10. Typically
we
can
see
four
types
of
decision
making
situaBons
based
on
level
of
uncertainty
—Four Levels of Environmental Uncertainty—
A Clear-Enough Future Alternate Futures
Source: Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie,
“Strategy Under Uncertainty
1
2
3
True Ambiguity
A Range of Futures
10
?
Firms will have the
opportunity to explore a
range of futures, in an
uncertain environment
that is just beginning to
take shape. Scenario-work
and business
options are best tools.
Firms already experience the
impacts of a change in
technology/business
platforms, market
requirements or regulation ,
and more strategically
oriented companies have
begun to map outcomes and
possible end games
Firms have no clue where the
business is going; extreme
short termism prevails, some
players take strategic bets
based on scenario views
Firms have clea view where
the business is going;
execution is key differentiator
11. In
digitalizaBon
defensive
strategies
have
not
played-‐out
favorably,
nor
have
unadapBve
high
bets
—Strategy Under Uncertainty—
11
Shape the future
Play a leadership
role in establishing
how the industry
operates for
example:
- setting standards
- creating demand
Adapt to the future
Win through speed,
agility, and
flexibility in
recognizing and
capturing
opportunities in
existing markets.
Source: Adapted from Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie,
“Strategy Under Uncertainty”
Reserve the right to
play
Invest sufficiently
to stay in the game
but avoid
premature
commitments.
Wait and See
Observe the
changing
environment and
assign someone to
research the
options.
1.
2.
3.
12. What
could
be
the
future
with
IoT?
-‐
four
scenarios
Economic
and
poli*cal
issues
resolved,
moderate
growth
restored
”Global
game”
Global
players
with
strong
IT
&
service
capability
dominate
”CalifornicaCon”
Room
for
many
types
of
players
”Malnutrion
everywhere”
Few
regional/
global
giants
with
limited
advantage
of
IoT,
”Regional
Monopolies”
Regional/Global
early
adopters
dominate
Con*nuous
polariza*on
of
wealth
within
and
between
countries,
restlessness
surging,
wars
,
Economic
slump
12
IoT
plamorms
exist:
MW,
bandwith
and
cybersecurity
issues
resolved
Con*nuous
issues
with
cybersecurity
and
lack
of
unified
middleware,
congested
bandwiths
14. What
could
be
the
future
with
IoT?
-‐
four
scenarios
Economic
and
poli*cal
issues
resolved,
moderate
growth
restored
”Global
game”
Global
players
with
strong
IT
&
service
capability
dominate
”CalifornicaCon”
Room
for
many
types
of
players
”Malnutrion
everywhere”
Few
regional/
global
giants
with
limited
advantage
of
IoT,
”Regional
Monopolies”
Regional/Global
early
adopters
dominate
Con*nuous
polariza*on
of
wealth
within
and
between
countries,
restlessness
surging,
wars
,
Economic
slump
14
Statemanship
appears,
Realiism
takes
over
Opportuni*es
for
innovators
and
global
solu*ons
”Silicon
Valley”
IoT
plamorms
exist:
MW,
bandwith
and
cybersecurity
issues
resolved
Statemanship
appears,
Realism
takes
over
Opportuni*es
for
secure
closed
solu*ons
”West
pre
2010”
Con*nuous
issues
with
cybersecurity
and
lack
of
unified
middleware,
congested
bandwiths
New
global
open
plamorm
providers
a
la
Google
create
a
safe
business
arena
for
solu*on
innovators
Na*onal
pride
and
short
term
greed
take
over
,
states
as
cybercriminals
Na*onalis*c
leadership
gain
power,
behind
the
scene
tradewars
Everyone
for
my
country,
Regional
solu*ons,
”China,
Japan”
Na*nalis*c
par*es/
dictators
gain
power,
trade-‐
&
other
wars
Everyone
for
himself,
Local/regional
solu*ons,
”La*n
America”
15. Scenarios
and
your
strategies
for
a
roadmap?
1. Must
Do’s
–
What
we
need
to
do
which
ever
scenario
unfolds
1. Service
mindset
and
business
models
2. Value
chain
&
end-‐user
customer
focus
3. Social
Media/Digitalisa?on
investments
with
immediate
customer
value
2. Strategic
choices
–
Decions
that
play
out
in
most
likely
scenarios
1. Globalisa?on
&
specializa?on
vs
jack
of
all
trades
2. Focus
on
spearhead
IoT
solu?ons
(vs
cashing
on
exis?ng
brand
value)
3. Focus
in
the
ecosystem
(vs
value
chain
integra?on)
3. Gambling–
strategies
that
play
out
only
in
some
unlikely
scenarios
1. Best
friend
of
the
local
poli*cians
&
civil
servants
–
forget
customer
value
15
17. Three
Areas
where
to
Reinvent
Business
Models
with
IoT
17
Shape
the
future
1.
Value
CreaBon
System
3.
Targeted
Customers
2.
Customer
Value
Delivered
DramaCc
re-‐engineering
of
the
value
creaCon
system:
”Amazonize”
your
services
DramaCc
re-‐conceptualizaCon
of
customer
value:
”AppleCze”
your
soluCons
DramaCc
re-‐definiCon
of
the
targeted
customer:
Source:
Modified
from
original
model
by
Professor
Anil
Gupta
”Xiameterize”
you
Offering
18. Case
Mohawk:
Redefining
Value
CreaBon
System
11/09/1
4
18
1.
Value
CreaBon
System
Source:
Mohawk
website
19. Case
Mohawk:
Selling
paper
from
mill
to
the
door
–
and
gaining
customer
insight
19
1.
Value
CreaBon
System
Source:
Mohawk
website
21. Caterpillar
ProducBon
system
is
the
heart
of
quality
and
customer
saBsfacBon
Visual,
real-‐*me
process
monitoring
Quality
gates
before
products
are
moved
21
to
delivery/next
stage
Dealer
network
as
a
learning
vehicle
2.
Customer
Value
Delivered
Source:
Caterpillar
public
presenta*on