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12/07/2011




             DRAFT MOT MINISTER REGULATION
             ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN
                         (NPMP)
                     9 AUGUST 2011
Disclaimer

This document is being finalized by DGST (MOT) in cooperation with IndII. It mostly
refers to previous IndII support on development of NPMP since July 2009 (under phase
1, 2 and 3).

This document is still in the form of preliminary draft, which need further discussions
and consultations with various stakeholders. It is planned that by November 2011 the
Final Draft MOT Regulation on NPMP can be issued.



NPMP Consultant Team
DRAFT
                  MOT MINISTER REGULATION
           ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN (NPMP)


CONSIDERING THAT:
   a. Article 71, Shipping Law No. 17 the year of 2008 and Article 7, 8, and 9 of
      Government Regulation No 61, the year of 2009 regarding Ports provide that
      NPMP shall be formulated
   b. Based on Article 71 Para (4) of the Shipping Law, NPMP shall be decided by the
      Minister
   c. Taking into consideration to the statements as described in a and b above, the
      NPMP is needed to be stipulated in Minister of Transport Regulation

REFERRING TO:
   1. Shipping Law No. 17 the year of 2008
   2. Government Regulation No. 61 the year of 2009 regarding Ports
   3. President Regulation No 47 the Year of 2009 regarding Establishment and
       Organization of State Ministers
   4. Minister of Transport Regulation No KM 43 the Year of 2005 regarding
       Organization, and Working Arrangement of the Ministry of Transport as
       amended with Minister of Transport Regulation No 20 the year of 2008

Has decided to stipulate: Minister of Transport Regulation regarding NMPM


Article 1
NPMP containing National Port Policy and Port Location Plan and Port Hierarchy is an
integrated part of National Port System


Article 2
NPMP provides guidance for stipulating port location, construction, operation and
development, and arrangement of a Port Master Plan
The NPMP is developed with consideration of:
    • National Spatial Plan, Provincial Spatial Plan, and Local Spatial Plan
    • Potential for regional economic and socio economic development
    • Potential for natural resource development
    • Development of the strategic environment, either domestic or international


Article 3
The NPMP is stipulated for a period of 20 years and should be reviewed and updated
every 5 (five) years
If there is a change in the strategic environment, the NPMP may be reviewed more
than once every years
Revision of the NPMP may be made based on the 5 (five) years evaluation
The contain of NPMP is elaborated as described in the Attachment



Article 4
Director General of Sea Transport shall supervise and take further action needed to
implement the NPMP



Article 5
This Regulation shall take into effect as the date of enactment.
To promulgate this law to the public, it is hereby ordered to announce the enactment
of this Minister of Transport Regulation by placing it in the State Gazette of the
Republic Indonesia




Stipulated in Jakarta on the dated of ...... 2011
Minister of Transport


Freddy Numberi
LAMPIRAN         :       PERMENHUB NO.___ NOPEMBER 2011
                         PERATURAN MENTERI PERHUBUNGAN
TENTANG         :        RENCANA INDUK PELABUHAN NASIONAL

DRAFT ATTACHMENT:
REGULATION OF MOT MINISTER ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN


1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Vision of National Port Master Plan
The vision is to create a strong economic base that provides port planning and
development, in particular as regards with connecting reinventing of port management
in Indonesia including empowering port authorities competencies, clear direction and
strengthen the main economic drivers and diversify into new sectors /main
commodities, inclusive connect more developed regions to lagging regions and achieve
sustainable development and targeted economic and social development measures.


1.2.Target 2030
The 2030 vision encompasses “. . . a national port system that will contribute to
consistently reducing international and domestic transport costs” by:
            – Being able to accommodate the ships that will provide the lowest sea-
                freight costs
            – Serving ships promptly and effectively without causing undue delay
            – Ensuring high levels of cargo handling productivity
            – Optimizing the cost of port service delivery”

By 2030, 16 of Indonesia’s main container ports will need to provide additional
capacity. This includes accommodation for 9.4 million TEU at Tanjung Priok, 4.3 million
TEU at Tanjung Perak, 1.9 million TEU at Belawan/Kuala Tanjung and 0.9 million TEU at
Makassar.

The estimated total direct investment in port facilities for these elements of port traffic
is US$ 19.2 billion, 60 percent is needed for container traffic, 18 percent for petroleum
and petroleum products, 13 percent for coal, and 9 percent for CPO.

 It is estimated that about 70-75 percent of the investment in new Indonesian
container terminals could be provided by the private sector under long-term
concession arrangements. The remaining 25-30 percent of the investment for common
port infrastructure such as channel deepening and breakwaters will need to be
provided by the public sector.

    •   Port performance target
2.         PRESENT/CURRENT PORT CONDITIONS

2.1.       Policy Framework


Indonesian laws and regulations influence to the port management in Indonesia as a
National Policy:

       •   Shipping Law No. 17/2008 and GR 61/2009
       •   Masterplan of acceleration and expansion of Indonesia                economic
           development/ Indonesia economic corridor (MP3EI)
       •   National Transportation System (SISTRANAS)
       •   Blueprint of Intermodal/Multimodal Transport KM 15/2010
       •   Blueprint National Logistics System (Draft)
       •   National Spatial Plan Act No. 26/2008
       •   Economic Zone of Industries (KEK) Act. No. 39/2009
       •   Investment of Capital Act. No. 25/2007
       •   Fairness of Competition Act. No. 5/1999
       •   Regional Government Act. No. 32/2004
       •   National Development Planning (RPJM, RPJP)
       •   Presidential Regulation No. 67/2005 and 13/2010 (PPP)
       •   International Conventions related to port affair


2.2.       Port Traffic, Facilities and Operations
       •   In 2009, a total of 968.4 million tons were handled at Indonesian ports,
           consisting of 560.4 million tons of dry bulk cargo (nearly three-quarters of
           which was coal), 176.1 million tons of liquid bulk cargo (86 percent of which
           was petroleum and petroleum products or CPO), 143.7 million tons of general
           cargo and 88.2 million tons of containerized cargo.
       •   Foreign trade accounted for 543.4 million tons or 56 percent of the total
           volume of cargo handled at Indonesian ports in 2009. Export shipments at
           442.5 million tons accounted for more than 80 percent of the foreign trade,
           while imports of 101.0 million tons accounted for 20 percent of the foreign
           trade. The export figures are higher due to the substantial volume of coal
           exports of 278.6 million tons in 2009.


       •   Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type (000’s tons) - 2009
600,000
       000's tons
                    500,000

                    400,000

                    300,000

                    200,000

                    100,000

                            -
                                   General        Container      Dry Bulk        Liquid Bulk
                                    Cargo
                      Loading      55,430          13,610        123,771           19,675
                      Unloading     55,430         13,613        123,743           19,675
                      Export        14,212         30,342        303,133           94,769
                      Import        18,628         30,658         9,719            41,954




    •               Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type, 1999 and 2009 (000’s
                    tons)



                    180,000
   000's tons




                    160,000
                    140,000
                    120,000
                    100,000
                     80,000
                     60,000
                     40,000
                     20,000
                          -
                                  General Cargo     Container Cargo         Liquid Bulk
                        1999         70,966             27,692               148,644
                        2009        143,699             88,222               176,072




                600,000
000's tons




                500,000

                400,000

                300,000

                200,000

                100,000

                        -
                                    1999           2009
                    Dry Bulk       95,176         560,366
•   Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s tons)




•   Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type, 2009 (000’s tons)
•     Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons)
Trade flow                                                             AAGR
 and cargo type                         1999               2009      1999-2009

IMPORTS
General cargo                         11,777            18,628             4.7%
Container cargo                        6,755            30,658            16.3%
Dry Bulk                              12,281             9,719            -2.3%
Liquid Bulk                           17,327            41,954             9.2%
  Subtotal                            48,140           100,958             7.7%

EXPORTS
General cargo                        16,635             14,212            -1.6%
Container cargo                       8,568             30,342            13.5%
Dry Bulk                             41,511            303,133            22.0%
Liquid Bulk                          38,535             94,769             9.4%
  Subtotal                          105,249            442,457            15.4%

DOMESTIC UNLOADING
General cargo                        25,018             55,430             8.3%
Container cargo                       5,844             13,613             8.8%
Dry Bulk                             26,885            123,743            16.5%
Liquid Bulk                          45,448             19,675            -8.0%
  Subtotal                          103,195            212,460             7.5%

DOMESTIC LOADING
General cargo                         17,535            55,430            12.2%
Container cargo                        6,525            13,610             7.6%
Dry Bulk                              14,499           123,771            23.9%
Liquid Bulk                           47,334            19,675            -8.4%
  Subtotal                            85,893           212,485             9.5%

TOTAL
General cargo                        70,966           143,699              7.3%
Container cargo                      27,692            88,222             12.3%
Dry Bulk                             95,176           560,366             19.4%
Liquid Bulk                         148,644           176,072              1.7%
  Total                             342,477           968,361             11.0%
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST and Pelindio data.
•     Indonesian General Cargo and Container Traffic by Trade Flow, 1999 and 2009 (000’s
         tons)
                                Foreign Trade                       Domestic Trade
Type of cargo         Imports      Exports    Subtotal      Unloading Loading     Subtotal           Total

1999
General Cargo            11,777      16,635      28,412          25,018       17,535     42,553      70,966
Container                 6,755       8,568      15,323           5,844        6,525     12,368      27,692
Total                    18,532      25,203      43,735          30,862       24,059     54,922      98,657
 % Containerized          36.5%       34.0%       35.0%           18.9%        27.1%      22.5%       28.1%

2009
General Cargo           18,628       14,212       32,840          55,430      55,430    110,859     143,699
Container               30,658       30,342       61,000          13,613      13,610     27,223      88,222
Total                   49,286       44,554       93,840          69,042      69,040    138,082     231,922
 % Containerized         62.2%         68.1%       65.0%           19.7%       19.7%      19.7%       38.0%
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST and Pelindio data.




   •     Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2009
         (000’s tons)

                                Foreign Trade                     Domestic Trade
Type of cargo            Imports Exports Subtotal          Unloading Loading Subtotal             Total

General Cargo             18,628    14,212     32,840          55,430       55,430   110,859    143,699

Container                 30,658    30,342     61,000          13,613       13,610     27,223     88,222

Dry Bulk                   9,719   303,133    312,852         123,743      123,771   247,514    560,366
 Cement                      -         144        144           7,459        7,483    14,941     15,085
 Coal                        685   278,618    279,303          69,674       69,674   139,349    418,652
 Iron Ore                  1,862     8,669     10,531              46           46        91     10,623
 Fertilizer                3,360     1,802      5,162          15,331       15,334    30,665     35,828
 Grain                     3,469       363      3,832           1,172        1,172     2,343      6,175
 Other Dry Bulk              343    13,537     13,879          30,062       30,062    60,124     74,003

Liquid Bulk               41,954    94,769    136,723          19,675       19,675     39,349   176,072
  Petroleum & Products    31,801    59,309     91,110             192          192        385    91,495
  CPO                        269    22,169     22,438          19,243       19,243     38,485    60,923
  Other Liquid Bulk        9,884    13,291     23,175             240          240        479    23,654

Total                  100,958 442,457 543,415                212,460      212,485   424,946    968,361
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST shipping data.
•     Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s tons)
                             Foreign Trade                  Domestic Trade
Port                Imports Exports Subtotal        UnloadingLoading Subtotal Total
Samarinda                260     52,875    53,135      6,193 12,911 19,104 72,239
Tg. Priok             23,060     20,930    43,990     10,840 12,272 23,112 67,101
Tg. Perak             13,410       7,243   20,653     18,856 19,269 38,125 58,778
Bontang                  678     46,764    47,442        300       566       866 48,308
Pontianak                  52        250      302     13,175 33,371 46,546 46,847
Tg. Bara                 221     41,179    41,400        -         -         -    41,400
Perawang                 113         534      647     29,443     8,142 37,586 38,233
Taboneo                  103     36,043    36,146        213       224       437 36,582
Kendawangan              -           340      340     15,632 15,632 31,263 31,603
Dumai                    857     18,604    19,461      6,415       868     7,283 26,744
Adang Bay                  72    25,278    25,350        -         -         -    25,350
Balikpapan             3,155     18,859    22,013      2,613       228     2,841 24,854
Belawan                5,602       7,576   13,178      5,183     2,120     7,303 20,480
Kota Baru                441     18,434    18,876        165     1,404     1,569 20,445
Banjarmasin              143     11,658    11,800      6,632     1,011     7,642 19,443
Tg. Balai Karimun      5,988     11,337    17,326        -            3         3 17,329
Tg. Emas               3,572       2,709    6,282      3,594     7,120 10,714 16,995
Merak                  3,630       1,427    5,058      1,997     7,892     9,889 14,947
Tarakan                  -         6,468    6,468      3,900    4,072      7,972 14,440
Muara Pantai             -       14,394    14,394        -         -         -    14,394
Makassar                 964         381    1,345      7,197     4,138 11,335 12,680
Muara Satui                58      7,876    7,934      1,612     1,621     3,232 11,167
Kuala Tungkal              47        272      319        188     9,358     9,546   9,865
Satui                    -           246      246          38    8,947     8,985   9,231
Teluk Melano             -           -        -        8,947       -       8,947   8,947
Kuaro                    -           -        -        8,934       -       8,934   8,934
STS Karimun            4,420       4,423    8,843        -         -         -     8,843
Falabisahaya             -           -        -        8,350         29    8,379   8,379
Cilacap                6,344       1,787    8,131          26        38        64  8,195
Bitung                     22        865      887      3,537     3,741     7,277   8,164
Panjang                2,198       3,086    5,283      1,634       550     2,184   7,467
Palembang                286       1,636    1,922      1,700     2,363     4,063   5,985
Ambon                       0        157      157      2,901     2,924     5,825   5,982
Teluk Bayur              156       3,331    3,487        988     1,298     2,287   5,773
Cigading               4,706         670    5,376          74      312       386   5,762
P. Laut                    72      5,616    5,688        -         -         -     5,688
Tuban                      83      1,580    1,663        371    3,632      4,003   5,666
Tg. Pemancingan            50      5,387    5,437           0        48        49  5,485
Tarahan                  140       3,997    4,137        670       581     1,252   5,389
Sei Putting              -           -        -        2,358     2,268     4,626   4,626
Batu Ampar               523       3,868    4,391           4         5         9  4,400
Muara Berau                 4      3,487    3,491           3      759       761   4,252
Gresik                 2,448         626    3,074        529       640     1,169   4,244
Sunda Kelapa             -           -        -        2,708     1,160     3,868   3,868
Lawi-Lawi              3,494         186    3,679        -         -         -     3,679
Balongan               3,122         476    3,597           3         2         5  3,602
Bintuni                     7        520      527      3,020         33    3,053   3,580
Kumai                      34        248      282        579     2,663     3,241   3,523
Tg. Batu                   16        189      205        523     2,636     3,159   3,364
P. Sambu                   96          22     118      2,867       328     3,195   3,313
  Top 50 ports        90,646 394,089 484,735         185,001 177,232 362,233 846,968
All other ports      10,312     48,368    58,680     27,459    35,253   62,713    121,392

Total all ports     100,958 442,457 543,415             212,460 212,485 424,946   968,361
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
•      Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2009
            (000’s tons)
                                                                      Dry Bulk                                                   Liquid Bulk
                                                                                            Other                                       Other
                    General                                                                  Dry                   Petrol. &             Liq.
Port                 Cargo Container Cement         Coal    Iron Ore Fertilizer   Grain      Bulk Subtotal         Products     CPO      Bulk Subtotal Total
Samarinda              4,227     950       64       65,639         45     191        581         58 66,577                 8        37     440     485  72,239
Tg. Priok             10,273  39,228   3,861         5,325       232      246      1,698     1,978 13,340             2,725       525    1,010   4,260  67,101
Tg. Perak             12,632  17,443     319         4,042       181      832      1,528    11,824 18,727             1,762     7,478      735   9,975  58,778
Bontang                  258        9      22       19,368       -      2,007           4        70 21,471           25,616         13     942  26,571  48,308
Pontianak             24,745     992     968        10,024       -      9,011          21         0 20,023                22    1,041        23  1,086  46,847
Tg. Bara                 262     -       -          40,818       -        148        -           28 40,994              -         -        144     144  41,400
Perawang              24,694     627       16          990       -            3         1   11,837 12,847                 15         5       45      64 38,233
Taboneo                  448     -       -          35,718       272         16      -         -    36,005              -         -        129     129  36,582
Kendawangan                 0    -       -             -         340       -         -      31,263 31,603               -         -        -       -    31,603
Dumai                  5,916     -       205           414          2     408           4        84  1,118            9,093    10,073      545  19,711  26,744
Adang Bay                -       -       -          25,019         36     100        -         -    25,155              -         -        195     195  25,350
Balikpapan               925     381       14       15,412       -           69         8      522 16,025             3,668       193    3,663   7,524  24,854
Belawan                2,486   8,884     876         2,033         20     704          65      316   4,015              776     4,106      213   5,096  20,480
Kota Baru                472        5      26       18,431       989          2         1         7 19,456              249       140      123     512  20,445
Banjarmasin              809   1,180     115        16,765       197      275           9        11 17,373                 7        65        9      81 19,443
Tg. Balai Karimun        438     -       -             245       -            2         0    2,418   2,666           12,876          3   1,346  14,225  17,329
Tg. Emas                 704   5,752       85        9,596       -        169        189         64 10,104                67      240      128     435  16,995
Merak                  6,067     637     -           4,281       -         -         -           86  4,367              335         18   3,523   3,875  14,947
Tarakan                  327     173     -          13,651         90        15      -         148 13,905                 35      -        -         35 14,440
Muara Pantai             -       -       -          14,339         54      -         -         -    14,393              -            1     -          1 14,394
Makassar               1,166   2,505     305         7,320         10     102      1,104         57  8,897                 9        93        9    112  12,680
Muara Satui              -       -       -          10,971       174       -           21      -    11,167              -         -        -       -    11,167
Kuala Tungkal          6,779     225     -             -         -      2,812           3        14  2,829                21         8        4      33  9,865
Satui                       2    -          0          232       -         -         -         -       232              -       8,996      -     8,996   9,231
Teluk Melano                0    -       -             -         -      8,946        -         -     8,946              -            1     -          1  8,947
Kuaro                    -       -       -             -         -         -         -         -       -                -       8,933         1  8,934   8,934
STS Karimun                29    -       -             -         -         -         -         967     967            6,701       -      1,146   7,847   8,843
Falabisahaya               59    -       -           8,319       -         -            0         0  8,320                 0      -        -          0  8,379
Cilacap                1,311     -       -               60      -           48      227       -       335            5,627         19     902   6,549   8,195
Bitung                 6,378     626       28          -         -           27        26        90    172                 0      988      -       988   8,164
Panjang                  760   3,017     174           965       155      707          47        68  2,116              156     1,192      226   1,574   7,467
Palembang                296     620       76        2,883       -      1,011          41        66  4,076                62      874        56    992   5,985
Ambon                  5,642     152       26          -         -            0        24        96    146                41      -        -         41  5,982
Teluk Bayur              927     421   1,326           603       174      279          12        13  2,406                16    2,003      -     2,019   5,773
Cigading               3,370       18    112             93    1,824      191        -           10  2,231              114       -          29    143   5,762
P. Laut                    14    -       -           5,518       -         -         -           14  5,533                47      -          95    142   5,688
Tuban                    406     -       163         3,539       -           10         0      299   4,011              879       -        370   1,249   5,666
Tg. Pemancingan             1    -       -           5,113       334       -         -         -     5,447              -         -          38      38  5,485
Tarahan                  211     -       -           5,162       -         -            5         4  5,171                 1      -           6       7  5,389
Sei Putting              -       -       -           4,614       -           12      -         -     4,626              -         -        -       -     4,626
Batu Ampar             1,054     468        8          142         60         2      -       2,558   2,769                 7        83       19    109   4,400
Muara Berau                 2    -       -           4,246       -            4      -         -     4,250              -         -        -       -     4,252
Gresik                   194       14      44          -           20   2,682          10      361   3,117              225       -        694     919   4,244
Sunda Kelapa               86    -       950           -         -      2,823           3         5  3,780                 0      -           1       1  3,868
Lawi-Lawi                -       -       -             -         -         -         -         -       -              3,653       -          26  3,679   3,679
Balongan                 171     -       -             -         -         -         -         -       -              2,834       -        598   3,432   3,602
Bintuni                    52       1  3,000           -         -         -            2         3  3,006              497       -          23    520   3,580
Kumai                      15      19       5          403         76        14         5      -       502              -       2,987      -     2,987   3,523
Tg. Batu                   25    -       -           3,326       -         -         -            1  3,326                 6      -           7      12  3,364
P. Sambu                    1    -       -           3,192       -         -         -         -                          97      -          23          3,313
  Top 50 ports      124,666   84,462 12,792        368,813     5,509  33,874      5,639     65,365 488,799     -     78,249    50,117 17,484 145,729 846,968
All other ports     19,034      3,761       2,294   49,839     5,114      1,953     536      8,638    71,567         13,246    10,807    6,170    30,343   121,392
Total all ports    143,699    88,222 15,085 418,652 10,623               35,828   6,175     74,003   560,366         91,495    60,923   23,654   176,072   968,361
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
•      Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Container Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s TEU)
                       Foreign Trade                  Domestic Trade
Port           Imports Exports Subtotal        Unloading Loading Subtotal Total
Tg. Priok        1,605     1,485     3,090           328      505      833 3,923
Tg. Perak          630       576     1,206           256      282      539 1,744
Belawan            302       309       610           180        98     278   888
Tg. Emas           291       253       543             17       15       32  575
Panjang            137       139       277             14       11       25  302
Makassar              2      -            2          144      104      249   250
Banjarmasin        -         -         -               61       57     118   118
Pontianak          -         -         -               70       29       99   99
Samarinda             0      -            0            50       45       95   95
Pekanbaru            11        32        44            16       13       30   73
Merak                25        36        61             1        1        3   64
Perawang              1        53        54             4        5        9   63
Bitung             -         -         -               27       36       63   63
Palembang            16        16        33            14       15       29   62
Batu Ampar           18        29        47          -        -        -      47
Teluk Bayur        -         -         -               20       22       42   42
Balikpapan            1         2         3            19       16       35   38
Batam                 1         3         4            15       11       26   30
Jayapura           -         -         -               12       15       28   28
Buatan                2        26        27          -        -        -      27
Kabil                12        15        27             0        0        0   27
Kuala Tungkal         0        22        22          -        -        -      22
Sorong             -         -         -               13        9       22   22
Tarakan            -         -         -                9        8       17   17
Ambon              -         -         -                7        8       15   15
Batu Licin         -         -         -                7        7       14   14
Bau-Bau            -         -         -                7        4       11   11
Biak               -         -         -                7        3       10   10
Merauke            -         -         -                6        4       10   10
P. Burung          -           10        10          -        -        -      10
Talang Duku           4         5         9          -        -        -       9
Palu               -         -         -                5        4        9    9
Timika             -         -         -                5        4        9    9
Kendari            -         -         -                6        3        9    9
S. Guntung         -            8         8          -        -        -       8
Fak-Fak            -         -         -                4        3        7    7
Manokwari          -         -         -                4        3        7    7
Nabire             -         -         -                4        3        6    6
Benoa              -         -         -                3        3        6    6
Benete                2         3         5          -        -        -       5
Jambi                 2         2         5          -        -        -       5
Muntok                2         2         4          -        -        -       4
Sampit             -         -         -                2        2        4    4
S. Buatan             0         3         4          -        -        -       4
Pantoloan          -         -         -                2        1        3    3
Pangkal Balam         1         1         3             0     -           0    3
Malili             -         -         -                1        1        2    2
Tg. Pandan         -         -         -                1        1        2    2
Kumai              -         -         -                1        1        2    2
Luwuk              -         -         -                1        0        2    2
  Top 50 ports   3,064     3,031     6,095         1,347   1,354     2,700 8,796

All other ports       1         3         5            14         7        22      26
Total all ports   3,066    3,034      6,100         1,361     1,361      2,722   8,822
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
•   Indonesian Main Ports for Containers, Selected Years, 1990-2009 (TEU)
                                                                               Avergae annual growth rate (%)
    Port               1990         2000         2008         2009       1990-2009     1990-2000 2000-2009 2000-2008
    Tanjung Priok      643,582    2,494,606    3,973,661     3,799,411           9.8       14.5       4.8        5.8
    Tanjung Perak      198,135      915,000    2,213,477     1,744,300          12.1       16.5       7.4       12.3
    Belawan             82,585      311,089      590,069      888,400           13.3       14.2      12.4        6.4
    Tanjung Emas        37,361      262,697      468,177      576,100           15.5       21.5       9.1        7.3
    Makasar               6,457     164,684      362,452      463,818           25.2       38.2      12.2        9.3
    Banjarmasin           2,766     142,958      258,034      284,282           27.6       48.4       7.9       11.3
    Samarinda               -        68,685      167,387      266,438            -          -        16.3       11.8
    Pontianak              847       93,098      132,732      133,419           30.5       60.0       4.1        3.5
    Panjang             19,386       76,090      106,935      104,175            9.3       14.7       3.6        4.3
    Palembang             8,300      45,657       78,469       84,403           13.0       18.6       7.1        7.8
    Bitung                 134       66,737      105,405       61,914           38.1       86.1      (0.8)        5.9
    Pekanbaru              -         14,236       50,548       57,612            -          -        16.8       (10.0)
    Balikpapan             754       22,401       70,952       52,844           25.1       40.4      10.0       10.1
    Jambi                   -        36,655       54,276       52,086            -          -         4.0        5.8
    Teluk Bayur             -        12,383       48,503       47,633            -          -        16.1       16.0
    Batam a/                        133,345      125,000      104,200            -          -         (2.7)      (0.9)
    Jayapura                -           264       30,405       25,592            -          -        66.2       72.0
    Sorong                  -         2,163       18,832       24,110            -          -        30.7       23.3
       Subtotal      1,000,307    4,860,585    8,836,482     8,746,627          12.1       17.1       6.7        7.4

    Other ports             -        67,915       45,984      224,911            -          -        14.2        (4.7)

    Total            1,000,307    4,928,500    8,882,466     8,971,538          12.2       17.3       6.9        7.3
    a/Batam includes Batu Ampar and Kabil.
    Source: Compiled by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST, Pelindo II and other data.




•   Indonesian Main Ports for Containers, Selected Years, 1990-2009 (TEU)




                                                                                                                         14
•   Domestic and International Container Traffic at All Indonesian Ports, 1990-2009 (TEU)


               9,000,000
        TEUs


               8,000,000                                                                                                                                         International
               7,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                 Domestic
               6,000,000
               5,000,000
                4,000,000
                3,000,000
                2,000,000
                1,000,000
                        -
                            1990
                            1991
                                   1992
                                          1993
                                                 1994
                                                        1995
                                                               1996
                                                                      1997
                                                                             1998
                                                                                    1999
                                                                                           2000
                                                                                                  2001
                                                                                                         2002
                                                                                                                2003
                                                                                                                       2004
                                                                                                                              2005
                                                                                                                                     2006
                                                                                                                                            2007
                                                                                                                                                   2008

                                                                                                                                                          2009
                                                                                                                                               Year



   •   Resume of port facilities in Indonesian
   •   Resume of port performance 2009/2010


3. NATIONAL PORT POLICY

   •   Greater participation of private sector, fair competition in providing maritime transport
       services (including port services), regional government autonomy, accountability of
       government institution governance, and greater concern for maritime safety and security
       and environmental preservation for the sake of national interest.
   •   As node of transportation network, gateway for economic activities, interfaces of
       multimodal transport, promoting industry and trading activities, cargo consolidation centre,
       promoting “wawasan nusantara”
   •   Separation of regulator and operator functions (reflected by establishing of PA/PMU and
       Port Business Entity)
   •   PA/PMU shall be landlord authority and shall be clearly reflected in the establishment of
       PA/PMU
   •   PA shall have a certain degree of autonomy in organizing commercial port
   •   Increasing PSP under fair competition environment
   •   PSP could be in term of PPP through concession agreement or other form of cooperation
       with PA/PMU
   •   Restructure the status of Pelindo versus the role of PA landlord organizations and as
       regulators
   •   Clear guidelines on the formulation of operational regulations by PA/PMU
   •   The Ministry develops port policies related to:
           o Planning and development of basic infrastructure including port entrances,
               lighthouses, aid to navigation, port basin, and breakwater
           o Planning and development of ports (location, function, type of management
           o Planning and development of port hinterland connection
   •   Procedure of new port development (Greenfield) and new public terminal shall be clearly
       formulated


                                                                                                                                                                             15
4. FUTURE PORT DEVELOPMENT

4.1.       Strategic Environment
       •   Preparing the port traffic forecast, with representatives of other economic, spatial and logistical
           planning efforts currently being implemented in Indonesia. These include:
               •        Masterplan of Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development
                        2011-2025 (MP3EI)
               •        National Transportation System (SISTRANAS)
               •        Blueprint of Intermodal/Multimodal Transport and National Logistics System
               •        Strategic Plan of National Transportation Development
       •   The MP3EI directive is aimed at implementing the 2005 to 2025 Long-term National Development
           Plan, which is stated in the Law No. 17 Year 2007, the vision of the acceleration and expansion of
           Indonesia’s economic development is to create a self-sufficient, advanced, just, and prosperous
           Indonesia. By utilizing the MP3EI, Indonesia aims to earn its place as one of the world’s developed
           countries by 2025 with expected per capita income of US$ 14,250-US$ 15,500 with total GDP of US$
           4.0-4.5 trillion. To achieve the above objectives, real annual economic growth of 6.4-7.5 percent is
           expected for the period of 2011 to 2014. This economic growth is expected to coincide with the
           decrease in the rate of inflation from 6.5 percent in 2011 to 2014 to 3.0 percent in 2025 .
       •   The 2025’s vision is achieved by focusing on three main goals:
               •        Increase value adding and expanding value chain for industrial production
                        processes, and increase the efficiency of the distribution network. In addition
                        increase the capability of industry to access and utilize natural resources and
                        human resources. These increases can be attained by the creation of economic
                        activities within regions as well as among regional centers of economic growth.
               •        Encourage efficiency in production and improve marketing efforts to further
                        integrate domestic markets in order to push for competitiveness and strengthen
                        the national economy.
               •        To push for the strengthening of the national innovation system in the areas of
                        production, process, and marketing with a focus on the overall strengthening of
                        sustainable global competitiveness towards an innovation-driven economy.
       •   Acceleration and expansion of Indonesia’s economic development are based on the development of
           existing and creation of new growth centers. This development strategy is essentially an integration of
           the sectoral and regional development approaches. The purpose of developing new growth centers is
           to optimize agglomeration advantages, to exploit regional strengths, and to reduce spatial imbalance
           of economic development throughout the country. As part of this strategy, each region will develop
           their own specific local products.
       •   The development of economic growth centers will be managed through the development of industrial
           clusters and special economic zones (SEZ). This will be accompanied with increased and improved
           connectivity between the centers of economic growth (major cities) and main industrial clusters
           supported by improved infrastructure including roads, seaports, airports, power, water, and other
           related infrastructures. In all, growth centers and connectivity are the building blocks of Indonesia
           Economic Corridors. Increasing the economic potential of the region through the economic corridors
           has become one of the three main pillars of MP3EI.
       •   The success of the MP3EI depends on the strength of national and international economic
           connectivity (intra and inter region). With this consideration, the MP3EI has identified the
           strengthening of national connectivity as one of three main pillars. National connectivity consist of
           four national policy elements i.e. National Logistic System (Sistem Logistik Nasional/Sislognas),


                                                                                                               16
National Transportation System (Sistem Transportasi Nasional/Sistranas), Regional Development
                    (RPJMN/RTRWN), and Information and Communication Technology (ICT). These policies were
                    combined in order to create an effective, efficient, and integrated national connectivity.
             •      The development of economic corridors in Indonesia is based on the potentials and advantages
                    inherent in each region. As a country consisting of thousands of islands and located between two
                    continents and two oceans, the Indonesian archipelago has a unique combination of economic
                    potentials with each major island or region having its own strategic future role in achieving
                    Indonesia’s 2025 vision.


4.2.                Forecast of Indonesia Port Traffic

4.2.1               Future Trend of Port Demand
    •               The top 50 ports in Indonesia handled 846.9 million tons in 2009 or 87.2 percent of the total
                    traffic. Accounting for 89 percent of the foreign trade and 85 percent of the domestic trade
                    volumes in 2009.

4.2.2               Future Trend of Container Demand
    •               International Traffic, Modeling based on Other Countries & Indonesia GDP
    •               Domestic Traffic, by Indonesia GDP
    •               High growth of container demand also resulted from containerization of general cargo
    •               It is predicted that national container demand on 2030 might reach 29.4 Million TEUs of
                    International Traffic (6.2 Million TEUs on 2009) and 18.3 Million TEUs of Domestic Traffic
                    (2.7 Million TEUs on 2009)


             50,000
000's TEUs




             45,000
                                                                                                              Domestic
             40,000
                                                                                                              International
             35,000
             30,000
             25,000
                 20,000
                 15,000
                 10,000
                  5,000
                      -
                                 2009
                                2010
                                2011
                               2012
                               2013
                              2014
                              2015
                             2016
                             2017
                            2018
                            2019
                           2020
                           2021
                          2022
                          2023
                                                             2024
                                                                    2025
                                                                           2026
                                                                                  2027
                                                                                         2028
                                                                                                2029
                                                                                                       2030




                                                                                                 Year


4.2.3               Future Trend of Port Demand by Commodity Type
    •               General Cargo, the growth rates for domestic and international general cargo traffic are
                    about one-third of those forecast for containers. This reflects the recent growth rates
                    experienced for international general cargo traffic and the expectation that there will be
                    further containerization of domestic general cargo.
             •      Dry Bulk
                        o Cement, the Indonesia Cement Association prepares forecasts cement industry sales
                            which are forecast to increase to 49 million tons in 2015 corresponding to an
                            average annual growth rate of 4.8 percent and it is forecasted to be 113 million tons
                            of domestic cement sales by 2030, corresponding to an average growth rate of 5.7
                            percent.



                                                                                                                              17
o   Coal, Indonesia is one of the world leading producers of coal and leads the world in
            exports of thermal coal. In 2010, coal production in Indonesia totaled 325 million
            tons, of which 265 million tons were exported and 60 million tons were consumed
            domestically. Potential areas of expansion in Central Kalimantan and inland
            locations in Sumatera will require development of costly inland transportation
            systems. It is expected that until such inland transport systems are developed, coal
            production in Indonesia will increase modestly at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. As
            domestic consumption increases with the implementation of the national energy
            policy, Indonesian exports of coal are expected to remain flat or decline slightly.
        o Iron Ore, Large quantities of iron ore reserves are located in Kalimantan. However,
            the national iron ore production is mostly exported and not used in domestic
            steelmaking as Indonesia does not currently process iron ore into sponge iron or
            iron pellet. As such, and also due to the ferrous content of the iron ore, the domestic
            steel company PT. Krakatau Steel imports iron ore from Chile, Brazil and other
            countries. Hence, Indonesian port traffic for iron ore is in foreign trade, both for
            imports and exports. Iron ore port traffic is forecast to increase at an annual rate of
            4.9 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 4.6 percent from 2015 to 2020 reflecting the
            increased demand for steel domestically and the resulting requirement for increased
            iron ore imports as well as modest increases in iron ore production and exports.
        o Fertilizer, the increased use of fertilizer in Indonesian agriculture is a significant
            component of the MP3EI plans for increasing yields of Indonesian principal crops. In
            2011, Indonesian production of urea fertilizer is estimated at 7.1 million tons, about
            81 percent of the estimated production capacity of 8.8 million tons. Other major
            types of fertilizer produced in Indonesia are ammonia-based products and nitrogen-
            phosphorous and potassium (NPK) products.
        o Grain, grain traffic handled at Indonesian ports consists of foreign imports of wheat
            and other grains and domestic shipments of rice, corn and other common crops.
            The major grain that is imported is wheat. Presently Indonesian imports a total of
            about four and a half million tons of wheat annually, and more than half are passing
            through Tanjung Priok. It is forecasted that Indonesia will import a total of about 7
            million tons of wheat in 2030 as both population and per capita GDP increase.
        o Other Dry Bulk, other dry bulk commodities include other ores and minerals, sand
            and aggregates used for construction, chemical products, iron and steel and forestry
            products. This category of port traffic is forecast to increase at an average annual
            rate of 3.6 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 3.1 percent from 2015 to 2020.
•   Liquid Bulk
        o Petroleum and Petroleum Products, it can be expected that generally a low growth
            rate in future because of the probable removal of fuel subsidies and the likely high
            world price of crude oil in the long term. The factors affecting demand will be
            increasing population and rising per capita incomes. They estimated that demand
            will grow at 3.0 percent a year between 2009 and 2030.
        o Crude Palm Oil (CPO), Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world with
            19.5 million tons in 2009. Malaysia is a close second at 17.5 million tons in 2009.
            Together these two countries account for about 82 percent of global CPO
            production. It is believed that CPO production and shipments will increase at an
            average annual rate of 5.0 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 4.5 percent from 2015 to
            2020, based on the assumption that new areas being brought under production are
            limited. The rate of growth for CPO production is thus assumed to be approximately
            equal to the long-term growth rate of global CPO demand.
        o Other Liquid Bulk, includes chemical products and other edible oils and products,
            such as vegetable oil and molasses. These other liquid bulk products are shipped as


                                                                                                18
international trade and consist roughly of 60 percent exports and 40 percent
                imports. Indonesian port traffic of other liquid bulk products is forecast to increase
                at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent from 2009 to 2015 and by 3.5 percent from
                2015 to 2020.


4.2.4   Future Trend of Port Demand
    •   by Economic Corridor Development Area, Forecasting Year 2030 (tons), Base Case




   •    Assignment to specific port; container in TEUs




                                                                                                   19
•      Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2015 (000’s tons)
                                                                    Dry Bulk                                            Liquid Bulk
                                                                                       Other                                   Other
                  General                                   Iron                        Dry               Petrol. &             Liq.
Port               Cargo Container Cement         Coal      Ore Fertilizer Grain        Bulk Subtotal     Products     CPO      Bulk Subtotal   Total
Samarinda           5,523   1,859      121        75,670         60    252    654           71 76,829            11        50      557     617   84,828
Tg. Priok          13,425  76,710    7,327         6,138      309      324  1,912       2,445 18,455         3,548       703     1,279   5,531  114,121
Tg. Perak          16,506  34,111      606         4,660      240    1,097  1,721      14,615 22,940         2,295    10,022       931  13,247   86,805
Bontang               337       18       41       22,328       -     2,647       4          87 25,107       33,358         18    1,193  34,569   60,031
Pontianak          32,335   1,941    1,837        11,556       -    11,885      23           0 25,301            29    1,395         29  1,453   61,030
Tg. Bara              343     -        -          47,056       -       195    -             35 47,286          -         -         182     182   47,811
Perawang           32,269   1,226        30        1,141       -          4      1     14,631 15,807             19         6        57      83  49,385
Taboneo               585     -        -          41,176      362        21   -           -    41,558          -         -         163     163   42,307
Kendawangan              0    -        -             -        451      -      -        38,642 39,093           -         -         -       -     39,093
Dumai               7,730     -        390           477          2    539       5        104   1,517       11,841    13,498       691  26,030   35,277
Adang Bay             -       -        -          28,843         48    132    -           -    29,023          -         -         247     247   29,270
Balikpapan          1,208     745        26       17,768       -         91      9        645 18,539         4,776       259     4,640   9,675   30,167
Belawan/ K Tanjung 4,279   17,373    1,699         2,389         26    947      74        395   5,530        1,160     7,915       271   9,347   36,529
Kota Baru             616        9       49       21,248    1,313         3      1           9 22,624          324       188       156     668   23,917
Banjarmasin         1,058   2,308      219        19,328      262      363      10          14 20,195             8        87        11    107   23,667
Tg. Balai Karimun     573     -        -             282       -          3      0      2,989   3,274       16,768          4    1,706  18,477   22,324
Tg. Emas              920  11,249      162        11,062       -       223    213           80 11,739            88      322       162     572   24,480
Merak               7,929   1,246      -           4,935       -       -      -           106   5,041          436         24    4,462   4,923   19,138
Tarakan               428     339      -          15,738      119        20   -           183 16,060             46      -         -         46  16,872
Muara Pantai          -       -        -          16,531         71    -      -           -    16,602          -            1      -          1  16,604
Makassar            1,524   4,898      579         8,439         13    135  1,243           70 10,478            12      125         12    148   17,048
Muara Satui           -       -        -          12,648      231      -        24        -    12,903          -         -         -       -     12,903
Kuala Tungkal       8,858     439      -             -         -     3,709       3          18  3,730            27        11         5      43  13,069
Satui                    3    -           0          267       -       -      -           -       268          -      12,056       -    12,056   12,326
Teluk Melano             0    -        -             -         -    11,800    -           -    11,800          -            1      -          1  11,801
Kuaro                 -       -        -             -         -       -      -           -       -            -      11,971          2 11,972   11,972
STS Karimun             38    -        -             -         -       -      -         1,195   1,195        8,726       -      1,452   10,178   11,411
Falabisahaya            77    -        -           9,591       -       -         0           0  9,591             1      -         -          1   9,669
Cilacap             1,713     -        -               69      -         63   256         -       389        7,328         26   1,143    8,497   10,599
Bitung              8,335   1,223        54          -         -         36     29        111     230             0    1,324       -     1,325   11,113
Panjang               994   5,900      330         1,113      205      933      53          84  2,718          204     1,597       286   2,086   11,698
Palembang             387   1,212      144         3,324       -     1,333      46          82  4,928            81    1,172         71  1,323    7,851
Ambon               7,373     298        49          -         -          0     27        119     195            54      -         -         54   7,920
Teluk Bayur         1,212     823    2,516           695      231      368      14          16  3,839            21    2,684       -     2,705    8,579
Cigading            4,403       36     213           107    2,423      253    -             13  3,009          149       -           37    186    7,634
P. Laut                 18    -        -           6,361       -       -      -             18  6,379            61      -         120     181    6,578
Tuban                 531     -        309         4,079       -         13      0        370   4,772        1,144       -         469   1,614    6,916
Tg. Pemancingan          1    -        -           5,894      444      -      -           -     6,338          -         -           48      48   6,387
Tarahan               276     -        -           5,951       -       -         6           5  5,961             1      -            8       9   6,246
Sei Putting           -       -        -           5,319       -         16   -           -     5,335          -         -         -       -      5,335
Batu Ampar          1,377     915        15          164         80       2   -         3,161   3,422            10      111         24    145    5,859
Muara Berau              3    -        -           4,895       -          5   -           -     4,900          -         -         -       -      4,903
Gresik                253       28       84          -           27  3,538      11        446   4,105          293       -         879   1,172    5,558
Sunda Kelapa          113     -      1,802           -         -     3,724       3           6  5,535             0      -            1       1   5,649
Lawi-Lawi             -       -        -             -         -       -      -           -       -          4,757       -           33  4,790    4,790
Balongan              223     -        -             -         -       -      -           -       -          3,691       -         757   4,448    4,671
Bintuni                 68       3   5,693           -         -       -         3           4  5,699          647       -           30    677    6,447
Kumai                   19      37        9          465      101        18      5        -       598          -       4,003       -     4,003    4,658
P. Sambu                 0    -        -                0      -       -      -           -         0             0      -            0       0       0
Tg. Batu                32    -        -           3,834       -       -      -              1  3,835             7      -            9      16   3,883
  Top 50 ports    163,933 165,165 24,310         421,542    7,319 44,699    6,350      80,796 585,017      101,922    69,574 22,122 193,618 1,107,733

All other ports    23,842      7,355    4,315     61,091    6,795     2,558     604    10,673    86,036     17,228    12,069    7,844    37,141    154,374

Total all ports   187,775 172,519 28,625 482,633 14,114              47,257    6,954   91,469   671,053   119,151     81,643   29,965   230,759   1,262,107
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text..




                                                                                                                                                      20
•      Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2020 (000’s tons)
                                                                    Dry Bulk                                             Liquid Bulk
                                                                                                                                 Other
                     General                                Iron                       Other               Petrol. &              Liq.
Port                  Cargo Container Cement      Coal      Ore Fertilizer     Grain Dry Bulk Subtotal     Products     CPO      Bulk Subtotal   Total
Samarinda               6,590   2,772     158     81,858         75    309        711       83 83,194             13         62     663     738   93,293
Tg. Priok             16,017 114,404    9,576      6,640      387      397      2,078   2,848 21,926          4,317        877    1,522   6,716  159,063
Tg. Perak             19,694   50,872     792      5,041      301    1,345      1,870  17,023 26,373          2,792     12,489    1,107  16,388  113,327
Bontang                   402       26      54    24,154       -     3,245           5    101 27,558         40,586          22   1,419  42,027   70,014
Pontianak             38,581    2,894   2,401     12,501       -    14,570          25       0 29,497             35     1,739        34  1,808   72,780
Tg. Bara                  409     -       -       50,904       -       239        -         40 51,184           -          -        217     217   51,809
Perawang              38,501    1,829       39     1,235       -          4          1 17,042 18,321              23          8       68      99  58,750
Taboneo                   698     -       -       44,543      453        25       -       -    45,022           -          -        194     194   45,915
Kendawangan                  0    -       -          -        565      -          -    45,008 45,573            -          -        -       -     45,573
Dumai                   9,223     -       509        516          3    661           5    121   1,815        14,407     16,821      822  32,049   43,088
Adang Bay                 -       -       -       31,202         60    162        -       -    31,423           -          -        294     294   31,717
Balikpapan              1,442   1,111       33    19,221       -       112          10    751 20,128          5,811        322    5,520  11,653   34,333
Belawan/ K Tanjung      5,105  25,910   2,221      2,584         33  1,161          80    460   6,539         1,411      9,864      323  11,598   49,153
Kota Baru                 736       14      65    22,985    1,646         4          1      10 24,711           394        234      186     814   26,274
Banjarmasin             1,262   3,441     286     20,908      328      445          11      16 21,994             10       109        13    132   26,830
Tg. Balai Karimun         683     -       -          306       -          3          0  3,482   3,791        20,400           5   2,029  22,434   26,908
Tg. Emas                1,097  16,776     212     11,967       -       273        232       93 12,776           107        402      192     701   31,350
Merak                   9,460   1,858     -        5,339       -       -          -       123   5,462           531          30   5,308   5,869   22,649
Tarakan                   510     505     -       17,024      149        25       -       214 17,412              55       -        -         55  18,483
Muara Pantai              -       -       -       17,883         90    -          -       -    17,972           -             2     -          2  17,974
Makassar                1,818   7,304     756      9,129         16    165      1,351       81 11,499             14       156        14    184   20,805
Muara Satui               -       -       -       13,682      290      -            26    -    13,998           -          -        -       -     13,998
Kuala Tungkal          10,569     655     -          -         -     4,547           3      20  4,571             33         13        6      52  15,847
Satui                        4    -          0       289       -       -          -       -       290           -       15,024      -    15,024   15,317
Teluk Melano                 0    -       -          -         -    14,466        -       -    14,466           -             2     -          2  14,467
Kuaro                     -       -       -          -         -       -          -       -       -             -       14,917         2 14,920   14,920
STS Karimun                 45    -       -          -         -       -          -     1,392   1,392        10,617        -      1,727  12,344   13,782
Falabisahaya                92    -       -       10,375       -       -             0       0 10,375              1       -        -          1  10,468
Cilacap                 2,044     -       -            75      -         78       278     -       431         8,916          32   1,360  10,308   12,782
Bitung                  9,944   1,825       70       -         -         44         32    130     276              0     1,650      -     1,651   13,696
Panjang                 1,186   8,800     431      1,204      257    1,144          57      98  3,191           248      1,990      340   2,578   15,754
Palembang                 462   1,808     188      3,596       -     1,634          50      95  5,563             99     1,460        84  1,643    9,475
Ambon                   8,797     444       64       -         -          0         29    138     232             65       -        -         65   9,539
Teluk Bayur             1,446   1,227   3,289        751      289      451          15      18  4,813             26     3,345      -     3,371   10,857
Cigading                5,254       54    279        116    3,036      310        -         15  3,756           181        -          43    225    9,288
P. Laut                     21    -       -        6,882       -       -          -         21  6,902             74       -        143     217    7,141
Tuban                     633     -       404      4,413       -         16          0    431   5,264         1,392        -        558   1,951    7,848
Tg. Pemancingan              1    -       -        6,376      557      -          -       -     6,933           -          -          57      57   6,990
Tarahan                   329     -       -        6,437       -       -             6       6  6,449              2       -           9      11   6,789
Sei Putting               -       -       -        5,754       -         20       -       -     5,774           -          -        -       -      5,774
Batu Ampar              1,643   1,365       20       177      100         2       -     3,682   3,981             12       138        29    179    7,167
Muara Berau                  4    -       -        5,295       -          6       -       -     5,302           -          -        -       -      5,305
Gresik                    302       41    110        -           33  4,337          12    520   5,011           356        -      1,045   1,402    6,757
Sunda Kelapa              135     -     2,355        -         -     4,565           4       7  6,930              0       -           2       2   7,067
Lawi-Lawi                 -       -       -          -         -       -          -       -       -           5,788        -          39  5,827    5,827
Balongan                  266     -       -          -         -       -          -       -       -           4,491        -        900   5,391    5,657
Bintuni                     81       4  7,440        -         -       -             3       5  7,448           787        -          35    823    8,356
Kumai                       23      55      12       503      126        22          6    -       669           -        4,989      -     4,989    5,736
P. Sambu                     0    -       -             0      -       -          -       -         0              0       -           0       0       0
Tg. Batu                    39    -       -        4,148       -       -          -          1  4,148              9       -          10      19   4,206
  Top 50 ports       195,596 246,323 31,772      456,014    9,171   54,796      6,901  94,106 652,760       124,004     86,702 26,315 237,022 1,331,700
All other ports       28,447   10,968    5,640    66,087    8,514     3,136      656    12,431    96,464     20,961     15,040    9,331    45,332    181,211

Total all ports    224,043 257,291 37,411 522,101 17,686             57,932    7,557   106,537   749,224   144,965     101,742   35,646   282,353   1,512,911
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text..




                                                                                                                                                     21
•      Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2030 (000’s tons)

                                                                    Dry Bulk                                              Liquid Bulk

                     General                                                           Other Dry             Petrol. &         Other Liq.
Port                  Cargo Container Cement      Coal Iron Ore Fertilizer Grain         Bulk     Subtotal   Products CPO        Bulk     Subtotal Total
Samarinda               8,622   5,146     267    100,849    108      443     825            106 102,599             19      91       893    1,003  117,371
Tg. Priok             20,959 212,399 16,179        8,181    558      569 2,412            3,646    31,545       6,390   1,298      2,050    9,738  274,641
Tg. Perak             25,770   94,447   1,339      6,211    435   1,928 2,170            21,791    33,873       4,133  18,486      1,492   24,111  178,202
Bontang                   526       48      90    29,757    -     4,653         5           129    34,635      60,077       33     1,912   62,022   97,231
Pontianak             50,482    5,374   4,057     15,401    -    20,887        29               0  40,374           52  2,574          46   2,672   98,902
Tg. Bara                  535     -       -       62,714    -        343     -                 52  63,108         -       -          292      292   63,935
Perawang              50,378    3,396       66     1,521    -            6      2        21,815    23,410           35      12         91     138   77,321
Taboneo                   914     -       -       54,877    654         36   -               -     55,568         -       -          262      262   56,743
Kendawangan                  0    -       -          -      816       -      -           57,614    58,430         -       -          -        -     58,430
Dumai                  12,068     -       861        636       4     947        6           155     2,608      21,325  24,900      1,107   47,332   62,008
Adang Bay                 -       -       -       38,440      87     232     -               -     38,758         -       -          396      396   39,154
Balikpapan              1,886   2,062       57    23,680    -        161       12           962    24,870       8,602     477      7,436   16,515   45,333
Belawan/ K Tanjung      6,680  48,104   3,752      3,184      48   1,664       93           589     9,330       2,089  14,601        435   17,125   81,239
Kota Baru                 962       26    109     28,318  2,376          6      1              13  30,824         583     347        250    1,180   32,992
Banjarmasin             1,651   6,389     484     25,759    474      638       12              21  27,386           15    161          18     194   35,621
Tg. Balai Karimun         894     -       -          376    -            5      0         4,457     4,838      30,197        7     2,733   32,937   38,670
Tg. Emas                1,436  31,146     357     14,743    -        391     269            119    15,879         158     594        259    1,011   49,473
Merak                  12,378   3,450     -        6,578    -         -      -              158     6,735         786       44     7,151    7,981   30,544
Tarakan                   667     938     -       20,974    215         35   -              274    21,498           82    -          -          82  23,186
Muara Pantai              -       -       -       22,031    129       -      -               -     22,161         -          2       -           2  22,163
Makassar                2,379  13,561   1,278     11,247      23     237 1,567              104    14,457           21    230          19     270   30,667
Muara Satui               -       -       -       16,857    419       -        30            -     17,305         -       -          -        -     17,305
Kuala Tungkal         13,829    1,217     -          -      -     6,519         4              26   6,548           48      20          8       76  21,670
Satui                        5    -          0       356    -         -      -               -        357         -    22,239        -     22,239   22,600
Teluk Melano                 0    -       -          -      -    20,737      -               -     20,737         -          3       -           3  20,740
Kuaro                     -       -       -          -      -         -      -               -        -           -    22,081           3  22,084   22,084
STS Karimun                 59    -       -          -      -         -      -            1,782     1,782      15,716     -        2,327   18,043   19,884
Falabisahaya              121     -       -       12,782    -         -         0               0  12,782            1    -          -           1  12,904
Cilacap                 2,674     -       -            92   -        111     323             -        526      13,198       48     1,831   15,078   18,278
Bitung                13,012    3,388     118        -      -           63     37           166       385            0  2,443        -      2,443   19,228
Panjang                 1,551  16,337     728      1,483    371   1,639        66           125     4,414         367   2,946        458    3,771   26,074
Palembang                 604   3,357     317      4,430    -     2,342        58           122     7,269         146   2,161        113    2,421   13,651
Ambon                 11,511      825     109        -      -            0     34           177       320           97    -          -          97  12,753
Teluk Bayur             1,892   2,277   5,556        926    417      646       18              23   7,587           38  4,951        -      4,989   16,745
Cigading                6,874     100     471        143  4,384      444     -                 19   5,461         268     -            59     327   12,763
P. Laut                     28    -       -        8,478    -         -      -                 27   8,505         110     -          193      303    8,835
Tuban                     828     -       683      5,437    -           23      0           552     6,694       2,061     -          752    2,813   10,335
Tg. Pemancingan              1    -       -        7,856    804       -      -               -      8,659         -       -            76       76   8,736
Tarahan                   431     -       -        7,931    -         -         7               7   7,945            2    -            12       15   8,391
Sei Putting               -       -       -        7,089    -           28   -               -      7,117         -       -          -        -      7,117
Batu Ampar              2,150   2,533       33       218    144          3   -            4,713     5,112           17    205          39     261   10,056
Muara Berau                  5    -       -        6,524    -            9   -               -      6,533         -       -          -        -      6,538
Gresik                    396       77    186        -        48  6,217        14           665     7,130         527     -        1,408    1,936    9,538
Sunda Kelapa              176     -     3,979        -      -     6,544         4               8  10,536            0    -             2        2  10,714
Lawi-Lawi                 -       -       -          -      -         -      -               -        -         8,568     -            53   8,621    8,621
Balongan                  348     -       -          -      -         -      -               -        -         6,648     -        1,213    7,861    8,208
Bintuni                   107        8 12,571        -      -         -         3               6  12,580       1,166     -            48   1,213   13,908
Kumai                       30    102       21       619    182         32      7            -        861         -     7,384        -      7,384    8,378
P. Sambu                     1    -       -        4,905    -         -      -               -      4,905         229     -            47     275    5,181
Tg. Batu                    51    -       -        5,110    -         -      -                  1   5,111           13    -            14       27   5,188
  Top 50 ports       255,934 457,317 53,682      566,710 13,243 78,554 8,009            120,463 840,660       183,785 128,340     35,495 347,620 1,901,532

All other ports       37,221    20,364   9,529    76,514   12,294     4,495     762      15,913   119,507     30,799    22,263    12,523    65,584    242,675

Total all ports    293,155 477,680 63,210 643,224 25,537             83,050    8,770    136,376   960,167    214,584   150,603    48,017   413,204   2,144,207
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text..




                                                                                                                                                     22
•     Indonesian Container Traffic under Alternative Growth Scenario, 2009-2030 (000’s TEU)
                    Low Growth                     Base Case                  High Growth
  Year    InternationalDomestic    Total InternationaDomestic Total InternationaDomestic Total
  2009          6.199    2.772      8.972      6.199   2.772   8.972      6.199     2.772  8.972
  2010          6.926    4.050     10.976      6.926   4.050 10.976       6.926     4.050 10.976
  2011          7.548    4.464     12.012      7.557   4.464 12.022       7.577     4.464 12.041
  2012          8.172    4.890     13.062      8.249   4.926 13.174       8.308     4.961 13.269
  2013          8.838    5.342     14.180      8.997    5.427   14.424     9.107    5.502   14.609
  2014          9.549    5.820     15.370      9.809    5.971   15.780     9.981    6.093   16.073
  2015         10.308    6.328     16.636     10.689    6.563   17.252    10.937    6.736   17.673
  2016         11.099    6.866     17.965     11.644    7.206   18.851    11.984    7.439   19.423
  2017         11.904    7.388     19.293     12.603    7.876   20.478    13.033    8.195   21.228
  2018         12.761    7.939     20.701     13.614    8.569   22.183    14.161    9.007   23.168
  2019         13.673    8.521     22.194     14.680    9.287   23.967    15.375    9.880   25.255
  2020         14.585    9.079     23.664     15.727   10.002   25.729    16.603   10.756   27.359
  2021         15.527    9.665     25.191     16.790   10.697   27.487    17.883   11.694   29.577
  2022         16.524   10.280     26.804     17.918   11.430   29.349    19.252   12.697   31.949
  2023         17.582   10.925     28.508     19.117   12.204   31.321    20.716   13.770   34.486
  2024         18.704   11.604     30.307     20.390   13.020   33.411    22.282   14.919   37.201
  2025         19.894   12.316     32.209     21.682   13.803   35.485    23.958   16.147   40.106
  2026         21.014   12.988     34.003     23.053   14.625   37.678    25.678   17.368   43.046
  2027         22.195   13.691     35.887     24.506   15.488   39.994    27.513   18.669   46.182
  2028         23.439   14.426     37.865     26.049   16.394   42.443    29.472   20.053   49.525
  2029         24.750   15.194     39.944     27.686   17.346   45.031    31.563   21.528   53.091
  2030         26.132   15.996     42.128     29.423   18.345   47.768    33.790   23.099   56.889

Average Annual Growth Rate
2009-15          8,8% 14,7%        10,8%        9,5%   15,4%    11,5%       9,9%   15,9%    12,0%
2015-20          7,2%       7,5%    7,3%        8,0%    8,8%     8,3%       8,7%    9,8%     9,1%
2020-30          6,0%       5,8%    5,9%        6,5%    6,3%     6,4%       7,4%    7,9%     7,6%
Source: Nathan Associates Inc.




                                                                                                     23
•   High Growth Scenario Forecast of Total Cargo Handled at Indonesian Ports, 2009-2030 (000’s tons)
                                      2009                               2015                             2020                               2030
                           Type of Trade                     Type of Trade                     Type of Trade                      Type of Trade
Type of cargo            Foreign Domestic        Total     Foreign Domestic       Total      Foreign Domestic       Total      Foreign Domestic          Total

General Cargo             32,840    110,859    143,699      40,369     152,858    193,226      46,799    190,488    237,287      59,906     268,703     328,609
Container                 61,000     27,223     88,222     109,370      67,360    176,730     166,030    107,560    273,590     337,900     230,990     568,890

Dry Bulk                 312,852    255,914    568,766     503,082     346,293    849,375     575,209    449,686   1,024,895    758,098     634,983 1,393,081
 Cement                      144     14,941     15,085       6,706      22,676     29,382       9,188     30,345      39,533     15,694      53,327    69,021
 Coal                    279,303    139,349    418,652     314,541     203,330    517,871     330,586    272,101     602,687    365,172     365,681   730,854
 Iron Ore                 10,531         91     10,623     151,783         400    152,184     198,375      1,000     199,375    323,131       2,479   325,611
 Fertilizer                5,162     30,665     35,828       7,532      41,095     48,627       9,845     52,448      62,293     16,036      85,433   101,468
 Grain                     3,832      2,343      6,175       4,444       2,717      7,161       4,907      3,000       7,907      5,981       3,657     9,638
 Other Dry Bulk           13,879     60,124     74,003      18,075      76,076     94,150      22,309     90,791     113,101     32,083     124,406   156,489
Liquid Bulk            136,723       39,349    176,072     184,105      55,769    239,873     231,466     74,563    306,029     360,024     121,407     481,430
  Petroleum & Products 91,110           385     91,495     122,097         516    122,612     152,155        643    152,797     236,291         998     237,290
  CPO                   22,438       38,485     60,923      31,829      54,592     86,421      42,594     73,057    115,651      69,381     119,002     188,383
  Other Liquid Bulk     23,175          479     23,654      30,179         661     30,840      36,718        863     37,581      54,352       1,406      55,758

Total                    543,415    433,346    976,761     836,925     622,280   1,459,205   1,019,504   822,298   1,841,802   1,515,928   1,256,082   2,772,010

Average annual growth rate (%)
General Cargo             -              -          -           3.5        5.5         5.1         3.0       4.5         4.2         2.5         3.5         3.3
Container                 -              -          -          10.2       16.3        12.3         8.7       9.8         9.1         7.4         7.9         7.6

Dry Bulk                     -           -          -           8.2        5.2         6.9         2.7       5.4         3.8         2.8         3.5         3.1
 Cement                      -           -          -          89.7        7.2        11.8         6.5       6.0         6.1         5.5         5.8         5.7
 Coal                        -           -          -           2.0        6.5         3.6         1.0       6.0         3.1         1.0         3.0         1.9
 Iron Ore                    -           -          -          56.0       27.9        55.8         5.5      20.1         5.6         5.0         9.5         5.0
 Fertilizer                  -           -          -           6.5        5.0         5.2         5.5       5.0         5.1         5.0         5.0         5.0
 Grain                       -           -          -           2.5        2.5         2.5         2.0       2.0         2.0         2.0         2.0         2.0
 Other Dry Bulk              -           -          -           4.5        4.0         4.1         4.3       3.6         3.7         3.7         3.2         3.3

Liquid Bulk                  -           -          -
  Petroleum & Products       -           -          -           5.0        5.0         5.0         4.5       4.5         4.5         4.5         4.5         4.5
  CPO                        -           -          -           6.0        6.0         6.0         6.0       6.0         6.0         5.0         5.0         5.0
  Other Liquid Bulk          -           -          -           4.5        5.5         4.5         4.0       5.5         4.0         4.0         5.0         4.0

Total                      -           -          -              7.5       6.2         6.9         4.0       5.7         4.8         4.0         4.3         4.2
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.




                                                                                                                                                           24
•         Low Growth Scenario Forecast of Total Cargo Handled at Indonesian Ports, 2009-2030 (000’s tons)
                                      2009                                2015                                 2020                            2030
                            Type of Trade                    Type of Trade                         Type of Trade                     Type of Trade
Type of cargo             Foreign Domestic       Total     Foreign Domestic           Total      Foreign Domestic       Total      Foreign Domestic       Total

General Cargo              32,840   110,859    143,699      36,983      140,272       177,256     40,434     166,600    207,033     46,009    203,084    249,092
Container                  61,000    27,223     88,222     103,080       63,280       166,360    145,850      90,790    236,640    261,320    159,960    421,280

Dry Bulk                  312,852   255,914    568,766     289,314      314,218       603,532    261,307     385,699    647,005    217,576    545,654    763,230
 Cement                       144    14,941     15,085         182       19,458        19,640        227      24,248     24,475        352     37,656     38,008
 Coal                     279,303   139,349    418,652     247,419      181,468       428,887    212,467     231,605    444,072    156,678    342,832    499,510
 Iron Ore                  10,531        91     10,623      13,714          123        13,837     16,288         156     16,445     19,855        267     20,123
 Fertilizer                 5,162    30,665     35,828       6,723       38,802        45,524      8,101      46,084     54,185     11,427     63,146     74,573
 Grain                      3,832     2,343      6,175       4,215        2,577         6,792      4,541       2,776      7,317      5,270      3,222      8,492
 Other Dry Bulk            13,879    60,124     74,003      17,061       71,791        88,852     19,683      80,829    100,512     23,993     98,530    122,524
Liquid Bulk            136,723       39,349    176,072     172,491       50,354       222,846    206,052      59,813    265,866    284,072     80,423    364,496
  Petroleum & Products 91,110           385     91,495     115,284          487       115,771    138,917         587    139,504    195,956        828    196,784
  CPO                   22,438       38,485     60,923      28,720       49,261        77,981     34,111      58,507     92,617     45,842     78,628    124,470
  Other Liquid Bulk     23,175          479     23,654      28,488          606        29,094     33,025         720     33,745     42,275        968     43,242

Total                     543,415   433,346    976,761     601,869      568,125      1,169,994   653,643     702,902   1,356,544   808,977    989,121   1,798,098

Average annual growth rate (%)
General Cargo             -              -          -           2.0            4.0         3.6       1.8         3.5         3.2       1.3        2.0         1.9
Container                 -              -          -           9.1           15.1        11.2       7.2         7.5         7.3       6.0        5.8         5.9

Dry Bulk                      -          -          -          (1.3)           3.5         1.0       (2.0)       4.2         1.4      (1.8)       3.5         1.7
 Cement                       -          -          -           4.0            4.5         4.5        4.5        4.5         4.5       4.5        4.5         4.5
 Coal                         -          -          -          (2.0)           4.5         0.4       (3.0)       5.0         0.7      (3.0)       4.0         1.2
 Iron Ore                     -          -          -           4.5            5.0         4.5        3.5        5.0         3.5       2.0        5.5         2.0
 Fertilizer                   -          -          -           4.5            4.0         4.0        3.8        3.5         3.5       3.5        3.2         3.2
 Grain                        -          -          -           1.6            1.6         1.6        1.5        1.5         1.5       1.5        1.5         1.5
 Other Dry Bulk               -          -          -           3.5            3.0         3.1        2.9        2.4         2.5       2.0        2.0         2.0

Liquid Bulk                   -          -          -
  Petroleum & Products        -          -          -           4.0            4.0         4.0       3.8         3.8         3.8       3.5        3.5         3.5
  CPO                         -          -          -           4.2            4.2         4.2       3.5         3.5         3.5       3.0        3.0         3.0
  Other Liquid Bulk           -          -          -           3.5            4.0         3.5       3.0         3.5         3.0       2.5        3.0         2.5

Total                      -           -          -              1.7           4.6         3.1       1.7         4.3         3.0       2.2        3.5         2.9
Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.




        •         Forecast of Indonesian Total Container Traffic under Alternative Growth Scenarios, 2015-2030 (000’s
                  TEU)


                 60,000                                                                                         Low Growth
    000's TEUs




                                                                                                                Base Case
                 50,000
                                                                                                                High Growth

                 40,000


                 30,000


                 20,000


                 10,000


                     -
                             2015               2020                   2025             2030
                                                                                              Year




                                                                                                                                                                    25
•          Forecast of Total Indonesian Port Traffic by Cargo Type Under Alternative Growth Scenarios, 2015-
              2030 (000’s tons)

             3,000,000                                                     Dry Bulk
000's tons




                                                                           Liquid Bulk
             2,500,000
                                                                           Container

             2,000,000                                                     General Cargo


             1,500,000

             1,000,000

              500,000

                    -
                         Low Base High   Low Base High   Low Base High

                               2015            2020          2030

                                                                    Year




                                                                                                            26
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final
Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final

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Ind ii pointers of draft npmp 2011-08-09 final

  • 1. 12/07/2011 DRAFT MOT MINISTER REGULATION ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN (NPMP) 9 AUGUST 2011
  • 2. Disclaimer This document is being finalized by DGST (MOT) in cooperation with IndII. It mostly refers to previous IndII support on development of NPMP since July 2009 (under phase 1, 2 and 3). This document is still in the form of preliminary draft, which need further discussions and consultations with various stakeholders. It is planned that by November 2011 the Final Draft MOT Regulation on NPMP can be issued. NPMP Consultant Team
  • 3. DRAFT MOT MINISTER REGULATION ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN (NPMP) CONSIDERING THAT: a. Article 71, Shipping Law No. 17 the year of 2008 and Article 7, 8, and 9 of Government Regulation No 61, the year of 2009 regarding Ports provide that NPMP shall be formulated b. Based on Article 71 Para (4) of the Shipping Law, NPMP shall be decided by the Minister c. Taking into consideration to the statements as described in a and b above, the NPMP is needed to be stipulated in Minister of Transport Regulation REFERRING TO: 1. Shipping Law No. 17 the year of 2008 2. Government Regulation No. 61 the year of 2009 regarding Ports 3. President Regulation No 47 the Year of 2009 regarding Establishment and Organization of State Ministers 4. Minister of Transport Regulation No KM 43 the Year of 2005 regarding Organization, and Working Arrangement of the Ministry of Transport as amended with Minister of Transport Regulation No 20 the year of 2008 Has decided to stipulate: Minister of Transport Regulation regarding NMPM Article 1 NPMP containing National Port Policy and Port Location Plan and Port Hierarchy is an integrated part of National Port System Article 2 NPMP provides guidance for stipulating port location, construction, operation and development, and arrangement of a Port Master Plan The NPMP is developed with consideration of: • National Spatial Plan, Provincial Spatial Plan, and Local Spatial Plan • Potential for regional economic and socio economic development • Potential for natural resource development • Development of the strategic environment, either domestic or international Article 3 The NPMP is stipulated for a period of 20 years and should be reviewed and updated every 5 (five) years
  • 4. If there is a change in the strategic environment, the NPMP may be reviewed more than once every years Revision of the NPMP may be made based on the 5 (five) years evaluation The contain of NPMP is elaborated as described in the Attachment Article 4 Director General of Sea Transport shall supervise and take further action needed to implement the NPMP Article 5 This Regulation shall take into effect as the date of enactment. To promulgate this law to the public, it is hereby ordered to announce the enactment of this Minister of Transport Regulation by placing it in the State Gazette of the Republic Indonesia Stipulated in Jakarta on the dated of ...... 2011 Minister of Transport Freddy Numberi
  • 5. LAMPIRAN : PERMENHUB NO.___ NOPEMBER 2011 PERATURAN MENTERI PERHUBUNGAN TENTANG : RENCANA INDUK PELABUHAN NASIONAL DRAFT ATTACHMENT: REGULATION OF MOT MINISTER ON A NATIONAL PORT MASTER PLAN 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Vision of National Port Master Plan The vision is to create a strong economic base that provides port planning and development, in particular as regards with connecting reinventing of port management in Indonesia including empowering port authorities competencies, clear direction and strengthen the main economic drivers and diversify into new sectors /main commodities, inclusive connect more developed regions to lagging regions and achieve sustainable development and targeted economic and social development measures. 1.2.Target 2030 The 2030 vision encompasses “. . . a national port system that will contribute to consistently reducing international and domestic transport costs” by: – Being able to accommodate the ships that will provide the lowest sea- freight costs – Serving ships promptly and effectively without causing undue delay – Ensuring high levels of cargo handling productivity – Optimizing the cost of port service delivery” By 2030, 16 of Indonesia’s main container ports will need to provide additional capacity. This includes accommodation for 9.4 million TEU at Tanjung Priok, 4.3 million TEU at Tanjung Perak, 1.9 million TEU at Belawan/Kuala Tanjung and 0.9 million TEU at Makassar. The estimated total direct investment in port facilities for these elements of port traffic is US$ 19.2 billion, 60 percent is needed for container traffic, 18 percent for petroleum and petroleum products, 13 percent for coal, and 9 percent for CPO. It is estimated that about 70-75 percent of the investment in new Indonesian container terminals could be provided by the private sector under long-term concession arrangements. The remaining 25-30 percent of the investment for common port infrastructure such as channel deepening and breakwaters will need to be provided by the public sector. • Port performance target
  • 6. 2. PRESENT/CURRENT PORT CONDITIONS 2.1. Policy Framework Indonesian laws and regulations influence to the port management in Indonesia as a National Policy: • Shipping Law No. 17/2008 and GR 61/2009 • Masterplan of acceleration and expansion of Indonesia economic development/ Indonesia economic corridor (MP3EI) • National Transportation System (SISTRANAS) • Blueprint of Intermodal/Multimodal Transport KM 15/2010 • Blueprint National Logistics System (Draft) • National Spatial Plan Act No. 26/2008 • Economic Zone of Industries (KEK) Act. No. 39/2009 • Investment of Capital Act. No. 25/2007 • Fairness of Competition Act. No. 5/1999 • Regional Government Act. No. 32/2004 • National Development Planning (RPJM, RPJP) • Presidential Regulation No. 67/2005 and 13/2010 (PPP) • International Conventions related to port affair 2.2. Port Traffic, Facilities and Operations • In 2009, a total of 968.4 million tons were handled at Indonesian ports, consisting of 560.4 million tons of dry bulk cargo (nearly three-quarters of which was coal), 176.1 million tons of liquid bulk cargo (86 percent of which was petroleum and petroleum products or CPO), 143.7 million tons of general cargo and 88.2 million tons of containerized cargo. • Foreign trade accounted for 543.4 million tons or 56 percent of the total volume of cargo handled at Indonesian ports in 2009. Export shipments at 442.5 million tons accounted for more than 80 percent of the foreign trade, while imports of 101.0 million tons accounted for 20 percent of the foreign trade. The export figures are higher due to the substantial volume of coal exports of 278.6 million tons in 2009. • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type (000’s tons) - 2009
  • 7. 600,000 000's tons 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - General Container Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Cargo Loading 55,430 13,610 123,771 19,675 Unloading 55,430 13,613 123,743 19,675 Export 14,212 30,342 303,133 94,769 Import 18,628 30,658 9,719 41,954 • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons) 180,000 000's tons 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - General Cargo Container Cargo Liquid Bulk 1999 70,966 27,692 148,644 2009 143,699 88,222 176,072 600,000 000's tons 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 1999 2009 Dry Bulk 95,176 560,366
  • 8. Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s tons) • Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type, 2009 (000’s tons)
  • 9. Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons) Trade flow AAGR and cargo type 1999 2009 1999-2009 IMPORTS General cargo 11,777 18,628 4.7% Container cargo 6,755 30,658 16.3% Dry Bulk 12,281 9,719 -2.3% Liquid Bulk 17,327 41,954 9.2% Subtotal 48,140 100,958 7.7% EXPORTS General cargo 16,635 14,212 -1.6% Container cargo 8,568 30,342 13.5% Dry Bulk 41,511 303,133 22.0% Liquid Bulk 38,535 94,769 9.4% Subtotal 105,249 442,457 15.4% DOMESTIC UNLOADING General cargo 25,018 55,430 8.3% Container cargo 5,844 13,613 8.8% Dry Bulk 26,885 123,743 16.5% Liquid Bulk 45,448 19,675 -8.0% Subtotal 103,195 212,460 7.5% DOMESTIC LOADING General cargo 17,535 55,430 12.2% Container cargo 6,525 13,610 7.6% Dry Bulk 14,499 123,771 23.9% Liquid Bulk 47,334 19,675 -8.4% Subtotal 85,893 212,485 9.5% TOTAL General cargo 70,966 143,699 7.3% Container cargo 27,692 88,222 12.3% Dry Bulk 95,176 560,366 19.4% Liquid Bulk 148,644 176,072 1.7% Total 342,477 968,361 11.0% Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST and Pelindio data.
  • 10. Indonesian General Cargo and Container Traffic by Trade Flow, 1999 and 2009 (000’s tons) Foreign Trade Domestic Trade Type of cargo Imports Exports Subtotal Unloading Loading Subtotal Total 1999 General Cargo 11,777 16,635 28,412 25,018 17,535 42,553 70,966 Container 6,755 8,568 15,323 5,844 6,525 12,368 27,692 Total 18,532 25,203 43,735 30,862 24,059 54,922 98,657 % Containerized 36.5% 34.0% 35.0% 18.9% 27.1% 22.5% 28.1% 2009 General Cargo 18,628 14,212 32,840 55,430 55,430 110,859 143,699 Container 30,658 30,342 61,000 13,613 13,610 27,223 88,222 Total 49,286 44,554 93,840 69,042 69,040 138,082 231,922 % Containerized 62.2% 68.1% 65.0% 19.7% 19.7% 19.7% 38.0% Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST and Pelindio data. • Indonesian Port Traffic by Trade Flow and Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2009 (000’s tons) Foreign Trade Domestic Trade Type of cargo Imports Exports Subtotal Unloading Loading Subtotal Total General Cargo 18,628 14,212 32,840 55,430 55,430 110,859 143,699 Container 30,658 30,342 61,000 13,613 13,610 27,223 88,222 Dry Bulk 9,719 303,133 312,852 123,743 123,771 247,514 560,366 Cement - 144 144 7,459 7,483 14,941 15,085 Coal 685 278,618 279,303 69,674 69,674 139,349 418,652 Iron Ore 1,862 8,669 10,531 46 46 91 10,623 Fertilizer 3,360 1,802 5,162 15,331 15,334 30,665 35,828 Grain 3,469 363 3,832 1,172 1,172 2,343 6,175 Other Dry Bulk 343 13,537 13,879 30,062 30,062 60,124 74,003 Liquid Bulk 41,954 94,769 136,723 19,675 19,675 39,349 176,072 Petroleum & Products 31,801 59,309 91,110 192 192 385 91,495 CPO 269 22,169 22,438 19,243 19,243 38,485 60,923 Other Liquid Bulk 9,884 13,291 23,175 240 240 479 23,654 Total 100,958 442,457 543,415 212,460 212,485 424,946 968,361 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST shipping data.
  • 11. Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s tons) Foreign Trade Domestic Trade Port Imports Exports Subtotal UnloadingLoading Subtotal Total Samarinda 260 52,875 53,135 6,193 12,911 19,104 72,239 Tg. Priok 23,060 20,930 43,990 10,840 12,272 23,112 67,101 Tg. Perak 13,410 7,243 20,653 18,856 19,269 38,125 58,778 Bontang 678 46,764 47,442 300 566 866 48,308 Pontianak 52 250 302 13,175 33,371 46,546 46,847 Tg. Bara 221 41,179 41,400 - - - 41,400 Perawang 113 534 647 29,443 8,142 37,586 38,233 Taboneo 103 36,043 36,146 213 224 437 36,582 Kendawangan - 340 340 15,632 15,632 31,263 31,603 Dumai 857 18,604 19,461 6,415 868 7,283 26,744 Adang Bay 72 25,278 25,350 - - - 25,350 Balikpapan 3,155 18,859 22,013 2,613 228 2,841 24,854 Belawan 5,602 7,576 13,178 5,183 2,120 7,303 20,480 Kota Baru 441 18,434 18,876 165 1,404 1,569 20,445 Banjarmasin 143 11,658 11,800 6,632 1,011 7,642 19,443 Tg. Balai Karimun 5,988 11,337 17,326 - 3 3 17,329 Tg. Emas 3,572 2,709 6,282 3,594 7,120 10,714 16,995 Merak 3,630 1,427 5,058 1,997 7,892 9,889 14,947 Tarakan - 6,468 6,468 3,900 4,072 7,972 14,440 Muara Pantai - 14,394 14,394 - - - 14,394 Makassar 964 381 1,345 7,197 4,138 11,335 12,680 Muara Satui 58 7,876 7,934 1,612 1,621 3,232 11,167 Kuala Tungkal 47 272 319 188 9,358 9,546 9,865 Satui - 246 246 38 8,947 8,985 9,231 Teluk Melano - - - 8,947 - 8,947 8,947 Kuaro - - - 8,934 - 8,934 8,934 STS Karimun 4,420 4,423 8,843 - - - 8,843 Falabisahaya - - - 8,350 29 8,379 8,379 Cilacap 6,344 1,787 8,131 26 38 64 8,195 Bitung 22 865 887 3,537 3,741 7,277 8,164 Panjang 2,198 3,086 5,283 1,634 550 2,184 7,467 Palembang 286 1,636 1,922 1,700 2,363 4,063 5,985 Ambon 0 157 157 2,901 2,924 5,825 5,982 Teluk Bayur 156 3,331 3,487 988 1,298 2,287 5,773 Cigading 4,706 670 5,376 74 312 386 5,762 P. Laut 72 5,616 5,688 - - - 5,688 Tuban 83 1,580 1,663 371 3,632 4,003 5,666 Tg. Pemancingan 50 5,387 5,437 0 48 49 5,485 Tarahan 140 3,997 4,137 670 581 1,252 5,389 Sei Putting - - - 2,358 2,268 4,626 4,626 Batu Ampar 523 3,868 4,391 4 5 9 4,400 Muara Berau 4 3,487 3,491 3 759 761 4,252 Gresik 2,448 626 3,074 529 640 1,169 4,244 Sunda Kelapa - - - 2,708 1,160 3,868 3,868 Lawi-Lawi 3,494 186 3,679 - - - 3,679 Balongan 3,122 476 3,597 3 2 5 3,602 Bintuni 7 520 527 3,020 33 3,053 3,580 Kumai 34 248 282 579 2,663 3,241 3,523 Tg. Batu 16 189 205 523 2,636 3,159 3,364 P. Sambu 96 22 118 2,867 328 3,195 3,313 Top 50 ports 90,646 394,089 484,735 185,001 177,232 362,233 846,968 All other ports 10,312 48,368 58,680 27,459 35,253 62,713 121,392 Total all ports 100,958 442,457 543,415 212,460 212,485 424,946 968,361 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
  • 12. Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2009 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Other Other General Dry Petrol. & Liq. Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Iron Ore Fertilizer Grain Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal Total Samarinda 4,227 950 64 65,639 45 191 581 58 66,577 8 37 440 485 72,239 Tg. Priok 10,273 39,228 3,861 5,325 232 246 1,698 1,978 13,340 2,725 525 1,010 4,260 67,101 Tg. Perak 12,632 17,443 319 4,042 181 832 1,528 11,824 18,727 1,762 7,478 735 9,975 58,778 Bontang 258 9 22 19,368 - 2,007 4 70 21,471 25,616 13 942 26,571 48,308 Pontianak 24,745 992 968 10,024 - 9,011 21 0 20,023 22 1,041 23 1,086 46,847 Tg. Bara 262 - - 40,818 - 148 - 28 40,994 - - 144 144 41,400 Perawang 24,694 627 16 990 - 3 1 11,837 12,847 15 5 45 64 38,233 Taboneo 448 - - 35,718 272 16 - - 36,005 - - 129 129 36,582 Kendawangan 0 - - - 340 - - 31,263 31,603 - - - - 31,603 Dumai 5,916 - 205 414 2 408 4 84 1,118 9,093 10,073 545 19,711 26,744 Adang Bay - - - 25,019 36 100 - - 25,155 - - 195 195 25,350 Balikpapan 925 381 14 15,412 - 69 8 522 16,025 3,668 193 3,663 7,524 24,854 Belawan 2,486 8,884 876 2,033 20 704 65 316 4,015 776 4,106 213 5,096 20,480 Kota Baru 472 5 26 18,431 989 2 1 7 19,456 249 140 123 512 20,445 Banjarmasin 809 1,180 115 16,765 197 275 9 11 17,373 7 65 9 81 19,443 Tg. Balai Karimun 438 - - 245 - 2 0 2,418 2,666 12,876 3 1,346 14,225 17,329 Tg. Emas 704 5,752 85 9,596 - 169 189 64 10,104 67 240 128 435 16,995 Merak 6,067 637 - 4,281 - - - 86 4,367 335 18 3,523 3,875 14,947 Tarakan 327 173 - 13,651 90 15 - 148 13,905 35 - - 35 14,440 Muara Pantai - - - 14,339 54 - - - 14,393 - 1 - 1 14,394 Makassar 1,166 2,505 305 7,320 10 102 1,104 57 8,897 9 93 9 112 12,680 Muara Satui - - - 10,971 174 - 21 - 11,167 - - - - 11,167 Kuala Tungkal 6,779 225 - - - 2,812 3 14 2,829 21 8 4 33 9,865 Satui 2 - 0 232 - - - - 232 - 8,996 - 8,996 9,231 Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 8,946 - - 8,946 - 1 - 1 8,947 Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 8,933 1 8,934 8,934 STS Karimun 29 - - - - - - 967 967 6,701 - 1,146 7,847 8,843 Falabisahaya 59 - - 8,319 - - 0 0 8,320 0 - - 0 8,379 Cilacap 1,311 - - 60 - 48 227 - 335 5,627 19 902 6,549 8,195 Bitung 6,378 626 28 - - 27 26 90 172 0 988 - 988 8,164 Panjang 760 3,017 174 965 155 707 47 68 2,116 156 1,192 226 1,574 7,467 Palembang 296 620 76 2,883 - 1,011 41 66 4,076 62 874 56 992 5,985 Ambon 5,642 152 26 - - 0 24 96 146 41 - - 41 5,982 Teluk Bayur 927 421 1,326 603 174 279 12 13 2,406 16 2,003 - 2,019 5,773 Cigading 3,370 18 112 93 1,824 191 - 10 2,231 114 - 29 143 5,762 P. Laut 14 - - 5,518 - - - 14 5,533 47 - 95 142 5,688 Tuban 406 - 163 3,539 - 10 0 299 4,011 879 - 370 1,249 5,666 Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 5,113 334 - - - 5,447 - - 38 38 5,485 Tarahan 211 - - 5,162 - - 5 4 5,171 1 - 6 7 5,389 Sei Putting - - - 4,614 - 12 - - 4,626 - - - - 4,626 Batu Ampar 1,054 468 8 142 60 2 - 2,558 2,769 7 83 19 109 4,400 Muara Berau 2 - - 4,246 - 4 - - 4,250 - - - - 4,252 Gresik 194 14 44 - 20 2,682 10 361 3,117 225 - 694 919 4,244 Sunda Kelapa 86 - 950 - - 2,823 3 5 3,780 0 - 1 1 3,868 Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 3,653 - 26 3,679 3,679 Balongan 171 - - - - - - - - 2,834 - 598 3,432 3,602 Bintuni 52 1 3,000 - - - 2 3 3,006 497 - 23 520 3,580 Kumai 15 19 5 403 76 14 5 - 502 - 2,987 - 2,987 3,523 Tg. Batu 25 - - 3,326 - - - 1 3,326 6 - 7 12 3,364 P. Sambu 1 - - 3,192 - - - - 97 - 23 3,313 Top 50 ports 124,666 84,462 12,792 368,813 5,509 33,874 5,639 65,365 488,799 - 78,249 50,117 17,484 145,729 846,968 All other ports 19,034 3,761 2,294 49,839 5,114 1,953 536 8,638 71,567 13,246 10,807 6,170 30,343 121,392 Total all ports 143,699 88,222 15,085 418,652 10,623 35,828 6,175 74,003 560,366 91,495 60,923 23,654 176,072 968,361 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
  • 13. Indonesian Top 50 Ports for Container Traffic by Trade Flow, 2009 (000’s TEU) Foreign Trade Domestic Trade Port Imports Exports Subtotal Unloading Loading Subtotal Total Tg. Priok 1,605 1,485 3,090 328 505 833 3,923 Tg. Perak 630 576 1,206 256 282 539 1,744 Belawan 302 309 610 180 98 278 888 Tg. Emas 291 253 543 17 15 32 575 Panjang 137 139 277 14 11 25 302 Makassar 2 - 2 144 104 249 250 Banjarmasin - - - 61 57 118 118 Pontianak - - - 70 29 99 99 Samarinda 0 - 0 50 45 95 95 Pekanbaru 11 32 44 16 13 30 73 Merak 25 36 61 1 1 3 64 Perawang 1 53 54 4 5 9 63 Bitung - - - 27 36 63 63 Palembang 16 16 33 14 15 29 62 Batu Ampar 18 29 47 - - - 47 Teluk Bayur - - - 20 22 42 42 Balikpapan 1 2 3 19 16 35 38 Batam 1 3 4 15 11 26 30 Jayapura - - - 12 15 28 28 Buatan 2 26 27 - - - 27 Kabil 12 15 27 0 0 0 27 Kuala Tungkal 0 22 22 - - - 22 Sorong - - - 13 9 22 22 Tarakan - - - 9 8 17 17 Ambon - - - 7 8 15 15 Batu Licin - - - 7 7 14 14 Bau-Bau - - - 7 4 11 11 Biak - - - 7 3 10 10 Merauke - - - 6 4 10 10 P. Burung - 10 10 - - - 10 Talang Duku 4 5 9 - - - 9 Palu - - - 5 4 9 9 Timika - - - 5 4 9 9 Kendari - - - 6 3 9 9 S. Guntung - 8 8 - - - 8 Fak-Fak - - - 4 3 7 7 Manokwari - - - 4 3 7 7 Nabire - - - 4 3 6 6 Benoa - - - 3 3 6 6 Benete 2 3 5 - - - 5 Jambi 2 2 5 - - - 5 Muntok 2 2 4 - - - 4 Sampit - - - 2 2 4 4 S. Buatan 0 3 4 - - - 4 Pantoloan - - - 2 1 3 3 Pangkal Balam 1 1 3 0 - 0 3 Malili - - - 1 1 2 2 Tg. Pandan - - - 1 1 2 2 Kumai - - - 1 1 2 2 Luwuk - - - 1 0 2 2 Top 50 ports 3,064 3,031 6,095 1,347 1,354 2,700 8,796 All other ports 1 3 5 14 7 22 26 Total all ports 3,066 3,034 6,100 1,361 1,361 2,722 8,822 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST Shipping Database, 2009.
  • 14. Indonesian Main Ports for Containers, Selected Years, 1990-2009 (TEU) Avergae annual growth rate (%) Port 1990 2000 2008 2009 1990-2009 1990-2000 2000-2009 2000-2008 Tanjung Priok 643,582 2,494,606 3,973,661 3,799,411 9.8 14.5 4.8 5.8 Tanjung Perak 198,135 915,000 2,213,477 1,744,300 12.1 16.5 7.4 12.3 Belawan 82,585 311,089 590,069 888,400 13.3 14.2 12.4 6.4 Tanjung Emas 37,361 262,697 468,177 576,100 15.5 21.5 9.1 7.3 Makasar 6,457 164,684 362,452 463,818 25.2 38.2 12.2 9.3 Banjarmasin 2,766 142,958 258,034 284,282 27.6 48.4 7.9 11.3 Samarinda - 68,685 167,387 266,438 - - 16.3 11.8 Pontianak 847 93,098 132,732 133,419 30.5 60.0 4.1 3.5 Panjang 19,386 76,090 106,935 104,175 9.3 14.7 3.6 4.3 Palembang 8,300 45,657 78,469 84,403 13.0 18.6 7.1 7.8 Bitung 134 66,737 105,405 61,914 38.1 86.1 (0.8) 5.9 Pekanbaru - 14,236 50,548 57,612 - - 16.8 (10.0) Balikpapan 754 22,401 70,952 52,844 25.1 40.4 10.0 10.1 Jambi - 36,655 54,276 52,086 - - 4.0 5.8 Teluk Bayur - 12,383 48,503 47,633 - - 16.1 16.0 Batam a/ 133,345 125,000 104,200 - - (2.7) (0.9) Jayapura - 264 30,405 25,592 - - 66.2 72.0 Sorong - 2,163 18,832 24,110 - - 30.7 23.3 Subtotal 1,000,307 4,860,585 8,836,482 8,746,627 12.1 17.1 6.7 7.4 Other ports - 67,915 45,984 224,911 - - 14.2 (4.7) Total 1,000,307 4,928,500 8,882,466 8,971,538 12.2 17.3 6.9 7.3 a/Batam includes Batu Ampar and Kabil. Source: Compiled by Nathan Associates Inc. from DGST, Pelindo II and other data. • Indonesian Main Ports for Containers, Selected Years, 1990-2009 (TEU) 14
  • 15. Domestic and International Container Traffic at All Indonesian Ports, 1990-2009 (TEU) 9,000,000 TEUs 8,000,000 International 7,000,000 Domestic 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year • Resume of port facilities in Indonesian • Resume of port performance 2009/2010 3. NATIONAL PORT POLICY • Greater participation of private sector, fair competition in providing maritime transport services (including port services), regional government autonomy, accountability of government institution governance, and greater concern for maritime safety and security and environmental preservation for the sake of national interest. • As node of transportation network, gateway for economic activities, interfaces of multimodal transport, promoting industry and trading activities, cargo consolidation centre, promoting “wawasan nusantara” • Separation of regulator and operator functions (reflected by establishing of PA/PMU and Port Business Entity) • PA/PMU shall be landlord authority and shall be clearly reflected in the establishment of PA/PMU • PA shall have a certain degree of autonomy in organizing commercial port • Increasing PSP under fair competition environment • PSP could be in term of PPP through concession agreement or other form of cooperation with PA/PMU • Restructure the status of Pelindo versus the role of PA landlord organizations and as regulators • Clear guidelines on the formulation of operational regulations by PA/PMU • The Ministry develops port policies related to: o Planning and development of basic infrastructure including port entrances, lighthouses, aid to navigation, port basin, and breakwater o Planning and development of ports (location, function, type of management o Planning and development of port hinterland connection • Procedure of new port development (Greenfield) and new public terminal shall be clearly formulated 15
  • 16. 4. FUTURE PORT DEVELOPMENT 4.1. Strategic Environment • Preparing the port traffic forecast, with representatives of other economic, spatial and logistical planning efforts currently being implemented in Indonesia. These include: • Masterplan of Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025 (MP3EI) • National Transportation System (SISTRANAS) • Blueprint of Intermodal/Multimodal Transport and National Logistics System • Strategic Plan of National Transportation Development • The MP3EI directive is aimed at implementing the 2005 to 2025 Long-term National Development Plan, which is stated in the Law No. 17 Year 2007, the vision of the acceleration and expansion of Indonesia’s economic development is to create a self-sufficient, advanced, just, and prosperous Indonesia. By utilizing the MP3EI, Indonesia aims to earn its place as one of the world’s developed countries by 2025 with expected per capita income of US$ 14,250-US$ 15,500 with total GDP of US$ 4.0-4.5 trillion. To achieve the above objectives, real annual economic growth of 6.4-7.5 percent is expected for the period of 2011 to 2014. This economic growth is expected to coincide with the decrease in the rate of inflation from 6.5 percent in 2011 to 2014 to 3.0 percent in 2025 . • The 2025’s vision is achieved by focusing on three main goals: • Increase value adding and expanding value chain for industrial production processes, and increase the efficiency of the distribution network. In addition increase the capability of industry to access and utilize natural resources and human resources. These increases can be attained by the creation of economic activities within regions as well as among regional centers of economic growth. • Encourage efficiency in production and improve marketing efforts to further integrate domestic markets in order to push for competitiveness and strengthen the national economy. • To push for the strengthening of the national innovation system in the areas of production, process, and marketing with a focus on the overall strengthening of sustainable global competitiveness towards an innovation-driven economy. • Acceleration and expansion of Indonesia’s economic development are based on the development of existing and creation of new growth centers. This development strategy is essentially an integration of the sectoral and regional development approaches. The purpose of developing new growth centers is to optimize agglomeration advantages, to exploit regional strengths, and to reduce spatial imbalance of economic development throughout the country. As part of this strategy, each region will develop their own specific local products. • The development of economic growth centers will be managed through the development of industrial clusters and special economic zones (SEZ). This will be accompanied with increased and improved connectivity between the centers of economic growth (major cities) and main industrial clusters supported by improved infrastructure including roads, seaports, airports, power, water, and other related infrastructures. In all, growth centers and connectivity are the building blocks of Indonesia Economic Corridors. Increasing the economic potential of the region through the economic corridors has become one of the three main pillars of MP3EI. • The success of the MP3EI depends on the strength of national and international economic connectivity (intra and inter region). With this consideration, the MP3EI has identified the strengthening of national connectivity as one of three main pillars. National connectivity consist of four national policy elements i.e. National Logistic System (Sistem Logistik Nasional/Sislognas), 16
  • 17. National Transportation System (Sistem Transportasi Nasional/Sistranas), Regional Development (RPJMN/RTRWN), and Information and Communication Technology (ICT). These policies were combined in order to create an effective, efficient, and integrated national connectivity. • The development of economic corridors in Indonesia is based on the potentials and advantages inherent in each region. As a country consisting of thousands of islands and located between two continents and two oceans, the Indonesian archipelago has a unique combination of economic potentials with each major island or region having its own strategic future role in achieving Indonesia’s 2025 vision. 4.2. Forecast of Indonesia Port Traffic 4.2.1 Future Trend of Port Demand • The top 50 ports in Indonesia handled 846.9 million tons in 2009 or 87.2 percent of the total traffic. Accounting for 89 percent of the foreign trade and 85 percent of the domestic trade volumes in 2009. 4.2.2 Future Trend of Container Demand • International Traffic, Modeling based on Other Countries & Indonesia GDP • Domestic Traffic, by Indonesia GDP • High growth of container demand also resulted from containerization of general cargo • It is predicted that national container demand on 2030 might reach 29.4 Million TEUs of International Traffic (6.2 Million TEUs on 2009) and 18.3 Million TEUs of Domestic Traffic (2.7 Million TEUs on 2009) 50,000 000's TEUs 45,000 Domestic 40,000 International 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year 4.2.3 Future Trend of Port Demand by Commodity Type • General Cargo, the growth rates for domestic and international general cargo traffic are about one-third of those forecast for containers. This reflects the recent growth rates experienced for international general cargo traffic and the expectation that there will be further containerization of domestic general cargo. • Dry Bulk o Cement, the Indonesia Cement Association prepares forecasts cement industry sales which are forecast to increase to 49 million tons in 2015 corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 4.8 percent and it is forecasted to be 113 million tons of domestic cement sales by 2030, corresponding to an average growth rate of 5.7 percent. 17
  • 18. o Coal, Indonesia is one of the world leading producers of coal and leads the world in exports of thermal coal. In 2010, coal production in Indonesia totaled 325 million tons, of which 265 million tons were exported and 60 million tons were consumed domestically. Potential areas of expansion in Central Kalimantan and inland locations in Sumatera will require development of costly inland transportation systems. It is expected that until such inland transport systems are developed, coal production in Indonesia will increase modestly at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. As domestic consumption increases with the implementation of the national energy policy, Indonesian exports of coal are expected to remain flat or decline slightly. o Iron Ore, Large quantities of iron ore reserves are located in Kalimantan. However, the national iron ore production is mostly exported and not used in domestic steelmaking as Indonesia does not currently process iron ore into sponge iron or iron pellet. As such, and also due to the ferrous content of the iron ore, the domestic steel company PT. Krakatau Steel imports iron ore from Chile, Brazil and other countries. Hence, Indonesian port traffic for iron ore is in foreign trade, both for imports and exports. Iron ore port traffic is forecast to increase at an annual rate of 4.9 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 4.6 percent from 2015 to 2020 reflecting the increased demand for steel domestically and the resulting requirement for increased iron ore imports as well as modest increases in iron ore production and exports. o Fertilizer, the increased use of fertilizer in Indonesian agriculture is a significant component of the MP3EI plans for increasing yields of Indonesian principal crops. In 2011, Indonesian production of urea fertilizer is estimated at 7.1 million tons, about 81 percent of the estimated production capacity of 8.8 million tons. Other major types of fertilizer produced in Indonesia are ammonia-based products and nitrogen- phosphorous and potassium (NPK) products. o Grain, grain traffic handled at Indonesian ports consists of foreign imports of wheat and other grains and domestic shipments of rice, corn and other common crops. The major grain that is imported is wheat. Presently Indonesian imports a total of about four and a half million tons of wheat annually, and more than half are passing through Tanjung Priok. It is forecasted that Indonesia will import a total of about 7 million tons of wheat in 2030 as both population and per capita GDP increase. o Other Dry Bulk, other dry bulk commodities include other ores and minerals, sand and aggregates used for construction, chemical products, iron and steel and forestry products. This category of port traffic is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 3.1 percent from 2015 to 2020. • Liquid Bulk o Petroleum and Petroleum Products, it can be expected that generally a low growth rate in future because of the probable removal of fuel subsidies and the likely high world price of crude oil in the long term. The factors affecting demand will be increasing population and rising per capita incomes. They estimated that demand will grow at 3.0 percent a year between 2009 and 2030. o Crude Palm Oil (CPO), Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world with 19.5 million tons in 2009. Malaysia is a close second at 17.5 million tons in 2009. Together these two countries account for about 82 percent of global CPO production. It is believed that CPO production and shipments will increase at an average annual rate of 5.0 percent from 2009 to 2015 and 4.5 percent from 2015 to 2020, based on the assumption that new areas being brought under production are limited. The rate of growth for CPO production is thus assumed to be approximately equal to the long-term growth rate of global CPO demand. o Other Liquid Bulk, includes chemical products and other edible oils and products, such as vegetable oil and molasses. These other liquid bulk products are shipped as 18
  • 19. international trade and consist roughly of 60 percent exports and 40 percent imports. Indonesian port traffic of other liquid bulk products is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent from 2009 to 2015 and by 3.5 percent from 2015 to 2020. 4.2.4 Future Trend of Port Demand • by Economic Corridor Development Area, Forecasting Year 2030 (tons), Base Case • Assignment to specific port; container in TEUs 19
  • 20. Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2015 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Other Other General Iron Dry Petrol. & Liq. Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Ore Fertilizer Grain Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal Total Samarinda 5,523 1,859 121 75,670 60 252 654 71 76,829 11 50 557 617 84,828 Tg. Priok 13,425 76,710 7,327 6,138 309 324 1,912 2,445 18,455 3,548 703 1,279 5,531 114,121 Tg. Perak 16,506 34,111 606 4,660 240 1,097 1,721 14,615 22,940 2,295 10,022 931 13,247 86,805 Bontang 337 18 41 22,328 - 2,647 4 87 25,107 33,358 18 1,193 34,569 60,031 Pontianak 32,335 1,941 1,837 11,556 - 11,885 23 0 25,301 29 1,395 29 1,453 61,030 Tg. Bara 343 - - 47,056 - 195 - 35 47,286 - - 182 182 47,811 Perawang 32,269 1,226 30 1,141 - 4 1 14,631 15,807 19 6 57 83 49,385 Taboneo 585 - - 41,176 362 21 - - 41,558 - - 163 163 42,307 Kendawangan 0 - - - 451 - - 38,642 39,093 - - - - 39,093 Dumai 7,730 - 390 477 2 539 5 104 1,517 11,841 13,498 691 26,030 35,277 Adang Bay - - - 28,843 48 132 - - 29,023 - - 247 247 29,270 Balikpapan 1,208 745 26 17,768 - 91 9 645 18,539 4,776 259 4,640 9,675 30,167 Belawan/ K Tanjung 4,279 17,373 1,699 2,389 26 947 74 395 5,530 1,160 7,915 271 9,347 36,529 Kota Baru 616 9 49 21,248 1,313 3 1 9 22,624 324 188 156 668 23,917 Banjarmasin 1,058 2,308 219 19,328 262 363 10 14 20,195 8 87 11 107 23,667 Tg. Balai Karimun 573 - - 282 - 3 0 2,989 3,274 16,768 4 1,706 18,477 22,324 Tg. Emas 920 11,249 162 11,062 - 223 213 80 11,739 88 322 162 572 24,480 Merak 7,929 1,246 - 4,935 - - - 106 5,041 436 24 4,462 4,923 19,138 Tarakan 428 339 - 15,738 119 20 - 183 16,060 46 - - 46 16,872 Muara Pantai - - - 16,531 71 - - - 16,602 - 1 - 1 16,604 Makassar 1,524 4,898 579 8,439 13 135 1,243 70 10,478 12 125 12 148 17,048 Muara Satui - - - 12,648 231 - 24 - 12,903 - - - - 12,903 Kuala Tungkal 8,858 439 - - - 3,709 3 18 3,730 27 11 5 43 13,069 Satui 3 - 0 267 - - - - 268 - 12,056 - 12,056 12,326 Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 11,800 - - 11,800 - 1 - 1 11,801 Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 11,971 2 11,972 11,972 STS Karimun 38 - - - - - - 1,195 1,195 8,726 - 1,452 10,178 11,411 Falabisahaya 77 - - 9,591 - - 0 0 9,591 1 - - 1 9,669 Cilacap 1,713 - - 69 - 63 256 - 389 7,328 26 1,143 8,497 10,599 Bitung 8,335 1,223 54 - - 36 29 111 230 0 1,324 - 1,325 11,113 Panjang 994 5,900 330 1,113 205 933 53 84 2,718 204 1,597 286 2,086 11,698 Palembang 387 1,212 144 3,324 - 1,333 46 82 4,928 81 1,172 71 1,323 7,851 Ambon 7,373 298 49 - - 0 27 119 195 54 - - 54 7,920 Teluk Bayur 1,212 823 2,516 695 231 368 14 16 3,839 21 2,684 - 2,705 8,579 Cigading 4,403 36 213 107 2,423 253 - 13 3,009 149 - 37 186 7,634 P. Laut 18 - - 6,361 - - - 18 6,379 61 - 120 181 6,578 Tuban 531 - 309 4,079 - 13 0 370 4,772 1,144 - 469 1,614 6,916 Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 5,894 444 - - - 6,338 - - 48 48 6,387 Tarahan 276 - - 5,951 - - 6 5 5,961 1 - 8 9 6,246 Sei Putting - - - 5,319 - 16 - - 5,335 - - - - 5,335 Batu Ampar 1,377 915 15 164 80 2 - 3,161 3,422 10 111 24 145 5,859 Muara Berau 3 - - 4,895 - 5 - - 4,900 - - - - 4,903 Gresik 253 28 84 - 27 3,538 11 446 4,105 293 - 879 1,172 5,558 Sunda Kelapa 113 - 1,802 - - 3,724 3 6 5,535 0 - 1 1 5,649 Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 4,757 - 33 4,790 4,790 Balongan 223 - - - - - - - - 3,691 - 757 4,448 4,671 Bintuni 68 3 5,693 - - - 3 4 5,699 647 - 30 677 6,447 Kumai 19 37 9 465 101 18 5 - 598 - 4,003 - 4,003 4,658 P. Sambu 0 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 - 0 0 0 Tg. Batu 32 - - 3,834 - - - 1 3,835 7 - 9 16 3,883 Top 50 ports 163,933 165,165 24,310 421,542 7,319 44,699 6,350 80,796 585,017 101,922 69,574 22,122 193,618 1,107,733 All other ports 23,842 7,355 4,315 61,091 6,795 2,558 604 10,673 86,036 17,228 12,069 7,844 37,141 154,374 Total all ports 187,775 172,519 28,625 482,633 14,114 47,257 6,954 91,469 671,053 119,151 81,643 29,965 230,759 1,262,107 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.. 20
  • 21. Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2020 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk Other General Iron Other Petrol. & Liq. Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Ore Fertilizer Grain Dry Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal Total Samarinda 6,590 2,772 158 81,858 75 309 711 83 83,194 13 62 663 738 93,293 Tg. Priok 16,017 114,404 9,576 6,640 387 397 2,078 2,848 21,926 4,317 877 1,522 6,716 159,063 Tg. Perak 19,694 50,872 792 5,041 301 1,345 1,870 17,023 26,373 2,792 12,489 1,107 16,388 113,327 Bontang 402 26 54 24,154 - 3,245 5 101 27,558 40,586 22 1,419 42,027 70,014 Pontianak 38,581 2,894 2,401 12,501 - 14,570 25 0 29,497 35 1,739 34 1,808 72,780 Tg. Bara 409 - - 50,904 - 239 - 40 51,184 - - 217 217 51,809 Perawang 38,501 1,829 39 1,235 - 4 1 17,042 18,321 23 8 68 99 58,750 Taboneo 698 - - 44,543 453 25 - - 45,022 - - 194 194 45,915 Kendawangan 0 - - - 565 - - 45,008 45,573 - - - - 45,573 Dumai 9,223 - 509 516 3 661 5 121 1,815 14,407 16,821 822 32,049 43,088 Adang Bay - - - 31,202 60 162 - - 31,423 - - 294 294 31,717 Balikpapan 1,442 1,111 33 19,221 - 112 10 751 20,128 5,811 322 5,520 11,653 34,333 Belawan/ K Tanjung 5,105 25,910 2,221 2,584 33 1,161 80 460 6,539 1,411 9,864 323 11,598 49,153 Kota Baru 736 14 65 22,985 1,646 4 1 10 24,711 394 234 186 814 26,274 Banjarmasin 1,262 3,441 286 20,908 328 445 11 16 21,994 10 109 13 132 26,830 Tg. Balai Karimun 683 - - 306 - 3 0 3,482 3,791 20,400 5 2,029 22,434 26,908 Tg. Emas 1,097 16,776 212 11,967 - 273 232 93 12,776 107 402 192 701 31,350 Merak 9,460 1,858 - 5,339 - - - 123 5,462 531 30 5,308 5,869 22,649 Tarakan 510 505 - 17,024 149 25 - 214 17,412 55 - - 55 18,483 Muara Pantai - - - 17,883 90 - - - 17,972 - 2 - 2 17,974 Makassar 1,818 7,304 756 9,129 16 165 1,351 81 11,499 14 156 14 184 20,805 Muara Satui - - - 13,682 290 - 26 - 13,998 - - - - 13,998 Kuala Tungkal 10,569 655 - - - 4,547 3 20 4,571 33 13 6 52 15,847 Satui 4 - 0 289 - - - - 290 - 15,024 - 15,024 15,317 Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 14,466 - - 14,466 - 2 - 2 14,467 Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 14,917 2 14,920 14,920 STS Karimun 45 - - - - - - 1,392 1,392 10,617 - 1,727 12,344 13,782 Falabisahaya 92 - - 10,375 - - 0 0 10,375 1 - - 1 10,468 Cilacap 2,044 - - 75 - 78 278 - 431 8,916 32 1,360 10,308 12,782 Bitung 9,944 1,825 70 - - 44 32 130 276 0 1,650 - 1,651 13,696 Panjang 1,186 8,800 431 1,204 257 1,144 57 98 3,191 248 1,990 340 2,578 15,754 Palembang 462 1,808 188 3,596 - 1,634 50 95 5,563 99 1,460 84 1,643 9,475 Ambon 8,797 444 64 - - 0 29 138 232 65 - - 65 9,539 Teluk Bayur 1,446 1,227 3,289 751 289 451 15 18 4,813 26 3,345 - 3,371 10,857 Cigading 5,254 54 279 116 3,036 310 - 15 3,756 181 - 43 225 9,288 P. Laut 21 - - 6,882 - - - 21 6,902 74 - 143 217 7,141 Tuban 633 - 404 4,413 - 16 0 431 5,264 1,392 - 558 1,951 7,848 Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 6,376 557 - - - 6,933 - - 57 57 6,990 Tarahan 329 - - 6,437 - - 6 6 6,449 2 - 9 11 6,789 Sei Putting - - - 5,754 - 20 - - 5,774 - - - - 5,774 Batu Ampar 1,643 1,365 20 177 100 2 - 3,682 3,981 12 138 29 179 7,167 Muara Berau 4 - - 5,295 - 6 - - 5,302 - - - - 5,305 Gresik 302 41 110 - 33 4,337 12 520 5,011 356 - 1,045 1,402 6,757 Sunda Kelapa 135 - 2,355 - - 4,565 4 7 6,930 0 - 2 2 7,067 Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 5,788 - 39 5,827 5,827 Balongan 266 - - - - - - - - 4,491 - 900 5,391 5,657 Bintuni 81 4 7,440 - - - 3 5 7,448 787 - 35 823 8,356 Kumai 23 55 12 503 126 22 6 - 669 - 4,989 - 4,989 5,736 P. Sambu 0 - - 0 - - - - 0 0 - 0 0 0 Tg. Batu 39 - - 4,148 - - - 1 4,148 9 - 10 19 4,206 Top 50 ports 195,596 246,323 31,772 456,014 9,171 54,796 6,901 94,106 652,760 124,004 86,702 26,315 237,022 1,331,700 All other ports 28,447 10,968 5,640 66,087 8,514 3,136 656 12,431 96,464 20,961 15,040 9,331 45,332 181,211 Total all ports 224,043 257,291 37,411 522,101 17,686 57,932 7,557 106,537 749,224 144,965 101,742 35,646 282,353 1,512,911 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.. 21
  • 22. Indonesia’s Top 50 Ports for Total Traffic by Cargo Type and Principal Commodity, 2030 (000’s tons) Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk General Other Dry Petrol. & Other Liq. Port Cargo Container Cement Coal Iron Ore Fertilizer Grain Bulk Subtotal Products CPO Bulk Subtotal Total Samarinda 8,622 5,146 267 100,849 108 443 825 106 102,599 19 91 893 1,003 117,371 Tg. Priok 20,959 212,399 16,179 8,181 558 569 2,412 3,646 31,545 6,390 1,298 2,050 9,738 274,641 Tg. Perak 25,770 94,447 1,339 6,211 435 1,928 2,170 21,791 33,873 4,133 18,486 1,492 24,111 178,202 Bontang 526 48 90 29,757 - 4,653 5 129 34,635 60,077 33 1,912 62,022 97,231 Pontianak 50,482 5,374 4,057 15,401 - 20,887 29 0 40,374 52 2,574 46 2,672 98,902 Tg. Bara 535 - - 62,714 - 343 - 52 63,108 - - 292 292 63,935 Perawang 50,378 3,396 66 1,521 - 6 2 21,815 23,410 35 12 91 138 77,321 Taboneo 914 - - 54,877 654 36 - - 55,568 - - 262 262 56,743 Kendawangan 0 - - - 816 - - 57,614 58,430 - - - - 58,430 Dumai 12,068 - 861 636 4 947 6 155 2,608 21,325 24,900 1,107 47,332 62,008 Adang Bay - - - 38,440 87 232 - - 38,758 - - 396 396 39,154 Balikpapan 1,886 2,062 57 23,680 - 161 12 962 24,870 8,602 477 7,436 16,515 45,333 Belawan/ K Tanjung 6,680 48,104 3,752 3,184 48 1,664 93 589 9,330 2,089 14,601 435 17,125 81,239 Kota Baru 962 26 109 28,318 2,376 6 1 13 30,824 583 347 250 1,180 32,992 Banjarmasin 1,651 6,389 484 25,759 474 638 12 21 27,386 15 161 18 194 35,621 Tg. Balai Karimun 894 - - 376 - 5 0 4,457 4,838 30,197 7 2,733 32,937 38,670 Tg. Emas 1,436 31,146 357 14,743 - 391 269 119 15,879 158 594 259 1,011 49,473 Merak 12,378 3,450 - 6,578 - - - 158 6,735 786 44 7,151 7,981 30,544 Tarakan 667 938 - 20,974 215 35 - 274 21,498 82 - - 82 23,186 Muara Pantai - - - 22,031 129 - - - 22,161 - 2 - 2 22,163 Makassar 2,379 13,561 1,278 11,247 23 237 1,567 104 14,457 21 230 19 270 30,667 Muara Satui - - - 16,857 419 - 30 - 17,305 - - - - 17,305 Kuala Tungkal 13,829 1,217 - - - 6,519 4 26 6,548 48 20 8 76 21,670 Satui 5 - 0 356 - - - - 357 - 22,239 - 22,239 22,600 Teluk Melano 0 - - - - 20,737 - - 20,737 - 3 - 3 20,740 Kuaro - - - - - - - - - - 22,081 3 22,084 22,084 STS Karimun 59 - - - - - - 1,782 1,782 15,716 - 2,327 18,043 19,884 Falabisahaya 121 - - 12,782 - - 0 0 12,782 1 - - 1 12,904 Cilacap 2,674 - - 92 - 111 323 - 526 13,198 48 1,831 15,078 18,278 Bitung 13,012 3,388 118 - - 63 37 166 385 0 2,443 - 2,443 19,228 Panjang 1,551 16,337 728 1,483 371 1,639 66 125 4,414 367 2,946 458 3,771 26,074 Palembang 604 3,357 317 4,430 - 2,342 58 122 7,269 146 2,161 113 2,421 13,651 Ambon 11,511 825 109 - - 0 34 177 320 97 - - 97 12,753 Teluk Bayur 1,892 2,277 5,556 926 417 646 18 23 7,587 38 4,951 - 4,989 16,745 Cigading 6,874 100 471 143 4,384 444 - 19 5,461 268 - 59 327 12,763 P. Laut 28 - - 8,478 - - - 27 8,505 110 - 193 303 8,835 Tuban 828 - 683 5,437 - 23 0 552 6,694 2,061 - 752 2,813 10,335 Tg. Pemancingan 1 - - 7,856 804 - - - 8,659 - - 76 76 8,736 Tarahan 431 - - 7,931 - - 7 7 7,945 2 - 12 15 8,391 Sei Putting - - - 7,089 - 28 - - 7,117 - - - - 7,117 Batu Ampar 2,150 2,533 33 218 144 3 - 4,713 5,112 17 205 39 261 10,056 Muara Berau 5 - - 6,524 - 9 - - 6,533 - - - - 6,538 Gresik 396 77 186 - 48 6,217 14 665 7,130 527 - 1,408 1,936 9,538 Sunda Kelapa 176 - 3,979 - - 6,544 4 8 10,536 0 - 2 2 10,714 Lawi-Lawi - - - - - - - - - 8,568 - 53 8,621 8,621 Balongan 348 - - - - - - - - 6,648 - 1,213 7,861 8,208 Bintuni 107 8 12,571 - - - 3 6 12,580 1,166 - 48 1,213 13,908 Kumai 30 102 21 619 182 32 7 - 861 - 7,384 - 7,384 8,378 P. Sambu 1 - - 4,905 - - - - 4,905 229 - 47 275 5,181 Tg. Batu 51 - - 5,110 - - - 1 5,111 13 - 14 27 5,188 Top 50 ports 255,934 457,317 53,682 566,710 13,243 78,554 8,009 120,463 840,660 183,785 128,340 35,495 347,620 1,901,532 All other ports 37,221 20,364 9,529 76,514 12,294 4,495 762 15,913 119,507 30,799 22,263 12,523 65,584 242,675 Total all ports 293,155 477,680 63,210 643,224 25,537 83,050 8,770 136,376 960,167 214,584 150,603 48,017 413,204 2,144,207 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text.. 22
  • 23. Indonesian Container Traffic under Alternative Growth Scenario, 2009-2030 (000’s TEU) Low Growth Base Case High Growth Year InternationalDomestic Total InternationaDomestic Total InternationaDomestic Total 2009 6.199 2.772 8.972 6.199 2.772 8.972 6.199 2.772 8.972 2010 6.926 4.050 10.976 6.926 4.050 10.976 6.926 4.050 10.976 2011 7.548 4.464 12.012 7.557 4.464 12.022 7.577 4.464 12.041 2012 8.172 4.890 13.062 8.249 4.926 13.174 8.308 4.961 13.269 2013 8.838 5.342 14.180 8.997 5.427 14.424 9.107 5.502 14.609 2014 9.549 5.820 15.370 9.809 5.971 15.780 9.981 6.093 16.073 2015 10.308 6.328 16.636 10.689 6.563 17.252 10.937 6.736 17.673 2016 11.099 6.866 17.965 11.644 7.206 18.851 11.984 7.439 19.423 2017 11.904 7.388 19.293 12.603 7.876 20.478 13.033 8.195 21.228 2018 12.761 7.939 20.701 13.614 8.569 22.183 14.161 9.007 23.168 2019 13.673 8.521 22.194 14.680 9.287 23.967 15.375 9.880 25.255 2020 14.585 9.079 23.664 15.727 10.002 25.729 16.603 10.756 27.359 2021 15.527 9.665 25.191 16.790 10.697 27.487 17.883 11.694 29.577 2022 16.524 10.280 26.804 17.918 11.430 29.349 19.252 12.697 31.949 2023 17.582 10.925 28.508 19.117 12.204 31.321 20.716 13.770 34.486 2024 18.704 11.604 30.307 20.390 13.020 33.411 22.282 14.919 37.201 2025 19.894 12.316 32.209 21.682 13.803 35.485 23.958 16.147 40.106 2026 21.014 12.988 34.003 23.053 14.625 37.678 25.678 17.368 43.046 2027 22.195 13.691 35.887 24.506 15.488 39.994 27.513 18.669 46.182 2028 23.439 14.426 37.865 26.049 16.394 42.443 29.472 20.053 49.525 2029 24.750 15.194 39.944 27.686 17.346 45.031 31.563 21.528 53.091 2030 26.132 15.996 42.128 29.423 18.345 47.768 33.790 23.099 56.889 Average Annual Growth Rate 2009-15 8,8% 14,7% 10,8% 9,5% 15,4% 11,5% 9,9% 15,9% 12,0% 2015-20 7,2% 7,5% 7,3% 8,0% 8,8% 8,3% 8,7% 9,8% 9,1% 2020-30 6,0% 5,8% 5,9% 6,5% 6,3% 6,4% 7,4% 7,9% 7,6% Source: Nathan Associates Inc. 23
  • 24. High Growth Scenario Forecast of Total Cargo Handled at Indonesian Ports, 2009-2030 (000’s tons) 2009 2015 2020 2030 Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of cargo Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total General Cargo 32,840 110,859 143,699 40,369 152,858 193,226 46,799 190,488 237,287 59,906 268,703 328,609 Container 61,000 27,223 88,222 109,370 67,360 176,730 166,030 107,560 273,590 337,900 230,990 568,890 Dry Bulk 312,852 255,914 568,766 503,082 346,293 849,375 575,209 449,686 1,024,895 758,098 634,983 1,393,081 Cement 144 14,941 15,085 6,706 22,676 29,382 9,188 30,345 39,533 15,694 53,327 69,021 Coal 279,303 139,349 418,652 314,541 203,330 517,871 330,586 272,101 602,687 365,172 365,681 730,854 Iron Ore 10,531 91 10,623 151,783 400 152,184 198,375 1,000 199,375 323,131 2,479 325,611 Fertilizer 5,162 30,665 35,828 7,532 41,095 48,627 9,845 52,448 62,293 16,036 85,433 101,468 Grain 3,832 2,343 6,175 4,444 2,717 7,161 4,907 3,000 7,907 5,981 3,657 9,638 Other Dry Bulk 13,879 60,124 74,003 18,075 76,076 94,150 22,309 90,791 113,101 32,083 124,406 156,489 Liquid Bulk 136,723 39,349 176,072 184,105 55,769 239,873 231,466 74,563 306,029 360,024 121,407 481,430 Petroleum & Products 91,110 385 91,495 122,097 516 122,612 152,155 643 152,797 236,291 998 237,290 CPO 22,438 38,485 60,923 31,829 54,592 86,421 42,594 73,057 115,651 69,381 119,002 188,383 Other Liquid Bulk 23,175 479 23,654 30,179 661 30,840 36,718 863 37,581 54,352 1,406 55,758 Total 543,415 433,346 976,761 836,925 622,280 1,459,205 1,019,504 822,298 1,841,802 1,515,928 1,256,082 2,772,010 Average annual growth rate (%) General Cargo - - - 3.5 5.5 5.1 3.0 4.5 4.2 2.5 3.5 3.3 Container - - - 10.2 16.3 12.3 8.7 9.8 9.1 7.4 7.9 7.6 Dry Bulk - - - 8.2 5.2 6.9 2.7 5.4 3.8 2.8 3.5 3.1 Cement - - - 89.7 7.2 11.8 6.5 6.0 6.1 5.5 5.8 5.7 Coal - - - 2.0 6.5 3.6 1.0 6.0 3.1 1.0 3.0 1.9 Iron Ore - - - 56.0 27.9 55.8 5.5 20.1 5.6 5.0 9.5 5.0 Fertilizer - - - 6.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Grain - - - 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other Dry Bulk - - - 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.3 Liquid Bulk - - - Petroleum & Products - - - 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 CPO - - - 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Other Liquid Bulk - - - 4.5 5.5 4.5 4.0 5.5 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 Total - - - 7.5 6.2 6.9 4.0 5.7 4.8 4.0 4.3 4.2 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text. 24
  • 25. Low Growth Scenario Forecast of Total Cargo Handled at Indonesian Ports, 2009-2030 (000’s tons) 2009 2015 2020 2030 Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of Trade Type of cargo Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total Foreign Domestic Total General Cargo 32,840 110,859 143,699 36,983 140,272 177,256 40,434 166,600 207,033 46,009 203,084 249,092 Container 61,000 27,223 88,222 103,080 63,280 166,360 145,850 90,790 236,640 261,320 159,960 421,280 Dry Bulk 312,852 255,914 568,766 289,314 314,218 603,532 261,307 385,699 647,005 217,576 545,654 763,230 Cement 144 14,941 15,085 182 19,458 19,640 227 24,248 24,475 352 37,656 38,008 Coal 279,303 139,349 418,652 247,419 181,468 428,887 212,467 231,605 444,072 156,678 342,832 499,510 Iron Ore 10,531 91 10,623 13,714 123 13,837 16,288 156 16,445 19,855 267 20,123 Fertilizer 5,162 30,665 35,828 6,723 38,802 45,524 8,101 46,084 54,185 11,427 63,146 74,573 Grain 3,832 2,343 6,175 4,215 2,577 6,792 4,541 2,776 7,317 5,270 3,222 8,492 Other Dry Bulk 13,879 60,124 74,003 17,061 71,791 88,852 19,683 80,829 100,512 23,993 98,530 122,524 Liquid Bulk 136,723 39,349 176,072 172,491 50,354 222,846 206,052 59,813 265,866 284,072 80,423 364,496 Petroleum & Products 91,110 385 91,495 115,284 487 115,771 138,917 587 139,504 195,956 828 196,784 CPO 22,438 38,485 60,923 28,720 49,261 77,981 34,111 58,507 92,617 45,842 78,628 124,470 Other Liquid Bulk 23,175 479 23,654 28,488 606 29,094 33,025 720 33,745 42,275 968 43,242 Total 543,415 433,346 976,761 601,869 568,125 1,169,994 653,643 702,902 1,356,544 808,977 989,121 1,798,098 Average annual growth rate (%) General Cargo - - - 2.0 4.0 3.6 1.8 3.5 3.2 1.3 2.0 1.9 Container - - - 9.1 15.1 11.2 7.2 7.5 7.3 6.0 5.8 5.9 Dry Bulk - - - (1.3) 3.5 1.0 (2.0) 4.2 1.4 (1.8) 3.5 1.7 Cement - - - 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Coal - - - (2.0) 4.5 0.4 (3.0) 5.0 0.7 (3.0) 4.0 1.2 Iron Ore - - - 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.5 5.0 3.5 2.0 5.5 2.0 Fertilizer - - - 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 Grain - - - 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Other Dry Bulk - - - 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Liquid Bulk - - - Petroleum & Products - - - 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 CPO - - - 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 Other Liquid Bulk - - - 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 Total - - - 1.7 4.6 3.1 1.7 4.3 3.0 2.2 3.5 2.9 Source: Prepared by Nathan Associates Inc. as described in text. • Forecast of Indonesian Total Container Traffic under Alternative Growth Scenarios, 2015-2030 (000’s TEU) 60,000 Low Growth 000's TEUs Base Case 50,000 High Growth 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year 25
  • 26. Forecast of Total Indonesian Port Traffic by Cargo Type Under Alternative Growth Scenarios, 2015- 2030 (000’s tons) 3,000,000 Dry Bulk 000's tons Liquid Bulk 2,500,000 Container 2,000,000 General Cargo 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Low Base High Low Base High Low Base High 2015 2020 2030 Year 26