Presented by Vladimir Smakhtin at the Global Water Systems Project Conference: Water in the Anthropocene, May 21-24 in Bonn Germany.

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Water for a food-secure world
MANAGING VARIABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES IN
RIVER BASINS FOR ENHANCED FOOD AND
LIVELIHOODS SECURITY
Smakhtin, V., Pavelic, P., McCartney, M., Amarnath, G., Eriyagama, N.,
Bharati, L., Cai, X.
International Water Management Institute
Sri Lanka – Laos – Nepal –South Africa
GWSP Conference: Water in the Anthropocene. May 2013. Bonn, Germany

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TOO MUCH…TOO LITTLE…

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Variability increases with climate change
Source: Dartmouth Flood
Observatory
Variability increases water scarcity
Variability has important positive implications
Variability determines flood risk and damages
FACETS OF WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY

4. RRR
IrrigationRainfed
Basins
RRR
IrrigationRainfed
Information
Nile
Volta, Niger
Andes
Zambezi, Limpopo
Mekong
Ganges
Indus
Amu Darya
Syr Darya
Tigris, Euphrates
VARIABILITY MANAGEMENT AS A FOCAL RESEARCH
AREA OF THE WLE PROGRAM
Research Areas:
• Variability Management
• Resource Allocation and Benefit Sharing
• Water-Energy-Food nexus in Basins
• Water Accounting

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RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
• Technical and economic design and appraisal of diverse water storage
“portfolios”
• Quantifying and considering ecosystem services of natural storage
“infrastructure” in basin development
• Detailed characterization and mapping of flood and drought risks and
hot spots
• Exploring underground solutions for conjunctive management of
floods and droughts in a same basin

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WATER STORAGE CONTINUUM

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EVALUATING STORAGE OPTIONS
Storage – Drought Deficit Index (how much of the long-
term annual hydrological drought deficit is satisfied by
the existing large storage capacity in a county)
Livestock storage need (based on
livestock density per cell, poverty
levels, water availability, etc)

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EVALUATING REGULATING ROLE OF NATURAL STORAGE
(example - wetlands in Zambezi basin)

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AGRICULTURE;
PAGE (2005)
POPULATION
CIESIN - 2010
FLOOD EXPOSED
GDP
WB, 2010
• Globally - 90 grid cells of 100 km with catastrophic flood occurrence > 5,
during 1900-2010
• Damage analysis
ANALYSING FLOOD HOT SPOTS AND FLOOD MAPPING

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ANALYSING FLOODING HOT SPOTS AND FLOOD MAPPING
Ganges Basin

11. ANALYSING FLOODING HOT SPOTS AND FLOOD MAPPING
Flooded area (2000 – 2011)
2010
2010
8-days maps of inundation extent
Annual maps of maximum inundation

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CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Current Situation – Dry Season

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CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Current Situation – Wet Season

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CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I);
Wet season

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CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I);
Dry season

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CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
UTF-I in plan view

17. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand
Source: DFO
Land Use Regular Flooding Alluvium aquifers

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CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand
• Harvest water only exceptionally wet years. 25% of the MAR is harvestable
• 100 km2 dedicated land to flood harvesting needed (< 1% of the Basin area)
• Additional 270,000 ha of irrigation possible
• $150 mill / year - income to smallholder farmers
• Cost < $ 1 Bill. Payback time – under 7 years
• No analogs so far exist
• Scaling up this solution to SA and SEA; needs:
– Detailed design (should be as clear as the current design of surface reservoirs)
– Identification of areas in a larger region that are suitable for piloting (flood hot
spots, hydrogeology, etc)
– Several pilot experiments

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CONCLUSIONS
• Water resources Variability is a primary issue in basin water
resources planning and management globally
• Management of temporal Variability should consider a variety
of storage options and their combinations, large and small,
man-made and natural ones
• Understanding and characterization of Variability hot spots
may help target related research and investments
• Subsurface solutions for water resources Variability
management may have significant potential for flood and
drought mitigation, increasing irrigation water availability and
improving livelihoods. This potential is still to be realized

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THANK YOU !