Led by new launches from Honda (New Activa), Hero (Maestro), and TVS(Jupiter), the scooter segment grew at a faster clip of 30.4% YoY for Aug’14 period. The motorcycle segment, too, witnessed a faster pace of growth, growing at 14.4% vs 6.2% last month.

1. September 16, 2014
Automobiles
2W ‐ Scooters grow at 30.4%; Motorcycle volumes grow at 14.4%
140
130
120
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100
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Sector Update
Surjit Arora
surjitarora@plindia.com
+91‐22‐66322235
Hussain Kagzi
hussainkagzi@plindia.com
+91‐22‐66322242
Sensex v/s. Hero Motocorp & Bajaj Auto
90
Sep‐13
Nov‐13
Jan‐14
Mar‐14
May‐14
Jul‐14
Sep‐14
Sensex Bajaj Auto
Hero Motocorp
Source: Bloomberg
Stock Performance
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Sensex 2.7 23.0 35.8
Auto 9.4 39.6 62.7
Bajaj Auto 9.3 18.1 16.6
Hero Motocorp 11.5 31.8 33.4
Stock Data
CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) PE (x)
FY15E FY16E
Bajaj Auto 2,333 2,446 18.8 15.7
Hero Motocorp 2,800 3,057 19.8 16.5
How we differ from Consensus
EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff.
Bajaj Auto
2015 124.0 127.5 ‐2.7
2016 148.1 147.4 0.5
Hero Motocorp
2015 141.4 138.3 2.2
2016 169.8 169.7 0.1
 Scooter segment accounted for 27.4% of the two‐wheeler market for Aug ’14:
Led by new launches from Honda (New Activa), Hero (Maestro), and TVS
(Jupiter), the scooter segment grew at a faster clip of 30.4% YoY for Aug’14
period. The motorcycle segment, too, witnessed a faster pace of growth,
growing at 14.4% vs 6.2% last month. (Exhibit 2 &3). The faster volume growth
of the scooter segment led to a 236bps YoY improvement in it’s market share.
The main drivers for the growth are (a) growing acceptability of gearless
scooters, particularly by women, (b) rising urbanization and increasing
proportion of working women and (c) new launches. We expect 17‐18% CAGR in
scooter volumes for the next three years.
 TVS Motor (TVS) gains 560bps market share YoY in the scooter segment: Led
by the success of its new offering ‘Jupiter’, TVS reported growth of 92% YoY for
Aug’14 period, thereby, gaining market share to the tune of 560bps to 17.4%.
 Motorcycle sales growth YTD FY15 at 10% YoY: Led by new launches, capacity
expansion and improvement in overall demand environment, Hero Motocorp
(HMCL) reported a growth of 23.7% YoY, while Honda Motorcycle and Scooter
India (HMSI) reported a slower growth of 6.3% YoY. On the other hand, Bajaj
Auto’s (BJA) decline was restricted to 9.0% YoY (as compared to a 18% decline in
Jul’14). Hence, the overall growth for motorcycle segment was up by 14.4% YoY.
 In the motorcycle segment, Hero Moto Corp Ltd (HMCL) gained 400bps market
share at the cost of 390bps market share loss of BJA: Driven by new launches
and onset of festive season, HMCL reported 23.7% YoY growth, thereby,
maintaining market share at 53.7% for Aug’14 period. BJA reported a decline of
9.0% YoY, thereby, losing market share to the tune of 390bps YoY to 15.1%. At
the same time, HMSI and Royal Enfield reported a 6.3% and 66.3% YoY increase
respectively for Aug’14 period. Our channel checks suggest strong traction for
HMCL products, both in scooters as well as motorcycle segments. Also, HMSI has
not been able to make a dent in the traditionally strong market for Hero (mainly
the northern market).
 BJA concedes 445bps market share in 75‐110cc and gains 489bps in 125‐150cc
segment: On account of lower sales of ‘Discover’ and ‘Platina’, BJA’s volumes
declined by 15.6% YoY in the 75‐110cc segment as against 24.4% YoY growth in
the segment during Aug’14 period. This led to 445bps loss in market share to
9.4% for Aug’14 period. On the other hand, HMCL gained 585bps market share
in this segment, given the strong demand for HMCL’s ‘HF Deluxe’ and ‘Splendor’
(Exhibit 4&5). In the 125‐150cc category, BJA reported a 19.7% YoY growth on a
low base, thereby leading to a 489bps increase in market share in Aug’14 month
However, for Apr‐Aug’14 period, BJA lost ~230bps in market share, while HMCL
gained ~270bps in market share led by ‘Xtreme’ and ‘Impulse’.
 Maintain Accumulate: Given the strong product portfolio and the initial success
of Splendor ‘iSmart’, we believe Hero Motocorp (HMCL) could surprise
positively on the volume front. On the other hand, with exports and three‐wheelers
growing at 25%+, margin surprise is likely at Bajaj Auto. We maintain
our Accumulate call on both the stocks and continue our preference for HMCL
over BJA.

2. Automobiles
Exhibit 1: Two‐ Wheeler sector snapshot
Avg. Domestic Monthly Sales Key products Scooter (Apr‐Aug’14) Motorcycle (Apr‐Aug’14)
Scooters Motorcycles Scooters Motorcycles Share in
portfolio (%)
Market Share
(%)
Share in
portfolio (%)
Market Share
(%)
Hero Motocorp 57,067 489,061 110cc ‐
Maestro
110cc Passion
X Pro 125cc ‐
Ignitor
10.4% 16.3% 89.6% 53.8%
Bajaj Auto NA 150,648 NA
Discover 125
ST Pulsar
200 NS
NA NA 61.0% 16.6%
Honda Motorcycles &
Scooters India 192,066 145,603 125cc Activa 110cc Dream
Yuga, Neo 56.9% 54.8% 43.1% 16.0%
TVS Motor 54,687 54,726 110cc ‐ Jupiter 125cc
‘Pheonix’ 32.0% 15.6% 32.0% 6.0%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
New Launches
Scooter
Hero’s ‘Maestro’ Honda’s ‘Activa 125cc’ TVS ‘Jupiter’
Motorcycles
Hero’s Splendor ‘iSmart Honda’s ‘Dream Neo’ Bajaj’s 125 ST ‘Discover’
Source: Company Data, PL Research
September 16, 2014 2

3. Automobiles
Exhibit 2: Domestic Scooter Segment
Company Aug’13 Aug’14 Apr‐Aug’13 Apr‐Aug’14 FY14 FY15E
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 54,966 46,764 275,198 285,334 690,079 768,400
YoY gr. (%) (14.9) 3.7 25.5 11.3
MS (%) 19.4 12.7 20.5 16.3 19.2 17.2
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd 147,600 217,751 678,857 960,332 1,902,859 2,419,574
YoY gr. (%) 47.5 41.5 34.0 27.2
MS (%) 52.1 59.0 50.7 54.8 52.8 54.0
India Yamaha Motor Pvt Ltd 14,114 20,085 61,854 101,517 176,981 246,000
YoY gr. (%) 42.3 64.1 193.6 39.0
MS (%) 5.0 5.4 4.6 5.8 4.9 5.5
Suzuki Motorcycle India Pvt Ltd 26,770 16,139 117,237 109,308 296,805 291,805
YoY gr. (%) (39.7) (6.8) (9.7) (1.7)
MS (%) 9.5 4.4 8.7 6.2 8.2 6.5
TVS Motor Company Ltd 33,462 64,372 166,901 273,437 456,975 664,219
YoY gr. (%) 92.4 63.8 7.7 45.4
MS (%) 11.8 17.4 12.5 15.6 12.7 14.8
Total 283,142 369,323 1,340,170 1,751,881 3,602,744 4,479,590
YoY gr. (%) 30.4 30.7 23.2 24.3
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Exhibit 3: Domestic Motorcycle Segment
Company Aug’13 Aug’14 Apr‐Aug’13 Apr‐Aug’14 FY14 FY15E
Bajaj Auto Ltd 150,989 137,347 875,817 753,241 2,099,230 2,122,870
YoY gr. (%) (9.0) (14.0) (14.8) 1.1
MS (%) 19.0 15.1 21.2 16.6 20.0 17.9
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 395,180 488,739 2,180,123 2,445,306 5,425,118 6,056,000
YoY gr. (%) 23.7 12.2 1.2 11.6
MS (%) 49.7 53.7 52.8 53.8 51.8 50.6
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd 144,039 153,120 599,751 728,017 1,186,726 2,049,435
YoY gr. (%) 6.3 21.4 23.8
MS (%) 18.1 16.8 14.5 16.0 15.8 17.3
India Yamaha Motor Pvt Ltd 28,881 33,157 124,138 141,511 307,511 345,962
YoY gr. (%) 14.8 14.0 12.5
MS (%) 3.6 3.6 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9
Royal Enfield (Unit of Eicher Ltd) 15,708 26,121 69,265 125,126 202,759 325,000
YoY gr. (%) 66.3 80.6 60.3
MS (%) 2.0 2.9 1.7 2.8 1.2 2.7
TVS Motor Company Ltd 43,467 58,388 224,727 273,630 572,732 694,642
YoY gr. (%) 34.3 21.8 21.3
MS (%) 5.5 6.4 5.4 6.0 5.5 5.9
Total B: Motor cycles/Step‐ Through 795,411 910,312 4,129,248 4,542,276 10,479,817 11,827,667
YoY gr. (%) 14.4 10.0 12.9
Source: SAIM Data, PL Research
September 16, 2014 3

4. Automobiles
Exhibit 4: 75cc – 110cc Motorcycle segment
Company Aug’13 Aug’14 Apr‐Aug’13 Apr‐Aug’14
Bajaj Auto Ltd (Boxer, CT, Platina, Discover) 67,411 56,909 476,164 370,900
YoY gr. (%) (15.6) (22.1)
MS (%) 13.8 9.4 18.0 13.0
Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HF Dawn, HF Deluxe, Splendor, Passion) 319,523 433,131 1,793,359 2,017,616
YoY gr. (%) 35.6 12.5
MS (%) 65.6 71.4 67.9 70.5
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd (CB Twister, Dream) 61,099 64,822 192,192 228,222
YoY gr. (%) 6.1 18.7
MS (%) 12.5 10.7 7.3 8.0
TVS Motor Company Ltd (Victor GX, Jive, MAX 4R, STAR CITY, SPORT) 24,698 39,356 136,208 172,352
YoY gr. (%) 59.3 26.5
MS (%) 5.1 6.5 5.2 6.0
Total 487,300 606,430 2,641,968 2,860,072
YoY gr. (%) 24.4 8.3
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
Exhibit 5: 125‐150cc Motorcycle segment
Company Aug’13 Aug’14 Apr‐Aug’13 Apr‐Aug’14
Bajaj Auto Ltd (Boxer, Discover, Pulsar) 45,333 54,268 200,168 217,362
YoY gr. (%) 19.7 8.6
MS (%) 44.4 49.3 43.6 41.3
Hero MotoCorp Ltd (Acheiver, Hunk, CBZ Xtreme, Impulse) 9,446 6,943 46,520 67,122
YoY gr. (%) (26.5) 44.3
MS (%) 9.3 6.3 10.1 12.7
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd (CB Unicorn, CB Unicorn Dazzler, CBR 150R) 22,922 17,654 109,256 116,769
YoY gr. (%) (23.0) 6.9
MS (%) 22.4 16.0 23.8 22.2
India Yamaha Motor Pvt Ltd (FZ, Fazer, SZ, R15) 24,148 29,053 100,627 122,787
YoY gr. (%) 20.3 22.0
MS (%) 23.6 26.4 21.9 23.3
Total 102,111 110,107 458,766 526,857
YoY gr. (%) 7.8 14.8
Source: SIAM Data, PL Research
September 16, 2014 4

5. Automobiles
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate – CMP: Rs2,333 – TP: Rs2,446
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Net Revenue 202,880 204,328 229,456 262,712
Raw Material Expenses 144,066 138,766 158,113 180,051
Gross Profit 58,814 65,562 71,344 82,661
Employee Cost 6,395 7,266 8,181 9,074
Other Expenses 13,159 13,626 15,081 16,538
EBITDA 39,260 44,670 48,081 57,050
Depr. & Amortization 1,640 1,791 2,292 2,476
Net Interest 5 2 5 5
Other Income 5,048 3,457 4,528 5,800
Profit before Tax 42,663 46,334 50,312 60,369
Total Tax 12,227 13,901 15,094 17,507
Profit after Tax 30,436 32,433 35,218 42,862
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. 1,320 (774) (672) —
Adj. PAT 29,116 33,207 35,890 42,862
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 289.4 289.4 289.4 289.4
EPS (Rs.) 100.6 114.8 124.0 148.1
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
C/F from Operations 21,344 38,534 33,284 36,915
C/F from Investing (12,778) (21,415) (6,800) (7,200)
C/F from Financing (19,531) (16,991) (20,226) (21,912)
Inc. / Dec. in Cash (10,964) 129 6,258 7,804
Opening Cash 16,553 5,588 4,955 11,884
Closing Cash 5,588 4,955 11,884 19,688
FCFF 17,652 33,623 32,156 34,715
FCFE 17,389 33,488 32,156 34,715
Key Financial Metrics
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Growth
Revenue (%) 2.4 0.7 12.3 14.5
EBITDA (%) (1.7) 13.8 7.6 18.7
PAT (%) (7.2) 14.1 8.1 19.4
EPS (%) (7.2) 14.0 8.1 19.4
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.4 21.9 21.0 21.7
PAT Margin (%) 14.4 16.3 15.6 16.3
RoCE (%) 57.9 52.6 48.1 48.6
RoE (%) 36.8 34.6 32.1 32.3
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity (0.1) — (0.1) (0.1)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (37) (47) (46) (36)
Valuation
PER (x) 23.2 20.3 18.8 15.7
P / B (x) 8.5 7.0 6.0 5.1
EV / EBITDA (x) 17.1 15.0 13.8 11.5
EV / Sales (x) 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.5
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 28.7 30.0 30.0 29.0
Other Inc / PBT 9.0 9.0 10.2 9.6
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 4.3 4.1 5.1 5.2
FCFE / PAT 59.7 100.8 89.6 81.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Shareholder's Funds 79,019 96,080 111,744 132,694
Total Debt 713 577 577 577
Other Liabilities 1,151 1,432 1,432 1,432
Total Liabilities 80,883 98,089 113,753 134,704
Net Fixed Assets 20,277 21,501 21,009 20,733
Goodwill — — — —
Investments 64,305 85,496 90,496 95,496
Net Current Assets (4,402) (8,908) 2,249 18,475
Cash & Equivalents 5,589 4,955 11,884 19,688
Other Current Assets 33,913 35,524 44,971 52,149
Current Liabilities 43,903 49,387 54,607 53,363
Other Assets 703 — — —
Total Assets 80,883 98,089 113,753 134,704
Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15
Net Revenue 52,077 52,261 50,353 52,985
EBITDA 12,041 11,350 10,714 10,385
% of revenue 23.1 21.7 21.3 19.6
Depr. & Amortization 443 460 445 692
Net Interest — — — —
Other Income 914 1,270 818 1,731
Profit before Tax 12,118 11,211 11,087 11,424
Total Tax 3,746 4,063 3,090 3,351
Profit after Tax 8,372 7,147 7,627 8,073
Adj. PAT 8,766 8,097 7,997 8,073
Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
2W Domestic Vol. (nos) 2,463,874 2,098,913 2,122,870 2,335,157
2W Export Vol. (nos) 1,293,231 1,324,503 1,655,629 1,903,973
3W Domestic Vol. (nos) 226,131 186,912 238,313 262,144
3W Export Vol. (nos) 253,926 260,762 281,623 315,418
Total Vol. (nos) 4,237,162 3,871,090 4,298,435 4,816,692
Net Realization/Unit (Rs) 47,881 52,783 53,381 54,542
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 34,001 35,847 36,784 37,381
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 9,266 11,540 11,186 11,844
Net Profit /Unit (Rs) 6,871 8,578 8,350 8,899
Tyres & Tubes (Rs m) 6,427 6,024 6,823 7,799
Other Comp./Unit (Rs) 29,993 31,418 32,361 32,927
Employee Cost (Rs m) 6,395 7,266 8,181 9,074
Advertisement (Rs m) 2,020 2,623 3,100 3,400
Tax Rate (%) 28.7 30.0 30.0 29.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
September 16, 2014 5

6. Automobiles
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate – CMP: Rs2,800– TP: Rs3,057
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Net Revenue 237,681 252,755 287,245 324,395
Raw Material Expenses 173,977 182,299 207,084 231,739
Gross Profit 63,705 70,456 80,161 92,656
Employee Cost 8,209 9,300 10,416 11,468
Other Expenses 22,650 25,755 28,801 32,875
EBITDA 32,845 35,401 40,944 48,312
Depr. & Amortization 11,418 11,074 7,124 7,122
Net Interest 120 118 100 80
Other Income 3,984 4,464 4,800 5,200
Profit before Tax 25,291 28,673 38,520 46,311
Total Tax 4,191 7,582 10,275 12,393
Profit after Tax 21,100 21,091 28,244 33,917
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — —
Adj. PAT 21,100 21,091 28,244 33,917
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 199.7 199.7 199.7 199.7
EPS (Rs.) 105.7 105.6 141.4 169.8
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
C/F from Operations 18,903 29,634 42,870 41,940
C/F from Investing (7,298) (16,193) (21,541) (21,039)
C/F from Financing (10,563) (14,076) (15,057) (18,532)
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 1,042 (635) 6,271 2,368
Opening Cash 768 1,810 1,175 7,446
Closing Cash 1,810 1,175 7,446 9,814
FCFF 20,542 32,808 25,988 23,059
FCFE 20,162 32,808 25,988 23,059
Key Financial Metrics
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Growth
Revenue (%) 0.8 6.3 13.6 12.9
EBITDA (%) (8.9) 7.8 15.7 18.0
PAT (%) (11.3) — 33.9 20.1
EPS (%) (11.3) — 33.9 20.1
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.9
PAT Margin (%) 8.9 8.3 9.8 10.5
RoCE (%) 39.8 38.7 46.1 45.7
RoE (%) 45.4 39.8 46.0 45.6
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity — — (0.1) (0.1)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (16) (19) (19) (13)
Valuation
PER (x) 26.5 26.5 19.8 16.5
P / B (x) 11.2 10.0 8.4 6.8
EV / EBITDA (x) 17.0 15.8 13.5 11.4
EV / Sales (x) 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 16.6 26.4 26.7 26.8
Other Inc / PBT 15.8 15.6 12.5 11.2
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 17.1 16.0 8.1 6.7
FCFE / PAT 95.6 155.6 92.0 68.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Shareholder's Funds 50,062 55,999 66,711 81,938
Total Debt — — — —
Other Liabilities 4,346 (815) — —
Total Liabilities 54,408 55,183 66,711 81,938
Net Fixed Assets 31,331 30,974 42,390 53,810
Goodwill — — — —
Investments 36,238 40,888 43,888 45,888
Net Current Assets (13,161) (16,678) (19,567) (17,759)
Cash & Equivalents 1,810 1,175 7,446 9,814
Other Current Assets 27,037 26,877 29,158 35,170
Current Liabilities 42,008 44,730 56,171 62,744
Other Assets — — — —
Total Assets 54,408 55,183 66,711 81,938
Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15
Net Revenue 57,262 68,758 65,130 70,368
EBITDA 8,327 8,980 8,942 9,472
% of revenue 14.5 13.1 13.7 13.5
Depr. & Amortization 2,869 2,732 2,728 2,915
Net Interest 30 30 29 30
Other Income 1,155 957 1,230 1,128
Profit before Tax 6,584 7,174 7,414 7,655
Total Tax 1,769 1,928 1,870 2,027
Profit after Tax 4,815 5,247 5,544 5,628
Adj. PAT 4,815 5,247 5,544 5,628
Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Total Vol. (nos) 6,075,583 6,245,895 7,007,468 7,724,158
Net Realization/Unit (Rs) 39,121 40,467 40,991 41,997
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 28,635 29,187 29,552 30,002
Other Exp./Unit (Rs) 3,728 4,123 4,110 4,256
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 5,406 5,668 5,843 6,255
Net Profit/Unit (Rs) 3,486 3,377 4,031 4,391
Components/Unit (Rs) 28,628 29,172 29,536 29,979
Emp. Cost (Rs m) 8,209 9,300 10,416 11,468
Advertising (Rs m) 4,687 4,935 5,745 6,974
Depreciation (Rs m) 11,418 11,074 7,124 7,122
Tax Rate (%) 16 26 27 27
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
September 16, 2014 6

7. Automobiles
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
33.6%
50.0%
16.4%
0.0%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
% of Total Coverage
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
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September 16, 2014 7