Securing Water for Food, Livelihoods and Ecosystems to face Climate Change Smakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., Molden, D, Hoanh C., Noble, A., Giordano, M., McCartney, M., Shah, T. International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka

1. SECURING WATER FOR FOOD, LIVELIHOODS
AND ECOSYSTEMS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGE
Smakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., Molden, D, Hoanh C.,
Noble, A., Giordano, M., McCartney, M., Shah, T.
International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions.
10-12 March 2009. Copenhagen, Denmark

2. WATER FOR AGRICULTURE RESEARCH IN
THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
GCMs
Basin water Agricultural Adaptive water
impacts impacts management
CC-related
policies
• What are the impacts of climate change on water at global, river
basin and farm scales?
• What are water implications of climate mitigation measures?
• What are the most promising measures in water management to
minimize agricultural vulnerability to climate change ?
• What water related investments are needed and where?

3. WATER SCARCITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

4. PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AT
SMALLER SCALES-
Blue Nile, Ethiopia
Precipitation: Runoff: Q90:
0 to 20% increase -15 to +25% change -25 to +60% change
• climate in the basin may become wetter and warmer in 2050s
• low flows are likely to become higher
• droughts are likely to become less frequent and severe

5. MAKING STORAGE “SMARTER” –
storage continuum
SUBSURFACE SURFACE ACCESS
Increasing environmental and social cost
Increasing complexity of management
Increasing capital costs
dam outlets,
Reservoirs pumps,
off-take towers
small large
Direct,
Ponds and Tanks Buckets, pumps
Boreholes,
Aquifers deep /shallow
wells, etc
deep shallow
Soil Moisture Planting crops
Natural wetlands All of the above
Increasing resilience Increasing resilience

6. EVALUATING CC ADAPTATION OPTIONS –
the case of groundwater in India
Groundwater use in Asia Climate change and water storage alternatives
Measurable criteria Small Large Managed
India Surface Dams Aquifers
Storage
Water where needed 3 2 5
Water when needed 1 2 5
Level of water control 1 2 5
USA
Non-beneficial losses –e.g. -4 -2 -1
China evaporation
Bang., Pak Protection against a single 1 2 5
annual drought
W. Europe
Protection against -1 1 4
VN, SL
successive droughts
Ease of recovery during 5 4 3
monsoon
Other

7. EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE POLICIES- the case of biofuels
• For all national biofuels’ plans to be
implemented, 30 mill ha more land and 180
km3 more water will be necessary globally
• Some Individual countries (e.g. China and
India) will not meet food and biofuel water
demand
• Is it ethical to use crops to produce energy
when 860 mill people are undernourished?

8. “USING” CLIMATE CHANGE TO HELP SOLVE
OLD PROBLEMS-
data collection and sharing
• Observed hydrological data in the world are insufficient to meet climate
cahnge challenges
• Many countries and regions remain poorly gauged
• Data collection networks decline
• Access to already collected data is limited
Example of declining networks Only 20 out 170 WMO member states share data
9000
8000
USA
7000
M.Norris, USGS
Number of Flow Stations
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
2200 flow stations closed in 1980-2005
1000
many had 30+ years of record
0
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Years

9. CONCLUSIONS
• Understanding of and adapting to existing climate variability is critical
for adaptation to future climates
• Quantification of local climate change impacts is imperative for the
design of adaptation measures. There may be potential beneficiaries of
climate change too
• climate change brings back to the agenda conventional water
management measures, like storage, but forces to re-think them as
adaptation options
• climate change -related interventions, like buofuels, may have
significant implications for agriculture and water management. They
need to be evaluated
• climate change may be a new context which facilitate the solution old
problems in the water sector, like data sharing.