This presentation summarizes the events and outcome of COP17 in Durban, South Africa.

1. Report on Durban COP17 The 6 th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change Kyoto and Beyond www.isciences.com January 31, 2012

3. Contents

4. COP 17 Overview COP17 was held in Durban, South Africa from Nov. 28 to Dec. 11, 2011* with 194 participating nations. The unpredictable COP17 began with a lack of optimism due to high stakes – the future of the Kyoto Protocol , of the UN process, and of the Green Climate Fund . The lack of cooperation between countries created moods described as “sour.” “ Given the urgency, governments need to strive to find solutions here in Durban. Change and solution are always possible. ” – Jacob Zuma Click here to read Zuma’s opening address * S cheduled to conclude Dec. 9, a series of disputes caused a temporary suspension, making it the longest COP on record, lasting 36 hours beyond schedule. South Africa’s President, Jacob Zuma, opened the talks insisting COP17 must not fail. Image credit: http://www.cop17-cmp7/durban.com

6. COP 17 Overview The disagreements caused a temporary suspension of the talks. It was not until the final hours, nearly a day and a half over schedule, that an agreement was reached. In Durban controversy emerged between developed and developing countries as groups discussed divisive topics. During early stages of the talks the EU proposed a road map for future agreement but disputes continued, causing Zuma and COP17 Chair, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, to urge nations to find a balance by thinking beyond national interests. “ Developed countries… built their economies on dirty energy. So they’re chiefly responsible for the greenhouse gases … Yet the worst of the climate change impacts are being felt in least developed countries.” – Greenpeace Africa Controversy Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

8. COP 17 Overview Image credits: Figueres, Zuma, Hedegaard and Mashabane: Wikimedia Commons; Natajan: http://smehorizon.sulekha.com/ Important Players Christiana Figueres , chair of the UNFCCC, strove for success throughout COP17. She believes the outcome is insufficient but is an important next step. “ There is no Plan B, just as there is no Planet B.” Jacob Zuma , President of South Africa, opened up the conference stating that nothing was impossible. He urged nations to put aside domestic interests and instilled urgency to take action. “ In the developing world and Africa, climate change is a matter of life and death.” Connie Hedegaard , European Union Climate Change Commissioner, facilitated a union between the EU and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) to push for a legally binding agreement. “… it is not enough to save the process. We also need to save the climate.” Maite Nkoana-Mashabane , Elected Chair of COP17, entered into COP17 making promises for success. When disagreements stalled the talks, Mashabane called for a suspension and a redraft. “ The decisions that we have taken here are truly historical.” Jayanthi Natajan , India ’s Environment Minister, challenged rich countries to ratify a 2 nd commitment period and make promised payments to developing countries before negotiating a new deal. “ It is time that the developed countries stepped up to fulfill their part of the legal commitment.”

10. Other Decisions Adopted at COP17 View official text of decisions adopted by COP17 and CMP7: http://unfccc.int/2860.php However, action on REDD+ was suspended until COP18.

11. Action at the Conference Prior to the start of COP17, rumors circulated about possible protests during the meeting causing Mashabane to heighten security. Another protest known as “Occupy COP17” consisted of SIDS, environmental activists, and youth delegates who protested that the delay in climate change action would mean death in Africa. One protest targeted a permitted, peaceful march. Protestors disguised as volunteers “physically threatened and attacked activists.” In yet another protest Chief of Greenpeace Kumi Naidoo was escorted from the venue in handcuffs after leading a march on the main plenary session. Naidoo ’s aim was to inject some urgency into the talks. “ I’ve stopped settling for what is deemed ‘politically feasible’ by obstructionists and started asking for what is morally required and scientifically necessary.”– Middlebury College student, Abigail Borah, after being ushered out of the convention for interrupting a speech by the lead US negotiator. Protests Image credit: Erin Conway – globalpost.com Image credit: twitter.com/OccupyCOP17

12. Action at the Conference Country Dynamics – Developed versus Developing Representatives from developing countries stressed that developed countries were not taking climate change seriously as an international issue. Developing countries felt urgency for results at COP17 as, for many of these countries, climate change has become a significant threat. “ Durban could be where the greatest crime against humanity is committed. The blind greed and self-interest of developed countries could literally pass a death sentence to the people of Africa. ” – Nnimmo Bassey, chair of Friends of Earth International A split in opinions on major issues emerged between developed and developing countries. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

13. Action at the Conference Many attendants felt the two biggest global emitters, the US and China, were impeding negotiations with a “ ping-pong game. ” Initially, neither country would commit to legally binding reductions. A stand-off developed regarding who would concede first. China eventually hinted at readiness to commit to a legally binding agreement, but many were skeptical about the country’s meaning of “legally binding.” The US did not follow suit, and many felt it was held back by domestic politics where climate change is a controversial issue. Connie Hedegaard noted that the two were taking on “an almost unbearable responsibility” since the consequences of inaction are “catastrophic.” Country Dynamics – China and the US Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

14. Action at the Conference It is estimated that by 2025, 10% of the population of Comoros will be displaced by rising sea levels and over $1 billion worth of infrastructure will be destroyed. These nations advocated for the continuation of the Protocol, with the addition of the most prominent developing nations being bound by reductions. The EU teamed with LDCs and AOSIS to push key players towards a successful outcome. This coalition helped dispense with the “firewall” between developed and developing nations. LDCs and SIDS pushed for limiting temperature rise to 1.5  C. Karl Hood, chairman of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), stated that accepting anything higher would be accepting “total annihilation.” The negotiations were especially significant for Least Developed Countries (LCDs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), many of whom are already experiencing the effects of climate change. Country Dynamics – LCDs and SIDS Image credit: http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/comoros.htm

15. Action at the Conference Country Dynamics – Canada, Japan, and Russia “ I regret Canada’s withdrawal and am surprised over its timing.” – Christiana Figueres * Article 27 of the Protocol allows any country to withdraw three years after the Protocol is in force. Canada , accounting for 1.8% of global emissions, withdrew from the Protocol during COP17*. Canada had committed to reducing emissions 6% by 2012, but actual emissions have risen by 30% subjecting it to penalty fees of $14 billion for failing to meet the target. Image credits: Canada: virtualamericas.net, Japan: cires.colorado.edu, Russia: vygotsky.ced.appstate.edu Emissions data: http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=160299 Japan , accounting for 4% of global emissions, refused to sign on to a 2 nd commitment. “The Kyoto Protocol is not the right path," chief Japanese climate envoy Masahiko Horie said in Durban. Japan would consider a new global deal if the framework was all-inclusive. Russia , accounting for 5.67% of global emissions, was the only country to speak in full support of Canada ’s withdrawal from the Protocol. Like Japan, Russia also refused to support a 2 nd commitment period.

16. Action at the Conference The high level of disagreement during the talks combined with backlash about the proposed deal caused the temporary suspension of COP17. Disagreement Forces a Suspension On Friday Dec. 9 Mashabane suspended talks, demanding a redraft of Platform language. This was a gambit. If agreement was not reached COP17 would be a total failure. The crux of the dispute was how binding the legal wording would be in an eventual agreement. The current draft spoke of a "legal framework." SIDS, LDCs, and EU complained that this lacked ambition and committed parties to nothing . Developed vs Developing EU, SIDS, LDCs Backlash COP17 Temporarily Suspended

18. Action at the Conference Mashabane noted their disappointment, then resumed the COP17 session to adopt the decisions without further amendment. Consensus moved the “Durban package” to final adoption. The Final Hours – Questioning the Process Mashabane ’s “take it or leave it” proposition was not embraced by all. Some expressed concern that the decisions lacked transparency and inclusivity, therefore not supporting the multilateral process. There was disappointment from some developing countries that their amendments were not included in the package of decisions. “ I have been very patient in this room listening to developed countries putting ideas forward… and then developing country parties are not allowed to talk about what they think about this future we are heading to... So can you explain please what stage of democracy in this process we are in?” – Claudia Caldera, Venezuela’s Climate Envoy

19. Opinions on the Outcome http://www.rtcc.org/policy/speaking-out-on-durban-cop17-in-quotes/ Positive The agreements at COP17 “represented an important advance in the work of climate change.” – Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary General “ The outcome at Durban is a coup for Africa. Issues that had taken so long to resolve have been resolved on our soil.” – Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa “ Very, very pleased. It’s in the upper range of what we hoped for. We’re pleased both with the substantive outcome and also the agreement on this process.” – Erik Solheim, Norway’s Climate Change Minister “ We’re happy that this major success was achieved, despite so many different points of view.” – Jayanthi Natarajan, Indian Environment Minister Negative Regarding COP16 promises made on limiting global temperature rise to 2  C: “Here in Durban, they have utterly failed to live up to that promise.” – Jim Leape, Head of WWF International “ Delaying real action until 2020 is a crime of global proportions. ” - Nnimmo Bassey, Chair of Friends of the Earth International “ The deal that has been done in Durban is not good for the future of the planet, or the poorest and most vulnerable people. Negotiators have sent a message to the world’s hungry: ‘Let them eat carbon’.” – Oxfam statement “ We shouldn’t be under any illusion – the outcome of Durban leaves us with the prospect of being legally bound to a world of 4  C warming.” – Keith Allottt, Head of Climate Change, WWF UK

21. Climate Clock Keeps Ticking And, NASA climatologist James Hansen states that even 2 degrees is too much. This graph created by CAT shows the “best estimate” of the effects of the current reduction pledges. “ The ultimate objective of the Convention … is … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change… – Article 2, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992 COP17 ’s outcome falls short of what is required to have even a 50/50 chance of capping global temperature rise at 2 degrees.

23. Conclusion “ Let’s not get trapped in a Catch-22 – business waiting for government, government waiting for business. Business has plenty to go on – the megatrend is clear. We must decarbonize our economy.” – Christiana Figueres, Oct. 2011 Though developments in Durban push towards global alignment, the new paradigm does not preclude and may be better suited to support, regional coalitions that advance UNFCCC targets using different approaches . “ Kyoto and Beyond” will keep you informed as these important events continue to unfold. The Durban Platform represents a significant departure from prior treaties: both developed and developing countries must reduce emissions . However, confidence in the multilateral climate treaty process remains low and progress remains slow. Meanwhile, society is evolving its own responses. Private sector carbon-neutrality initiatives, shifts in insurance and investment sectors, and societal adaptation will surely influence the future multilateral process. Whether these changes will be adequate and soon enough to avoid “dangerous interference with the climate system” is the big question.

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27. Sources Toyne, Paul. "COP17: Figueres Makes an Emotional Plea for the Low-carbon Economy." The Guardian UK . 2 Dec. 2011. Web. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/cop17-christina-figueres-durban?newsfeed=true Vidal, John, and Fiona Harvey. "Connie Hedegaard Puts Pressure on China, US and India." Green Wise . 9 Dec. 2011. Web. http://www.greenwisebusiness.co.uk/news/connie-hedegaard-puts-pressure-on-china-us-and-india-2876.aspx Vidal, John, and Fiona Harvey. "COP17 Climate Talks: Durban Text Follows EU Roadmap for New Global Deal." The Guardian UK . 9 Dec. 2011. Web. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/09/un-climate-talks-durban-text Vidal, John, and Fiona Harvey. "India Dampens Europe's Hopes of a New Climate Change Agreement." The Guardian UK . 6 Dec. 2011. Web. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/06/india-europe-climate-change-agreement Yeld, John. "COP17 ’s Late Deal ‘falls Short’." Daily News . 12 Dec. 2011. Web. http://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/cop17-s-late-deal-falls-short-1.1196869

28. Citation When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation: ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Durban. A slideshow; 6th installment in the series: Kyoto and Beyond . January 27, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.

29. Appendix The following slides provide support for information presented in the preceding slides.

33. The Outcome of the Green Climate Fund The Green Climate Fund was given the “green light” at COP17. Countries including Germany, the UK, Denmark, and Sweden have made initial pledges towards the fund ’s start-up costs. It may be ready for implementation in 2012 Long-term financing is still to be determined. An established working group will source the $100 billion that is needed by 2020. Many feel these are positive steps, but are also aware that money will not flow immediately. Image and recommendations for sources of funding provided by: the Center for American Progress (http://www.americanprogress.org/) The World Bank will be the fund ’s trustee for the first 3 years, after which commercial banks will bid on the position, and a new one will be selected.

34. CAT Infographic Infographic credit: http://www.climateactiontracker.org/

36. Climate Refugees Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Maldives (pictured above) recently stated that his government is considering Australia as a possible new home if the tiny archipelago disappears beneath rising seas. The country has established a sovereign wealth fund, drawn from its tourist revenue, to be used to buy land overseas and finance the relocation of the country ’s population of 350,000. Image credit: www.tripadvisor.com