What lies ahead for the new Labour leader, presented at "Beyond the Bubble" event at Labour Party Conference 2015.

1. Ipsos MORI at Labour 2015
Beyond the bubble
What lies ahead for the new
Labour leader?

2. Labour 2015
HOPE AND EXPERIENCE
@GideonSkinner
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com

3. © Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
In GE2015, Labour
only had a clear
lead over the
Conservatives
among:
18-34s
Social class DE
Private and social renters
BME voters
Meanwhile Labour
actually lost
ground to the
Conservatives
among:
Over 65s
ABC1s

4. Labour and LibDems lost 2010 voters across the political spectrum:
Conservatives did best at retaining, and had one main threat in UKIP
Base: 943 2010 Conservative voters / 798 2010 Labour voters/488 2010 LibDem voters 10th April -6th May 2015,
weighted to final election result
4ESTIMATED VOTING BEHAVIOUR BY 2010 PAST VOTE
Source: Ipsos MORI General election aggregate analysis
13%
82%
2%2%
*%
*%
5%
2010 Conservative voters 2010 Labour voters
2015 VOTING
BEHAVIOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
LIB DEM
SNP
GREEN
OTHER
8%
6%
72%
5%
5%
5%
1%
2010 LibDem voters
20%
7%
35%
24%
2%
11%
1%

5. 5

6. 36%
23%
6%
3%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan00
Apr00
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Jan01
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Jul11
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Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
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Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Labour’s lead on the NHS wasn’t enough….
6
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR,
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM

7. 39%
53%
7%
Will this government’s policies will improve Britain's ECONOMY in the long-term?

8. Which means Labour has some big challenges ahead….
Austerity has been taken on board by the public – any big policy idea
is faced with two immediate questions:
1) How much is this going to cost?
2) Where is the money going to come
from?
So while the Conservatives may not be loved (and will face problems
of their own – Europe?) the onus is on Labour to regain voters’ trust
“I’ve got a mortgage and two young kids
and I feel secure right now…if Labour
come in would they rock the boat?”

9. HOPE?

10. None of the other candidates were a sliver bullet
10
26%
22%
37%
43%
41%
44%
38%
39%
19%
34%
25%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jeremy Corbyn
Liz Kendall
Yvette Cooper
Andy Burnham
Agree Neither/ dk Disagree
Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER

11. The old style of politics is losing younger generations
All data points represent > 200 responses
11DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?
Source: British Social Attitudes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war
Baby
boomers
Gen X
Gen Y

12. © Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
251,417 50,000+

13. 13
At first glance Jeremy Corbyn’s debut on the Ipsos MORI
satisfaction ratings does not bode well
13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/ LEADER OF
XX PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
21
13
22
12
16
13
15
17
17
20
22
36
23
33
37
30
34
12
15
26
31
36
41
33
Foot - Nov. '80
Kinnock - Oct '83
Major - Dec '90
Smith - July '92
Blair - Aug '94
Hague - Jun '97
Duncan Smith - Sep '01
Howard - Nov '03
Cameron - Jan '06
Brown - July '07
Miliband - Oct '10
Corbyn - Sep '15
% Dissatisfied % Satisfied
Net +%
+2
+20
+15
+18
+18
-1
0
+9
+16
+14
+19
-3
c. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month

14. 14
But satisfaction with the new leader is much higher among
the young
14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th –22ND September 2015
*
Net satisfied +%
14
19
4
-4
-11
-28
18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+

15. 15
62%
51%
46%
76%
51%
56%
45%
41%
51%
64%
30%
32%
23%
32%
37%
49%
47%
25%
41%
49%
39%
54%
Capable leader
Good in a crisis
Sound judgement
Patriotic
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a clear vision for Britain
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Understands the problems facing Britain
Out of touch with ordinary people
More honest than most politicians
A different type of politics? Jeremy Corbyn is seen as being
more honest than most politicians and less out of touch…..
15I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN
SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS.
WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY CORBYN?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th– 22nd September 2015.
CORBYN CAMERON

16. 16
43%
14%
36%
63%
24%
28%
40%
43%
52%
39%
75%
36%
55%
60%
26%
27%
35%
43%
51%
62%
61%
Divided
Extreme
Out of date
Will promise anything to win votes
Keeps its promises
Has a good team of leaders
Fit to govern
Looks after the interests of people like me
Understands the problems facing Britain
Different to the other parties
Concerned about people in real need in Britain
And leading a party concerned about those in real need – but also
as more divided and more extreme
16I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN
SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES.
WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
SEPTEMBER 2015 APRIL 2015
Base: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015.

17. The Speech
SOME INSTANT REACTION

18. 18
How did Jeremy do?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Thousands
JEREMY CORBYN ADDRESSES 2015 LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE – TWITTER’S VERDICT
Source: Ipsos MORI live analysis
Ed Miliband – Labour
Party Conference 2014
Autumn Statement
2014
EU Debate 2014
Total Tweet Volume
24
78
76
22
Boo (%) Cheer (%)
Ed Miliband – Labour Party Conference 2014
Jeremy Corbyn – Labour Party Conference
2015
Base: 41,146 Tweets up until 15:25, Boo/Cheer classification based on 18,779 Tweets
41k

19. 19
Twitter likes Twitter best – preaching to the converted?
JEREMY CORBYN’S SPEECH – TWITTER’S FIRST VERDICT
Source: Ipsos MORI live analysis
CHEER BOO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
14:25 14:30 14:35 14:40 14:45 14:50 14:55 15:00 15:05 15:10 15:15 15:20 15:25
Total tweets: 18,779
Refers to 59%
mandate
Opposition to
Trade Union Bill
Labour will oppose
austerity
Opposition to
Trident
“In the future social media will be increasingly
important”
Maya Angelou
quote
Ben Okri quote
Labour committed
to rail
renationalisation
Scotland – “I know you
feel we lost our way. I
agree with you”
Speech end – Keir
Hardie quote
Equality of
esteem for mental
health
Totaltweets
Base: 41,146 Tweets up until 15:25, Boo/Cheer classification based on 18,779 Tweets

20. 20
A group of ex-Labour voters in Croydon liked his
authenticity and difference
20
I liked the way he acknowledged his coverage in the tabloids
about the asteroid. You wouldn’t get Cameron making jokes
about being a pig shagger.
He is one of us. To get to where he is he had to go through a lot. It’s like
a new manager coming into work when they started in the post room -
better that than a graduate trainee.
He’s believable, he’s passionate – it’s the way he was
talking about it. He wants to see change.
These are his values, what he stands for – listening to people,
letting everyone have their own opinion and debating it.

21. 21
But in the end, it wasn’t strong enough to change their minds on
the issues that matter to them, although still early days
21
A social Europe? What is that? Is that the
EU? A lot of this went over my head. If they
want people to vote, then they need to make
it clear what they are talking about.
He mentioned everything….he can’t make a difference
to everything. He should’ve just picked a few issues
What about immigration? This is an issue that’s
happening now – we see it every day in the news – it
matters!

22. 22
Reconnecting with Labour’s roots only half the story – lost
voters wanted their aspirations spoken to too
22DESIRE FOR CHANGE – A RETURN TO LABOUR’S ‘ROOTS’…
BUT SOME ALSO MENTIONED THE NEED TO MIX WTH ASPIRATIONAL MESSAGES
“They need a strong leader, to refocus on
the same sort of pro-business, aspirational
views – but with fairness – that got Blair in”
“That’s what Labour used to be for: a fairer
distribution of money in the country”
“I was brought up working class…and even
stuck by them through the Blair years, but I
could’ve throttled them this time”

23. Thank you
Q&A