Terry Thiele presented on how strategic intelligence can help elevate new business development success. He discussed key definitions of new business development, why it is critical for companies, challenges that companies face with NBD, and a methodology for finding NBD opportunities. The methodology involves mapping value chains, identifying critical uncertainties, building scenarios around uncertainties, and assessing who values what in each scenario to point toward future profitable opportunities. Strategic intelligence methods like scenario planning can help companies recognize, adapt to, and potentially influence future events.

1. How Strategic Intelligence
Elevates New Business
Development Success
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// 21 August 2013
~ featuring ~
Terry Thiele
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2. Terry Thiele
Terry Thiele has been with The Lubrizol Corporation for 13 years, during
which time his principal responsibilities have included strategic planning
support and regulatory compliance and advocacy, with an emphasis on
environmental matters. Before joining Lubrizol, Terry performed
environmental policy and government relations functions for AB Electrolux
and the General Electric Company. Prior to that he spent the first 11 years of
his career working in the Federal government with service in the Treasury
Department, the Central Intelligence Agency, The Defense Intelligence
Agency and the Executive Office of the President. He received his B.A.
magna cum laude from Princeton University in 1976, his J.D. from the NYU
School of Law in 1979 and graduated from the National War College in 1987.
Terry served for over 10 years in the U.S. Army Reserve, Judge Advocate
General Corps, honorably discharged with the rank of captain.
Email: Terry.Thiele@lubrizol.com
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3. Questions, Commentary & Content
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4. Agenda
► New Business Development Definitions
► Why NBD is Critical
► NBD Challenges
► Finding NBD Opportunities
► Summary, Q&A and Discussion
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5. New Business Development (NBD) Definitions
Evolutionary innovation
improves an existing value chain incrementally
Revolutionary innovation
step-change improvement to existing value chain
Disruptive innovation
disrupts existing value chain with new and
different value proposition
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6. Forms of NBD
Customer Value
Evolutionary Innovation: incremental change
(“mountain climbing”)
Design Parameters
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7. Forms of NBD
Customer Value
Revolutionary Innovation: step-change
(“chasm leaping”)
Design Parameters
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8. Forms of NBD
Customer Value
Disruptive Innovation: different game
(“rule breaking”)
Design Parameters
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9. Forms of NBD
New Product Development
vs.
New Business Development
► New products
► New markets
► New value propositions
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10. Why NBD is Critical
Porter’s Five Forces
http://hbr.org/product/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/an/R0801E-PDF-ENG?referral=00269
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11. Why NBD is Critical
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/11/20/what-killed-michael-porters-monitor-group-the-one-force-that-really-matters/?utm_medium=linkedin
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12. Why NBD is Critical
What has no future is strategy conceived as defeating
rivals by finding a sustainable comparative advantage
simply through studying the structure of the industry and
juggling the numbers.
Since Monitor had no other arrow in its strategy quiver, it
was doomed from the outset. Its embarrassing debacle
marked the beginning of the end of the era of business
metaphysics and the exposure of the most over-valued
idea on the planet: sustainable competitive advantage.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/11/20/what-killed-michael-porters-monitor-group-the-one-force-that-really-matters/?utm_medium=linkedin
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13. Market Value – Revenue
Why NBD is Critical
“One of a Kind”
Value Migration
High Growth
High Margins
High Cost
Low Competition
Static Growth
Moderate Margins
Declining Cost
Increasing Competition
Declining Growth
Shrinking Margins
Low Cost
High Competition
“Commodity”
Value Creation – Stability – Value Destruction
Slywotzky, Adrian J. (1996), Value Migration: How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition, Boston, Mass: Harvard Bus School Press, ISBN 0-87584-632-7.
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14. Why NBD is Critical
Running a business is like
riding a bicycle…
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15. Why NBD is Critical
Running a business is like
riding a bicycle…
If you don’t keep peddling…
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16. Why NBD is Critical
Running a business is like
riding a bicycle…
If you don’t keep peddling…
You fall over.
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17. NBD Challenges
The importance of organization…
http://www.learnlogic.net/ideation-integrated-into-processes/
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18. NBD Challenges
The importance of culture…
Culture
Culture
Culture
Culture
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19. NBD Challenges
The importance of market analysis…
A cautionary tale
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20. NBD Challenges
The importance of TIME…
A cautionary tale
Tolerances…
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21. Finding NBD Opportunities
So where do you start?
Go to where the food is…
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22. Finding NBD Opportunities
Strategic Business Planning
– Assumes ability to forecast future events.
– Focuses on planning for an anticipated future.
– Driven by probable, not potential impact.
Scenario Planning
– Identifies alternative possible futures X years out and then
looks back to the present (“backcasting”).
– Possible futures based upon major transformational themes
likely to affect business beyond year X.
– Driven by potential impact, not probability.
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23. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
Strategic Business Planning
– Assumes ability to forecast future events.
– Focuses on planning for an anticipated future.
– Driven by probable, not potential impact.
Scenario Planning
– Identifies alternative possible futures X years out and then
looks back to the present (“backcasting”).
– Possible futures based upon major transformational themes
likely to affect business beyond year X.
– Driven by potential impact, to probability.
Scenario planning  foresightnotrecognize, adapt and possibly
influence future events before they hit you…
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24. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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25. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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26. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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27. Current – Markets/Customers – New
Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
SCARY
SAFE
Current
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–
Products/Technology
–
New
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28. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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29. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
1. Describe your entire value chain
RAW MATERIALS
TRANSPORTATION
MANUFACTURING
WHO VALUES
WHAT?
TRANSPORTATION
RETAIL CHANNEL 1
RETAIL CHANNEL 2
CONSUMER A
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RETAIL CHANNEL n
CONSUMER Ω
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30. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
2. Describe your competitors’ value chain(s)
RAW MATERIALS
TRANSPORTATION
MANUFACTURING
WHO VALUES
WHAT?
TRANSPORTATION
RETAIL CHANNEL 1
RETAIL CHANNEL 2
CONSUMER A
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RETAIL CHANNEL n
CONSUMER Ω
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31. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
3. Compare and contrast
WHO VALUES WHAT?
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32. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
4. ID critical uncertainties for each link in all
value chains out X years.
NEW ALTERNATIVES?
RAIL CAPACITY?
3D PRINTING?
SHALE OIL IMPACT?
INTERNET SALES?
DEMOGRAPHICS?
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33. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
5. Assess the critical uncertainties. Are they
evolutionary? revolutionary? disruptive?
NEW ALTERNATIVES?
RAIL CAPACITY?
3D PRINTING?
SHALE OIL IMPACT?
INTERNET SALES?
DEMOGRAPHICS?
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34. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
6. Take the two most
“important” critical
uncertainties for
each value chain:
build scenarios.
► Depending on the value chains, you may
have more than one set of scenarios.
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35. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
CURRENT
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36. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
7. Ask WHO VALUES WHAT in each scenario.
► Directionally, this should point you toward future
potentially profitable value offerings.
► Depending on the critical uncertainties, how you choose
to act may influence which scenario actually emerges.
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37. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
8. Build your NBD strategy.
► STRATEGIC PLANNING: TOPIC FOR ANOTHER DAY ...
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38. Finding NBD Opportunities: A WARNING …
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39. Finding NBD Opportunities: A WARNING …
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40. Thank you! Now how about a
little Q&A?
Email: Terry.Thiele@Lubrizol.com
Terry Thiele
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
The Intelligence Collaborative
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