Ipsos MORI’s 2019 predictions poll finds that Britons do not expect the political landscape to settle down, with 72% of UK adults saying they think a general election is likely in 2019. The poll, among UK adults aged 16-75, also found that 75% expect the UK to leave the EU this year, but 6 in 10 (58%, rising to 72% of leave voters) think it likely that other countries may follow suit by holding a vote on leaving the EU.
Sadly, it seems that whatever this year brings, people think a more harmonious Britain is unlikely, with 68% of us saying society will not be less divided by Brexit in 2019. Remain voters are particularly pessimistic: only 17% of remain voters expect divisions to heal, compared with 29% of Leave voters.
Economic concerns also play a part in Britons’ predictions for 2019. Six in ten (57%) think that the pound will drop below the value of the euro. There is a clear division between these beliefs by opinions on Brexit: 73% of remain voters think the pound will fall below the euro, vs. 46% Leave voters. Seven in ten (73%) think that one of Britain’s top 100 companies will move its HQ out of Britain because of Brexit (88% of remainers and 63% of leave voters). Whilst 41% expect house prices to fall.
People also expect two themes from 2018 to continue in 2019. The British predict the fallout from #metoo to continue, with 62% saying it is likely that the head of one of Britain’s top 100 companies will have to resign because of sexual misconduct. And after the 2018 heatwave, environmental concerns haven’t gone away: half of us (52%) think that we will see the hottest summer on record in 2019.
On a lighter note…
The public still expect to see the Queen on the throne – less than 1 in 5 (17%) think it is likely that she will abdicate in 2019.
64% of us expect Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s first child to be a girl.
When it comes to this year’s Rugby World Cup just 30% of the English, and 17% of Scots think it is likely their team will raise the trophy, but the Welsh are more confident with 55% saying it’s likely their team will win.
In music, the Spice Girls announced a reunion tour for 2019 and despite the announcement that Victoria Beckham will not be joining the tour, a quarter of Britons still believe she will take part.
2. Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 2
October 2018
Politics
Predictions 2019
3. 3Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
5%
17%
22%
31%
19%
41%
50%
44%
36%
27%
19%
13%
32%
8%
4%
4%
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base 2263 UK adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th December 2018
Predictions 2019 Politics
VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY
The UK will leave the
European Union
There will be a General
Election
Another country will decide to
hold a vote on leaving the EU
Society will become less
divided over Brexit
4. 4Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
5%
19%
36%
32%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Society will
become less
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
24%
68%
VERY UNLIKELY
divided over
Brexit
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
REMAIN/LEAVE
SOCIAL GRADE
PARTY SUPPORT
30%
21%
58%
75%
DE
AB
25%
28%
71%
66%
Lab
Cons
30%
17%
64%
79%
Leave
Remain
5. 5Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
31%
44%
13%
4%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
The UK
will leave the
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
75%
17%
VERY UNLIKELY
European
Union
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
REMAIN/LEAVE
AGE
PARTY SUPPORT
80%
73%
13%
17%
55-75
16-24
73%
83%
19%
13%
Lab
Cons
82%
72%
13%
20%
Leave
Remain
6. 6Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
17%
41%
27%
8%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Another
country will
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
58%
35%
VERY UNLIKELY
decide to hold
a vote on
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
REMAIN/LEAVE
AGE
PARTY SUPPORT
69%
52%
26%
39%
55-75
16-24
55%
71%
40%
26%
Lab
Cons
72%
50%
23%
44%
Leave
Remain
leaving the
EU
7. 7Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
22%
50%
19%
4%
6%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
There
will be a
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
72%
23%
VERY UNLIKELY
General
Election
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
REMAIN/LEAVE
GENDER
PARTY SUPPORT
71%
72%
25%
21%
Men
Women
80%
64%
18%
31%
Lab
Cons
69%
75%
27%
21%
Leave
Remain
9. 9Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Predictions 2019 Economy
VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY
One of Britain’s biggest 100
companies will move its
headquarters out of the UK
because of Brexit
One pound will be worth less
than one euro
Average house prices will fall
in your area 11%
18%
27%
30%
39%
46%
36%
24%
15%
15%
9%
4%
10. 10Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
18%
39%
24%
9%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
One pound
will be worth
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
57%
33%
VERY UNLIKELY
less than
one euro
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
REMAIN/LEAVE
GENDER
PARTY SUPPORT
53%
63%
42%
26%
Men
Women
67%
45%
28%
48%
Lab
Cons
46%
73%
46%
22%
Leave
Remain
11. 11Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
27%
46%
15%
4%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
One of
Britain’s biggest
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
73%
19%
VERY UNLIKELY
100 companies
will move its
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
REMAIN/LEAVE
SOCIAL GRADE
PARTY SUPPORT
68%
78%
20%
18%
DE
AB
81%
70%
16%
24%
Lab
Cons
63%
87%
28%
8%
Leave
Remain
HQ out of the
UK because of
Brexit
12. 12Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
11%
30%
36%
15%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Average
house prices
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
41%
51%
VERY UNLIKELY
will fall in
your area
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
PARTY SUPPORT
AGE
45%
36%
49%
56%
Lab
Cons
40%
42%
43%
43%
37%
52%
49%
48%
50%
57%
55-75
45-54
35-44
25-34
16-24
13. Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public 13
Culture and
society
Predictions 2019
14. 14Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Predictions 2019 Culture and Society
VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY
Prince Harry and Meghan
Markle’s first child will be a girl
The head of one of Britain’s
biggest 100 companies will be
forced to resign because of
sexual misconduct
Victoria Beckham will join the
Spice Girls on their reunion tour
4%
4%
9%
16%
9%
13%
19%
43%
46%
55%
33%
34%
30%
21%
12%
44%
31%
7%
5%
3%
The Queen will abdicate the
throne
2019 will have the hottest
summer on record
15. 15Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
4%
13%
33%
44%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
The Queen
will abdicate
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
17%
77%
VERY UNLIKELY
the throne
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
SOCIAL GRADE
REMAIN/LEAVE
18%
14%
77%
80%
Leave
Remain
21%
17%
16%
14%
73%
72%
79%
82%
DE
C2
C1
AB
16. 16Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
9%
55%
12%
3%
22%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Prince Harry’s
and Meghan
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
64%
15%
VERY UNLIKELY
Markle’s first
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
CHILDREN IN HOUSEHOLD
GENDER
child will be a
girl
62%
66%
16%
14%
Men
Women
61%
68%
15%
14%
No
children
At least
one child
17. 17Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
16%
46%
21%
5%
12%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
The head of one
of Britain’s
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
62%
26%
VERY UNLIKELY
biggest 100
companies will be
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
GENDER
63%
61%
28%
25%
Men
Women
forced to resign
because of
sexual
misconduct 68%
64%
55%
60%
58%
21%
25%
30%
28%
30%
55-75
45-54
35-44
25-34
16-24
AGE
18. 18Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
4%
19%
34%
31%
11%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
Victoria
Bechha
m
Beckham will
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
23%
65%
VERY UNLIKELY
join the Spice
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
GENDER
Girls on their
reunion tour
18%
22%
23%
26%
32%
72%
66%
65%
64%
53%
55-75
45-54
35-44
25-34
16-24
25%
21%
62%
69%
Men
Women
AGE
19. 19Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
9%
43%
30%
7%
11%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 2263 GB adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
2019
will have
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
52%
37%
VERY UNLIKELY
the hottest
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
AGE
summer on
record
46%
58%
43%
32%
55-75
16-24
REGION
50%
59%
38%
31%
North England
London
REMAIN/LEAVE
49%
56%
42%
34%
Leave
Remain
20. 20Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base 107 Welsh, 179 Scottish, 1913 English, adults aged 16-75, conducted online,
14th-20th December 2018
Predictions 2019 The Rugby World Cup
VERY LIKELY FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY UNLIKELY VERY UNLIKELY
Wales will win the Rugby
World Cup
3%
5%
18%
14%
24%
36%
38%
41%
28%
34%
12%
8%
England will win the Rugby
World Cup
Scotland will win the Rugby
World Cup
21. 21Ipsos MORI Predictions 2019 | January 2019 | Public
5%
24%
41%
12%
17%
Source: Ipsos MORI
VERY LIKELY
FAIRLY LIKELY
DON’T KNOWBase 1913 English adults aged 16-75, conducted online, 14th-20th
December 2018
England will
win the
FOR EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE
STATE HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU
THINK THEY ARE TO HAPPEN…
FAIRLY UNLIKELY
UNLIKELY
LIKELY
NET
29%
53%
VERY UNLIKELY
Rugby World
GENDER
Cup
PARTY SUPPORT
Likelihood by key demographic
groups:
33%
27%
53%
53%
Men
Women
26%
35%
59%
51%
Lab
Cons
31%
24%
54%
59%
Leave
Remain
REMAIN/LEAVE