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TED Wish  Update: InSTEDD Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP 2006 TED Wish CEO
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Medical fieldwork in: Colombia, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan,  Bosnia, Zambia,  Katrina, Kenya,  Banda Aceh, Uganda, Turkey, Haiti…  Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP
 
Larry Brilliant’s  PRIZE Wish: ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],was asked to:
We’ve talked with a lot of people United Nations Humanitarian Information Symposium Geneva, November, 2007
A few disease reporting problems we’ve found: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We’ve thought about it… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Laptop from LTC Susanna Roughton, RAMC Physician-Epidemiologist British Royal Army Az Zubair, Iraq - 2003 Our environments are  harsh . Tough environments drive innovation.
Not just harsh. Also REALLY disconnected… Savanakhet village, Laos, 2008
A related question for you…
The Greatest Foreseeable Threat to Global Security? (based on a recent NIC report) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US National Intelligence Council 2020 Project: Mapping the Global Future
Chickens. Domestic fowl are the carriers of  H 5 N 1  avian influenza. 120 million chickens died or were slaughtered in Asia  in early 2004 to halt the spread of that virus. There have now been tens of millions more culled through 2007. It hasn’t worked. 147 out of 418 tigers now have died in Thai zoos from bird flu. The Cambodian human case fatality rate is 100%
From the US National Intelligence Council Report, 2003 “ A global pandemic is the greatest single threat to the global economy… … and so to global security”
Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) 1940 – 2004 Nature  451, 990 - 993 (21 Feb 2008)
Hong Kong:  A single person with SARS arriving in Toronto  infected 483 people, killed 43, and cost Canada $763m.
Economic Impact of Recent Epidemics (12 listed, and all but one zoonotic) Avian Flu, EU $500m 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 $50bn $40bn $30bn $20bn $10bn Estimated costs BSE, UK  $10-13bn Foot & Mouth Disease Taiwan, $5-8bn 1992 1993 1994 1995 Foot-and-Mouth Disease UK $30bn Avian Flu Asia, US, Canada $10bn (2004-now) 2004 BSE, US  $3.5bn BSE, Canada $1.5bn Lyme disease US $2.5bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada… $50bn+ Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m Swine Flu, Netherlands $2.3bn BSE, Japan  1.5bn
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
If you don’t go,  you don’t know. A core thought for us…
The airfield in Banda Aceh:  Infectious bacteria in the mud “off the scale”
After the tsunami in Banda Aceh:  A city leveled, and no way to communicate the needs
Collaboration,  in outbreak containment and humanitarian action,  is THE critical task
InSTEDD Field Lab Participatory ethnography meets natural selection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We learn by failing  fast  and failing  often . In the end, our tools will be:   more robust, more reliable, and easier to use.
California  Urban Search and Rescue  Task Force – 3 Collaboration Testing in the field
Thirsty? Here’s a firehose… Using agile design and early validation for linking people to help GeoBlogging SMS Geo-Chat Emergency Command Center GeoChat GeoForms
Platform Development Strategy Innovate only where we must ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Agile Development Process
Field Lab and Platform Synergy Learning at the edge, building for the future Emerging Requirements Component Integration Design Validation New Features & Services
Collaboration everywhere   “Who’s doing what where” – January 2008
The Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance Consortium Serious  infectious  disease  hotspot.
Requirements from our MBDS countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cambodia
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Health Information Flow in Lao and Cambodia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Upward:  slow and difficult Downward:  slow and rare Horizontal:  only ad hoc observed from the District level down
Some  helpful methods are out there, waiting… Some we’ll have to build
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],GATR   Inflatable  Satellite  Communications
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Solid science is developing around indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Palantir Analytics Corp. Proprietary and Confidential.  No distribution without prior PAC written authorization
And around sensemaking in large data sets
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SMS Microblogging (cell phone + Google Earth) GeoChat
So, after learning all of that,  what would REAL  antiviral software   look like?
InSTEDD Platform Open source applications, services, and frameworks
Big project.  Worthy goal.  And there is a good start already underway.
World Health Organization’s  EWARN   An Early Warning and Response Network ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHO-EWARN  partnership with InSTEDD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Riff
Siam Peng District in Steung Treng Province, Cambodia No internet access, and a computer with EWARN only in the district capital ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],OUTBREAK Siam Pang District Northern Cambodia
Steung Treng Province, Cambodia District EWARN Sites, Diagnostics Lab in Provincial Capital ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Steung Treng Province Northern Cambodia
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Risk Visualization and Simulation User Alerts Contact Tracing  and Network Modeling Time Series Visualization Multiple data streams (structured and unstructured) Data Visualization Alert and Health Events Board Asset Status and Readiness Spatio-Temporal Analysis Remote Sensing Response Signal
Early technical partners in our platform development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Obvious risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
John Francis, PhD UN Goodwill Ambassador on the Environment Planetwalker, and here at  Unusual consultant:  An Ethics Advisor, helping the focus ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
You must take responsibility for what you know. John F. Kennedy, 1962 Humanitarian Technology Review This doesn’t exist yet. We think it needs to.  We’re looking for sponsors.
There is a lot to do. And much at risk.
We’d love to tap the  energy! See us at our display in the Simulcast Lounge  www.InSTEDD.org

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InSTEDD: TED Prize Follow Up

  • 1. TED Wish Update: InSTEDD Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP 2006 TED Wish CEO
  • 2.
  • 3.  
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. We’ve talked with a lot of people United Nations Humanitarian Information Symposium Geneva, November, 2007
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Laptop from LTC Susanna Roughton, RAMC Physician-Epidemiologist British Royal Army Az Zubair, Iraq - 2003 Our environments are harsh . Tough environments drive innovation.
  • 11. Not just harsh. Also REALLY disconnected… Savanakhet village, Laos, 2008
  • 12. A related question for you…
  • 13.
  • 14. Chickens. Domestic fowl are the carriers of H 5 N 1 avian influenza. 120 million chickens died or were slaughtered in Asia in early 2004 to halt the spread of that virus. There have now been tens of millions more culled through 2007. It hasn’t worked. 147 out of 418 tigers now have died in Thai zoos from bird flu. The Cambodian human case fatality rate is 100%
  • 15. From the US National Intelligence Council Report, 2003 “ A global pandemic is the greatest single threat to the global economy… … and so to global security”
  • 16. Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) 1940 – 2004 Nature 451, 990 - 993 (21 Feb 2008)
  • 17. Hong Kong: A single person with SARS arriving in Toronto infected 483 people, killed 43, and cost Canada $763m.
  • 18. Economic Impact of Recent Epidemics (12 listed, and all but one zoonotic) Avian Flu, EU $500m 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 $50bn $40bn $30bn $20bn $10bn Estimated costs BSE, UK $10-13bn Foot & Mouth Disease Taiwan, $5-8bn 1992 1993 1994 1995 Foot-and-Mouth Disease UK $30bn Avian Flu Asia, US, Canada $10bn (2004-now) 2004 BSE, US $3.5bn BSE, Canada $1.5bn Lyme disease US $2.5bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada… $50bn+ Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m Swine Flu, Netherlands $2.3bn BSE, Japan 1.5bn
  • 19.
  • 20. If you don’t go, you don’t know. A core thought for us…
  • 21. The airfield in Banda Aceh: Infectious bacteria in the mud “off the scale”
  • 22. After the tsunami in Banda Aceh: A city leveled, and no way to communicate the needs
  • 23. Collaboration, in outbreak containment and humanitarian action, is THE critical task
  • 24.
  • 25. California Urban Search and Rescue Task Force – 3 Collaboration Testing in the field
  • 26. Thirsty? Here’s a firehose… Using agile design and early validation for linking people to help GeoBlogging SMS Geo-Chat Emergency Command Center GeoChat GeoForms
  • 27.
  • 28. Field Lab and Platform Synergy Learning at the edge, building for the future Emerging Requirements Component Integration Design Validation New Features & Services
  • 29. Collaboration everywhere “Who’s doing what where” – January 2008
  • 30. The Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance Consortium Serious infectious disease hotspot.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. Some helpful methods are out there, waiting… Some we’ll have to build
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.  
  • 38.
  • 39. And around sensemaking in large data sets
  • 40.
  • 41. So, after learning all of that, what would REAL antiviral software look like?
  • 42. InSTEDD Platform Open source applications, services, and frameworks
  • 43. Big project. Worthy goal. And there is a good start already underway.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. You must take responsibility for what you know. John F. Kennedy, 1962 Humanitarian Technology Review This doesn’t exist yet. We think it needs to. We’re looking for sponsors.
  • 53. There is a lot to do. And much at risk.
  • 54. We’d love to tap the energy! See us at our display in the Simulcast Lounge www.InSTEDD.org

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. World Health Organization October 26, 2010
  2. Ability to get results is a function of your skills and who and how you work with others Most people –the social network of TEDsters may be a unique outlier in this sense – get the most help in unexpected situations out of the extended network One of the things we hope to contribute with our directory ‘who’s doing what where’ is use this fact and Help the health and disaster response communities Which is highly geographically mobile, and help them Be more effective and efficient by tightening their social network by location <<give example of someone arriving in SE asia or tsunami – looking for folks based on skills and finding ‘contact of a contact’, and requesting introductions.
  3. Discuss newfluwiki2.com” they do maps by hand and excel spreadsheets Potential Tags should include: I. one is at diary level - just to know which are the diaries devoted to news: the diaries tagged with "news"? II. and then there could be internal tagging as in "**new case**" III. we can have human correct the info on the map Types of Applicable Technologies Geospatial Visualization Biosurveillance Disease Spread Modeling Predictive (and Risk) Modeling Natural Language Processing Resource Allocation and Supply Chain Management Outbreak Management Mass Collaboration Situation Awareness and Decision Support