mind that it is easier to improve the
performance of a company with low margins and         Reducing excess in an industry can also extend to
low returns on invested capital (ROIC) than that      less tangible forms of capacity. Consolidation in
4   McKinsey on Finance Number 36, Summer 2010




    the pharmaceutical industry, for example, has           sales in some emerging markets, Gillette in others.
    significantly reduced the capacity of the sales force   Working together, they introduced their products
    as the product portfolios of merged companies           into new markets much more quickly.
    change and they rethink how to interact with
    doctors. Pharmaceutical companies have also             Get skills or technologies faster or at lower cost
    significantly reduced their R&D capacity as they        than they can be built
    found more productive ways to conduct research          Cisco Systems has used acquisitions to close gaps
    and pruned their portfolios of development              in its technologies, allowing it to assemble a broad
    projects.                                               line of networking products and to grow very
                                                            quickly from a company with a single product line
    While there is substantial value to be created from     into the key player in Internet equipment. From
    removing excess capacity, as in most M&A activity       1993 to 2001, Cisco acquired 71 companies, at an
    the bulk of the value often accrues to the seller’s     average price of approximately $350 million.
    shareholders, not the buyer’s.                          Cisco’s sales increased from $650 million in 1993
                                                            to $22 billion in 2001, with nearly 40 percent
    Accelerate market access for the target’s (or           of its 2001 revenue coming directly from these
    buyer’s) products                                       acquisitions. By 2009, Cisco had more than
    Often, relatively small companies with innovative       $36 billion in revenues and a market cap of
    products have difficulty reaching the entire            approximately $150 billion.
    potential market for their products. Small
    pharmaceutical companies, for example, typically        Pick winners early and help them develop their
    lack the large sales forces required to cultivate       businesses
    relationships with the many doctors they need to        The final winning strategy involves making
    promote their products. Bigger pharmaceutical           acquisitions early in the life cycle of a new industry
    companies sometimes purchase these smaller              or product line, long before most others recognize
    companies and use their own large-scale sales           that it will grow significantly. Johnson & Johnson
    forces to accelerate the sales of the smaller           pursued this strategy in its early acquisitions of
    companies’ products.                                    medical-device businesses. When J&J bought
                                                            device manufacturer Cordis, in 1996, Cordis had
    IBM, for instance, has pursued this strategy in its     $500 million in revenues. By 2007, its revenues
    software business. From 2002 to 2009, it acquired       had increased to $3.8 billion, reflecting a 20 percent
    70 companies for about $14 billion. By pushing          annual growth rate. J&J purchased orthopedic-
    their products through a global sales force, IBM        device manufacturer DePuy in 1998, when DePuy
    estimates it increased their revenues by almost         had $900 million in revenues. By 2007, they had
    50 percent in the first two years after each            grown to $4.6 billion, also at an annual growth
    acquisition and an average of more than 10 percent      rate of 20 percent.
    in the next three years.
                                                            This acquisition strategy requires a disciplined
    In some cases, the target can also help accelerate      approach by management in three dimensions.
    the acquirer’s revenue growth. In Procter &             First, you must be willing to make investments
    Gamble’s acquisition of Gillette, the combined          early, long before your competitors and the market
    company benefited because P&G had stronger              see the industry’s or company’s potential. Second,
The five types of successful acquisitions                                                                    5




you need to make multiple bets and to expect that    higher revenues than individual businesses can.
some will fail. Third, you need the skills and       Service Corporation’s funeral homes in a given city
patience to nurture the acquired businesses.         can share vehicles, purchasing, and back-office
                                                     operations, for example. They can also coordinate
Harder strategies                                    advertising across a city to reduce costs and raise
Beyond the five main acquisition strategies we’ve    revenues.
explored, a handful of others can create value,
though in our experience they do so relatively       Size per se is not what creates a successful roll-up;
rarely.                                              what matters is the right kind of size. For Service
                                                     Corporation, multiple locations in individual cities
Roll-up strategy                                     have been more important than many branches
Roll-up strategies consolidate highly fragmented     spread over many cities, because the cost savings
markets where the current competitors are too        (such as sharing vehicles) can be realized only if
small to achieve scale economies. Beginning in the   the branches are near one another. Roll-up
1960s, Service Corporation International, for        strategies are hard to disguise, so they invite
instance, grew from a single funeral home in         copycats. As others tried to imitate Service
Houston to more than 1,400 funeral homes and         Corporation’s strategy, prices for some funeral
cemeteries in 2008. Similarly, Clear Channel         homes were eventually bid up to levels that made
Communications rolled up the US market for radio     additional acquisitions uneconomic.
stations, eventually owning more than 900.
                                                     Consolidate to improve competitive behavior
This strategy works when businesses as a group       Many executives in highly competitive industries
can realize substantial cost savings or achieve      hope consolidation will lead competitors to focus
6   McKinsey on Finance Number 36, Summer 2010




    less on price competition, thereby improving the        business in 1997. Organizational changes included
    ROIC of the industry. The evidence shows, however,      structuring R&D worldwide by therapeutic rather
    that unless it consolidates to just three or four       than geographic area, enabling Novartis to build a
    companies and can keep out new entrants, pricing        world-leading oncology franchise.
    behavior doesn’t change: smaller businesses or new
    entrants often have an incentive to gain share          Across all departments and management layers,
    through lower prices. So in an industry with, say,      Novartis created a strong performance-oriented
    ten companies, lots of deals must be done before        culture supported by shifting from a seniority- to a
    the basis of competition changes.                       performance-based compensation system for
                                                            managers.
    Enter into a transformational merger
    A commonly mentioned reason for an acquisition          Buy cheap
    or merger is the desire to transform one or both        The final way to create value from an acquisition is
    companies. Transformational mergers are rare,           to buy cheap—in other words, at a price below a
    however, because the circumstances have to be just      company’s intrinsic value. In our experience,
    right, and the management team needs to execute         however, such opportunities are rare and relatively
    the strategy well.                                      small. Nonetheless, though market values revert to
                                                            intrinsic values over longer periods, there can be
    Transformational mergers can best be described by       brief moments when the two fall out of alignment.
    example. One of the world’s leading                     Markets, for example, sometimes overreact to
    pharmaceutical companies, Switzerland’s Novartis,       negative news, such as a criminal investigation of
    was formed in 1996 by the $30 billion merger of         an executive or the failure of a single product in a
    Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz. But this merger was much         portfolio with many strong ones.
    more than a simple combination of businesses:
    under the leadership of the new CEO, Daniel             Such moments are less rare in cyclical industries,
    Vasella, Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz were transformed         where assets are often undervalued at the bottom
    into an entirely new company. Using the merger as       of a cycle. Comparing actual market valuations
    a catalyst for change, Vasella and his management       with intrinsic values based on a “perfect foresight”
    team not only captured $1.4 billion in cost             model, we found that companies in cyclical
    synergies but also redefined the company’s              industries could more than double their
    mission, strategy, portfolio, and organization, as      shareholder returns (relative to actual returns) if
    well as all key processes, from research to sales. In   they acquired assets at the bottom of a cycle and
    every area, there was no automatic choice for either    sold at the top.
    the Ciba or the Sandoz way of doing things; instead,
    the organization made a systematic effort to find       While markets do throw up occasional
    the best way.                                           opportunities for companies to buy targets at levels
                                                            below their intrinsic value, we haven’t seen many
    Novartis shifted its strategic focus to innovation in   cases. To gain control of a target, acquirers must
    its life sciences business (pharmaceuticals,            pay its shareholders a premium over the current
    nutrition, and products for agriculture) and spun       market value. Although premiums can vary widely,
    off the $7 billion Ciba Specialty Chemicals             the average ones for corporate control have been
The five types of successful acquisitions                                                                                       7




fairly stable: almost 30 percent of the                       collect because publicly available data are scarce.
preannouncement price of the target’s equity. For             Private acquisitions often stem from the seller’s
targets pursued by multiple acquirers, the                    desire to get out rather than the buyer’s desire
premium rises dramatically, creating the so-called            for a purchase.
winner’s curse. If several companies evaluate a
given target and all identify roughly the same
potential synergies, the pursuer that overestimates
them most will offer the highest price. Since it is           By focusing on the types of acquisition strategies
based on an overestimation of the value to be                 that have created value for acquirers in the past,
created, the winner pays too much—and is                      managers can make it more likely that their
ultimately a loser.                                           acquisitions will create value for their shareholders.


Since market values can sometimes deviate from
intrinsic ones, management must also beware the              1 Viral V. Acharya, Moritz Hahn, and Conor Kehoe, “Corporate

                                                               governance and value creation: Evidence from private equity,”
possibility that markets may be overvaluing a                  Social Science Research Network Working Paper, February 19,
potential acquisition. Consider the stock market               2010.
                                                             2 IBM investor briefing, May 12, 2010 (www.ibm.com/investor/
bubble during the late 1990s. Companies that                   events/investor0510/presentation/pres3.pdf).
                                                             3 Marco de Heer and Timothy M. Koller, “Valuing cyclical
merged with or acquired technology, media, or
                                                               companies,” mckinseyquarterly.com, May 2000.
telecommunications businesses saw their share                4 Kevin Rock, “Why new issues are underpriced,” Journal of

prices plummet when the market reverted to                     Financial Economics, 1986, Volume 15, Number 1–2, pp. 187–212.

earlier levels. The possibility that a company might
pay too much when the market is inflated deserves
serious consideration, because M&A activity seems
to rise following periods of strong market
performance. If (and when) prices are artificially
high, large improvements are necessary to justify
an acquisition, even when the target can be
purchased at no premium to market value.
Premiums for private deals tend to be smaller,
although comprehensive evidence is difficult to




Marc Goedhart (Marc_Goedhart@McKinsey.com) is a consultant in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office, Tim Koller
(Tim_Koller@McKinsey.com) is a partner in the New York office, and David Wessels, an alumnus of the New York
office, is an adjunct professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. This article is excerpted
from Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, and David Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (fifth
edition, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, August 2010). Tim Koller is also coauthor, with Richard Dobbs and Bill
Huyett, of a forthcoming managers’ guide to value creation, titled Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance
(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, October 2010). Copyright © 2010 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.

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5 Types Of Successful Acquisitions

  • 1. McKinsey on Finance Number 36, 2 10 25 Summer 2010 The five types McKinsey Five ways CFOs can of successful conversations with make cost cuts stick Perspectives on acquisitions global leaders: Corporate Finance David Rubenstein of and Strategy The Carlyle Group 8 21 32 A singular moment Why Asia’s banks The right way for merger value? underperform to hedge at M&A
  • 2. 2 The five types of successful acquisitions Companies advance myriad strategies for creating value with acquisitions—but only a handful are likely to do so. Marc Goedhart, There is no magic formula to make acquisitions even be the real one: companies typically talk up Tim Koller, successful. Like any other business process, they all kinds of strategic benefits from acquisitions that and David Wessels are not inherently good or bad, just as marketing are really entirely about cost cutting. In the and R&D aren’t. Each deal must have its own absence of empirical research, our suggestions for strategic logic. In our experience, acquirers in the strategies that create value reflect our acquisitions most successful deals have specific, well- work with companies. articulated value creation ideas going in. For less successful deals, the strategic rationales—such as In our experience, the strategic rationale for an pursuing international scale, filling portfolio gaps, acquisition that creates value typically conforms to or building a third leg of the portfolio—tend to be at least one of the following five archetypes: vague. improving the performance of the target company, removing excess capacity from an industry, Empirical analysis of specific acquisition strategies creating market access for products, acquiring offers limited insight, largely because of the wide skills or technologies more quickly or at lower cost variety of types and sizes of acquisitions and the than they could be built in-house, and picking lack of an objective way to classify them by winners early and helping them develop their strategy. What’s more, the stated strategy may not businesses. If an acquisition does not fit one or
  • 3. 3 more of these archetypes, it’s unlikely to create of a high-margin, high-ROIC company. Consider a value. Executives, of course, often justify target company with a 6 percent operating-profit acquisitions by choosing from a much broader margin. Reducing costs by three percentage points, menu of strategies, including roll-ups, to 91 percent of revenues, from 94 percent, consolidating to improve competitive behavior, increases the margin to 9 percent and could lead to transformational mergers, and buying cheap. a 50 percent increase in the company’s value. In While these strategies can create value, we find contrast, if the operating-profit margin of a that they seldom do. Value-minded executives company is 30 percent, increasing its value by should view them with a gimlet eye. 50 percent requires increasing the margin to 45 percent. Costs would need to decline from Five archetypes 70 percent of revenues to 55 percent, a 21 percent An acquisition’s strategic rationale should be a reduction in the cost base. That might not be specific articulation of one of these archetypes, reasonable to expect. not a vague concept like growth or strategic positioning, which may be important but must be Consolidate to remove excess capacity from translated into something more tangible. industry Furthermore, even if your acquisition is based on As industries mature, they typically develop excess one of the archetypes below, it won’t create value capacity. In chemicals, for example, companies are if you overpay. constantly looking for ways to get more production out of their plants, while new competitors continue Improve the target company’s performance to enter the industry. For example, Saudi Basic Improving the performance of the target company Industries Corporation (SABIC), which began is one of the most common value-creating production in the mid-1980s, grew from 6.3 million acquisition strategies. Put simply, you buy a metric tons of value-added commodities—such as company and radically reduce costs to improve chemicals, polymers, and fertilizers—in 1985 to margins and cash flows. In some cases, the acquirer 56 million tons in 2008. Now one of the world’s may also take steps to accelerate revenue growth. largest petrochemicals concerns, SABIC expects continued growth, estimating its annual Pursuing this strategy is what the best private- production to reach 135 million tons by 2020. equity firms do. Among successful private-equity acquisitions in which a target company was The combination of higher production from bought, improved, and sold, with no additional existing capacity and new capacity from recent acquisitions along the way, operating-profit entrants often generates more supply than demand. margins increased by an average of about It is in no individual competitor’s interest to shut a 2.5 percentage points more than those at peer plant, however. Companies often find it easier to companies during the same period. This means shut plants across the larger combined entity that many of the transactions increased resulting from an acquisition than to shut their operating-profit margins even more. least productive plants without one and end up with a smaller company. Keep in mind that it is easier to improve the performance of a company with low margins and Reducing excess in an industry can also extend to low returns on invested capital (ROIC) than that less tangible forms of capacity. Consolidation in
  • 4. 4 McKinsey on Finance Number 36, Summer 2010 the pharmaceutical industry, for example, has sales in some emerging markets, Gillette in others. significantly reduced the capacity of the sales force Working together, they introduced their products as the product portfolios of merged companies into new markets much more quickly. change and they rethink how to interact with doctors. Pharmaceutical companies have also Get skills or technologies faster or at lower cost significantly reduced their R&D capacity as they than they can be built found more productive ways to conduct research Cisco Systems has used acquisitions to close gaps and pruned their portfolios of development in its technologies, allowing it to assemble a broad projects. line of networking products and to grow very quickly from a company with a single product line While there is substantial value to be created from into the key player in Internet equipment. From removing excess capacity, as in most M&A activity 1993 to 2001, Cisco acquired 71 companies, at an the bulk of the value often accrues to the seller’s average price of approximately $350 million. shareholders, not the buyer’s. Cisco’s sales increased from $650 million in 1993 to $22 billion in 2001, with nearly 40 percent Accelerate market access for the target’s (or of its 2001 revenue coming directly from these buyer’s) products acquisitions. By 2009, Cisco had more than Often, relatively small companies with innovative $36 billion in revenues and a market cap of products have difficulty reaching the entire approximately $150 billion. potential market for their products. Small pharmaceutical companies, for example, typically Pick winners early and help them develop their lack the large sales forces required to cultivate businesses relationships with the many doctors they need to The final winning strategy involves making promote their products. Bigger pharmaceutical acquisitions early in the life cycle of a new industry companies sometimes purchase these smaller or product line, long before most others recognize companies and use their own large-scale sales that it will grow significantly. Johnson & Johnson forces to accelerate the sales of the smaller pursued this strategy in its early acquisitions of companies’ products. medical-device businesses. When J&J bought device manufacturer Cordis, in 1996, Cordis had IBM, for instance, has pursued this strategy in its $500 million in revenues. By 2007, its revenues software business. From 2002 to 2009, it acquired had increased to $3.8 billion, reflecting a 20 percent 70 companies for about $14 billion. By pushing annual growth rate. J&J purchased orthopedic- their products through a global sales force, IBM device manufacturer DePuy in 1998, when DePuy estimates it increased their revenues by almost had $900 million in revenues. By 2007, they had 50 percent in the first two years after each grown to $4.6 billion, also at an annual growth acquisition and an average of more than 10 percent rate of 20 percent. in the next three years. This acquisition strategy requires a disciplined In some cases, the target can also help accelerate approach by management in three dimensions. the acquirer’s revenue growth. In Procter & First, you must be willing to make investments Gamble’s acquisition of Gillette, the combined early, long before your competitors and the market company benefited because P&G had stronger see the industry’s or company’s potential. Second,
  • 5. The five types of successful acquisitions 5 you need to make multiple bets and to expect that higher revenues than individual businesses can. some will fail. Third, you need the skills and Service Corporation’s funeral homes in a given city patience to nurture the acquired businesses. can share vehicles, purchasing, and back-office operations, for example. They can also coordinate Harder strategies advertising across a city to reduce costs and raise Beyond the five main acquisition strategies we’ve revenues. explored, a handful of others can create value, though in our experience they do so relatively Size per se is not what creates a successful roll-up; rarely. what matters is the right kind of size. For Service Corporation, multiple locations in individual cities Roll-up strategy have been more important than many branches Roll-up strategies consolidate highly fragmented spread over many cities, because the cost savings markets where the current competitors are too (such as sharing vehicles) can be realized only if small to achieve scale economies. Beginning in the the branches are near one another. Roll-up 1960s, Service Corporation International, for strategies are hard to disguise, so they invite instance, grew from a single funeral home in copycats. As others tried to imitate Service Houston to more than 1,400 funeral homes and Corporation’s strategy, prices for some funeral cemeteries in 2008. Similarly, Clear Channel homes were eventually bid up to levels that made Communications rolled up the US market for radio additional acquisitions uneconomic. stations, eventually owning more than 900. Consolidate to improve competitive behavior This strategy works when businesses as a group Many executives in highly competitive industries can realize substantial cost savings or achieve hope consolidation will lead competitors to focus
  • 6. 6 McKinsey on Finance Number 36, Summer 2010 less on price competition, thereby improving the business in 1997. Organizational changes included ROIC of the industry. The evidence shows, however, structuring R&D worldwide by therapeutic rather that unless it consolidates to just three or four than geographic area, enabling Novartis to build a companies and can keep out new entrants, pricing world-leading oncology franchise. behavior doesn’t change: smaller businesses or new entrants often have an incentive to gain share Across all departments and management layers, through lower prices. So in an industry with, say, Novartis created a strong performance-oriented ten companies, lots of deals must be done before culture supported by shifting from a seniority- to a the basis of competition changes. performance-based compensation system for managers. Enter into a transformational merger A commonly mentioned reason for an acquisition Buy cheap or merger is the desire to transform one or both The final way to create value from an acquisition is companies. Transformational mergers are rare, to buy cheap—in other words, at a price below a however, because the circumstances have to be just company’s intrinsic value. In our experience, right, and the management team needs to execute however, such opportunities are rare and relatively the strategy well. small. Nonetheless, though market values revert to intrinsic values over longer periods, there can be Transformational mergers can best be described by brief moments when the two fall out of alignment. example. One of the world’s leading Markets, for example, sometimes overreact to pharmaceutical companies, Switzerland’s Novartis, negative news, such as a criminal investigation of was formed in 1996 by the $30 billion merger of an executive or the failure of a single product in a Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz. But this merger was much portfolio with many strong ones. more than a simple combination of businesses: under the leadership of the new CEO, Daniel Such moments are less rare in cyclical industries, Vasella, Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz were transformed where assets are often undervalued at the bottom into an entirely new company. Using the merger as of a cycle. Comparing actual market valuations a catalyst for change, Vasella and his management with intrinsic values based on a “perfect foresight” team not only captured $1.4 billion in cost model, we found that companies in cyclical synergies but also redefined the company’s industries could more than double their mission, strategy, portfolio, and organization, as shareholder returns (relative to actual returns) if well as all key processes, from research to sales. In they acquired assets at the bottom of a cycle and every area, there was no automatic choice for either sold at the top. the Ciba or the Sandoz way of doing things; instead, the organization made a systematic effort to find While markets do throw up occasional the best way. opportunities for companies to buy targets at levels below their intrinsic value, we haven’t seen many Novartis shifted its strategic focus to innovation in cases. To gain control of a target, acquirers must its life sciences business (pharmaceuticals, pay its shareholders a premium over the current nutrition, and products for agriculture) and spun market value. Although premiums can vary widely, off the $7 billion Ciba Specialty Chemicals the average ones for corporate control have been
  • 7. The five types of successful acquisitions 7 fairly stable: almost 30 percent of the collect because publicly available data are scarce. preannouncement price of the target’s equity. For Private acquisitions often stem from the seller’s targets pursued by multiple acquirers, the desire to get out rather than the buyer’s desire premium rises dramatically, creating the so-called for a purchase. winner’s curse. If several companies evaluate a given target and all identify roughly the same potential synergies, the pursuer that overestimates them most will offer the highest price. Since it is By focusing on the types of acquisition strategies based on an overestimation of the value to be that have created value for acquirers in the past, created, the winner pays too much—and is managers can make it more likely that their ultimately a loser. acquisitions will create value for their shareholders. Since market values can sometimes deviate from intrinsic ones, management must also beware the 1 Viral V. Acharya, Moritz Hahn, and Conor Kehoe, “Corporate governance and value creation: Evidence from private equity,” possibility that markets may be overvaluing a Social Science Research Network Working Paper, February 19, potential acquisition. Consider the stock market 2010. 2 IBM investor briefing, May 12, 2010 (www.ibm.com/investor/ bubble during the late 1990s. Companies that events/investor0510/presentation/pres3.pdf). 3 Marco de Heer and Timothy M. Koller, “Valuing cyclical merged with or acquired technology, media, or companies,” mckinseyquarterly.com, May 2000. telecommunications businesses saw their share 4 Kevin Rock, “Why new issues are underpriced,” Journal of prices plummet when the market reverted to Financial Economics, 1986, Volume 15, Number 1–2, pp. 187–212. earlier levels. The possibility that a company might pay too much when the market is inflated deserves serious consideration, because M&A activity seems to rise following periods of strong market performance. If (and when) prices are artificially high, large improvements are necessary to justify an acquisition, even when the target can be purchased at no premium to market value. Premiums for private deals tend to be smaller, although comprehensive evidence is difficult to Marc Goedhart (Marc_Goedhart@McKinsey.com) is a consultant in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office, Tim Koller (Tim_Koller@McKinsey.com) is a partner in the New York office, and David Wessels, an alumnus of the New York office, is an adjunct professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. This article is excerpted from Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, and David Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (fifth edition, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, August 2010). Tim Koller is also coauthor, with Richard Dobbs and Bill Huyett, of a forthcoming managers’ guide to value creation, titled Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, October 2010). Copyright © 2010 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.