Presented by Jimmy Smith, director general, ILRI, at the 6th Global Feed and Food Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, 11-13 March 2019

1. The future of farming and food
Jimmy Smith, director general,
International Livestock Research Institute
6th Global Feed and Food Congress
Bangkok, Thailand
11-13 March 2019

2. Key messages
• Increases in population, urbanization and income mostly
happening in emerging and developing economies
• Corresponding rise in demand for animal-source foods of all types
• Implications are the demand for feed will also increase in same
regions
• To be ready as a feed sector means:
• Addressing demand
• Along with sustainable development
• Recognizing the role and opportunities to transform small and medium
livestock enterprises
• Which represent new and different opportunities for the feed sector

3. Global trends impacting
the livestock sector

4. Population growth likely to stabilize around 2100?

5. Most population growth in Africa
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2100
Oceania Northern America L.America Caribbean Europe Africa Asia

6. Asia and Africa forecast to have highest GDP growth

7. By 2050 over two-thirds of the world will live in cities

8. What does this mean for
livestock demand?

9. Demand for animal source foods is influenced by GDP per
capita

10. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries outpace those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed

11. 0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
% growth in demand for livestock products to 2030
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030.
Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk
Increases not because of overconsumption!
OECD average 2018 = 69 kg/capita
SSA average 2018 = 10 kg/capita

12. What does this mean for
feed demand?

13. Composition of the 6 billion tonnes of global feed dry
matter (2010)
Grass, leaves
46%
Crop residues
19%
Fodder crops
8%
Oil seeds
5%
By-products
5%
Other non-edible
3%
Grains
13%
Other edible
1%
Grass, leaves Crop residues Fodder crops Oil seeds By-products Other non-edible Grains Other edible

14. Global livestock feed intake (million tonnes/year, 2010)
14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Grazing
Mixed
Feedlots
Grazing
Mixed
Feedlots
Cattle and buffalo Small ruminants
Poultry Pigs
0
50
100
150
200
250
Grazing
Mixed
Grazing
Mixed
0
50
100
150
200
250
Backyard
Layers
Broilers
Backyard
Layers
Broilers
0
50
100
150
200
250
Backyard
Intermediate
Industrial
Backyard
Intermediate
Industrial
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
OECD
OECD
OECD
human edible
human inedible
Note
the
scale!

15. Demand for feed – greatest in non-OECD and for human
inedible materials
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010 OECD 2010 non OECD 2025 OECD 2025 non OECD
Feed demand for meat (cattle, buffaloes, small ruminants, poultry, pigs)
Million tonnes
human edible human inedibe

16. Are we ready?
Key issues to consider?

17. To be ready……………
Respond to demand
• Demand for animal source food will
continue to grow rapidly
• Most of that increase in demand is
in emerging and developing
economies
• In these countries most animal
source foods are currently provided
by small farms
Do so sustainably
• The world is increasingly concerned
about sustainable, healthy diets
• Recognizing and using the diversity
of livestock production now and in
the future is essential for all aspects
of sustainable development
• Feed is a key interface between
animal source foods and the
environment (45% global emissions
from livestock are feed production
and processing)

18. Not just meeting demand:
Sustainable Development Goals
• Livestock contribute to all 17 of the SDGs and directly to at least 8
of the goals
• Negative press about, and low investments in, livestock
development jeopardize Agenda 2030

19. • Livestock contribute to all 17 of the SDGs and directly to at least 8
of the goals
• Negative press about, and low investments in, livestock
development jeopardize Agenda 2030
Not just meeting demand:
Sustainable Development Goals

20. Meeting demand in emerging and developing economies
Importing livestock products Importing livestock industrial
production know-how
Transforming smallholder livestock
systems

21. Importing livestock products
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
USDmillions
USA CentralAm SEAsia SSAfr NAfr Asia
Estimates of beef imports
 Less emissions per unit
product
 (some) improved access
to livestock foods
 Reduction of waste
livestock products (eg
turkey tails)
 Displace small
enterprises
 Environmental, welfare,
waste challenges
 Food safety (transport)
 Opportunity cost of
foreign exchange

22. OECD-FAO estimates of feed imports
(residues and wastes from food; prepared fodder)

23. OECD-FAO estimates of feed imports
(residues and wastes from food; prepared fodder)

24. Importing industrial know-how
 Less emissions per unit
product
 Markets for inputs and
services
 New jobs
 Improved access to
livestock foods
 Displace small
enterprises
 Disease and welfare
challenges
 Energy demands
 Waste hazards
 Food-feed competition
 Likely to require feed
imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
world 2000world 2050 Africa,
middle
east 2000
Africa,
middle
east 2050
Asia 2000 Asia 2050
Monogastric production by system
smallholder industrial
Almost 20%
remains
smallholder
Biggest change

25. In reality: the starting point
Proportion of livestock-derived foods produced by small farms in 2010
Source: Options for the Livestock Sector
in Developing and Emerging Economies
to 2030 and Beyond. World Economic
Forum White Paper January 2019

26. Transforming smallholders
 Win-win: improve
productivity, mitigate
environment, generate
livelihood (and wider
development)
opportunities
 Economic growth
 Opportunities for circular
bioeconomy
 High emissions per unit
product
 Low production efficiency
 Food safety
Provides food and nutritional security
BUT overconsumption can cause obesity
Powers economic development (livestock is 40% agGDP)
BUT equitable development can be a challenge
Improves human health (essential during first 1000 days)
BUT animal-human/emerging diseases
and unsafe foods need to be addressed
Enhances the environment
BUT pollution, land/water degradation,
GHG emissions and biodiversity losses
must be greatly reduced

27. The central role of feed in transforming the smallholder
livestock sector
• Up to 70% of the cost of production is for feed
• Feed is key to mitigate GHG emissions
o Quality and enteric emissions
o Productivity and emissions per unit product
o Feed production and sourcing
• Opportunities to address feed quality and
quantity without competing with food
o Genetic enhancement of residue quality
o Use of by-products and waste
• New business models for feed preparation and
provision

28. Feed is key to mitigate GHG emissions:
The win-win feed opportunity in developing countries
Emission intensity and milk yield
Big opportunity!
• Feed contributes at
least 25% of the
solution to improving
productivity
• Improved feed also
means less GHG from
enteric fermentation
• This change is
possible without a full
switch to
concentrates

29. Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity
without competing with food
From environmental hazard to high quality feed
50 million metric tonnes/annum cassava peel in Africa could generate over 15 million tonnes feed
Example: transforming (cassava) waste by products

30. Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity
without competing with food
 Variation in residue quality without
compromising grain yield
 Variation is sufficient to produce
significant productivity results and price
differences
 Easy to assess using NIRS = easy to
incorporate into crop breeding and
selection
70% of dairy feed in India is crop residues
Example: incorporate feed parameters into crop breeding
3 5 3 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 4 0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 5 0 5 1 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5
1 0 0 0
1 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
3 0 0 0
3 5 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 5 0 0
5 0 0 0
5 5 0 0
6 0 0 0
In v itro o rg a n ic m a tte r d ig e s tib ility (IV O M D ; % )
Grainyield(kg/ha)
r= 0 .1 3 ; P = 0 .0 4 ; N = 2 4 4
Stover digestibility and grain yield for sorghum cultivars

31. Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity
without competing with food
Example: Leveraging 2nd generation biofuel technologies
Steam
explosion
treatment
Ammonia fibre
expansion
(AFEX)
2-chemical
combination
treatment
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0
1 8
2 0
2 2
2 4
2 6
2 8
3 0
3 2
3 4
3 6
3 8
4 0
4 2
4 4
4 6
W e e k s o f e x p e rim e n ta tio n
OMI(g/kgLW)
T M R w ith 2 C C tre a te d rice s tra w
T M R w ith ste a m tre a te d rice s tra w
T M R w ith u n tre a te d rice stra w l
x = 3 4 .1
x = 3 9 .9
x = 28.3
+ 3 .9 2 k g L W G
+ 6 .1 2 k g L W G
+ 1 .6 6 k g L W G
R e s p o n s e o f s h e e p fe d to ta l m ix e d ra tio n s c o n ta in in g 7 0 % o f u n tre a te d , 2 C C T
tre a te d a n d s te a m tre a te d ric e s tra w
( Unpublished ILRI-IICT data)

32. Feed business opportunities in emerging and developing
economies
• New markets:
• adapted forages
• storage technologies
• Local feed sector development:
• use of by products
• novel feeds
• Sales and business franchises adapted
to smallholders

33. Future feed demand: opportunities to grasp
• At least 2 billion tonnes more feed needed by 2050
• Almost all demand in developing and emerging economies
• Foresight and modelling to target demand and investment
opportunities
• Develop crop breeding for better by product quality – systematic,
applications of genomics
• Pilot and take to scale use of spin off technologies
• Exploit novel feed resources (eg insects, algae)
• Ensure feed based strategies also combat climate change
• Develop forage seed systems (some locations)

34. Key messages
• Increases in population, urbanization and income mostly
happening in emerging and developing economies
• Corresponding rise in demand for animal-source foods of all types
• Implications are the demand for feed will also increase in same
regions
• To be ready as a feed sector means:
• Addressing demand
• Along with sustainable development
• Recognizing the role and opportunities to transform small and medium
livestock enterprises
• Which represent new and different opportunities for the feed sector

35. Grain use for feed, food and biofuel (000 tonnes) (OECD
prediction based on trends)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Developed 2018 Developed 2022 Developed 2027 Developing 2018 Developing 2022 Developing 2027
Grain use for feed, food and biofuel
(Grain = wheat, maize, other coarse grains, rice, distillers dry grain, soy)
Feed Food Biofuel

36. Grain use for feed (000 tonnes)
0.00
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
700,000.00
Developed 2018 Developed 2022 Developed 2027 Developing 2018 Developing 2022 Developing 2027
Chart Title
Wheat Maize Other coarse Rice Distillers dry Soy

37. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
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