1. Digital Wars
and platform wars
http://bit.ly/warsbook
Charles Arthur

2. About me
• Technology editor, The Guardian, since 2005
• Author, “Digital Wars: Apple, Google, Microsoft
and the Battle for the Internet”
http://bit.ly/warsbook

3. We’ve had the digital wars
• Google v Microsoft in search
• Apple v Microsoft
in digital music
• Google v Apple v Microsoft
in smartphones
• Google v Apple v Microsoft
in tablets

4. Who won in SEARch?
• in search: emphatically Google
(though that has consequences)
• Google’s share is a monopoly in Europe and (less so)
the US
• swallowed MMI for its patents
but got food poisoning

5. Who won in Music?
Zune introduction

6. And in smartphones?

7. Exponential?

8. Everyone’s connecting
"Global mobile penetration, at >80%,
has surpassed that of electricity"

9. who won in tablets?
• it’s too early to say.

10. The next wars: Platforms
• Windows: once the only platform that mattered
• Smartphones will pass PC installed base in 2013

11. Platforms: what matters?
• Size helps

12. Platforms: More complex
• It’s a matrix rather than a simple graph

13. Platform success depends on...
more £/user
Quadrant Quadrant
of niche-ness of dominance
fewer more
users users
Quadrant Quadrant of
of doom commoditisation
less £/user

14. monetisation matters
• Complicated interplay
between desktop and mobile
• Mobile presently worth less than desktop
• Where do you want to be?
more £/user
Apple (Macs) Apple Office
Windows Phone Google
Windows more
fewer
RIM Twitter users
users
WhatsAppAndroid
Facebook
less £/userGoogle+

15. Platform forecast
• win in hardware/services: get bigger platforms to
target you (inc third-party developers)
• win in software: getting onto more
hardware/services
• mutual win for both: monetise at scale
more £/user
fewer more
users users

16. Thank you
http://bit.ly/warsbook
Charles Arthur