As the UK government prepares to begin formal negotiations to leave the European Union and the SNP prepares for its forthcoming spring conference, our new poll for STV News shows voters split down the middle in their constitutional preference. Among those who expressed a voting preference and who would be very likely or certain to vote in an immediate referendum, 50% (+2pts) said they would support independence with the other 50% of voters (-2pts) saying they would back Scotland remaining in the UK.

1. March 2017
SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION
MONITOR

2. INDYREF2

3. 3
IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
49%51%
YES
NO
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
50%50%
All giving VI
All giving VI and
Certain/likely to vote
Base: All giving voting intention = 954. All giving voting intention and certain to vote = 858; Data collected among
1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION (VI)
Support for independence

4. 4
IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
YES
NO
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: All giving a voting intention = 954; Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+,
24 Feb- 6 March 2017
54%
46%
44%
56%
Support by gender

5. 5
IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN
INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
YES
NO
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
40%
60%
64%
36%
59%
41%
49%
51%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
Support by age
Base: All giving a voting intention = 954; Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+,
24 Feb- 6 March 2017

6. 6
IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
YES
NO
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Support by levels of deprivation
61%
39%
41%
59%
20% Most deprived
areas
20% Least deprived
areas
Base: All giving a voting intention = 954; Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+,
24 Feb- 6 March 2017

7. 7
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: All - 1029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017
ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10 WHERE 1 MEANS ‘I COMPLETELY SUPPORT SCOTLAND BECOMING
INDEPENDENT’ AND 10 MEANS ‘I COMPLETELY SUPPORT SCOTLAND STAYING PART OF THE UK’
WHAT NUMBER WOULD YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF TO BE?
Support for independence
28% 3% 7% 2% 7% 3% 5% 5% 2% 38%
2 3 4 51 6 7 8 9 10
Completely
support
independence
Completely
support the
union

8. BREXIT

9. 9
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
48%
27%
17%
8%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017
IF THERE IS A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM AND SCOTLAND VOTES TO BECOME AN
INDEPENDENT COUNTRY, WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND AND THE EUROPEAN UNION?
An independent Scotland and the EU
Scotland should be a full member of the
European Union
Scotland should have full access to the
European single market we have at the
moment but not be a full member of the
European Union
Scotland should not be a member of the
European Union nor have full access to the
European single market
Don’t know/ refused

10. 10
AND THINKING ABOUT THE UK’S DECISION TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION AFTER THE
REFERENDUM LAST YEAR, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING:
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: All. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017
Brexit process
24%
34%
52%
52%
59%
50%
37%
40%
14%
13%
9%
6%
3%
4%
2%
2%
Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Don't know
The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is
doing a good job in representing
Scotland’s interests in the process of
the UK leaving the EU
The Prime Minister Theresa May is
doing a good job in representing
Scotland’s interests in the process of
the UK leaving the EU
The Prime Minister Theresa May is
doing a good job in representing the
UK’s interests in the process of leaving
the EU
Once the negotiations for the UK
leaving the EU finish, there should be
another referendum across the UK to
either accept or reject the deal

11. LOCAL ELECTIONS

12. 12
Local elections
IN ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL COUNCILS IN SCOTLAND YOU PLACE THE CANDIDATES WHO ARE
STANDING IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE. I AM GOING TO READ OUT A LIST OF PARTIES, ONCE I
HAVE FINISHED COULD YOU TELL ME WHICH PARTY YOU WOULD GIVE YOUR FIRST VOTE TO IF THE
ELECTION WAS BEING HELD TOMORROW.
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
46%
18%
17%
8%
6%4%
1%
All giving a voting intention
All giving a voting intention and likely
to vote
SNP lead +28 SNP lead +27
SNP
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
GREEN
LIB DEM
UKIP
OTHER
46%
19%
17%
8%
6%
3%
1%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 958 . All giving a voting intention and likely to vote = 785 Data collected among 1,029
Scottish adults 16+, 24 February- 6 March 2017

13. 13
Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,029 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 24 February – 6 March 2017
Data are weighted by: age, sex, educational qualifications and working status using census data;
tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,029) unless otherwise stated.
Contact us: Mark Diffley: mark.diffley@ipsos.com;
0131 220 5699