Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Tropentag 2014 Conference on Bridging the gap between increasing knowledge and decreasing resources, Prague, 17−19 September 2014

1. The interplay of knowledge and natural resources:
Ensuring the health, wealth and
environmental benefits of livestock
Tropentag 2014: Bridging the gap between
increasing knowledge and decreasing resources
17−19 September 2014  Prague, Czech Republic
Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI

2. Key messages-1
• With diminishing natural resources,
we’ll have 10 billion people to feed
by mid-century, many
of whom will be consuming
more meat, milk and eggs
• Transformation of the livestock systems of
developing countries is one of the biggest
opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy,
environmentally sound and equitable world

3. Key messages-2
• We can, and should, rely on the creation,
diffusion and application
of our primary ‘natural resource’
− scientific knowledge −
to transform the future
of livestock production
• We can, and should, ensure that we
grow our food and manage our
natural resources for the benefit of all −
and for all generations to come

4. Knowledge, food and natural resources: Pre-history

5. Humankind and natural resources before agriculture
Long before
recorded history,
people depended
on natural
resources for
their survival

6. Humankind and natural resources before agriculture
Before the advent
of agriculture,
each hunter-gatherer
needed about 6.5 sq km
to catch wild animals
and to gather wild foods

7. Application of knowledge first transforms agriculture:
Animals and plants are domesticated
Some 7 to 9
thousand years
ago, people
first domesticated
large herbivores

8. Humankind and natural resources
at the dawn of agriculture
Long before
recorded history,
people depended
on animals for
their survival

9. Exponential population growth
Global population (millions)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000
Series 1

10. Billion ha land per 1 million population
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

11. Billion ha land per 1 million population
16
14
12
10
8
Less than 2 ha per person −
shared with at 6
least 5 animals
4
2
0
Thousands of ha per person
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

12. Knowledge, food and natural resources: Revolutions

13. Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the
transformative nature of agriculture technologies-1

14. Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the
transformative nature of agriculture technologies-2

15. Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the
transformative nature of agriculture technologies-3

16. 0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
Billion ha land per 1 million population
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

17. US dairy carbon footprint in 2007 is
37% of that in 1944 (per bn kg of milk)

18. The Green Revolution
averts local ‘Malthusian catastrophes’

19. Application of knowledge, policy and research
leads to impressive yield gains

20. Knowledge, food and natural resources: Contrasts

21. The (supply-led) Green Revolution was not universal

22. The Livestock Revolution
is demand-led (not supply-led)

23. By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat
1bn tonnes more
cereals to 2050
1bn tonnes
dairy each year
460m tonnes
meat each year

24. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAO 2013

25. % change in global demand for livestock products:
2000–2030
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
milk beef mutton pork poultry
meat
eggs
FAO 2011
%

26. Change in global and regional demand for food:
Livestock and other commodities
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
developed developing SSA SA
% change 2005/07 to 2050
cereals
root/tuber
meat
dairy
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

27. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Million metric tonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006

28. Consumption of livestock products
to 2050
• Globally:
An overall increase in per capita daily consumption
of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:
– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:
– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption
will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014

29. Knowledge, food and natural resources:
Three plausible scenarios

30. Three plausible scenarios for livestock growth
Scenario #1
Developing countries meet
livestock demand by
importing products
Scenario #2
Developing countries meet
livestock demand by
importing knowledge
Scenario #3
Developing countries meet
livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

31. Knowledge, food and natural resources: Accelerators

32. The unlimited natural resource
of human will and ingenuity and innovations
Knowledge advances agriculture,
while agriculture (the ‘mother of all inventions’)
advances knowledge

33. Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-1
• Global poverty
and inequality
cannot be addressed
without investment
in livestock
• Global food
security and health
cannot be addressed
without investment
in livestock

34. Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-2
• Global
environmental
issues cannot be
addressed without
investment in
livestock
• Investment in
livestock needs to
produce more, from
less, in ways that
benefit all

35. Key messages-1
• With diminishing natural resources,
we’ll have 10 billion people to feed
by mid-century, many
of whom will be consuming
more meat, milk and eggs
• Transformation of the livestock systems of
developing countries is one of the biggest
opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy,
environmentally sound and equitable world

36. Key messages-2
• We can, and should, rely on the creation,
diffusion and application
of our primary ‘natural resource’
− scientific knowledge −
to transform the future
of livestock production
• We can, and should, ensure that we
grow our food and manage our
natural resources for the benefit of all −
and for all generations to come

37. better lives through livestock
ilri.org
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