Ipsos MORI March 2019 Political Monitor

1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1
March 2019
POLITICAL MONITOR

March 2019
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: March 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,050 British adults 18+, 15– 19 March 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 733 Margin of
error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a
9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially
important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +4
38%
34%
8%
7%
4%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
UKIP
GREEN
36%
35%
8%
7%
4%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
UKIP
GREEN

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jun15
Jul15
Aug15
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 38%
LABOUR 34%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
Mar ‘19

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
Jul17
Oct17
Jan18
Apr18
Jul18
Oct18
Jan19
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – March ‘19
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 38%
LABOUR 34%
UKIP 7%
GREEN 4%
LIB DEM 8%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
Mar ‘19

March 2019
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY
LEADERS

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2019
Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
70%
10%
20%
42%
34%
24%
DISSATISFIED
DON’T KNOW
SATISFIED
-5.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 +2.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 -0.5% SWING FROM FEB 2019 -13% SWING FROM FEB 2019
NET=-50 NET=-18 NET=-75NET=-36
65%
6%
29%
11%
3%
86
%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE
LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.
Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – March 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
2016 EU Ref
% satisfied
MAY 29%
CORBYN 20%
CABLE 24%
GENERAL
ELECTION
March ‘19

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY
CAMERON
BROWN
MAJOR
BLAIR
THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
NETSATISFACTION
May
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)
Corbyn
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER
NETSATISFACTION
CORBYN
BLAIR
SMITH
KINNOCK
MILLIBAND
FOOT
CAMERON
DUNCAN-SMITH
HAGUE
HOWARD

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)
Theresa May’s Government
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT
NETSATISFACTION
MAY’S GOV
BLAIR’S GOV
MAJOR’S GOV
CAMERON’S GOV
THATCHER’S GOV
BROWN’S GOV

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
March 2019 August 2016 – March 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
65% Dissatisfied
6% Don’t know
29% Satisfied
NET = -36
Satisfaction
DISSATISFIED 65%
SATISFIED 29%
%
Base: 1,050 British adults 18+ 15-19 March 2019

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Base: 324 Conservative supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019
March 2019 August 2016 – March 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
32% Dissatisfied
5% Don’t know
63% Satisfied
NET = +31
DISSATISFIED 32%
SATISFIED 63%
Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
%

Jeremy Corbyn
March 2019 September 2015 – March 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
.
SATISFIED 20%
DISSATISFIED 70%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -50
Satisfaction
70% Dissatisfied
10% Don’t know
20% Satisfied
%

Jeremy Corbyn
Base: 262 Labour supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = +2
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
40% Dissatisfied
18% Don’t know
42% Satisfied
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 40%
%

Vince Cable
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
DISSATISFIED 42%
SATISFIED 24%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
NET = -18
42% Dissatisfied
34% Don’t know
24% Satisfied
Satisfaction
%

March 2019
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
March 2019
EOI = -42
58%
20%
16%
6%
GET WORSE
STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same
Get worse
Improve
%
January 2007 – March 2019
Mar-19
Mar ‘19

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Oct1998
Jul1999
Apr2000
Jan2001
Oct2001
Jul2002
Apr2003
Jan2004
Oct2004
Jul2005
Apr2006
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Apr2015
Jan2016
Oct2016
Jul2017
Apr2018
Jan2019
NET OPTIMISM=-42
Mar2019
Mar ‘19

March 2019
POTENTIAL
PRIME MINISTERS
AND CONSERVATIVE
LEADERSHIP

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Ministerial material?
13%
15%
19%
19%
22%
24%
21%
30%
49%
59%
53%
49%
47%
64%
67%
57%
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt
Amber Rudd
Sajid Javid
Boris Johnson
Jeremy Corbyn
Theresa May
AGREE DISAGREE AGREE
NET
-27
-46
-40
-25
-30
-34
-44
-36

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Ministerial material? Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn
30%
28%
55%
44%
34%
33%
17%
23%
30% 31%
27%
0%
25%
50%
75%
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
% AGREE
THERESA MAY 30%
JEREMY CORBYN 21%
JUL‘14
JUL’15
JUL’16
APR’18
JUL‘18
SEP‘18
MAR‘19

Prime Ministerial material? Theresa May and Conservative challengers
30%
28%
55%
44%
34% 33%
11%
13%
12%
10% 11%
15%
14%
19% 17%
32% 32%
21%
17%
25% 25%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
% AGREE
THERESA MAY 30%
JUL‘14
JUL’15
JUL’16
APR’18
JUL‘18
SEP‘18
MAR‘19
BORIS JOHNSON 24%
AMBER RUDD 19%
SAJID JAVID 22%
MICHAEL GOVE 15%
JEREMY HUNT 19%
DOMINIC RAAB 13%

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
20%
30%
31%
32%
32%
32%
60%
44%
45%
38%
58%
40%
36%
30%
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Amber Rudd
Boris Johnson
Sajid Javid
Jeremy Hunt
Theresa May
AGREE DISAGREE AGREE
NET
+30
-4
-8
-26
-7
-15
-24
Among Conservative party supporters
Base: 324 Conservative party supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019

43%
45%
81% 81%
63% 61%
14% 16%
20%
14%
21%
22% 22%
18%
26%
47% 47%
23% 26%
31%
39%
21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
% AGREE
THERESA MAY 60%
JUL‘14
JUL’15
JUL’16
APR’18
JUL‘18
SEP‘18
MAR‘19
BORIS JOHNSON 32%
AMBER RUDD 31%
SAJID JAVID 32%
MICHAEL GOVE 30%
Among Conservative party supporters
Base: 324 Conservative party supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019
JEREMY HUNT 32%
DOMINIC RAAB 20%

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT JEREMY CORBYN HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Corbyn - Prime Ministerial material? Among Labour party supporters
26%
47%
67%
62%
57%
34% 45%
21%
32%
29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
DISAGREE 33%
JUL’15
JUL’16
APR’18
JUL‘18
SEP‘18
MAR‘19
AGREE 52%
Base: 262 Labour party supporters 18+ 15-19 March 2019

WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER?
Conservative party leadership
Base: 1,050 British adults 18+, 324 Conservative party supporters, 15-19 March 2019
POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS
ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
THE EU BUT BEFORE THE
AFTER THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION
DON’T KNOW
29%
30%
32%
9%
Mar ‘19 Sep ‘18
17%
39%
36%
8%
POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS
ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
THE EU BUT BEFORE THE
AFTER THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION
DON’T KNOW
16%
36%
39%
9%
Mar ‘19 Sep ‘18
GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
36%
30%
24%
9%

March 2019
BREXIT

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
Britain’s economy over
26%
38%
26%
27%
15%
9%
13%
11%
49%
49%
55%
59%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
Mar 2019
39%
55%
45%
49%
11%
11%
10%
9%
35%
24%
34%
34%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
Mar 2019
the next five years
Britain’s economy over
the next ten to
twenty years
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED
TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION,
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK
IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR
XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE?
The impact of
Brexit on the
economy
BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE

NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR
WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
WORSE 39%
BETTER 27%
MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE 31%
21%
18%
20%
18% 18%
36%
49%
37% 36%
43%
41%
39%
24%
40% 41%
32%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Impact of Brexit Own standards of living
Mar ‘19
V V V V

Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
Britain’s ability to make
59%
59%
55%
58%
15%
16%
17%
12%
20%
21%
24%
25%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
Mar 2019
47%
51%
24%
20%
22%
21%
Dec 2018
Mar 2019
decisions in its own best
Britain’s control over
immigration from the
EU
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED
TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION,
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK
IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR
XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE?
The impact of
Brexit on Britain’s
sovereignty
BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE
interests

Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’’’
NOT CONFIDENT 79%
CONFIDENT 18%
44%
36% 35%
37%
34%
30%
25%
28%
19%
23% 21%
51%
60% 60%
59%
63%
67%
72%
70%
78%
69%
77%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Mar ‘19
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
c

67%
73%
66%
67%
56%
47% 45%
34%
39%
36%
33%
26%
30% 32%
43%
51% 53%
64%
54%
62%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month
* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’,
NOT CONFIDENT 60%
CONFIDENT 37%
Among Conservative supporters
Mar ‘19

Base: c. 1,000 British adults, circa 300 Labour party supporters 18+ each month
29%
33%
28%
21%
67%
63%
67%
76%
July 2017
Mar 2018
Sep 2018
Mar 2019
AND IF JEREMY CORBYN WAS PRIME
MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL,
WOULD YOU BE THAT HE WOULD GET A
GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS
WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?
Confidence in Corbyn
to get a good deal
for Britain
CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT
GENERAL PUBLIC
57%
63%
59%
49%
40%
33%
39%
46%
July 2017
Mar 2018
Sep 2018
Mar 2019
AMONG LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS

DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING HAS DONE A
GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT
HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT
FROM THE EUROPEAN
UNION?
c
Handling Britain’s
exit from the
European Union
27%
32%
30%
9%
36%
56%
65%
85%
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
THE GOVERNMENT
THERESA MAY
THE EUROPEAN UNION
YOUR LOCAL MP

Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union
THERESA MAY
-11%
-20% -16%
-27%
-16%
16%
9%
-20%
-23%
-7%
26% 23%
32%
41%
67%
50%
31%
51%
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Mar ‘19
DO YOU THINK XXX HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?
c
NOV‘16
DEC‘16
MAR‘17
JUL‘17
MAR‘18
MAR‘19
NET GOOD JOB
AMONG CONSERVATIVES 19%
THE GOVERNMENT
AMONG CONSERVATIVES -56%
THERESA MAY -35%
THE GOVERNMENT -76%
Base: c. 1,000 British adults, circa 300 Conservative party supporters 18+ each month

32%
16%
10%
9%
29%
3%
AND HOW STRONGLY, IF AT ALL,
WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR
OPPOSE A DELAY OF UP TO XXX
IN BRITAIN’S DEPARTURE FROM
THE EU, IF AN AGREEMENT ON
THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S EXIT
FROM THE EU IS NOT REACHED
BY THE 29TH OF MARCH?
TEND TO SUPPORT
Delaying Britain’s
departure from
the EU
STRONGLY SUPPORT
NEITHER SUPPORT NOR
OPPOSE
TEND TO OPPOSE
STRONGLY OPPOSE
DON’T KNOW
THREE
MONTHS
24%
10%
5%
8%
50%
3%
TWO
YEARS
48%
SUPPORT
38%
OPPOSE
34%
SUPPORT
58%
OPPOSE

*
2%
6%
10%
23%
23%
28%
32%
35%
48%
.
AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER
EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL
TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON
THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S
FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES,
WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE
FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU
THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO
BLAME?
%
+13
+4 +1 p
+5 +1 p
-7 -3 q
+4
+9
-
-1
-3
-1
CHANGE SINCE DEC ‘18:
Position
EUROPEAN UNION
CONSERVATIVE MPS
THE UK GOVERNMENT
BREXIT CAMPAIGNERS
THE LABOUR PARTY
REMAIN CAMPAIGNERS
OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES
OTHER
NO-ONE
DON’T KNOW
Attributing blame
in the case of a
no deal Brexit

October 2018
Ipsos MORI
March 2019 Political Monitor
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com
For more information

Ipsos MORI March 2019 Political Monitor

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