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Opinions expressed are those of the author alone

Prof. Ian Phillips
Principal Staff Eng’r,
ARM Ltd
ian.phillips@arm.com
Visiting Prof. at ...

Contribution to Industry
Award 2008

eFutures Future Workshop
British Library, London
4dec13
SlideCast and pdf available via http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/

1

2v1
Electronic Systems Today -

2
Electronic Systems Today -

3
The British Culture of Failure ...
 All UK Electronic Companies failed
 The UK FABs all left or died
 Electronic Innovation is all in America
 Electronic Manufacture is all in China
 Any business in Electronics in the UK


.... is just working-out the remains of failed industries
The UK lost every aspect of the Electronic opportunity
... so investing Tax£ in it today is just a waste of money

 ARM is an interesting exception; but it is ...


Non scalable; Non repeatable; Incomprehensible

... ESCO was created to refute this perception with facts !
4
ESCO Established ...
 The UK Electronic Systems Community ...

 2.9% of Employment; 5.4% of the Economy (~2x productivity!)
 On par with other strategically important industries ...


GDP: Automotive (0.7%), Aerospace (0.4%), Construction (8%)
Creative (3%), Pharma/Bio (0.6%) , Tourism (9%), Universities (2.3%)

 A story of UK Success!

... despite neglect and prejudice!
... We are an Unrecognised, Uncoordinated Community
... with Huge Potential do deliver much-more!
5
ESCO Also Pointed Out ...
 The Strategic Importance of Electronic Systems to the


ongoing health of the UK Economy.
The importance and practicality of establishing International
Mutual Co-Dependence in Electronic Systems Technologies
 That Electronic Systems are actually all global products
 To avoid national dependency, we need to develop our National Capabilities



and their abilities to supply into their life-cycles
The technology and business involved are beyond understanding of most
non-technically educated; but no less viable as a businesses because of this

 The UK is in a surprisingly good place in Electronic Systems today;
but we can lose that if it continues to be neglected here ...

... Recognise and Value the UK ES Community and it will
return the favour many fold.
... But it is a 21c child; it will succeed here ... or elsewhere!
6
The UK Electronic Systems Community
 Electronic System are Human-Level Product whose Functionality


fundamentally rests on the Electronic Technology (ies) beneath.
You are part of the UK Electronic Systems Community, if : You have a UK Footprint (Your UK people are in the UK-ESC)
 You work in some part of the science, technology or technical life-cycle of
Electronic Systems; their methods, components and manufacture.







7

Except their overt Exploitation or direct Maintenance.

Including Fundamental Science, Manufacturing and Tech. Support.
All technologies: Hardware, embedded-software; analogue, digital; optical,
rf; systems, architecture; metrology and equipment; technical support; etc
Your Department if its work otherwise qualifies as Electronic Systems;
though your Industry or Institution is known primarily for something else.
Moore’s Law ...

X

100nm

10um

Transistor/PM (K)

1um

Transistors/Chip (M)

Approximate Process Geometry

10nm

Gordon Moore. Founder of Intel. (1965)

100um

ITRS’99

...
8

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law

x More Functionality on a Si Chip in 20 yrs!
Research within a Thriving Economy
 As this UK Sector is not a Basket Case; it matters that it has an



working access to Science and Technology that it needs ...
Before a company commences actual Product Design ...
... it must know that it can succeed!
It needs Knowledge, and Installed Capabilities in all of the many
domains that it will traverse en-route to a Successful Product
 Industrial Research identifies and provides answers to these issues ...




From the Known-Set and Unknown-Set (1-3yr)

 How others do it (Conferences, published papers, espionage, etc)
 Specialist Tools and Training
 Licence, Purchase, Employ (People) or Acquire (Viable, small businesses)
It needs to see beyond this ...




Primarily from the Unknown-Set (3-5yr)
Fundamental Research (Science ... Predictable, useful fundamentals)

... But 5+ years is beyond its threshold of caring!
9
Our Orthogonal Motivations





Their-Market ; not A-Market (ie not defined by others)
Output is Commercially Viable Product
Industries can’t change their spots overnight
Charity and Society is a nice concept






NOT Commercial objectives
Output is Science (Tending towards Technology)
Prof’s can’t change their spots overnight
Exploitation is a messy distraction

...There is a Chasm of understanding between all three groups
10
There are Markets and Markets
 Gov. Says: “Societies Challenges are a Great Market Opportunity”





Always being told this; but it is not strictly true ...
The biggest actual markets are not been predicted by Governments
Though driven by Societal need, the biggest market developments today
(Internet, Tablets and IoT) are not aligned with Societies Challenges!
They will be where Gov. spends lots of money to address Market Failure




where there’s money there is opportunity
but the best “Business Opportunities” will probably occur in a myriad of crosscutting technologies that are *also* applicable to Societies Challenges.

... These are Vectors of Market Direction; Business chooses its own!

 Similarly Gov. are not the best people to direct research!



But alas, they hold your Purse-Strings (In case you hadn’t noticed!)
So now we have to help them see that what you do is an important part
of the UK’s ES Ecosystem.
... And to do that we (both) have to understand more about each other!
11
Markets provide the Business Opportunities
3rd Era

Millions of Units

Computing as part
of our lives

2nd Era
Broad-based computing
for specific tasks

1st Era
Select work
tasks

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

... Remember; the End-Customer actually funds the whole life-cycle.
12
ARM in the Electronic Systems Market

150+
billion

CPUs cumulative
by 2020

 8.7B CPUs shipped in 2012 (Growing 20%pa.pa)
 75% of the things connected to the
Internet today are ARM Powered! Gartner

40+
billion

CPUs to date
1998
13

http://www.arm.com/

2012

2020
The Chasm twixt Research and Innovation

Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science

Technology
Technology
Technology

Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability

Gaps



Gaps



Research <= Chasm => Innovation (Product)
 Implies that Research outcomes become a Product when they are ‘developed’ ... WRONG
 The obvious ‘cure’; drive your national Research base closer to national Exploitation base
 The truth is more complex; and so is the ‘cure’ ...
Science <= Gap => Technology <= Gap => Capability <= Gap => Product
 Science – Established Predictable Fundamental Behaviour
 Technology – Something Useful in the creation or reproduction of a Product
 Capability – Installed Technology (Ready for mission-critical use)
 Product – Something that a Customer exchanges for his/her actual money
In reality Single-Sciences seldom map to Single-Products ...

Gaps



Product

... And Single-Products inevitably depend on Many-Sciences
14
Packing ‘Technology’ into an iCon
Analogue and Digital Design
Embedded Software
Mechanics, Plastics and Glass
Micro-Machines (MEMs)
Displays and Transducers
Robotics and Test
Knowledge and Know-How
Research, Education and Training
Components, Sub-Systems and Systems;
Design, Assembly and Manufacture
Metrology, Methodology and Tools
... Involving Many Specialist Businesses
... Round and Round the World
...Not-Least from The UK

15


Gaps

Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability

Product

Industry ...








Technology
Technology
Technology

Gaps

Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science

Gaps

The Chasm twixt Research and Innovation

Avoids gaps by using Known Sci/Tech/Cap as far as possible
Only does gap-filling if doing so brings quantifiable benefit to the Product
Avoids gaps to-the-left (Too far from quantifiable return)
Innovation is about using what you already know how to do (no gaps!)

 aka (20c) “Sweat your assets”
Academia ...





Anticipate the best potential Business uses of a Science; whatever and wherever
Quantify the Value of a Science when used in particular Product life-cycle
Establish the Business contacts; and bridge the early-stage gaps for its evaluation

... Look for Order of Magnitude improvement over the status-quo!
16
Universities need Industry ...
 To guide the Direction and Exploitation of research programs ...

 Not necessarily for those specific Businesses' interests.
 Nor necessarily for UK Industries
 To help fund the research ...
 100% funded (always the favourite)
 Part-Sponsored (eg: iCASE or other studentship scheme)
 Support for National Funding (eg: Support for EPSRC Responsive proposals)
 Strategic Relationship values (ie: Association with a certain business)
 Remember ...
 >95%1 of Exploitation opportunities are outside the UK
 Don’t over-hype what you have (It is usually Science =>Technology)
 Industry is always short-sighted (It can misdirect, mislead or misuse you)
 Your local GDP contribution is ∝ to the people you employ locally
... Nothing wrong with maximising the UK-GDP component
1: Based on UK% of global GDP
17
... Industry needs Universities
 To guide Industrial Expectations of emerging science

 Industry doesn’t always know where the science/technology is going
 In the portfolio providing Answers ahead of its Product needs ...
 Researching the Known and Unknown Sets ...
 Purchase, Licence, Contract ..for.. Tools, Methods, Objects
 Educate, Build, Acquire, Employ ..for.. Business, Know-How and Knowledge
-------------------------------------

 In-House ..for.. Strategic technology and short-term needs (Few/££££)
 Partnering ..for.. Market building and less-strategic technology (Med/££)
 Basic ..for.. Longer-term, broad-issues, non-strategic technology (Lots/£)
 Remember ...
 The closer to product the more valuable the service
 That 99% of Universities are outside the UK (Answers matter, not sources)
 That Industry also contributes to GDP by its Employment (local and global)
... Nothing wrong with maximising the UK-GDP component
18
... Industry also needs Universities
 To provide Education of and for its Employees
 First Degrees (inc Masters and Doctorates) get you going ...



They give you the Language and the Context for starting a Career
But as Careers develop, people need to be trained and re-trained to
undertake the, work expected of them/the career path they chose

 Universities have the opportunity to provide




Initial training
Leading-Edge postgraduate training, aligned with their Research
Can be via employment pathways or courses



Leaving Commercial enterprises to look after the mid-ground

 Industry needs people who can do ‘the work’

 Formal qualifications are not a prerequisite
 Education only increases the probability that you will be suited to a new role
... Engineering is a life of challenge and a life of learning; enjoy!

19
Electronic Systems COmmunity

 You ARE an Important Part of this UK Community
 ESCO gives US ... Identity, Societal Value, Community and Voice
 The new ESCO Council – Provides an Executive-Level Steering group
 The new ESCO Executive – Provides the Delivery-Vehicle
 Working Groups - Will be formed to address issues
... You will all have plenty of opportunity to participate

20

http://www.esco.org.uk/
Conclusions
 The UK has a strong and vibrant Electronics Systems Community




Employing ~850k people, in ~35,000 businesses and contributing ~5% to UK GDP.
Many tales of Successful Evolution from their 20c predecessors (dinosaurs)
Believe it ... You are a significant part of it!

 Electronic Systems Community (ESCO)


Gives us an Identity but also Societal Value, Community and Voice




The Council and the Executive are just up and running
Your opportunity to get involved will be coming soon



For Your and the Communities sake ... Grasp it with both hands

 Because UK-ES is not a Basket Case it matters that it Develops




We must demonstrate (to Gov) that Industry needs Academia and vice-versa
And we must make the relationship work (For the benefit of the UK)
To do that, we must all work to understand ...



Each other

..and..

The nature and life-cycle of Products

... Based on a Culture of Success! (Difficult for reticent Brits)
21
00

22

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A Sucess Culture for the UK Electronics Systems Community

  • 1. Opinions expressed are those of the author alone Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r, ARM Ltd ian.phillips@arm.com Visiting Prof. at ... Contribution to Industry Award 2008 eFutures Future Workshop British Library, London 4dec13 SlideCast and pdf available via http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/ 1 2v1
  • 4. The British Culture of Failure ...  All UK Electronic Companies failed  The UK FABs all left or died  Electronic Innovation is all in America  Electronic Manufacture is all in China  Any business in Electronics in the UK  .... is just working-out the remains of failed industries The UK lost every aspect of the Electronic opportunity ... so investing Tax£ in it today is just a waste of money  ARM is an interesting exception; but it is ...  Non scalable; Non repeatable; Incomprehensible ... ESCO was created to refute this perception with facts ! 4
  • 5. ESCO Established ...  The UK Electronic Systems Community ...  2.9% of Employment; 5.4% of the Economy (~2x productivity!)  On par with other strategically important industries ...  GDP: Automotive (0.7%), Aerospace (0.4%), Construction (8%) Creative (3%), Pharma/Bio (0.6%) , Tourism (9%), Universities (2.3%)  A story of UK Success! ... despite neglect and prejudice! ... We are an Unrecognised, Uncoordinated Community ... with Huge Potential do deliver much-more! 5
  • 6. ESCO Also Pointed Out ...  The Strategic Importance of Electronic Systems to the  ongoing health of the UK Economy. The importance and practicality of establishing International Mutual Co-Dependence in Electronic Systems Technologies  That Electronic Systems are actually all global products  To avoid national dependency, we need to develop our National Capabilities  and their abilities to supply into their life-cycles The technology and business involved are beyond understanding of most non-technically educated; but no less viable as a businesses because of this  The UK is in a surprisingly good place in Electronic Systems today; but we can lose that if it continues to be neglected here ... ... Recognise and Value the UK ES Community and it will return the favour many fold. ... But it is a 21c child; it will succeed here ... or elsewhere! 6
  • 7. The UK Electronic Systems Community  Electronic System are Human-Level Product whose Functionality  fundamentally rests on the Electronic Technology (ies) beneath. You are part of the UK Electronic Systems Community, if : You have a UK Footprint (Your UK people are in the UK-ESC)  You work in some part of the science, technology or technical life-cycle of Electronic Systems; their methods, components and manufacture.     7 Except their overt Exploitation or direct Maintenance. Including Fundamental Science, Manufacturing and Tech. Support. All technologies: Hardware, embedded-software; analogue, digital; optical, rf; systems, architecture; metrology and equipment; technical support; etc Your Department if its work otherwise qualifies as Electronic Systems; though your Industry or Institution is known primarily for something else.
  • 8. Moore’s Law ... X 100nm 10um Transistor/PM (K) 1um Transistors/Chip (M) Approximate Process Geometry 10nm Gordon Moore. Founder of Intel. (1965) 100um ITRS’99 ... 8 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law x More Functionality on a Si Chip in 20 yrs!
  • 9. Research within a Thriving Economy  As this UK Sector is not a Basket Case; it matters that it has an  working access to Science and Technology that it needs ... Before a company commences actual Product Design ... ... it must know that it can succeed! It needs Knowledge, and Installed Capabilities in all of the many domains that it will traverse en-route to a Successful Product  Industrial Research identifies and provides answers to these issues ...   From the Known-Set and Unknown-Set (1-3yr)  How others do it (Conferences, published papers, espionage, etc)  Specialist Tools and Training  Licence, Purchase, Employ (People) or Acquire (Viable, small businesses) It needs to see beyond this ...   Primarily from the Unknown-Set (3-5yr) Fundamental Research (Science ... Predictable, useful fundamentals) ... But 5+ years is beyond its threshold of caring! 9
  • 10. Our Orthogonal Motivations     Their-Market ; not A-Market (ie not defined by others) Output is Commercially Viable Product Industries can’t change their spots overnight Charity and Society is a nice concept     NOT Commercial objectives Output is Science (Tending towards Technology) Prof’s can’t change their spots overnight Exploitation is a messy distraction ...There is a Chasm of understanding between all three groups 10
  • 11. There are Markets and Markets  Gov. Says: “Societies Challenges are a Great Market Opportunity”     Always being told this; but it is not strictly true ... The biggest actual markets are not been predicted by Governments Though driven by Societal need, the biggest market developments today (Internet, Tablets and IoT) are not aligned with Societies Challenges! They will be where Gov. spends lots of money to address Market Failure   where there’s money there is opportunity but the best “Business Opportunities” will probably occur in a myriad of crosscutting technologies that are *also* applicable to Societies Challenges. ... These are Vectors of Market Direction; Business chooses its own!  Similarly Gov. are not the best people to direct research!   But alas, they hold your Purse-Strings (In case you hadn’t noticed!) So now we have to help them see that what you do is an important part of the UK’s ES Ecosystem. ... And to do that we (both) have to understand more about each other! 11
  • 12. Markets provide the Business Opportunities 3rd Era Millions of Units Computing as part of our lives 2nd Era Broad-based computing for specific tasks 1st Era Select work tasks 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 ... Remember; the End-Customer actually funds the whole life-cycle. 12
  • 13. ARM in the Electronic Systems Market 150+ billion CPUs cumulative by 2020  8.7B CPUs shipped in 2012 (Growing 20%pa.pa)  75% of the things connected to the Internet today are ARM Powered! Gartner 40+ billion CPUs to date 1998 13 http://www.arm.com/ 2012 2020
  • 14. The Chasm twixt Research and Innovation Science Science Science Science Science Science Science Technology Technology Technology Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Gaps  Gaps  Research <= Chasm => Innovation (Product)  Implies that Research outcomes become a Product when they are ‘developed’ ... WRONG  The obvious ‘cure’; drive your national Research base closer to national Exploitation base  The truth is more complex; and so is the ‘cure’ ... Science <= Gap => Technology <= Gap => Capability <= Gap => Product  Science – Established Predictable Fundamental Behaviour  Technology – Something Useful in the creation or reproduction of a Product  Capability – Installed Technology (Ready for mission-critical use)  Product – Something that a Customer exchanges for his/her actual money In reality Single-Sciences seldom map to Single-Products ... Gaps  Product ... And Single-Products inevitably depend on Many-Sciences 14
  • 15. Packing ‘Technology’ into an iCon Analogue and Digital Design Embedded Software Mechanics, Plastics and Glass Micro-Machines (MEMs) Displays and Transducers Robotics and Test Knowledge and Know-How Research, Education and Training Components, Sub-Systems and Systems; Design, Assembly and Manufacture Metrology, Methodology and Tools ... Involving Many Specialist Businesses ... Round and Round the World ...Not-Least from The UK 15
  • 16.  Gaps Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Product Industry ...      Technology Technology Technology Gaps Science Science Science Science Science Science Science Gaps The Chasm twixt Research and Innovation Avoids gaps by using Known Sci/Tech/Cap as far as possible Only does gap-filling if doing so brings quantifiable benefit to the Product Avoids gaps to-the-left (Too far from quantifiable return) Innovation is about using what you already know how to do (no gaps!)  aka (20c) “Sweat your assets” Academia ...    Anticipate the best potential Business uses of a Science; whatever and wherever Quantify the Value of a Science when used in particular Product life-cycle Establish the Business contacts; and bridge the early-stage gaps for its evaluation ... Look for Order of Magnitude improvement over the status-quo! 16
  • 17. Universities need Industry ...  To guide the Direction and Exploitation of research programs ...  Not necessarily for those specific Businesses' interests.  Nor necessarily for UK Industries  To help fund the research ...  100% funded (always the favourite)  Part-Sponsored (eg: iCASE or other studentship scheme)  Support for National Funding (eg: Support for EPSRC Responsive proposals)  Strategic Relationship values (ie: Association with a certain business)  Remember ...  >95%1 of Exploitation opportunities are outside the UK  Don’t over-hype what you have (It is usually Science =>Technology)  Industry is always short-sighted (It can misdirect, mislead or misuse you)  Your local GDP contribution is ∝ to the people you employ locally ... Nothing wrong with maximising the UK-GDP component 1: Based on UK% of global GDP 17
  • 18. ... Industry needs Universities  To guide Industrial Expectations of emerging science  Industry doesn’t always know where the science/technology is going  In the portfolio providing Answers ahead of its Product needs ...  Researching the Known and Unknown Sets ...  Purchase, Licence, Contract ..for.. Tools, Methods, Objects  Educate, Build, Acquire, Employ ..for.. Business, Know-How and Knowledge -------------------------------------  In-House ..for.. Strategic technology and short-term needs (Few/££££)  Partnering ..for.. Market building and less-strategic technology (Med/££)  Basic ..for.. Longer-term, broad-issues, non-strategic technology (Lots/£)  Remember ...  The closer to product the more valuable the service  That 99% of Universities are outside the UK (Answers matter, not sources)  That Industry also contributes to GDP by its Employment (local and global) ... Nothing wrong with maximising the UK-GDP component 18
  • 19. ... Industry also needs Universities  To provide Education of and for its Employees  First Degrees (inc Masters and Doctorates) get you going ...   They give you the Language and the Context for starting a Career But as Careers develop, people need to be trained and re-trained to undertake the, work expected of them/the career path they chose  Universities have the opportunity to provide    Initial training Leading-Edge postgraduate training, aligned with their Research Can be via employment pathways or courses  Leaving Commercial enterprises to look after the mid-ground  Industry needs people who can do ‘the work’  Formal qualifications are not a prerequisite  Education only increases the probability that you will be suited to a new role ... Engineering is a life of challenge and a life of learning; enjoy! 19
  • 20. Electronic Systems COmmunity  You ARE an Important Part of this UK Community  ESCO gives US ... Identity, Societal Value, Community and Voice  The new ESCO Council – Provides an Executive-Level Steering group  The new ESCO Executive – Provides the Delivery-Vehicle  Working Groups - Will be formed to address issues ... You will all have plenty of opportunity to participate 20 http://www.esco.org.uk/
  • 21. Conclusions  The UK has a strong and vibrant Electronics Systems Community    Employing ~850k people, in ~35,000 businesses and contributing ~5% to UK GDP. Many tales of Successful Evolution from their 20c predecessors (dinosaurs) Believe it ... You are a significant part of it!  Electronic Systems Community (ESCO)  Gives us an Identity but also Societal Value, Community and Voice   The Council and the Executive are just up and running Your opportunity to get involved will be coming soon  For Your and the Communities sake ... Grasp it with both hands  Because UK-ES is not a Basket Case it matters that it Develops    We must demonstrate (to Gov) that Industry needs Academia and vice-versa And we must make the relationship work (For the benefit of the UK) To do that, we must all work to understand ...  Each other ..and.. The nature and life-cycle of Products ... Based on a Culture of Success! (Difficult for reticent Brits) 21
  • 22. 00 22