Gideon Skinner's presentation at our fringe event at the 2011 Liberal Democrat Conference co-hosted by Reuters

1. Liberal Democrat Conference 2011
Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI

2. How
deep
is the
hole?

3. Support for the Lib Dems has fallen away
since the election
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005 2010
General Clegg becomes General
Election Campbell leader (Dec 07) Election
becomes leader
50 (March 06)
40
37%
35%
30
20
13%
10
0
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Sep-03
Nov-03
Sep-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Nov-05
Sep-06
Nov-06
Sep-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
Sep-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

4. And is lower than usual in “peace time”
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005 2010
General Clegg becomes General
Election Campbell leader (Dec 07) Election
becomes leader
50 (March 06)
40
37%
35%
30
20
13%
10
0
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Sep-03
Nov-03
Sep-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Nov-05
Sep-06
Nov-06
Sep-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
Sep-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LD
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Voted Tory Voted Lab Voted LD
in 2010 in 2010 in 2010
Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote
Still Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote
Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any more
18% 14%
30%
24% 58%
21%
61% 62%
12%
Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

6. While Nick Clegg has seen the best of times
and the worst of times….
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is
doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy
Prime Minister? (Net ratings = satisfied minus dissatisfied)
Best ever* Lib/LD
(Ashdown, May 1997)
+58%
Clegg best
+53%
(April 2010)
*Since first comparable MORI measure (1977)
Base: c. 1,000-2,000 British adults 18+ in each survey Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. While Nick Clegg has seen the best of times
and the worst of times….
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is
doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy
Prime Minister? (Net ratings = satisfied minus dissatisfied)
Best ever* Lib/LD
(Ashdown, May 1997)
+58%
Clegg best
+53%
(April 2010)
Clegg now
-28%
(Sept 2011)
Clegg worst
-32%
(May 2011)
Worst ever* Lib/LD -28%
(Steel, Jan 1988)
*Since first comparable MORI measure (1977)
Base: c. 1,000-2,000 British adults 18+ in each survey Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8. Who are you
appealing to – and
who have you lost?

9. Who are you appealing to – and who have
you lost?
Some people describe their political views as being left wing or right wing.
How would you describe your own views, would you say they are…?
% Left wing % Left of % Centre % Right of centre % Right wing
centre
Your own views 9 15 33 16 8
Con voters 32 34 33 14
Lab voters 19 28 25 8 7
LD voters 10 29 37 10 5
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 15th - 17th October 2010 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
“Don’t knows” not shown

10. Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LD
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Voted Tory Voted Lab Voted LD
in 2010 in 2010 in 2010
Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote
Still Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote
Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any more
18% 14%
30%
24% 58%
21%
61% 62%
12%
Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LD
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Voted Tory Voted Lab Voted LD
in 2010 in 2010 in 2010
Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote
Still Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote
Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any more
A quarter of Lib Dems
18% 14%
18%
have swung to Labour 7%
30%
24%
21%
61% 62%
12%
33%
Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. Can you guess which past PM is most admired?
Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the most
capable leader?
% All adults % LD “defectors” % LD “stickers”
27%
Blair
11%
Brown
10%
Cameron
36%
Thatcher
7%
Major
9%
None/DK
Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76
saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Can you guess which past PM is most admired?
Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the most
capable leader?
% All adults % LD “defectors” % LD “stickers”
27%
Blair 52%
11%
Brown 13%
10%
Cameron 4%
36%
Thatcher 24%
7%
Major 3%
9%
None/DK 4%
Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76
saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14. Can you guess which past PM is most admired?
Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the most
capable leader?
% All adults % LD “defectors” % LD “stickers”
27%
Blair 52%
13%
11%
Brown 13%
3%
10%
Cameron 4%
17%
36%
Thatcher 24%
51%
7%
Major 3%
11%
9%
None/DK 4%
5%
Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76
saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15. Difficult time to be in
government

16. The economy is the number one issue
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain
today?
70
Economy
60
50
40
Unemployment
30
20
10
0
May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age
18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

17. Widespread concern about the effects of cuts
And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on
you and your family in the next 12 months?
Not at all concerned Don’t know
6%1% Very concerned
20% 35%
Not very
concerned
38%
Fairly concerned
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18. But that’s not the whole
story - the Coalition effect

19. No one party having an overall majority is seen as
a bad thing for the country
Do you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party
achieved an overall majority?
May 2010 April 2011
Don’t know Good thing Don’t know
Good thing
8%
8%
40% 34%
52%
58%
Bad thing
Bad thing
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20. Conservatives seen to be making most of the
decisions in the Coalition
From what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view?
The Conservatives are making most of the decisions in the new government
The new government is a genuine coalition in which decisions are made jointly
between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats
Don’t know
Neither June 2010 April 2011
6% 8%
2% 4%
25%
41%
51%
63%
Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor
Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18th-20th June 2010, 1,005 British adults
12th-14th Nov 2010; 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011

21. Conservatives seen as truer to their pre-election
plans than Lib Dems
Before the general election, both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats said
they would address the national deficit. Which party do you think has been truer to
their plans?
Conservatives
Neither/Don’t Know 36%
44%
13%
8%
Both equally
Liberal Democrats
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

22. Lib Dem voters prioritise principles – even in a Coalition
Which, in any, of the following statements comes closest to your opinion on how
parties should work together in coalition?
The parties should stand up for The parties should work together to
the policies they believe in, even reach agreement, even if this means
if this makes it more difficult to giving up on policies they promised
make decisions and taking on new policies
All 49% 47%
Voted Con 36% 61%
Voted Lab 61% 37%
Voted LD 60% 34%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 20-24 May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23. So although “winning” was supposed to
help your chances…..
How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a
significant chance of winning the election nationally?
Other
6%
25% Conservatives
Liberal 49%
Democrats
19% Labour
Lib Dem lead = +24
Base: 1,509 British adults 18+, 18th - 19th April 2010 Source: YouGov

24. Instead you’re seen as divided, and losing
out on your principles…..
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have
been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think
apply to the… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party
Keeps its promises
Will promise anything to win
votes
Divided
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

25. …but not made up for it on credibility to govern
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have
been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think
apply to the… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems
facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win
votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of
people like me
Fit to govern
Out of date
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

26. So what
does this
all mean?

27. Final thoughts
Being in government hasn’t helped your public image
– All hard choices but no hard benefit
You’ve lost the ‘soft left’ and the protest vote – but there’s still a big
centre ground out there
– Is about winning them back, or building a new centre identity?
So, how do you differentiate yourselves without destroying the
Coalition?
– Tories might survive a snap election, but the Lib Dems would
not

28. Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000