Ipsos MORI June Political Monitor

1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1
June 2019
POLITICAL MONITOR

June 2019
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: June 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 21– 25 June 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 787 Margin of error
is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in
10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially
important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2
26%
24%
22%
12%
8%
1%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEMS
BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
UKIP
30%
25%
21%
11%
7%
1%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
UKIP

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Mar17
May17
Jul17
Sep17
Nov17
Jan18
Mar18
May18
Jul18
Sep18
Nov18
Jan19
Mar19
May19
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 26%
LABOUR 24%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
June ‘19
May resigns as PM
(May 19)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
Jul17
Oct17
Jan18
Apr18
Jul18
Oct18
Jan19
Apr19
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – June ‘19
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 26%
LABOUR 24%
UKIP 1%
GREEN 8%
LIB DEM 22%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
June ‘19
THE BREXIT PARTY 12%

June 2019
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY
LEADERS

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: June 2019
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
75%
8%
17%
40%
27%
33%
DISSATISFIED
DON’T KNOW
SATISFIED
-0.5% SWING
FROM MAY 2019
-2.5% SWING
FROM MAY 2019
-1% SWING
FROM MAY 2019
-1.5% SWING
FROM MAY 2019
NET=-58 NET=-7 NET=-77NET=-44
69%
7%
25%
8%
7%
85
%
Nigel Farage
54%
11%
35%
NET=-19

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE
LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY/THE BREXIT PARTY?.
Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – June 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
May19
2016 EU Ref
% satisfied
MAY 25%
CORBYN 17%
CABLE 33%
GENERAL
ELECTION
June ‘19
FARAGE 35%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY
CAMERON
BROWN
MAJOR
BLAIR
THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
NETSATISFACTION
May
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)
Corbyn
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER
NETSATISFACTION
CORBYN
BLAIR
SMITH
KINNOCK
MILLIBAND
FOOT
CAMERON
DUNCAN-SMITH
HAGUE
HOWARD

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)
Theresa May’s Government
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT
NETSATISFACTION
MAY’S GOV
BLAIR’S GOV
MAJOR’S GOV
CAMERON’S GOV
THATCHER’S GOV
BROWN’S GOV

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
June 2019 August 2016 – June 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
69% Dissatisfied
7% Don’t know
25% Satisfied
NET = -44
Satisfaction
DISSATISFIED 69%
SATISFIED 25%
%
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Base: 252 Conservative supporters 18+ 21-25 June 2019
June 2019 August 2016 – June 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
46% Dissatisfied
5% Don’t know
50% Satisfied
NET = -4
DISSATISFIED 50%
SATISFIED 46%
Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
%

Jeremy Corbyn
June 2019 September 2015 – June 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
.
SATISFIED 17%
DISSATISFIED 75%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -58
Satisfaction
75% Dissatisfied
8% Don’t know
17% Satisfied
%

Jeremy Corbyn
Base: 184 Labour supporters 18+ 21-25 June 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -2
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
46% Dissatisfied
10% Don’t know
44% Satisfied
SATISFIED 44%
DISSATISFIED 46%
%

Vince Cable
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
DISSATISFIED 40%
SATISFIED 33%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
NET = -7
33% Dissatisfied
27% Don’t know
40% Satisfied
Satisfaction
%

June 2019
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
June 2019
EOI = -44
57%
23%
13%
7%
GET WORSE
STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same Get worse
Improve
%
January 2007 – June 2019
May ‘19

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Oct1998
Jul1999
Apr2000
Jan2001
Oct2001
Jul2002
Apr2003
Jan2004
Oct2004
Jul2005
Apr2006
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Apr2015
Jan2016
Oct2016
Jul2017
Apr2018
Jan2019
NET OPTIMISM=-44
Jun2019
June ‘19

June 2019
CONSERVATIVE
LEADERSHIP
CONTEST

21Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME
THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND
UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN
SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS.
WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU
THINK APPLY TO …?
Leader image 64%
27%
33%
27%
40%
28%
54%
25%
79%
28%
62%
50%
32%
37%
36%
39%
25%
29%
31%
18%
41%
53%
Patriotic
Good in a crisis
Capable leader
Has sound judgement
Understands problems facing Britain
Gives confidence for Britain’s future
More style than substance
More honest than most politicians
Has got a lot of personality
Good representative for GB on world stage
JEREMY HUNT
Out of touch with ordinary people
Johnson v Hunt
BORIS JOHNSON
Boris Johnson +14
Jeremy Hunt +5
Jeremy Hunt +4
Boris Johnson +9
Boris Johnson +1
Boris Johnson +3
Boris Johnson +25
Jeremy Hunt +6
Boris Johnson +61
Jeremy Hunt +13
Boris Johnson +9

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
31%
34%
42%
53%
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
AGREE DISAGREE
AGREE
NET
-19
SINCE
SWING
MAY ‘19
+10
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 252 Conservative party supporters, 21-25 June 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”
Among all
53%
59%
24%
28%
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
Among Conservative party supporters
-11
+31
+29
+11
+24
+20.5

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
BORIS JOHNSON -19%
-22% -20%
-49%
-55%
-41% -39% -40%-39%
-19%
10%
5%
-45%
-36%
-26%
-12%
-26%
-17%
31%
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
NET AGREE
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
May-19
Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Conservative Party supporters each month
AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC
Boris Johnson
BORIS JOHNSON +31%
AMONG CONSERVATIVE
SUPPORTERS
Jun-19

WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S … OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?
Most capable Prime Minister
51%
52%
33%
29%
Jeremy Hunt Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn
AMONG ALL
35%
40%
49%
40%
Jeremy Hunt Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn
AMONG NON-CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 667 Non-Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”

IF JEREMY HUNT/BORIS JOHNSON WAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY, HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO
CONSIDER VOTING CONSERVATIVE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION? WOULD YOU BE…?
Likelihood to vote Conservative in the future
14%
32%
84%
62%
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
Among all
Among Non-Conservative party supporters
21%
36%
77%
59%
Among all
Among Non-Conservative party supporters
LIKELY UNLIKELY
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 667 Non-Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”

June 2019
BREXIT

FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF THEY
WERE PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT,
IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT THEY
WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN
IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER
EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?
Confidence in getting a
good Brexit deal for
Britain
37%
33%
41%
52%
64%
53%
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT
JUNE 2019
JUNE 2019
SEP 2018
Base: 1,043 British adults 18 21-25 June 2019”

FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF THEY
WERE PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT,
IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT THEY
WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN
IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER
EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?
Confidence in getting a
good Brexit deal for
Britain
60%
47%
62%
31%
48%
33%
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT
JUNE 2019
JUNE 2019
SEP 2018
Among Conservative
party supporters
Base: 252 Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”

Source: Ipsos MORI
Conservative
party leadership
candidates and
their position on
Brexit
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS
COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR
VIEWS OF EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING AND THEIR
APPROACH TO BRITAIN
LEAVING THE EUROPEAN
UNION (BREXIT)?
49%
61%
64%
63%
26%
37%
38%
39%
32%
20%
27%
28%
53%
42%
53%
52%
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
LIKE DO NOT LIKE
Boris Johnson
Johnson’s approach to Brexit
Jeremy Hunt
Hunt’s approach to Brexit
AMONG CONSERVATIVE
PARTY SUPPORTERS
AMONG ALL
Jeremy Hunt
Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson
Johnson’s approach to Brexit
Jeremy Hunt
Hunt’s approach to Brexit
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 252 Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”

28% I like him and I like his approach to Brexit
11% I like him but I do not like his approach to Brexit
10% I do not like him but I like his approach to Brexit
42% I do not like him and I do not like his approach to Brexit
8% Don’t know
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH
TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?
Boris Johnson and his position on Brexit
v
Boris Johnson and his Brexit position
Total like him 39%
Total do not like him 52%
Total like his approach to
Brexit 38%
Total do not like his approach
to Brexit 53%
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019”

19% I like him and I like his approach to Brexit
18% I like him but I do not like his approach to Brexit
7% I do not like him but I like his approach to Brexit
35% I do not like him and I do not like his approach to Brexit
21% Don’t know
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH
TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?
Jeremy Hunt and his position on Brexit
v
Jeremy Hunt and his Brexit position
Total like him 37%
Total do not like him 42%
Total like his approach to
Brexit 26%
Total do not like his approach
to Brexit 53%
Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019”

October 2018
Ipsos MORI
June 2019 Political Monitor
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Keiran Pedley
Research Director
keiran.pedley@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com
For more information

Ipsos MORI June Political Monitor

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