An Ipsos MORI poll of just over 1,000 British adults finds expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year.

1. PREDICTIONS

2. Predictions - Political
2
I’D NOW LIKE TO ASK YOU SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK MIGHT HAPPEN IN 2016.
FOR
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO
HAPPEN
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: c.500 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 2015
LIKELY UNLIKELY DON’T KNOW
17%
34%
39%
45%
53%
77%
44%
51%
27%
41%
6%
22%
10%
28%
7%
Jeremy Corbyn will still be leader of the
Labour Party by the end of the year
Zac Goldsmith, the Conservative candidate
will be elected Mayor of London
The EU referendum will be held before the end
of the year
Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate will be
elected Mayor of London
Donald Trump will be elected President of the
United States

3. Predictions – Security and defence
3
I’D NOW LIKE TO ASK YOU SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK MIGHT HAPPEN IN 2016.
FOR
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO
HAPPEN
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: c.500 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 2015
LIKELY UNLIKELY DON’T KNOW
58%
49%
74%
39%
45%
21%
3%
6%
5%
A major terrorist attack will be carried out in
the UK
British ground troops will be sent to Syria
A major terrorist attack will be carried out in
the UK – Dec 2014

4. 16%
17%
19%
35%
39%
80%
73%
51%
44%
48%
4%
10%
30%
21%
12%
Predictions – Sport and society
4
I’D NOW LIKE TO ASK YOU SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK MIGHT HAPPEN IN 2016.
FOR
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO
HAPPEN
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: c.500 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 2015
LIKELY UNLIKELY DON’T KNOW
Britain will win more medals at the Rio de
Janeiro Olympic Games than in the London
2012 Olympics
Prince Harry will get engaged
The pop group One Direction will re-form
before the end of the year
England will get to the final of the football
European Championships
We will find life on Mars

5. 22%
30%
36%
52%
60%
47%
70%
58%
40%
34%
37%
33%
39%
24%
20%
18%
27%
7%
4%
13%
5%
13%
2%
5%
4%
Predictions - Economic
5
IN 2016, DO YOU THINK THAT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING WILL RISE, FALL, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME
LEVEL? EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY YOU THINK THEY ARE TO
HAPPEN
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: c500 British adults 18+, 12th-14th December 2015
The number of immigrants coming in to the
country
The number of immigrants coming in to the
country- December 2014
Mortgage interest rates
The rate of inflation
Your own standard of living
RISE FALL STAY THE SAME DON’T KNOW
The number of people unemployed in this
country
The value of the pound against the euro

6. Unemployment and standard of living - trends
6
IN [THE NEXT YEAR], DO YOU THINK THAT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING WILL RISE, FALL, OR
STAY ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL?
18 19 21 22
51
63 61
58
31
17 17
20
2 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
56
44
30
36
27 27
35 34
15
29
33
27
1 1 2 20
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
The number of unemployed people in this
country Your own standard of living
RISE FALL STAY THE SAME DON’T KNOW
Base: Circa 500 British adults interviewed each year

7. Inflation and interest rates - trends
7
IN [THE NEXT YEAR], DO YOU THINK THAT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING WILL RISE, FALL, OR
STAY ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL?
38
52
57
60
4 4 6 4
51
39
31 33
6 5 6 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
56
52 52 52
36 36 36 37
5
10 8 7
3 3 4 5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
The rate of inflation Mortgage interest rates
RISE FALL STAY THE SAME DON’T KNOW
Base: Circa 500 British adults interviewed each year

8. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR