Understanding the EU Referendum through IRT

2EU Ref IRT study| June 2016 | Final | Public
Overview
Implicit Reaction TimeTM (IRT) measures the speed at which people express an opinion. In the
context of Brexit this helps us understand the strength of feeling people hold towards leaving
or staying in the European Union. It also identifies areas of weak association that indicate
potential differences between what people say and how they will vote on 23rd June.
Ipsos MORI conducted an IRT module among 690 adults aged 18-75 online 24th-31st May
2016, testing strength of feeling towards the EU across 11 issues. We found that:
 The Leave vote may be overstated: although those voting Leave are more explicit in
stating that their option would be better for Britain, they are no more emphatic than
Remain voters.
 Yet, turnout will be key: The proportion of those agreeing, and agreeing emphatically, that
leaving the EU would be better is higher among those certain to vote than those who are
unsure.
 Both sides of the debate have convinced supporters of positive long-term, economic
visions: in contrast, neither are fully convincing on likely short-term and personal impact.
 Voters find it more difficult to judge, and are less emphatic towards, immigration: the
biggest gap between explicit and implicit reaction, even among Leave supporters, appears
when judging which outcome would be better for immigration.

EU Ref IRT study| June 2016 | Final | Public 3
Introduction to
Implicit Reaction Time

What is Implicit Reaction Time (IRT)?
• Based on the scientific principle of perceptual
fluency, IRT reveals the strength of
respondents' unconscious associations,
by using response time to measure
the distance between two concepts within a
neural network.
• The closer the association between two
concepts (for example, ‘the British economy’
and ‘leaving the EU’), the more conviction
we have and the more quickly and easily we
are able to respond.
• When things are not closely associated,
response times are slow, because it takes
more time for us to reconcile or work out the
relationship between the two concepts.
We process information in two
ways:
• System 1 “is the brain’s fast,
automatic, intuitive approach,
• System 2 “the mind’s slower,
analytical mode, where
reason dominates.”

Why is this important for Brexit?
• A significant amount of the decisions we make are
subconscious. Capturing the strength of feeling
towards leaving and staying in the EU helps us
understand which emotions will hold true as
voters head to the polling booth.
• Voters may agree in principle that either leaving or
staying in the EU, but be subconsciously less
convinced. For example, areas of weak association
among current Leave voters may indicate risk areas
where they will opt, instead, to vote for the status
quo.
• On both sides, IRT helps us identify which
arguments are not resonating with voters or are
doubted. We can also spot which are universally
accepted and which have niche appeal.
• Comparisons by voting intention allow us to
unpick which messages appeal to each side, and
how those who are undecided feel about the EU.
Although the number is
falling, as of mid-May 2016,
25%
said they may change their
mind on how they will vote
in the EU referendum
In the 2015 General
Election, between
11% - 17%
said they made up their
mind on the day of the
election

Findings

1
Although those
voting Leave are more explicit
in stating that their option
would be better for Britain,
they are no more emphatic than
Remain voters.
• On average, across all attributes and
scenarios, only 17% of people answer
very quickly and have a strong conviction
about how the outcome of the
referendum will impact Britain.
• Leave voters are more likely to agree with
the benefits of their preferred option (on
average 75% agree compared to 62% of
Remain voters).
• However, they are no more confident in
their assertions (on average 36% are very
quick to agree compared to 33% of
Remain voters).
• This suggests that there is greater doubt
in how they will vote among those voting
to leave than those voting to stay in the
EU.

Leave voters are more likely to agree that
their preferred option is the best, but are no
more emphatic in this belief than Remain
33%
36%
29%
39%
9%
4%
4%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
% Agree emphatically % Agree, with some doubt
% Disagree, with some doubt % Disagree emphatically
(All Remain voters; average
across all attributes)
Staying in the EU would be
better for Britain
(All Leave voters; average
across all attributes)
Leaving the EU would be
better for Britain
Base: All (690); vote remain (310); vote leave (286); adults aged 18-75 online; 24 -31st May 2016
A significant proportion of leave
voters are slow to agree with the
benefits of leaving the EU

2
Those who are certain to vote
are more favourable towards
the Leave campaign than
those who say there is a
chance they may not vote
• The outcome of the referendum is
undoubtedly tied closely to voter
turnout.
• Those who are uncertain whether they
will vote have stronger positive
associations with remaining in the EU.
• Filtering the sample to only those who
are certain to vote presents a much
tighter race where more voters agree,
and agree emphatically that leaving the
EU would be better for Britain.

Filtering by those certain to vote tightens the
race in both stated and emphatic support
21%
22%
19%
15%
19%
24%
19%
18%
22%
18%
15%
16%
17%
16%
10%
15%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree emphatically Agree, with some doubt
Disagree, with some doubt Disagree emphatically
Base: All (690); undecided (130); adults aged 18-75 online; 24 -31st May 2016
All certain
to vote
(438)
All not
certain to
vote (237)
Remaining
would be better*
Leaving would
be better*
Remaining
would be better*
Leaving would
be better*
The proportion of those agreeing, and agreeing
emphatically, that leaving the EU would be better
is higher among those certain to vote
* Average across all attributes

3
Both Remain and Leave voters
are certain their preferred option
would be best for the economy;
but although the Remain
camp owns arguments on trade,
voters on both sides are
unconvinced about the impact
on their own standard of living
• Voters who have already made up their
minds are very confident about the
economy. Although the referendum is
seen largely as a debate about economy
vs immigration, Leave voters are already
convinced that Britain’s economy will be
better outside of the EU.
• However, Leave voters doubt that leaving
the EU would be better for trade. And are
slightly less confident than Remain voters
about the impact on them personally.
• However those who state that the
economy, trade and personal standard of
living are important in deciding their
vote, are more likely, and more confident,
in judging Remain to be better for Britain
in each of these areas.

Both remain and leave voters are certain
of the impact on British economy overall
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better
for British
economy
(79% vs 44%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better
for British
economy
(78% vs 45%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned
Niche
Appeal
12
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to
vote leave (286); adults aged 18-75 online; 24 -31st May
2016)
EXPLICIT Agree % (proportion who agree overall)
EMPHATICAgree%
(proportionwhorespondquickly)

Remain camp owns arguments on trade
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better
for trade with
other countries
(85% vs 59%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better
for trade with
other countries
(59% vs 20%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned
Niche
Appeal
13
EMPHATICAgree%
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote
leave (286); adults aged 18-75 online; 24 -31st May 2016)

Voters on both sides much less sure about
impact on own standard of living
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better
for own standard
of living
(63% vs 33%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better
for own standard
of living
(58% vs 28%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned
Niche
Appeal
14
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote
leave (286); adults aged 18-75 online; 24 -31st May 2016)
EMPHATICAgree%

Confidence in judging economy overall does
not translate into confidence in
judging impact on own standard of living
38%
22%
30%
15%
Leaving / staying would be…
better for the British Economy
Leaving / staying would be …
better for my own standard of living
% gave a valid response (either agree or disagree)
% gave an emphatic response (very quickly either agree or disagree)
Base: All (690); adults aged 18-75 online; 24 -31st May 2016
Average across all scenarios

4
Voters find it difficult
to judge immigration - neither
side are fully convincing
• Those voting leave have a much stronger
association with immigration than those
voting to remain. However, this is slightly
weaker than associations with other
issues such as the economy overall of
control over important issues.
• A positive impact on immigration if
Britain stayed in the EU is not on the
radar of Remain voters, who find it very
difficult to judge the merits of either
outcome on the issues of immigration or
welfare.
• Overall, close to twice as many voters
give an emphatic response when judging
the economy than when judging
immigration.

Despite being key to the campaign, relatively
few leave voters are convinced on immigration
Remain voters:
agree staying
would reduce total
amount of
immigration
(21% vs 6%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would reduce total
amount of
immigration
(89% vs 38%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned
Niche
Appeal
17
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
A gap of 51% is the biggest
difference between emphatic and
explicit in the dataset.
In comparison, ‘control over
important issues’ was 93% explicit vs
51% emphatic.
EMPHATICAgree%

Despite the same explicit response, around
half are emphatic about immigration
compared to the economy
38%
22%
38%
12%
better for the British economy
Leaving / staying would reduce the
total amount of immigration

5
Voters on both sides are
convinced of the long-term
benefits for their preferred
option, but are not confident
about the short-term
impact on Britain.
• Voters on both Leave and Remain sides
are more confident in the long-term
rather than the short-term benefits of
their preferred option.
• However this difference is particularly
apparent among Leave voters who
appear nervous about the short-term
impact on Britain.
• This suggests that voters on both sides,
but particularly those voting to leave, are
voting for a bigger picture and willing to
take some risk for potential short-term
negative impact.

Campaigns owning long-term not short-term
vision for Britain: gap is wider for leavers
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better in
the long-term
(81% vs 50%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better in
the long-term
(92% vs 53%)
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better in
the short-term
(67% vs 27%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better in
the short-term
(53% vs 22%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned
Niche
Appeal
20
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
EMPHATICAgree%

Voters are less certain of the short-term
impact of leaving or staying in the EU
40%
22%
35%
14%
better for Britain in the long-term
better for Britain in the short-term

Method note

Methods - 1
Implicit Reaction Time™ by Ipsos & NEUROHM is the
second generation of latency measures. It
incorporates a ‘noise’ reduction algorithm to control
individual differences in the speed of the
neurotransmission as well as for the level of fatigue
or length of words:
• Participants were exposed to stimulus and then
underwent a calibration exercise to account for
individual variation such as computer speed,
motor skills.
• For both the Leave and Remain campaign,
participants were shown set of flagship
statements associated with the key arguments of
the referendum.
• Participants responded using a scale this allows
us to capture both their explicit and implicit
response.
• We analysed the speed with which they answer
the scale to uncover their unconscious conviction
-2
0
-1 1
2
Agree
Hard to tell
Completely
disagree
Disagree
Completely
agree
Better for UK
Economy
Leaving the EU would be…

Methods - 2
BE BETTER FOR BRITAIN IN THE LONG-TERM
BE BETTER FOR BRITAIN IN THE SHORT-TERM
BE BETTER FOR BRITAIN’S CONTROL OVER IMPORTANT ISSUES
BE BETTER FOR BRITAIN’S INFLUENCE IN THE WORLD
BE BETTER FOR BRITAIN’S SAFETY
BE BETTER FOR BRITAIN’S TRADE WITH OTHER COUNTRIES
BE BETTER FOR MY OWN STANDARD OF LIVING
BE BETTER FOR PUBLIC SERVICES
BE BETTER FOR THE BRITISH ECONOMY
REDUCE BRITAIN’S WELFARE BILL
REDUCE THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF IMMIGRATION
• Fieldwork took place 24 -31st May, with 690 adults aged 18-75 online, UK
• Data has been weighted by age, gender, region and work status
• Each participant completed IRT modules for both Leave and Remain scenarios
• In each scenario, respondents were asked extent to which they agree or disagree with
each of the following statements about leaving / staying in the European Union

EU Ref IRT study| June 2016 | Final | Public
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
25
Bobby Duffy
Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research
Institute
bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
0207 347 3000
For further information, please contact:
Steven Ginnis
Associate Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research
Institute
steven.ginnis@ipsos.com
0207 347 3000

Understanding the EU Referendum through IRT

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