The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows only a small improvement on the steep decrease in the House Price Outlook (HPO) found in autumn 2017. In October 2017 HPO - consumer sentiment on whether average house prices will be higher or lower in a year’s time - was +30, down from +44 in March 2016 and less than half its peak in May 2015. HPO is now +33. Half expect house prices to rise over the next year, the same as autumn 2017 and remaining at the lowest level since April 2013 (45%). However, fewer people are now negative about the housing market, with 17% predicting a fall in prices over the next year, down from 20% six months ago, with 26% expecting prices to stay flat.

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SlideShare summary
Q1 2018

2. 2
7%
1%
2%
5%
9%
26%
24%
18%
6%
2%
Don't know Lower by 15% or
more
Lower by 10% -
15%
Lower by 5% -
10%
Lower but less
than 5% lower
The same Higher but less
than 5% higher
Higher by 5% -
10%
Higher by 10% -
15%
Higher 15% or
more
.
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
[respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI]
* UK house price benchmark given = £224,353
Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
House Price Outlook (HPO)

3. 3
House Price Outlook trend
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
Previous Autumn measures
+56
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO]
+44
+19
+64
+58
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
+9
+33
+65
+33
Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

4. 4
HPO and EOI trends
HPO EOI
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next
12 months?
+33
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+)
EOI measures in advance of HPO measure
-32
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
EOI - Ipsos MORI (2-7 March 2018)
Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

5. 5
‘Higher’ trends
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be
the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same
2
6
26
24
18
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

6. 6
‘Lower’ trends
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be
the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same
26
5
9
1
2
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

7. 7
HPO and selling sentiment
HPO Selling sentiment
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same?
Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to
sell a property?
Selling sentiment –
% agree good time to
sell
HPO – + balance of
% higher minus %
lower
47
+33
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

8. 8
Buying and selling sentiment
(±)
net good time buy
(±)
net good time sell
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
+14
+11
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

9. 9
Buying/selling sentiment combined
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
Good time buy/
bad time sell
Bad time buy/
good time sell
+1 -2 0
Good time buy/
good time sell
Bad time buy/
bad time sell
+ change vs
Oct 2017
12%13%
34%
22%
-4
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

10. 10
Buying sentiment – key groups
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time
or a bad time for people in general to buy a property?
+24
0
+26
x%
+15
27
+17
+ net good time to buy
+13
+15
+18
+23
-2
-14
+18
+15
+21
+24
+20
+7
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Men Women OwnerMortgage Renter
Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

11. 11
Selling sentiment – key groups
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time
or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
x%
+ net good time to sell
+11 +11
+14
+21
-4
+7
+9
+2
+18
+20
+13
Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter
+8
+17
+22
x%
+11
27
+2
-10
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

12. 12
63
42
37
34
17
14
12
9
7
7
2
2
Being able to raise enough deposit
Job security
Rising property prices
Household finances
Concern about rises in interest rates
Fees related to buying a house
The general availability of mortgages
Shortage of property for sale
Shortage of the right type of property people want to buy
The level of stamp duty/taxation
Falling property prices
Don't know
Barriers to buying
Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers
To people in general being able to buy a property? Change +
vs Oct 17
0
0
+2
+2
+2
+2
-3
-3
+1
-2
+2
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
+1
Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

13. 13
Barriers to buying - trend data
Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers
to people in general being able to buy a property?
% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices
% raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage of property for sale % shortage want to buy
% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation
63
42
34
17
7,7
2
12
37
9
14
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

14. 14
Mortgage rates
Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in rates
affecting your mortgage payments?*
6%
30%
33%
31%
1%
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
*Question in 2017: Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in interest rates affecting your ability to afford your
mortgage payments?
12%
30%
24%
28%
7%
20172014
Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know
6%
23%
30%
39%
3%
2018
Base: 527 mortgage holders, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

15. 15
5
6
9
8
10
7
19
28
6
2
6
7
9
11
11
5
16
21
11
3
…£24 or less per month
…between £25 and £49 per month
…between £50 and £74 per month
…between £75 and £99 per month
…between £100 and £124 per month
…between £125 and £149 per month
…£150 or more per month
I would have no difficulties
Don’t know
None of these
2018
2014
Mortgage rates
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
What is the smallest amount your monthly mortgage repayments would have to increase for you to find
it difficult to afford it? I would find it difficult to afford my monthly mortgage payments if they went up
by...
Base: 527 mortgage holders, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018

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Further information:
ben.marshall@ipsos.com
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