Livestock Research to Reduce Poverty and Enhance Resilience
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Presented by John McPeak at the ISPC Science Forum 2016, Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016
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Livestock Research to Reduce Poverty and Enhance Resilience
- 1. John McPeak Department of Public Administration and International Affairs Syracuse University Animal Agri-Food Systems breakout session Livestock Research to Reduce Poverty and Enhance Resilience
- 2. Livestock Products Critical in Household Income Survey results from Kenya and Ethiopia 2000-2002
- 3. Importance of Livestock in Coping with Shocks 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Sell animals Household resources, practices, strategies Seek financial help Eat less Sell / trade cash crop for grains Labor migration Artisinal task / local economy Normalized rank of response to harvest 25% of needs Survey results from Niger and Mali 2008-9
- 4. Two paths to resilience • Preserve, protect, enhance mobility for the extensive grazing system
- 5. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2005_4 2006_1 2006_4 2007_1 2007_2 2007_3 2007_4 2008_1 2008_2 2008_3 2008_4 2009_1 2009_2 2009_3 2010_2 2010_3 2010_3 2010_4 2011_1 2011_2 2011_3 2011_4 2012_1 2012_2 2012_3 2012_4 2013_1 2013_2 2013_3 2013_4 2014_1 2014_2 2014_3 2014_4 2015_1 Nominal Price per TLU Ethiopia ETB Addis Nominal Boran Nominal 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2005_4 2006_1 2006_4 2007_1 2007_2 2007_3 2007_4 2008_1 2008_2 2008_3 2008_4 2009_1 2009_2 2009_3 2010_2 2010_3 2010_3 2010_4 2011_1 2011_2 2011_3 2011_4 2012_1 2012_2 2012_3 2012_4 2013_1 2013_2 2013_3 2013_4 2014_1 2014_2 2014_3 2014_4 2015_1 Real Price Per TLU Ethiopia 2010 ETB Addis Rea Borana Real Price per Head in TLU Addis data from www.lmiset.net courtesy Jay Angerer of Texas A&M IBLI Boran household data CPI adjustment from WDI online, 2010 Birr Prices converted to TLU, .7 for camel, 1 for cattle, 10 for sheep and goats, average for price per TLU for 3 month quarter per year
- 6. Very thin Thin Moderate Fat Goat 278 ETB ($16.35) 399 ETB ($23.47) 681 ETB ($40.06) 896 ETB ($52.71) With respect to moderate -59% -41% -- 32% Sheep 226 ETB ($13.29) 324 ETB ($19.06) 556 ETB ($32.71) 729 ETB ($42.88) With respect to moderate -59% -42% -- 31% Average smallstock prices, Dubuluk market Ethiopia July 2010-July 2012 in Birr, 1 USD July 2012 corresponds to around 17 Birr. Second Path : Intensification
- 7. Link to Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) • Much less expensive to keep animals alive than to replace them. • Premiums go down, adoption goes up? • Market for fodder in good years (fattening) • Market for fodder in bad years (insurance) • How to make sure there is a supply? • What are the different options out there?