Mike Shatzkin explores what he thinks will be the main topics that publishers will have to face in 2012.

1. THE BIG DIGITAL
CHANGE ISSUES IN US
PUBLISHING FOR 2012
Mike Shatzkin
IfBookThen, Milan
February 2012
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

2. AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS'
REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL)
• Over 30% of large pub volume and growing
(67% of e, 20-25% of p)
• Threats of shelf space reductions
(bookstores and mass merchants)
• Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions
(i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal)
• Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon
revenues wherever they can
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

3. AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER
KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS
• They know reading patterns
• Ability to offer authors higher royalties,
onsite promotion
• Can build some reach to other channels
(i.e. libraries, other retailers)
• Can offer advances; take authors or push up
what publishers pay
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

4. SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION
(DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...)
• Doubled or more for four straight years
(2007-2010 inclusive)
• New research suggests slowdown of growth
(BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011)
• Verso research shows increase of ebook
resistance
• New devices that enable other activities
could mean less reading
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

5. VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION
IN PRICING
• Agency model has enabled big publishers to
maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99
• Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing
(could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?)
– Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99
– Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points
– Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books
• Reduction in pricing influence of print
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

6. WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE
READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS?
(SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...)
• All consistent success is immersive reading
• Different investment-return scenarios
(additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks)
• App market pricing discouraging
• Potential to change with HTML5 apps and
new ePub 3 specifications
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

7. WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON
OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON-
ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS?
• Self-publishing authors doing it on their own!
• Translators everywhere can sell their
services to publishers anywhere
• US publishers looking for ways to expand
• Promising translations at time of initial deal
could be appealing to authors
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

8. WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A
WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY?
• Scale would seem to require it
• The challenge: economics of reading devices
require also selling the content
• B&N already has extensive relationships with
non-US sources of content
• B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been
most successful competitor to Kindle
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

9. CONTACT
Mike Shatzkin
The Idea Logical Company
info@idealog.com
@MikeShatzkin
The
Idea Logical
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.