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Build · Compete · Grow
1
Opportunities &
Challenges in China’s
Automotive Aftermarket
Compared to Thailand
and Indonesia
May 2017
Build · Compete · Grow2 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
About Ipsos Business Consulting
Customized Market Research Company in Southeast Asia
Customized Market Research Company Globally
The only market research company with a business
consulting division
A global presence of more than 40 years,
with over 20 years in Southeast Asia
A strong presence in 87 countries with
more than 16,000 employees globally
#1
#3
>40
3 Build · Compete · Grow
About the Speaker
Natee Ruengjirachuporn
Head of Consulting
Natee.Ruengjirachuporn@ipsos.com
+66 2 088 0106
Natee is Head of Consulting with Ipsos Business Consulting,
responsible for Thailand and the Indochina sub-region.
He has extensively assisted major global and local players in
the automotive sector in their growth strategy
development. His clients include OEM, tier 1 and tier 2 part
suppliers as well as raw material suppliers. He specializes in
business model generation, pricing strategy and growth
strategy.
Some of his recent studies include:
• Developing an understanding of the automotive parts
in the aftermarket channel for passenger vehicle and
commercial vehicle segments in Thailand and Indonesia
• Market assessment of automotive battery products in
the ASEAN and China markets
• Evaluation of automotive part distributor partners in
ASEAN
• Identification of unmet needs and opportunities in the
Thai heavy truck market
• Developing a business model for a leading lubricant
manufacturer in the automotive and industrial
segments
Build · Compete · Grow
1. Automotive Industry Overview
2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel
3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin
4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers
5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
Build · Compete · Grow5 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Among the three selected countries, China is projected to continue its
lead in PV sales and population over the next 3 years
1.21.01.21.21.1
0.8 0.8
2014
17.9
1.3
2012
15.7
1.4
2011
14.4
0.8 1.0
2015
21.1
19.7
0.9
2013 2020F
27.9
ChinaThailandIndonesia
PV sales in China, Thailand and Indonesia,
2011 – 2020F
CAGR
CN: 10.0%
TH: -1.6%
IN: 5.7%
CAGR
CN: 5.7%
TH: 5.8%
IN: 4.5%
PV population in China, Thailand and Indonesia,
2011 – 2020F
14.7
10.29.58.57.56.7
11.3
2011
77.5
2014
133.6
13.2
244.4
2013
116.1
12.5 13.9
10.1
2012
152.4
93.2
18.2
2020F2015
ChinaThailandIndonesia
CAGR
CN: 18.4%
TH: 8.2%
IN: 11.1%
CAGR
CN: 9.9%
TH: 5.5%
IN: 7.7%
Unit in millions Unit in millions
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow6 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Among three countries, Indonesia’s PV market remains relatively
underdeveloped even in its tier one city, based on ownership data
PV ownership per 1,000 population, 2015
Indonesia
ThailandChina
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow7 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
A significant number of PVs are and will be out of warranty now and in
2020, which indicates promising demand for the aftermarket
10
70%
30%
14 79% 21%
152 61% 39%
PV Population by Warranty vs. Out of Warranty in China, Thailand and Indonesia
Unit in millions
84%16% 18
24432% 68%
1577%23%
2015 2020
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
CAGR of out-
of-warranty PV
12.3%
6.5%
10.5%
Out-of-warranty In-warranty
Build · Compete · Grow8 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Among out of warranty PVs, Japanese makes dominate the Thai and
Indonesian markets, while Chinese makes are most popular in China
24%
88%
92%
22%
12%
9%
23% 31% 94
100%
11
7 Others include European make, Chinese
make and American make, etc.
Out of Warranty Population by Regional Brands, 2015
Others include mainly American make
Others include US make and
European make, etc.
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Chinese Make OthersEuropean MakeJapanese Make
Total number of out-of-warranty PV
Unit in millions
Build · Compete · Grow
1. Automotive Industry Overview
2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel
3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin
4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers
5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
Build · Compete · Grow10 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
In China, due to an evolving distribution channel, auto parts
manufacturers will need to develop new strategies to capture
opportunities in the independent aftermarket
POSITIVEIMPACT
Distribution channel of aftermarket parts in China
Auto parts manufacturers Online
Brand Executive Shop Self-Owned
Online Shop
B2B E-commerce B2C E-commerce
End Consumers
4S dealers Independent / Chain Stores
offline
O2O
O2O
Distributors
Evolving channel Traditional flow Evolving flow
 B2B e-commerce platforms are perceived as ‘game changers’ as they directly supply parts to workshops
 B2C e-commerce platforms are evolving towards both parts and service providers as most of them are either building internal
service capabilities or cooperating with offline workshops to provide O2O services
 Some parts manufacturers have also entered into distribution groups, leveraging on both online and physical executive shops
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow11 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
In Thailand, OEMs either distribute genuine parts through authorized
dealers, or via authorized OEM parts suppliers who further supply parts
to independent aftermarket channels or end-users
Original Equipment Service
(OES) Channel
Independent Aftermarket Channel
 Genuine parts are normally
distributed via authorized vehicle
dealers or authorized OEM parts
suppliers.
— In minor cases, OEMs may only
distribute genuine parts via
authorized dealers (3S/4S), such as
Honda and GM
— Toyota on the other hand, mainly
distributes their parts through
authorized OEM parts suppliers
 Replacement parts manufacturers
(REMs) rely on parts distributors to
penetrate the market.
— These distributors have an extensive
distribution network, and
relationships with major part
wholesalers/retailers/workshops
across the nation
OES Parts Manufacturers
Vehicle OEMs
Replacement Parts Manufacturers (REMs)
Parts Retail Shops / Wholesalers
End-users
Authorized
Dealers (3S/4S)
Authorized OEM
Parts
Distributors
Branded
Workshops
Uncertified
Independent
Workshops
End Channel Workshops
Certified
Independent
Workshops
Parts Distributors
(e.g. authorized REM parts distributors,
general distributors)
Primary Channel Secondary Channel
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow12 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
In Indonesia, authorized OEM parts distributors are assigned to
distribute OEM genuine parts nationwide through authorized dealers
and parts distributors
OES Channel
OES Parts Manufacturers
Vehicle OEMs
Authorized
Dealers
(2S/3S)
Parts Distributors
(e.g. authorized REM parts distributors,
general distributors)
Parts Retail Shops / Wholesalers
End-users
Uncertified
Independent
Workshops
Branded
Workshops
Primary Channel Secondary Channel
Authorized OEM Parts
Distributors
End Channel Workshops
Certified
Independent
Workshops
Independent Aftermarket Channel
Evolving Channel
Replacement Parts Manufacturers (REMs)
 For OEM genuine parts, authorized
dealers (2S/3S) / sub-dealers (2S/3S) in
dealer groups are the main end-
channel to supply parts to vehicle
owners in the aftersales market
 Another channel for genuine parts
distribution is parts distributors in the
independent aftermarket channel.
OEMs leverage this channel to
penetrate other end-channels (i.e.
workshops)
 For replacement parts manufacturers
(REMs), they closely follow the
traditional practice by distributing the
parts through multi-layered distribution
channels
— Some REMs (e.g. Bosch) actively
explore opportunities to sell to end
channel workshops directly
Sub-dealers
(2S/3S) in
Dealer
Group
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow13 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Across three countries, 4S/3S is favored by PV owners, due to the
comprehensive and quality services it provides
4S/3S Branded workshop
Certified independent
workshop
Uncertified independent
workshop
China
 Most comprehensive
services from
maintenance to repair
 Availability of OEM
genuine parts
 Consistently high repair
quality
 Experienced
technicians and best
repair capability
 Advanced equipment
for testing and repairs
 Most favored channel
by owners in both
warranty and out of
warranty periods
 Good availability of OEM
genuine parts
 Reasonable price
 Specialized services
 High level of efficiency
 High service quality
 Lower price
 Convenient locations
 Ease of making an appointment
 High level of efficiency
Thailand
 Primarily affiliates of tire
manufacturing companies
 Mostly focus on changing
consumable parts
 Standardized services with
various promotions
 Convenient locations and short
waiting time
 Two major types: car
painting workshops and
bodywork workshops
 Second highest repair
capability after 4S/3S
 More reliable than
uncertified independent
workshops
 Low coverage
 Limited service offerings
compared to other
channels
 Highest geographic
coverage and lowest
price
 Least reliable channel
due to unstandardized
service and parts offering
Indonesia
 Most specialized in one type of
service (e.g. AC repair, tire
changes)
 High availability for specialized
parts types
 Perceived as a fast-growing and
reliable channel
 Most specialized in body
repair
 Fewer than 10% of
workshops can provide a
wide range of service
 Mainly stock parts for body
repair
 Generalist that provides a
wide range of services
(e.g. tune-up to overhaul)
 Cheaper service fees
compared to 4S/3S
 Mostly carry fast moving
parts
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow14 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
To remain competitive in the local market, different value chain
players have been implementing various strategies, which are also
observed in the China market
OEM
 To transform from a manufacturer to a service
provider
 To establish or invest in parts supply centers
and workshop chains
 To optimize the cooperation strategy with parts
suppliers
Parts Distributors
 To expand product portfolios so as to broaden
coverage and aim to establish regional
distributor alliances and partnerships
 To explore and leverage e-commerce for
broader reach
4S Stores
 To achieve more independence from OEMs,
and transform away from a service orientation
to become more customer-centric
 To optimize supply chain cost in order to close
the pricing gap relative to IAM workshops
Independent Channels
 To improve technology, service levels, and
ultimately credibility through establishment of
brand reputation (potentially joining chains /
franchise networks)
 To capitalize on e-commerce by leveraging O2O
service models
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow
1. Automotive Industry Overview
2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel
3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin
4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers
5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
Build · Compete · Grow16 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
OEM parts are preferred by PV owners, primarily due to a perception
of reliable quality and performance
19%
51%
46%
66%
36%
42%
15%
11%
12%
2%
0%
0%
Source: online surveys among out-of-warranty drivers and Key Opinion Leader interviews; Ipsos Business Consulting
OEM unless it’s too expensive
NO PREFERENCE
OEM ONLY
ALWAYS PREFER NON-OEM
PV Owners’ Preference for OEM Parts vs. Non-OEM Parts
 Consumers in three countries have a great preference for genuine parts in both warranty and out of warranty
periods. This tendency is mainly attributed to a perception of higher product quality, suitability and price
assurance.
 This preference for genuine parts has a negative correlation with the car as it ages, which means that customers’
preference for genuine parts could reduce as the car age increases, especially after 5 – 7 years.
 In China, relatively small portions of car owners show an interest in non-OEM parts, which presents a challenge
for non-OEM parts brands to grow in this market.
Build · Compete · Grow
1. Automotive Industry Overview
2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel
3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin
4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to parts
manufacturers
5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
Build · Compete · Grow18 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement requires member countries to
reduce tariffs significantly, including tariffs on auto parts
Normal track:
0% - 10% tariff
E.g.
 Textile materials
 Certain types of apparel (e.g. gloves, mittens and mitts)
Differenttracksfortradeingoods
Sensitive track:
Reduce tariff to 0 – 5% by 2018
E.g.
 Toys
 Certain types of apparel (e.g. footwear, ski boots)
 Auto parts (e.g. tires)
Background:
 ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) established in 2010
 Sequential approach to reduce tariffs step by step. The average tariff rate on Chinese goods sold in ASEAN countries has
decreased from 12.8% to 0.6%, and tariffs on ASEAN goods sold in China decreased from 9.8% to 0.1%
 China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner and ASEAN has emerged as China's third biggest trading partner
What implications
does this have for
auto parts
manufacturers in
China, Thailand and
Indonesia?
Highly sensitive track:
Tariff is 50%
E.g.
 Tobacco
 Most auto parts (e.g. engines, rear view mirrors, suspension
shock-absorbers)
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow19 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
After the launch of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, the trade
value of auto parts between selected countries increased gradually
Before ACFTA
ACFTA - Now
Future
756
324
202
20152014
+93%
2016
 High tariff among countries
 Thailand and Indonesia
mainly focused on exporting
low value added products to
China, e.g. agricultural
products (Thailand), and
fossil fuel (Indonesia)
 Auto parts trading was
active in grey market
How to increase each
country’s trading and
collaboration within
the auto parts
business?
Auto parts export from Thailand to
China (million USD)
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow
1. Automotive Industry Overview
2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel
3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin
4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers
5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
Build · Compete · Grow21 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
 Insufficient R&D capability and
investment
— Chinese companies currently
invest ~1.4% of total sales revenue
in R&D, as opposed to ~6.5%
among international players
 Lack of core/advanced technology
 Only a limited number of players are able
to compete with international players,
especially players from mature markets
— Only small number of players can
offer system / systematic solutions
for PVs, or focus and perform well
in niche markets
— A large number of players are
small-sized, encountering
problems such as standardized
products, low profit, and low value
added potential
 Over-capacity issues appear in some
auto parts factories
Limited numbers of Chinese auto parts players are active in the
Thailand/Indonesia market, and this situation could be improved
Domestic Parts manufacturers
development in China
Chinese players’ performance in
Thailand and Indonesia
 Limited number of players active in
the Thailand and Indonesia markets,
mainly due to:
— Lack of understanding of the
local market in terms of culture,
business environment and
demand
— Perception that the local
market demand is limited
— Insufficient knowledge of the
benefits brought by the Free
Trade Agreement
 Currently major players from China’s
automotive industry are still auto
OEMs instead of parts manufacturers
— Few OEMs enter new markets
by either exporting vehicles or
building manufacturing plants
in the target countries
How to win in the Thailand and
Indonesia markets
⇨ Understand the local market,
local customer needs, and
expectations toward parts
⇨ Improve parts manufacturers’
awareness of the FTA, and
understanding of the benefits
of the FTA
⇨ Increase exposure in the local
market to build a brand image
among distributors as well as
car owners
⇨ Educate the market to improve
the consumer image where
“Made in China” equals cheap
and poor quality products
⇨ Explore partnership or M&A
opportunities with
aftermarket players to have
direct contact with the end
channels (e.g. branded
workshops, certified
independent workshops)
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow22 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
To compete with foreign players, local players in Thailand should focus
on improving brand awareness, enhancing partnerships with relevant
distributors, and prioritizing high-growth regions
1 2 3Parts Branding Channel Development Geographical Landscape
64% of surveyed customers are
comfortable with using non-OEM
parts, due to:
• Lower product price
• Quality is perceived to be
equivalent to OEM parts
Brand awareness is closely linked to
quality perception
Develop a targeted and relevant value
proposition to ensure brand
awareness in the emerging
independent aftermarket
Workshop equipment suppliers will
benefit from branded service providers
and independent workshop equipment
upgrade demand, while independent
aftermarket parts and accessories
brands will need to closely follow the
development of this channel to benefit
from its development
Track the development of the channel,
identify relevant distributors and
develop partnerships with them
With large populations, low average
household income, low overall vehicle
ownership rates and high second hand
car transactions, the North and
Northeast will be the key regions
outside of Bangkok driving demand for
independent aftermarket services
Prioritize the development of
distribution coverage in regions where
demand growth is expected to be
highest
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Build · Compete · Grow23 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
1 2 3Distribution Optimization Competition in IAM Consumer Purchasing
Challenges faced by parts players:
• Identifying qualified distributors to
partner with
• Tracking and controlling
distributors’ channels for
purchases and sales
Stabilize and identify relevant partners
to become distributors through
standardized screening procedures
Grow modern channels to generate
opportunities for direct selling and
enforcing greater control on product
sales channels
Consumers’ preference shift towards
OEM genuine products
• Perceived to be higher quality and
reliable products
• End channels enjoy higher
margins and turnover
• Localize and re-assess product
offerings
• Redefine price positioning
• Enhance branding and
communications with end
channels and users
Consumers’ level of parts knowledge is
highly influenced by workshop
mechanics
• Mechanics prioritize genuine
products for parts critical to
vehicle engine and usage
• Consumers remain loyal to trusted
and reliable mechanics and
particular brands
• Consumers show minimal
willingness to learn or try new
brands
Target promotional strategies toward
mechanics to ensure that they
recommend specific parts brands
Players in Indonesia should focus on retail channel coverage,
navigating the growth of OEM genuine parts and targeting workshop
mechanics as consumers’ key influencers
Build · Compete · Grow24 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Parts manufacturers/distributors, aftermarket service providers and
auto insurance companies are the key stakeholders in the automotive
aftermarket value chain
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN
• 1st Tier
• 2nd/ 3rd Tier
• Car
manufacturers
• OEM parts
suppliers
• Authorized
vehicle
dealers
• Independent
vehicle
dealers
• Parts producers/
distributors
• Aftermarket
service
providers
• Auto insurance
companies
• Second-hand
car dealers
• Vehicle
recycling
service
providers
• Car leasing
companies
• Car financing
companies
Raw Material
& Parts
Manufacturing
Financial
Services
Aftermarket
Used Car
Sales
RecyclingNew Car Sales
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET KEY STAKEHOLDERS
Aftermarket service
• 3S/4S
• Branded workshops
• Independent workshops
⁻ Certified
⁻ Uncertified
Parts distribution
• Parts manufacturers
• Authorized dealers for genuine
parts
• Sole distributors and general
distributors for aftermarket parts
• Parts retail shops
Related services
Auto insurance companies:
Build · Compete · Grow25 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
M&A Opportunities in The Automotive Aftermarket
Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
Synergy Benefits
‣ Increase credibility and reliability
of independent workshops
‣ Facilitate and provide greater
convenience for aftermarket
service
‣ Boost the growth of the motor
insurance market as a whole
‣ Decrease the operational cost of
both workshops and insurance
companies due to economy of
scale if consolidated
‣ Maximize resources utilization
with well-established sources for
vehicle owners who seek service
from independent workshops
Synergy Benefits
‣ Decrease operational cost of
workshops and increase
profitability due to lower spare
parts cost
‣ Ensure parts availability and
shorten lead time delivery,
thereby improving service and
reducing customers’ waiting time
‣ Increase credibility of workshops
as counterfeit issue is minimized
‣ Increase the growth of the
automotive parts market as a
whole
‣ Match the supply and demand
needs for automotive parts
INDEPENDENT
WORKSHOPS
INSURANCE
COMPANIES
PARTS
DISTRIBUTORS/
MANUFACTURERS
Build · Compete · Grow26 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
About Ipsos Business Consulting
Ipsos Business Consulting is the specialist consulting division
of Ipsos, which is ranked third in the global research industry.
With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more
than 16,000 people.
We have the ability to conduct consulting engagements in
more than 100 countries. Our team of consultants has been
serving clients worldwide through our 21 consulting "hubs"
since 1994. Our suite of solutions has been developed using
over 20 years of experience working on winning sales and
marketing strategies for developed and emerging markets.
There is no substitute for first-hand knowledge when it comes
to understanding an industry. We draw on the detailed industry
expertise of our consultants, which has accumulated through
practical project execution.
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by
research and consulting professionals. We have built a solid
Group around a multi-specialist positioning. Ipsos is listed on
Eurolist - NYSE-Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120
and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement
Service (SRD).
ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
Build · Compete · Grow
At Ipsos Business Consulting we focus on maintaining our position as
a leading provider of high quality consulting solutions for sales and
marketing professionals. We deliver information, analysis and
recommendations that allow our clients to make smarter decisions, and
to develop and implement winning market strategies.
We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and
substance applies to everything we do.
Through specialization, we offer our clients a unique depth of
knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us
perspective, inspiring us to boldly call things into question, and to be
creative.
By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the
highest caliber of people who have the ability and desire to influence
and shape the future.
Our Solutions:
Go-to-Market Market Sizing
Business Unit Strategy Pricing
Competitive Insights Forecasting
Partner Evaluation Brand Strategy & Value
Innovation Scouting B2B Customer Segmentation
Optimal Channel Strategy Sales Detector
Build · Compete · Grow27 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Proven track record in the automotive sector Our Clients
Other Vehicle Related Products
• Tires
• Lubricants
• Accessories
• Paints
• Charging stations
PV OEM
• Luxury vehicles
• Mass market
Vehicle Parts Including
• Filters
• Propeller shaft
• Air bags
• Starters
• Alternators
• Batteries
• Turbocharger
CV OEM Off-Highway
• Excavator
• Bulldozer
• Forklift
• Dump truck
CV OEM On-highway (Truck and Bus)
• Light duty
• Medium duty
• Heavy duty
2 Wheeler, 3 Wheeler
• Luxury motorcycles
• E-Scooters
• ATV / SSV
Other Vehicle Related Services
• Fuel Management Solutions (CV)
• Connected cars - Innovative auto service model
development
• Intellectual property strategy
• Automotive finance and leasing
OUR EXPERTISE AND CAPABILITIES
Build · Compete · Grow28 consulting.bc@ipsos.com
Regularly published thought leadership showcasing our automotive
industry expertise
PROVEN TRACK RECORD IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR
TRENDS IN CHINA’S AUTOMOTIVE
COMPONENT MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRY
CONNECTED CARS -
DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE
REVENUE STREAMS
TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THAILAND
AND INDONESIA’S EMERGING AFTERMARKET
THE BOOM OF
CHINA’S
AUTOMOTIVE
AFTERMARKET IS
IMMINENT
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SINGAPORE
3 Killiney Road #05-01
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Singapore
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SOUTH AFRICA
Wrigley Field The Campus
57 Sloane Street Bryanston
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THAILAND
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173 Sathorn Road South
Khwaeng Tungmahamek
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T. 66 (2) 697 0100
UAE
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Al Thuraya Tower 1
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UK
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USA
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VIETNAM
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Opportunities & Challenges in China’s Automotive Aftermarket Compared to Thailand and Indonesia

  • 1. Build · Compete · Grow 1 Opportunities & Challenges in China’s Automotive Aftermarket Compared to Thailand and Indonesia May 2017
  • 2. Build · Compete · Grow2 consulting.bc@ipsos.com About Ipsos Business Consulting Customized Market Research Company in Southeast Asia Customized Market Research Company Globally The only market research company with a business consulting division A global presence of more than 40 years, with over 20 years in Southeast Asia A strong presence in 87 countries with more than 16,000 employees globally #1 #3 >40
  • 3. 3 Build · Compete · Grow About the Speaker Natee Ruengjirachuporn Head of Consulting Natee.Ruengjirachuporn@ipsos.com +66 2 088 0106 Natee is Head of Consulting with Ipsos Business Consulting, responsible for Thailand and the Indochina sub-region. He has extensively assisted major global and local players in the automotive sector in their growth strategy development. His clients include OEM, tier 1 and tier 2 part suppliers as well as raw material suppliers. He specializes in business model generation, pricing strategy and growth strategy. Some of his recent studies include: • Developing an understanding of the automotive parts in the aftermarket channel for passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle segments in Thailand and Indonesia • Market assessment of automotive battery products in the ASEAN and China markets • Evaluation of automotive part distributor partners in ASEAN • Identification of unmet needs and opportunities in the Thai heavy truck market • Developing a business model for a leading lubricant manufacturer in the automotive and industrial segments
  • 4. Build · Compete · Grow 1. Automotive Industry Overview 2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel 3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin 4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers 5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
  • 5. Build · Compete · Grow5 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Among the three selected countries, China is projected to continue its lead in PV sales and population over the next 3 years 1.21.01.21.21.1 0.8 0.8 2014 17.9 1.3 2012 15.7 1.4 2011 14.4 0.8 1.0 2015 21.1 19.7 0.9 2013 2020F 27.9 ChinaThailandIndonesia PV sales in China, Thailand and Indonesia, 2011 – 2020F CAGR CN: 10.0% TH: -1.6% IN: 5.7% CAGR CN: 5.7% TH: 5.8% IN: 4.5% PV population in China, Thailand and Indonesia, 2011 – 2020F 14.7 10.29.58.57.56.7 11.3 2011 77.5 2014 133.6 13.2 244.4 2013 116.1 12.5 13.9 10.1 2012 152.4 93.2 18.2 2020F2015 ChinaThailandIndonesia CAGR CN: 18.4% TH: 8.2% IN: 11.1% CAGR CN: 9.9% TH: 5.5% IN: 7.7% Unit in millions Unit in millions Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 6. Build · Compete · Grow6 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Among three countries, Indonesia’s PV market remains relatively underdeveloped even in its tier one city, based on ownership data PV ownership per 1,000 population, 2015 Indonesia ThailandChina Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 7. Build · Compete · Grow7 consulting.bc@ipsos.com A significant number of PVs are and will be out of warranty now and in 2020, which indicates promising demand for the aftermarket 10 70% 30% 14 79% 21% 152 61% 39% PV Population by Warranty vs. Out of Warranty in China, Thailand and Indonesia Unit in millions 84%16% 18 24432% 68% 1577%23% 2015 2020 Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis CAGR of out- of-warranty PV 12.3% 6.5% 10.5% Out-of-warranty In-warranty
  • 8. Build · Compete · Grow8 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Among out of warranty PVs, Japanese makes dominate the Thai and Indonesian markets, while Chinese makes are most popular in China 24% 88% 92% 22% 12% 9% 23% 31% 94 100% 11 7 Others include European make, Chinese make and American make, etc. Out of Warranty Population by Regional Brands, 2015 Others include mainly American make Others include US make and European make, etc. Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis Chinese Make OthersEuropean MakeJapanese Make Total number of out-of-warranty PV Unit in millions
  • 9. Build · Compete · Grow 1. Automotive Industry Overview 2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel 3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin 4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers 5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
  • 10. Build · Compete · Grow10 consulting.bc@ipsos.com In China, due to an evolving distribution channel, auto parts manufacturers will need to develop new strategies to capture opportunities in the independent aftermarket POSITIVEIMPACT Distribution channel of aftermarket parts in China Auto parts manufacturers Online Brand Executive Shop Self-Owned Online Shop B2B E-commerce B2C E-commerce End Consumers 4S dealers Independent / Chain Stores offline O2O O2O Distributors Evolving channel Traditional flow Evolving flow  B2B e-commerce platforms are perceived as ‘game changers’ as they directly supply parts to workshops  B2C e-commerce platforms are evolving towards both parts and service providers as most of them are either building internal service capabilities or cooperating with offline workshops to provide O2O services  Some parts manufacturers have also entered into distribution groups, leveraging on both online and physical executive shops Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 11. Build · Compete · Grow11 consulting.bc@ipsos.com In Thailand, OEMs either distribute genuine parts through authorized dealers, or via authorized OEM parts suppliers who further supply parts to independent aftermarket channels or end-users Original Equipment Service (OES) Channel Independent Aftermarket Channel  Genuine parts are normally distributed via authorized vehicle dealers or authorized OEM parts suppliers. — In minor cases, OEMs may only distribute genuine parts via authorized dealers (3S/4S), such as Honda and GM — Toyota on the other hand, mainly distributes their parts through authorized OEM parts suppliers  Replacement parts manufacturers (REMs) rely on parts distributors to penetrate the market. — These distributors have an extensive distribution network, and relationships with major part wholesalers/retailers/workshops across the nation OES Parts Manufacturers Vehicle OEMs Replacement Parts Manufacturers (REMs) Parts Retail Shops / Wholesalers End-users Authorized Dealers (3S/4S) Authorized OEM Parts Distributors Branded Workshops Uncertified Independent Workshops End Channel Workshops Certified Independent Workshops Parts Distributors (e.g. authorized REM parts distributors, general distributors) Primary Channel Secondary Channel Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 12. Build · Compete · Grow12 consulting.bc@ipsos.com In Indonesia, authorized OEM parts distributors are assigned to distribute OEM genuine parts nationwide through authorized dealers and parts distributors OES Channel OES Parts Manufacturers Vehicle OEMs Authorized Dealers (2S/3S) Parts Distributors (e.g. authorized REM parts distributors, general distributors) Parts Retail Shops / Wholesalers End-users Uncertified Independent Workshops Branded Workshops Primary Channel Secondary Channel Authorized OEM Parts Distributors End Channel Workshops Certified Independent Workshops Independent Aftermarket Channel Evolving Channel Replacement Parts Manufacturers (REMs)  For OEM genuine parts, authorized dealers (2S/3S) / sub-dealers (2S/3S) in dealer groups are the main end- channel to supply parts to vehicle owners in the aftersales market  Another channel for genuine parts distribution is parts distributors in the independent aftermarket channel. OEMs leverage this channel to penetrate other end-channels (i.e. workshops)  For replacement parts manufacturers (REMs), they closely follow the traditional practice by distributing the parts through multi-layered distribution channels — Some REMs (e.g. Bosch) actively explore opportunities to sell to end channel workshops directly Sub-dealers (2S/3S) in Dealer Group Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 13. Build · Compete · Grow13 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Across three countries, 4S/3S is favored by PV owners, due to the comprehensive and quality services it provides 4S/3S Branded workshop Certified independent workshop Uncertified independent workshop China  Most comprehensive services from maintenance to repair  Availability of OEM genuine parts  Consistently high repair quality  Experienced technicians and best repair capability  Advanced equipment for testing and repairs  Most favored channel by owners in both warranty and out of warranty periods  Good availability of OEM genuine parts  Reasonable price  Specialized services  High level of efficiency  High service quality  Lower price  Convenient locations  Ease of making an appointment  High level of efficiency Thailand  Primarily affiliates of tire manufacturing companies  Mostly focus on changing consumable parts  Standardized services with various promotions  Convenient locations and short waiting time  Two major types: car painting workshops and bodywork workshops  Second highest repair capability after 4S/3S  More reliable than uncertified independent workshops  Low coverage  Limited service offerings compared to other channels  Highest geographic coverage and lowest price  Least reliable channel due to unstandardized service and parts offering Indonesia  Most specialized in one type of service (e.g. AC repair, tire changes)  High availability for specialized parts types  Perceived as a fast-growing and reliable channel  Most specialized in body repair  Fewer than 10% of workshops can provide a wide range of service  Mainly stock parts for body repair  Generalist that provides a wide range of services (e.g. tune-up to overhaul)  Cheaper service fees compared to 4S/3S  Mostly carry fast moving parts Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 14. Build · Compete · Grow14 consulting.bc@ipsos.com To remain competitive in the local market, different value chain players have been implementing various strategies, which are also observed in the China market OEM  To transform from a manufacturer to a service provider  To establish or invest in parts supply centers and workshop chains  To optimize the cooperation strategy with parts suppliers Parts Distributors  To expand product portfolios so as to broaden coverage and aim to establish regional distributor alliances and partnerships  To explore and leverage e-commerce for broader reach 4S Stores  To achieve more independence from OEMs, and transform away from a service orientation to become more customer-centric  To optimize supply chain cost in order to close the pricing gap relative to IAM workshops Independent Channels  To improve technology, service levels, and ultimately credibility through establishment of brand reputation (potentially joining chains / franchise networks)  To capitalize on e-commerce by leveraging O2O service models Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 15. Build · Compete · Grow 1. Automotive Industry Overview 2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel 3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin 4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers 5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
  • 16. Build · Compete · Grow16 consulting.bc@ipsos.com OEM parts are preferred by PV owners, primarily due to a perception of reliable quality and performance 19% 51% 46% 66% 36% 42% 15% 11% 12% 2% 0% 0% Source: online surveys among out-of-warranty drivers and Key Opinion Leader interviews; Ipsos Business Consulting OEM unless it’s too expensive NO PREFERENCE OEM ONLY ALWAYS PREFER NON-OEM PV Owners’ Preference for OEM Parts vs. Non-OEM Parts  Consumers in three countries have a great preference for genuine parts in both warranty and out of warranty periods. This tendency is mainly attributed to a perception of higher product quality, suitability and price assurance.  This preference for genuine parts has a negative correlation with the car as it ages, which means that customers’ preference for genuine parts could reduce as the car age increases, especially after 5 – 7 years.  In China, relatively small portions of car owners show an interest in non-OEM parts, which presents a challenge for non-OEM parts brands to grow in this market.
  • 17. Build · Compete · Grow 1. Automotive Industry Overview 2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel 3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin 4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to parts manufacturers 5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
  • 18. Build · Compete · Grow18 consulting.bc@ipsos.com ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement requires member countries to reduce tariffs significantly, including tariffs on auto parts Normal track: 0% - 10% tariff E.g.  Textile materials  Certain types of apparel (e.g. gloves, mittens and mitts) Differenttracksfortradeingoods Sensitive track: Reduce tariff to 0 – 5% by 2018 E.g.  Toys  Certain types of apparel (e.g. footwear, ski boots)  Auto parts (e.g. tires) Background:  ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) established in 2010  Sequential approach to reduce tariffs step by step. The average tariff rate on Chinese goods sold in ASEAN countries has decreased from 12.8% to 0.6%, and tariffs on ASEAN goods sold in China decreased from 9.8% to 0.1%  China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner and ASEAN has emerged as China's third biggest trading partner What implications does this have for auto parts manufacturers in China, Thailand and Indonesia? Highly sensitive track: Tariff is 50% E.g.  Tobacco  Most auto parts (e.g. engines, rear view mirrors, suspension shock-absorbers) Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 19. Build · Compete · Grow19 consulting.bc@ipsos.com After the launch of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, the trade value of auto parts between selected countries increased gradually Before ACFTA ACFTA - Now Future 756 324 202 20152014 +93% 2016  High tariff among countries  Thailand and Indonesia mainly focused on exporting low value added products to China, e.g. agricultural products (Thailand), and fossil fuel (Indonesia)  Auto parts trading was active in grey market How to increase each country’s trading and collaboration within the auto parts business? Auto parts export from Thailand to China (million USD) Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 20. Build · Compete · Grow 1. Automotive Industry Overview 2. Understanding the Aftermarket Distribution Channel 3. Car Owners’ Attitudes Toward Parts Origin 4. Implications of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement to Parts Manufacturers 5. Our Recommendations to Automotive Aftermarket Players
  • 21. Build · Compete · Grow21 consulting.bc@ipsos.com  Insufficient R&D capability and investment — Chinese companies currently invest ~1.4% of total sales revenue in R&D, as opposed to ~6.5% among international players  Lack of core/advanced technology  Only a limited number of players are able to compete with international players, especially players from mature markets — Only small number of players can offer system / systematic solutions for PVs, or focus and perform well in niche markets — A large number of players are small-sized, encountering problems such as standardized products, low profit, and low value added potential  Over-capacity issues appear in some auto parts factories Limited numbers of Chinese auto parts players are active in the Thailand/Indonesia market, and this situation could be improved Domestic Parts manufacturers development in China Chinese players’ performance in Thailand and Indonesia  Limited number of players active in the Thailand and Indonesia markets, mainly due to: — Lack of understanding of the local market in terms of culture, business environment and demand — Perception that the local market demand is limited — Insufficient knowledge of the benefits brought by the Free Trade Agreement  Currently major players from China’s automotive industry are still auto OEMs instead of parts manufacturers — Few OEMs enter new markets by either exporting vehicles or building manufacturing plants in the target countries How to win in the Thailand and Indonesia markets ⇨ Understand the local market, local customer needs, and expectations toward parts ⇨ Improve parts manufacturers’ awareness of the FTA, and understanding of the benefits of the FTA ⇨ Increase exposure in the local market to build a brand image among distributors as well as car owners ⇨ Educate the market to improve the consumer image where “Made in China” equals cheap and poor quality products ⇨ Explore partnership or M&A opportunities with aftermarket players to have direct contact with the end channels (e.g. branded workshops, certified independent workshops) Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 22. Build · Compete · Grow22 consulting.bc@ipsos.com To compete with foreign players, local players in Thailand should focus on improving brand awareness, enhancing partnerships with relevant distributors, and prioritizing high-growth regions 1 2 3Parts Branding Channel Development Geographical Landscape 64% of surveyed customers are comfortable with using non-OEM parts, due to: • Lower product price • Quality is perceived to be equivalent to OEM parts Brand awareness is closely linked to quality perception Develop a targeted and relevant value proposition to ensure brand awareness in the emerging independent aftermarket Workshop equipment suppliers will benefit from branded service providers and independent workshop equipment upgrade demand, while independent aftermarket parts and accessories brands will need to closely follow the development of this channel to benefit from its development Track the development of the channel, identify relevant distributors and develop partnerships with them With large populations, low average household income, low overall vehicle ownership rates and high second hand car transactions, the North and Northeast will be the key regions outside of Bangkok driving demand for independent aftermarket services Prioritize the development of distribution coverage in regions where demand growth is expected to be highest Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis
  • 23. Build · Compete · Grow23 consulting.bc@ipsos.com 1 2 3Distribution Optimization Competition in IAM Consumer Purchasing Challenges faced by parts players: • Identifying qualified distributors to partner with • Tracking and controlling distributors’ channels for purchases and sales Stabilize and identify relevant partners to become distributors through standardized screening procedures Grow modern channels to generate opportunities for direct selling and enforcing greater control on product sales channels Consumers’ preference shift towards OEM genuine products • Perceived to be higher quality and reliable products • End channels enjoy higher margins and turnover • Localize and re-assess product offerings • Redefine price positioning • Enhance branding and communications with end channels and users Consumers’ level of parts knowledge is highly influenced by workshop mechanics • Mechanics prioritize genuine products for parts critical to vehicle engine and usage • Consumers remain loyal to trusted and reliable mechanics and particular brands • Consumers show minimal willingness to learn or try new brands Target promotional strategies toward mechanics to ensure that they recommend specific parts brands Players in Indonesia should focus on retail channel coverage, navigating the growth of OEM genuine parts and targeting workshop mechanics as consumers’ key influencers
  • 24. Build · Compete · Grow24 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Parts manufacturers/distributors, aftermarket service providers and auto insurance companies are the key stakeholders in the automotive aftermarket value chain Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN • 1st Tier • 2nd/ 3rd Tier • Car manufacturers • OEM parts suppliers • Authorized vehicle dealers • Independent vehicle dealers • Parts producers/ distributors • Aftermarket service providers • Auto insurance companies • Second-hand car dealers • Vehicle recycling service providers • Car leasing companies • Car financing companies Raw Material & Parts Manufacturing Financial Services Aftermarket Used Car Sales RecyclingNew Car Sales AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET KEY STAKEHOLDERS Aftermarket service • 3S/4S • Branded workshops • Independent workshops ⁻ Certified ⁻ Uncertified Parts distribution • Parts manufacturers • Authorized dealers for genuine parts • Sole distributors and general distributors for aftermarket parts • Parts retail shops Related services Auto insurance companies:
  • 25. Build · Compete · Grow25 consulting.bc@ipsos.com M&A Opportunities in The Automotive Aftermarket Source: Ipsos Business Consulting analysis Synergy Benefits ‣ Increase credibility and reliability of independent workshops ‣ Facilitate and provide greater convenience for aftermarket service ‣ Boost the growth of the motor insurance market as a whole ‣ Decrease the operational cost of both workshops and insurance companies due to economy of scale if consolidated ‣ Maximize resources utilization with well-established sources for vehicle owners who seek service from independent workshops Synergy Benefits ‣ Decrease operational cost of workshops and increase profitability due to lower spare parts cost ‣ Ensure parts availability and shorten lead time delivery, thereby improving service and reducing customers’ waiting time ‣ Increase credibility of workshops as counterfeit issue is minimized ‣ Increase the growth of the automotive parts market as a whole ‣ Match the supply and demand needs for automotive parts INDEPENDENT WORKSHOPS INSURANCE COMPANIES PARTS DISTRIBUTORS/ MANUFACTURERS
  • 26. Build · Compete · Grow26 consulting.bc@ipsos.com About Ipsos Business Consulting Ipsos Business Consulting is the specialist consulting division of Ipsos, which is ranked third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people. We have the ability to conduct consulting engagements in more than 100 countries. Our team of consultants has been serving clients worldwide through our 21 consulting "hubs" since 1994. Our suite of solutions has been developed using over 20 years of experience working on winning sales and marketing strategies for developed and emerging markets. There is no substitute for first-hand knowledge when it comes to understanding an industry. We draw on the detailed industry expertise of our consultants, which has accumulated through practical project execution. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research and consulting professionals. We have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist - NYSE-Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP Build · Compete · Grow At Ipsos Business Consulting we focus on maintaining our position as a leading provider of high quality consulting solutions for sales and marketing professionals. We deliver information, analysis and recommendations that allow our clients to make smarter decisions, and to develop and implement winning market strategies. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialization, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective, inspiring us to boldly call things into question, and to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest caliber of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. Our Solutions: Go-to-Market Market Sizing Business Unit Strategy Pricing Competitive Insights Forecasting Partner Evaluation Brand Strategy & Value Innovation Scouting B2B Customer Segmentation Optimal Channel Strategy Sales Detector
  • 27. Build · Compete · Grow27 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Proven track record in the automotive sector Our Clients Other Vehicle Related Products • Tires • Lubricants • Accessories • Paints • Charging stations PV OEM • Luxury vehicles • Mass market Vehicle Parts Including • Filters • Propeller shaft • Air bags • Starters • Alternators • Batteries • Turbocharger CV OEM Off-Highway • Excavator • Bulldozer • Forklift • Dump truck CV OEM On-highway (Truck and Bus) • Light duty • Medium duty • Heavy duty 2 Wheeler, 3 Wheeler • Luxury motorcycles • E-Scooters • ATV / SSV Other Vehicle Related Services • Fuel Management Solutions (CV) • Connected cars - Innovative auto service model development • Intellectual property strategy • Automotive finance and leasing OUR EXPERTISE AND CAPABILITIES
  • 28. Build · Compete · Grow28 consulting.bc@ipsos.com Regularly published thought leadership showcasing our automotive industry expertise PROVEN TRACK RECORD IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR TRENDS IN CHINA’S AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENT MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY CONNECTED CARS - DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE REVENUE STREAMS TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THAILAND AND INDONESIA’S EMERGING AFTERMARKET THE BOOM OF CHINA’S AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET IS IMMINENT
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