Slides presented by Simon Atkinson at Criminal Justice Alliance rountable on campaigning during the run-up to 2015 General Election

1. Crime
and the British
Prepared for Criminal Justice
Alliance Roundtable:
Campaigning in the
run-up to 2015
Simon Atkinson
Assistant Chief Executive
22 November 2013
@SimonMAtkinson

2. 2
Theme One:
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Perceptions vs “Facts”

3. 3

4. 4

5. 5
Theme Two:
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

6. 6
The “local” picture often differs from…

7. 7
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public

8. 8
6%
Britain is getting
better as a place to live

9. 9
61%
Britain is getting
worse as a place to live

10. 10
24%
Britain is getting better as
a place to live
July 1998

11. 11
“Thinking about
your local area,
which 4 or 5
things most need
improving?”
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

12. Crime is #6...
12
Q
Thinking about your local area, which 4 or 5 of the things on the card, if any, do you think most need
improving?
Top mentions
Next mentions
%
%
Activities for teenagers
Sports and leisure facilities
Job prospects
The level of traffic congestion
Condition roads/pavements
Health services
Cleanliness of streets
Social care - adults and
older people
Affordability of housing
Level of crime/ASB
Local high street/facilities
Facilities for young
children
Parks and open spaces
Public transport
Wage levels/ local cost of
living
Base: 986 British adults 15+, 15-21 June 2012
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Schools
Social care - children and
families
Cultural facilities(eg libraries,
museums)
The quality of the local environment
Adult education/training
Race/community relations
Source: Ipsos MORI Local Improvement Index

13. 13
“What would you
say are the most
important issues
facing Britain
today?”
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

14. Issues Facing Britain: October
14
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Change since Sept:
Position
%
Top mentions %
44
Economy
36
Race relations/Immigration
32
Unemployment
25
NHS
Inflation/Prices
19
Education/Schools
18
Poverty/Inequality
15
Crime/Law and order
Pensions/benefits
Housing
Base: 975 British adults 18+, 11th - 21st October 2013
14
11
10
-1
+4
+1
-1
-1
+2
+8
+4
+5
+1
+2
+1
-2
-2
+2
0
+2
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

15. Issues Facing Britain:
Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
60
Foreign prisoners scandal –
Charles Clarke is sacked
50
Blair activates civil contingencies
machinery to deal with spiralling street
crime
15
Cameron becomes
PM
Rhys Jones and
Garry Newlove
murdered
Tory election pledge of
40,000 more police
40
Riots
May day riots
30
Prison
overcrowding
reaches record
levels
20
Fuel
Protests
10
9/11
0
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

16. 16
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
Now recording the lowest level of
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
concern about crime since 1992
Ipsos MORI Issues Index:

17. 17
It’s worth taking a
moment to think about
how we felt during the
(pre-internet…) 1990s…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

18. 18

19. 19

20. 20

21. 21

22. 22
55%

23. 23

24. The “norm” back in 1993: Most Brits thought they would be a
victim of burglary or car crime over the next 12 months…
54%
60%
24

25. 25
Fast-forward to 2010…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

26. Post-2010 Reforms:
Policing, education and NHS have been major focus.
But they haven’t been the top priorities for the public,
as measured by the monthly Ipsos MORI Issues Index
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
26

27. Issues Facing Britain:
Education / Schools
27
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Cameron becomes
PM
50
Introduction of
means-tested tuition
fees. Education most
important issue.
Labour’s second term - pledge to
improve failing secondary schools
40
City academies introduced to
combat entrenched failure in Education and Inspections Bill
limits the power of LAs to
some urban schools
open new schools
30
April 2011 – Pupil Premium
introduced
Fuel
Protests
20
London
Bombs
10
Lowest score
since Dec 1985
0
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

28. Issues Facing Britain:
NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare
28
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
80
Cameron becomes
PM
Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS
for years and we are paying the price for
it” – BBC NHS day
70
General
Election –
“Battle of
Margaret’s
shoulder”
60
50
Hewitt heckled at UNISON
conference – fears over NHS
job cuts
40
30
20
Blair tells doctors “not enough”
has been done for the NHS –
allocates extra £20 billion. Report
says waiting lists have doubled
under Labour
Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more
nurses, 40 new hospitals and
development of foundation trusts as part
of NHS plan
10
Lowest score
since
December 1985
0
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

29. Issues Facing Britain:
Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants
29
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Cameron becomes
PM
50
Sangatte detention
centre constantly in the
news throughout 2002
600,000 EU migrants
settled since 2004
Foreign
prisoners
furore
“Go home or face arrest”
adverts used in some
London Boroughs
40
9/11
30
Race riots in
Burnley, Oldham,
and Bradford
20
Anthony Walker
murdered in
Liverpool
10
0
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

30. Issues Facing Britain:
Economy / Economic situation
30
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Cameron becomes
PM
70
Bank
bailout
60
Highest score since 1992.
Most important issue for the
first time
50
40
Global Recession and
Russian Financial
crisis
30
End of
recession
announced
Lowest score since
Lehman Brothers’
collapse (43%)
Northern Rock
nationalised
20
10
Sub-prime
mortgage crisis in
the US
0
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

31. Issues Facing Britain:
Unemployment / Factory closure / Lack of industry
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Cameron becomes
PM
50
Youth unemployment
reaches 1 million
40
Minimum wage
introduced
30
20
10
0
Unemployment in
Britain rises to
5.5%
‘New Deal’
launched, providing
training, subsidised
employment, and
voluntary work
to the unemployed
Lowest ever score
Unemployment falls
below 1 million for first
time in 25 years
May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
31

32. 32
Britain 2013:
Yes!
Crime is falling
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

33. 33

34. and not just in Britain:
…
Source: The Economist, 20 July 2013
34

35. 35
Yes, but
Hmm…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

36. Is it making us feel that much better?
Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over
the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false:
2013
Violent crime is rising
51
2005
83
2013
Crime is falling
2005
Police numbers are 2013
the highest ever
2005
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
28
20
13
43
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

37. The local and the national again...
Thinking about ..., how much of a problem do you think each of the following are….?
% A very or fairly big
problem
Crime
Immigration
Teenagers hanging around the
streets
Rubbish or litter lying around
Unemployment
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Local area
Gap
UK as a whole
48
83
76
50
46
+35
+26
70
71
48
71
+24
+23
92 +21
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

38. And we DO worry: The Brits are the biggest worriers
when it comes to crime
38
Q. Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in your
country? Crime and violence
UK
53%
Sweden
51%
Netherlands
46%
Italy
40%
36%
Canada
US
35%
Australia
34%
France
Germany
Spain
33%
24%
23%
South Korea
22%
Poland
22%
Source: Ipsos MORI Global @dvisor
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Base: 22,224 online consumer citizens, 14 April-7 May 2009

39. 39
Yes, but
and anyway…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

40. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

41. 41
There are
new types of
crime for us all
to be worrying
• Of Twitter users
about… a are likely
to recommend brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

42. …meanwhile, back in my local area…
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

43. 43
When I type “local policing”
into my search engine…

44. …I get LOTS of information
about all the crimes STILL
happening in my area….
44

45. Similar experience when I’m out and about…
Does this make me feel more safe or less safe?
45

46. 46

47. 47

48. 48
Fast-forward to 2015…
Public opinion and crime at
the next General Election?
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

49. 49
2015: Conservatives are a bit
ahead as “best party on crime”?
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

50. On crime, the Conservatives have a clear (but
not dramatic) lead at the moment…
Conservative party
Labour party
Liberal Democrat party
UKIP
22%
19%
Asylum/ immigration
6%
11%
31%
19%
Crime & anti-social behaviour
6%
3%
Europe
22%
21%
9%
18%
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
50

51. Labour lead on other issues…
Conservative party
Labour party
51
Liberal Democrat party
UKIP
25%
31%
Education
8%
1%
21%
36%
Healthcare
6%
1%
26%
30%
Unemployment
5%
2%
18%
32%
Housing
6%
1%
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

52. 52
2015: (Most) police can be
trusted?
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

53. Veracity Index – unlikely to change in next 2 years?
53
I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me if you would generally trust
them to tell the truth or not.
% Not trust
Doctors
Teachers
Scientists
Judges
Television news readers
Clergymen/priests
Police
The ordinary man/woman in the street
Civil Servants
Pollsters
Trade union officials
Business leaders
Estate agents
MPs in general
Journalists
Bankers
Politicians generally
Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
9
11
11111
13
24
27
28
26
38
34
47
57
70
70
72
75
77
% Trust
89
86
83
82
69
66
65
64
53
50
41
34
24
23
21
21
18
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

54. 54
2015: Probably not a great plan
to say “we are making cuts to
policing”
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

55. “Don’t cut the Police” is the public’s starting point
55
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from?
Government spends most
money
50
The NHS/Healthcare
45
Benefit payments
28
Defence and armed forces
22
Overseas aid
Government should cut
55
Overseas aid
44
Benefit payments
28
Defence and armed forces
Local authority services
10
Social services
14
Social services
8
State pensions
12
The NHS/Healthcare
5
Schools
11
Police
4
State pensions
Care for the elderly
3
2
1
9
Police 5
Care for the elderly 3
Local authority services
Schools
Other
5
Other
9
Don’t know
6
Don’t know
7
Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

56. Don’t cut the Police. Or Health. Or Schools. Or Pensions…
56
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from?
Government spends most
money
50
The NHS/Healthcare
45
Benefit payments
28
Defence and armed forces
22
Overseas aid
Government should cut
55
Overseas aid
44
Benefit payments
28
Defence and armed forces
Local authority services
10
Social services
14
Social services
8
State pensions
12
The NHS/Healthcare
5
Schools
11
Police
4
State pensions
Care for the elderly
3
2
1
9
Police 5
Care for the elderly 3
Local authority services
Schools
Other
5
Other
9
Don’t know
6
Don’t know
7
Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

57. 57
2015: Generally things are
staying “about the same”
in my area…?
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

58. Staying the same (in the main....)
58
On balance, based on your personal experience, do you think the following public
services have got better or worse over the past 12 months or have they stayed the
same?
0
10
Primary
education
Refuse
collection
6
4
Secondary
education 1
40
50
80
13
The police
3
9
Much better
20
22
41
Stayed the same
Base: Online British adults aged 16-75 who are users of each service (n in brackets), 9-11 November 2012
18
A little worse
7
5
Much worse
2
8
11
19
52
A little better
3
16
47
10
100
14
59
3
90
17
56
9
Version 1 | Public
70
64
13
Public
transport
© Ipsos MORI
60
49
12
5
NHS
Hospitals
30
18
3
NHS GP
20
2
5
6
6
9
19
4
10
Don't know/can't say
Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA

59. 59
2015: The police are
tolerably well run (we
think)?
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

60. 66% in 1987, 62% in 2009, ? In 2015?
60
“Do you think the police is well run or not well run”
% Well run
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pre war (before 1945)
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Baby boomers (1945-65)
Generation x (1966-1979)
Generation y (1980-2000)
Trend

61. 61
2015: You can change the
way things are organised
if you like…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

62. 62
2015: You can change the
way things are organised
if you like, but don’t
expect us to notice
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

63. 63
CASE STUDY:
The police and crime
commissioner elections…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

64. 64
3% know “a great
deal” about them”
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
5-16 October 2012 more than
they follow, and
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

65. 65
8% know the name of
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
Autumn 2013
mobile phone.
their PCC

66. 66
You can change the way
things are organised if
you like, but DON’T mess
things up
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

67. Four Things We Think We Know About Public Services
67
1. People value the security provided by public services
2. Fairness is key – often equated with universal provision
3. People want to protect what they have
1. Divided over need for cuts to tackle deficit
2. Even though all agree huge efficiency savings are possible
4. Private sector involvement is a low salience issue
+
-
© Ipsos MORI
Efficient, dealing with failure, experience
Profits, accountability, losing what we cherish
Version 1 | Public

68. 68
General Election 2015
In summary…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

69. 69
2015: Crime & policing will
be an issue, but probably
not THE issue?
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

70. The position in 2010. How different will 2015 be?
70
Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do
you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote
for?
All at 3% or above
Managing the economy
32%
Healthcare
Education
Asylum/immigration
Taxation
Unemployment
Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour
Benefits
Care for older & disabled people
Pensions
Afghanistan
Protecting natural env./climate change
Housing
Iraq
Public transport/roads
Defence
26%
23%
14%
12%
11%
8%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public

71. 71
HOWEVER…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.

72. Can Britain have a more
“sophisticated” debate
on all this?
Public keen on prisons,
but also ready to discuss
“rehabilitation”…
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
72

73. The public prioritise maintaining police numbers over other
potential cost-saving measures
73
Q: If the Criminal Justice System was to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept?
% Least
% Most
Fewer education programmes in
prisons
More fines (eg speeding tickets,
parking fines)
Fewer rehabilitation programmes for
drugs & alcohol users
Fewer prison sentences and more
community sentences
4
15
16
45
Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
Version 1 | Public
13
7 2
None of these
© Ipsos MORI
18
6 13
Less monitoring of people on
probation
Fewer police
38
1
6

74. Most people do not feel prison/probation services reduce reoffending
74
Q
How effective do you think the xxx service is at reducing re-offending…?
% Not at all
effective
Prison Service
Probation
Service
© Ipsos MORI
% Not very
effective
52%
48%
14
12
% Quite
effective
% Don’t
know
38
24
1 25%
23
36
23
2 25%
27
Base: 906 adults in England and Wales, January 2009
Version 1 | Public
% Very
effective

75. But we should still build more prisons!
75
Q. As you may know, Britain has a bigger proportion of its population in prison
than many other countries, and Britain’s prisons are nearly full. For each of
the following ways of dealing with this, do you think they should or should not
be used?
Should not
Send fewer people to prison
57%
36%
Make prison sentences 79%
shorter
Build more prisons
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Net
Should
-21
-66
13%
24%
74%
+50
Source: Ipsos MORI/Sun, 2006
Base: 1,001 British public aged 18+, 12-17 January 2006

76. Even though – widespread belief that prison does not reduce reoffending…
Q Which two or three of these do you think would do most to
reduce crime in Britain?
57%
59%
55%
Better parenting
49%
46%
45%
49%
46%
49%
55%
53%
41%
41%
41%
40%
Better discipline in schools
More police on the beat
More constructive activities for
young people
21%
23%
27%
21%
19%
19%
19%
29%
Capital punishment for
murder
More effective programmes to
change behaviour
More offenders in prison
Introducing a national identity
card
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
67%
11%
11%
10%
8%
10%
24%
23%
20%
Base: Representative samples of British residents (c.1,000 - 2,000).
2009
2004
2003
2001
76

77. The public are generally positive about “rehabilitation”, but there is
some social desirability in how people answer?
77
% Strongly disagree
% Tend to disagree
% Tend to agree
% Strongly agree
Don’t know/
neutral
Rehabilitation is the best way of
preventing offenders from
committing further crimes
Rehabilitation is
generally a waste of
time and effort
5 14
15
Rehabilitation does not work for
all offenders but is the most
effective solution for offenders
who want to stop offending
33
43
23
26
18
20%
9
53
20%
22
Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010.
Split sample for top two statements.
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI
16%

78. When we ask the public and serving offenders what will make the most
difference, ‘help in finding work’ is top priority for both
78
Q What types of approaches and activities do you think are currently
used in the rehabilitation of people who have committed crimes?
Those mentioned by 10%+
26
Education courses
23
23
Drug programmes/help with drugs
Help finding employment
18
18
Help with alcohol problems
Teaching of new skills/trades
13
13 This is what both the
Help understand impact of actions
Help with accommodation
Help bring back to society
Mediation/help to say sorry
Anger management
Support to address issues (non specific)
Don’t know/can’t say
11 public and current offenders
actually think will
10
make most difference
10
10
27
Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI

79. Thank you
Simon Atkinson
Assistant Chief Executive
22 November 2013
@SimonMAtkinson