The February Ipsos MORI Political Monitor records the public’s economic optimism at its highest since May 1997 when Tony Blair and New Labour had just moved into Downing Street. Half (50%) of Britons believe the state of the economy will improve in the next year. One in four (24%) think the economy will get worse, giving an Economic Optimism Index score (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of +26 the highest since 1997. Full poll: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3339/Economic-optimism-at-highest-since-1997-as-Cameron-opens-up-lead-over-Miliband-on-dealing-with-the-economy-and-unemployment.aspx

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
February 2014
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
3
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
All giving a voting
intention: 81%
All certain to vote: 56%
9%
Labour
10%
9%
31%
10%
31%
Conservative
Lib Dem
11%
12%
UKIP
Other
39%
Conservative lead = -8
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014, all certain to vote = 592
38%
Conservative lead = -7
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

4. Voting Intentions August ‘03 – February ‘14
(all certain to vote)
4
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005
Howard elected General
Brown as PM
(Jun 07)
(Nov 03)
Election
Cameron elected
50
(Dec 05)
2010
General
Election
40
38%
30
31%
20
12%
10%
10
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
Aug-05
May-05
Feb-05
Nov-04
Aug-04
May-04
Feb-04
Nov-03
Aug-03
0
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
6
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
Swing from
Net
January
% Dissatisfied
% Satisfied
satisfaction
2014
David Cameron
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
55
64
41
59
-18
-2
-39
-5.5
31
-21
+0.5
31
-10
-4
32
-27
+0.5
25
52
Nigel Farage
The Government
37
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
0
Campbell
10
Farage
40
30
Miliband
Brown
% satisfied
Cameron
50
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
37%
31%
31%
25%
20
General
Election
Clegg elected
(Jan 08)
70
7
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – February ‘14
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
60
Clegg

8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
8
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction
CAMERON
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
THATCHER
BROWN
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAJOR
BLAIR
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9. David Cameron (satisfaction)
9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
February 2006 – February 2014
February 2014
Don’t know
Satisfied
70
8%
Dissatisfied
60
50
37%
40
30
Satisfied
20
55%
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = -18
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
10
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
February 2006 – February 2014
February 2014
Don’t know
5%
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
20%
76%
Net = +56
Base: 266 Conservative supporters 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
11
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
Net satisfaction
CAMERON (2005-2010)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
February 2014
October 2010 – February 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
70
16%
Dissatisfied
60
31%
50
40
30
20
Satisfied
10
0
52%
Dissatisfied
Net = -21
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
13
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
February 2014
Don’t know
October 2010 – February 2014
Satisfied
70
13%
60
Satisfied
50
40
52%
30
20
35%
Dissatisfied
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = +17
Base: 308 Labour supporters 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
February 2014
Don’t know
February 2008 – February 2014
Satisfied
11%
70
Dissatisfied
60
25%
50
40
30
20
10
Satisfied
0
64%
Dissatisfied
Net = -39
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15. Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
15
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
February 2014
Don’t know
7%
February 2008 – February 2014
Satisfied
47%
46%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Dissatisfied
Net = +1
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 93 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 1 st -3rd February 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16. Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
16
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
All
UKIP supporters
Don’t know
Satisfied
Don’t know
Satisfied
14%
29%
31%
Dissatisfied
12%
74%
Dissatisfied
41%
Net = -10
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 84 UKIP supporters, 1st -3rd February 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Net = +62
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17. The economy

18. Economic Optimism Index
18
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
February 2014
80
Don’t know
3%
Get worse
Improve
70
60
Get worse
Stay the same
50
24%
40
50%
30
20
0
Stay the same
Improve
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
10
23%
EOI = +26
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19. -80
May-97
Aug-97
Nov-97
Feb-98
May-98
Aug-98
Nov-98
Feb-99
May-99
Aug-99
Nov-99
Feb-00
May-00
Aug-00
Nov-00
Feb-01
May-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Feb-02
May-02
Aug-02
Nov-02
Feb-03
May-03
Aug-03
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
Index (get better minus get worse)
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
+28
-46
-60
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
19
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
40
+23
+26
20
0
-20
-40
-48
-56
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20. Leaders

21. Leaders on key issues- trend
21
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to…
Miliband
Cameron
Clegg
Farage
Change since May 2013
42%
…deal with managing the
economy
-3
20%
5%
n/c
3%
-2
33%
…deal with reducing
unemployment
28%
6%
-3
-3
23%
19%
-5
+2
+2
8%
20%
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
+4
n/c
4%
…deal with immigration
+5
-5
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22. Leaders on key issues
22
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to…
Cameron
Clegg
Miliband
Farage
21%
...deal with regulation for banks
and bankers' bonuses
29%
10%
6%
21%
...look after the interests of
women
28%
12%
3%
29%
...handle disagreements within
his party
22%
7%
8%
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23. Higher rate of tax

24. Higher rate of income tax
24
As you may know, in 2012 the present government reduced the top rate of income tax from 50p in the pound to 45p in the pound, for
those people earning over £150,000 a year. Some people argue that high tax rates are not very effective in raising money, and that they
harm the economy by putting people off doing business in Britain but others argue that it is unfair to give tax cuts to rich people, and
that a higher tax rate is a fairer way of cutting the deficit.
Which of the following, if any, do you think is the right rate of income tax that should be charged on income over £150,000 a year?
41%
50p in the pound
Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls’ policy of 50p in the
pound
45p in the pound
Chancellor George Osborne’s policy of 45p in the
pound
40p in the pound
London Mayor Boris Johnson’s policy of 40p in
the pound
40%
27%
28%
24%
26%
Half of respondents asked
Half of respondents asked
Base: split sample question, 521 and 491 British adults 18+, 1 st – 3rd February 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor