Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: January 2015
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This document summarizes the results of a January 2015 Scottish Public Opinion Monitor survey conducted by Ipsos MORI. Key findings include: - The SNP has a large lead over other parties in voting intention for a UK general election, at 51% compared to 25% for Labour and 13% for the Conservatives. - First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Deputy First Minister John Swinney have high satisfaction ratings of 69% and 43% respectively, while satisfaction is lower for UK party leaders. - Appointment of Jim Murphy as new Scottish Labour leader makes little difference in voting intention for most, with 48% saying it makes no difference and 16% saying it makes them less likely to vote Labour.
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: January 2015
- 1. 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Scottish Public Opinion Monitor January 2015
- 2. 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Westminster Parliament voting
- 3. 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. How would you vote if there were a UK General Election tomorrow? General Election – Voting Intention Base: All giving a voting intention = 874; all certain to vote = 650. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th-19th January 2015 SNP 51% Lab 25% Cons 13% Lib Dem 4% Green 5% Others 3% All giving a voting intention SNP 52% Lab 24% Cons 12% Lib Dem 4% Others 3% Green 4% Certain to vote SNP lead +26 SNP lead +28
- 4. 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Perceptions of key figures
- 5. 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here 36% 42% Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing her/his job as First Minister/Deputy First Minister? Satisfaction with FM/Deputy FM Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net satisfaction 49% 16% 65% 67% 31% 47% 21% 32% 27% 64% 19% 43% 3% 6% 34% 36% 5% Nicola Sturgeon John Swinney 69% 20% 43% 30%27% 7% Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015 11%
- 6. 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Willie Rennie 42% Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as / Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/? Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19tth January 2015 Jim Murphy Ruth Davidson Patrick Harvie Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net satisfaction -8% -4% 21% -16% 34% 20% 47% 38% 38% 36% 17% 28% 45% 44% 30% 38% 6% 32 %
- 7. 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here 36% 42% Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of Labour Party Satisfaction with UK party leaders Ed Miliband Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Net satisfaction -40% -51% -45% 65% 67% 47% 32% 27% 64% 43% 3% 6% 34% 5% David Cameron Nick Clegg 27% 67% 5% 18% 13%69% 21% 66% 13% Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015
- 8. 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Satisfaction with party leaders trend 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Jim Murphy Nick Clegg Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron Ed Milliband Nicola Sturgeon John Swinney Jim Murphy, 34% Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. John Swinney, 43%
- 9. 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Nick Clegg Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron Ed Miliband Nicola Sturgeon Jim Murphy John Swinney John Swinney, 16% Jim Murphy, -4% Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
- 10. 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Q. As you may know, Jim Murphy was elected as the new leader of the Scottish Labour Party in December 2014. Does his appointment make you more likely or less likely to vote for the Labour Party at the UK General Election in May? Does it make you…. General Election – Impact of new Labour leader Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015 7% 13% 48% 9% 19% A lot more likely A little more likely Makes no difference A little less likely A lot less likely
- 11. 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo hereTechnical details • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents (adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 12th-19th January 2015 • Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless otherwise stated
- 12. 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 @IpsosMORIScot