Theory of Change: Indicators, data requirements, computation methods and sources of data. Presented by Leonard Kirui during the Tanzania Livestock Master Plan Theory of Change (ToC) validation workshop held on 15 March 2022 in Nairobi, Kenya.

1. Better lives through livestock
Theory of Change
Indicators, data requirements, computation methods and sources of data
Leonard Kirui
Research Officer
PIL/ILRI
Tanzania Livestock Master Plan ToC validation
Nairobi, 15th March 2022

2. Key Task
 Develop relevant indicators
 Data requirements
 Methods of computation
 Potential sources of data
.

3. 3
Impact
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources
of data
IMPACT
Increased livestock
contribution to GDP
Livestock sector
contribution to
agriculture GDP
- Total livestock value added in local
currency
- For a given year, value added in livestock
measures the output of the livestock
sector less the value of intermediate
inputs.
National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS)
Employment
opportunities for men,
women, and youth
Percentage of men that
are engaged in new job
opportunities in
livestock value chains
- Demographic data
- Cumulative number of the new jobs
created within sub sectors related to
livestock for men by existing enterprises.
This include "paid employment; "self-
employment".
- For a given year(t), the percentage of men
that are engaged in new job opportunities
in livestock value chains
Enterprise Survey
Integrated
Household Living
Conditions Survey
Percentage of women
that are engaged in new
job opportunities in
livestock value chains
- Demographic data
- Cumulative number of the new jobs
created within sub sectors related to
livestock for women by existing
enterprises. This include "paid
employment; "self-employment".
- For a given year(t), the percentage of
women that are engaged in new job
opportunities in livestock value chains
Enterprise Survey
Integrated
Household Living
Conditions Survey
Percentage of youth that
are engaged in new job
opportunities in
livestock value chains
- Demographic data
- Cumulative number of the new jobs
created within sub sectors related to
livestock for the youth by existing
enterprises. This include "paid
employment; "self-employment".
- For a given year(t), the percentage of
youth that are engaged in new job
opportunities in livestock value chains
Enterprise Survey
Integrated
Household Living
Conditions Survey

4. 4
Impact
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources
of data
IMPACT
Poverty reduction Reduction rate of the
poverty headcount
ratio at international
poverty line (% of
population), dpovI
- Number of people living in the country
(Population size)
- National poverty threshold. People below
the poverty line are considered poor
- Number of people whose incomes are
below the international poverty line
- Poverty headcount ratio (phr), at
international poverty lines (% of
population). The baseline value uses the
most recent estimator for the year 2015.
- For a given year(t), the Reduction rate of
poverty headcount ratio, at international
poverty line, is dpovI = 100 x (phrIt-1 -
phrIt) / phrIt-1
National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS)
Food security and
nutrition
Prevalence of
moderate and severe
food insecurity in the
population based on
the Food Insecurity
Experience Scale (FIES)
- Data can be collected using the Food
- Insecurity Experience Scale survey
module (FIES-SM) developed by FAO, or
any other experience-based food security
scale questionnaires. Individual and
household referenced versions of the
survey module are provided in English,
French, Spanish and Arabic. The FIES-SM
(individual version) has been adapted and
translated into more than
- 170 languages and dialects.
The data is analysed through the Rasch
model, which postulates that the probability
of observing an affirmative answer by
respondent i to question j, is a logistic
function of the distance, on an underlying
scale of severity, between the position of the
respondent ai and that of the item bj.
Additional information can
be found at
National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS)
FAO

5. 5
Impact
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources
of data
IMPACT
Food Security and
nutrition
Prevalence of
undernourishment
(percent of population)
- The PoU indicator is defined as the
probability that a randomly selected
individual from the reference population
is found to consume less than his/her
calorie requirement for an active and
healthy life
For a given year (t), the proportion of the
population that is undernourished
DHS, UNICEF
Multiple Indicator
Cluster Surveys
(MICS )WHO
Prevalence of
underweight children
(percent of children
under 5 years of age)
- Total number of children 0-59 months of
age (T)
- Number of children 0-59 months of age
that are underweight (U)
For a given year(t), the Prevalence of
underweight (% of children under 5 years
Indicator old) (in %), is : Uw = U/T*100
DHS, UNICEF MICS,
WHO
Prevalence of stunting
(percent of children
under 5 years of age)
- Total number of children 0-59 months of
age (T)
- Number of children 0-59 months of age
that are stunted (S)
For a given year(t), the Prevalence of stunting
(% of children under 5 years Indicator old) (in
%)
St = S/T*100
DHS, UNICEF MICS,
WHO
Prevalence of wasting
(percent of children
under 5 years of age)
- Total number of children 0-59 months of
age (T)
- Number of children 0-59 months of age
that are wasted (W)
For a given year(t), the Prevalence of wasting
(% of children under Indicator 5 old) (in %), is
Wa = W/T*100
DHS, UNICEF MICS,
WHO

6. 6
Impact
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential
sources of data
IMPACT
Exports and foreign
exchange earnings
Livestock exports
[Tonnes, by
commodity]
- Quantities of exports For a given year, change in quantities of
livestock exports
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Livestock exports
[Value in TES, by
commodity]
- Value of exports For a given year, change in value of
livestock exports
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Livestock imports
[Tonnes, by
commodity]
- Quantities of imports For a given year, change in quantities of
livestock imports
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Livestock imports
[Value in TES, by
commodity]
- Value of imports For a given year, change in value of
livestock imports
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Industrial and
manufacturing
sector (Based on
livestock raw
materials)
Share of livestock
processed products in
total Imports (%)
- Value of livestock processed imports
- Value of total imports
For a given year, share of livestock
processed products in total Imports (%)
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Share of livestock
processed products in
total Imports (%)
- Value of livestock processed exports
- Value of total exports
For a given year, share of livestock
processed products in total exports (%)
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Share of livestock
processed products in
household
consumption
- Total value of livestock processed
products
- Total household consumption
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)

7. 7
Impact
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources
of data
IMPACT
Environmental
sustainability – GHG
emissions/climate
change related
impacts Don’t you
mean Resilience
here?
Proportion of
Agriculture households
that have improved
their resilience capacity
to climate and
weather-related risks
(Improved Resilience
Capacity Index (RCI))
[Percent of Agricultural
Households]
- Data from resilience analysis in the
country for analyzing household
resilience using the FAO's RIMA model
For a given year (t), the percentage of farm,
pastoral and fishery-based households that
have improved their resilience to climate and
weather-related shocks
Country statistics,
and/or FAO

8. 8
Medium term outcomes
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources
of data
MEDIUM TERM OUTCOMES
Increased
productivity at
animal/household/re
gion/country level as
a result of better
feed, less disease,
and genetic
improvements
Change in carcass
weight per head of
cattle
- Carcass weight
- Cattle population
For a given year, Change in carcass weight per
head of cattle
FAOSTAT
National data
Change in carcass
weight of small
ruminants
- Carcass weight
- Small ruminants' population
For a given year, Change in carcass weight of
small ruminants
FAOSTAT
National data
Change in carcass
weight of poultry
- Carcass weight
- Poultry population
For a given year, Change in carcass weight of
poultry
FAOSTAT
National data
Change in milk yield
per head of cattle
- Milk volume
- Dairy cattle population
For a given year, Change in milk yield per head
of cattle
FAOSTAT
National data
Rate of artificial
insemination at
provincial and national
level
- Number of AI services administered at
provincial level
- Number of AI services administered at
national level
For a given year, Number of AI services
administered
FAOSTAT
National data
Total number of day-
old chicks supplied
- Number of day-old chicks supplied For a given year, Number of day-old chicks
supplied
FAOSTAT
National data
Reduction in post-
harvest losses
Reduction of Post-
production Losses for
priority livestock
commodities.
- Pre-Marketing losses
- Marketing losses
Post-production Losses (PPL) per production
system = Pre-Marketing losses + Marketing
losses
Ministry of
Agriculture

9. 9
Medium term outcomes
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources of
data
MEDIUM TERM OUTCOMES
Increased livestock
production and supply
of animal source foods
Change in production
volumes of red meat
- Quantities of red meat produced For a given year, quantity of red meat produced
within national boundaries expressed in metric
tonnes
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Change in production
volume of milk
- Quantities of milk produced For a given year, quantity of milk produced within
national boundaries expressed in metric tonnes
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Change in production
volume of poultry meat
- Quantities of poultry meat produced For a given year, quantity of poultry meat produced
within national boundaries expressed in metric
tonnes
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Change in production
volume of pig/pork meat
- Quantities of pig/pork meat produced For a given year, quantity of pig/pork meat produced
within national boundaries expressed in metric
tonnes
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Change in production
volume of leather
- Quantities of leather produced For a given year, quantity of leather produced within
national boundaries expressed in metric tonnes
FAO
NBS
Ministry of Agriculture
Improved quality of
livestock products
Existence of legal or policy
and institutional
frameworks on food safety
- Existence of risk-based food safety standards
for livestock commodities
Complete and functional risk-based food safety
standards for livestock commodities
Tanzania Bureau of
Standards
Existence of programmes
to facilitate/encourage
compliance to food safety
standard
- Existence of national capacity building
programmes in GAP, GMP, GHP
For a given year, evidence of training on GAP, GMP,
GHP
Tanzania Bureau of
Standards
Increased livestock trade Net livestock trade - Trade data For a given year, Value of livestock exports less value
of imports
Tanzania Revenue
Authority (TRA)
Increased income at the
household level
Livestock income as % of
total household income
- Total livestock holding
- Livestock contribution to household asset base
For a given year, Livestock income as % of total
household income
Ministry of Agriculture

10. 10
Short term outcomes
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources of
data
SHORT TERM OUTCOMES
Capacity of local experts
enhanced
Percentage of local experts
trained in TLMP
implementation who apply
new knowledge and skills
acquired
- Training attendance list
- Training reports
For a given years, percentage of local experts trained
in TLMP implementation who apply new knowledge
and skills acquired
Ministry of Agriculture
More and better-quality
investments by public
and private sectors and
development partners
Government livestock
expenditure as a
percentage of total
government expenditure
- Expenses incurred in performing the different
functions of government (e.g., administration,
economic, infrastructure, social, and public
safety) based on the Classification of the
Functions of Government (COFOG)
- Expenses incurred in performing different
livestock subfunctions (e.g., policy and planning,
research, extension, irrigation, infrastructure
and marketing, farm support) according to the
economic uses in the agricultural subsectors
For a given year(t), government livestock expenditure
as % of total government expenditure is: ţGLE = GLE *
100 / TGE
Ministry of finance
Official development
assistance for livestock,
disbursement as % of
commitment (agODA).
- Actual ODA disbursed by all donors through all
channels in performing different livestock
subfunctions
- ODA commitments made by all donors through
all channels to support performance of different
livestock subfunctions
For a given year, official development assistance for
livestock, disbursement as % of commitment is:
LivODA = LivODAD *100 / LivODAC.
OECD Creditor
Reporting System (CRS)
Domestic private sector
investment in livestock
as % of livestock value
added
- Investment oriented loans provided by the
banking sector to the livestock sector as well as
private equity investments
- Livestock value added
For a given year, ratio of domestic private sector
investment in livestock as % of livestock value added
is: ţDPrPb = DPrIL *100 / LivVA
Government Monetary
and Financial Statistics
FAO Statistical Division
Foreign private direct
investment in livestock
as % of livestock value
added
- FDI data
- Livestock value added
For a given year, the ratio of foreign private direct
investment in livestock as % of livestock value added
is:
ţFPrPb = FPrIL * 100 / LivVA
Government Monetary
and Financial Statistics
FAO Statistical Division

11. 11
Short term outcomes
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources
of data
SHORT TERM OUTCOMES
Alignment of public,
private and
development
partners investments
Existence of jointly
developed programs/
projects
Number of programs developed jointly
Number of projects developed jointly
For a given year, count of programs/projects
developed jointly
CAADP focal person
Existence of a mutual
accountability platform
Number of best practices satisfied (BPS) by
the country for a robust review mechanism
EMAP = (BPS/12) *100 CAADP focal person
Targeted intervention
by location,
commodity, value
chain
Existence of evidence-based
programs/projects targeting
locations, commodities, and
value chains
List of programs/projects targeting
locations, commodities, and value chains
For a given year, count of programs/projects
targeting locations, commodities, and value
chains
Ministry of
Agriculture
Change in existing
laws, policies and,
regulations
Number of existing laws,
regulations, or strategies
proposed to policy makers
for amendment
Policy documents - laws, regulations, or
strategies
For a given year, count of existing laws,
regulations, or strategies proposed to policy
makers for amendment
Ministry of
Agriculture
New policies, laws
and, regulations
Number of new laws,
regulations, policies, or
strategies proposed to
policymakers
Policy documents - laws, regulations, or
strategies
For a given year, count of new laws,
regulations, or strategies proposed to policy
makers
Ministry of
Agriculture

12. 12
Outputs
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources of data
OUTPUTS
Training modules and
reports
Number of new training
modules and reports
developed
- Training modules
- Implementation reports
For a given year, number of new
training modules and reports
developed
Ministry of Agriculture
Evidence based livestock
sector analysis report
Existence of livestock
sector analysis sector
report
Existence of an evidence-based
livestock sector analysis report
For a given year, assessment through
expert's opinion surveys on the
extent to which livestock sector
analysis report is evidence based
Ministry of Agriculture
Evidence based long term
livestock sector strategy
Whether the evidence
(livestock related) is used
in the development of the
NAIP (yes 100% otherwise
0%)
Total number of strategies in the
TLMP (TNP)
Number of strategies that are
evidence-based (NEP)
For a given year, assessment through
expert's opinion surveys on the
extent to which long term livestock
sector strategy is evidence based.
Ministry of Agriculture
Evidence based
documentation of priority
value chains and value chain
specific investment
roadmaps
Number of priority
livestock value chains
implemented and
promoted at national and
regional level
Policy documents For a given year, number of priority
livestock value chains implemented
and promoted at national and
regional level
Ministry of Agriculture
Documentation of TLMP
implementation modalities
and monitoring, evaluation
and learning plan
Existence of National
Roadmap for
implementing the TLMP
Existence of national roadmap
prepared by the country as part of
the steps to plan implementation
of the TLMP.
What is the status of completing and
availing the roadmap
Ministry of Agriculture

13. 13
Outputs
Indicator type Indicators Data requirement Computing methods Potential sources of data
OUTPUTS
Training of local experts Number of local experts trained
and dedicated to TLMP
implementation and M&E within
the ministry of Agriculture (FTE)
- Number of required fulltime staff
positions for planning and M&E (FTP)
- Number of staffing positions filled
(FTS)
FTE = (FTS/FTP) *100 Ministry of Agriculture
Baseline analysis of the livestock
sector
Existence of a baseline analysis
report
- Existence of a baseline analysis report
on the livestock sector prepared by
the country as part of the steps to
plan implementation of the TLMP
What is the is the status of availing the
baseline analysis of the livestock sector
report.
Ministry of Agriculture
Identification of priority value
chains and
technological/policy/institutional
intervention options
Number of promising value
chains and
technological/policy/institutional
interventions options identified
Policy documents List of the known promising livestock
value chain commodities in the country
Government policy documents
Number of promising
technological interventions
options identified
Policy documents List of the known promising livestock
technological interventions in the country
Government policy documents
Number of promising policy
interventions options identified
Policy documents List of the known promising livestock policy
interventions in the country
Government policy documents
Number of promising
institutional interventions
options identified
Policy documents List of the known promising livestock
institutional interventions in the country
Government policy documents
Ex-ante impact evaluation of
interventions
M & E framework developed Baseline information
Mid-term reviews
What is the is the status of availing the Ex-
ante impact evaluation of the TLMP
Ministry of Agriculture
Building a coalition of change Existence of inclusive
institutionalized mechanisms and
platforms for mutual
accountability and peer review
Existence of an institutionalized mechanism
and platform for mutual accountability,
supporting evidence-based review and
dialogue in the implementation of the TLMP
and other livestock related commitments.
For a given year, the existence of inclusive
institutionalized mechanisms for mutual
accountability and peer review
Ministry of Agriculture

14. THANK YOU