Peer Learning Summit: Gender-responsive National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Processes Montego Bay, Jamaica​ | July 26-28, 2022​

1. Climate Change in
Jamaica: Impact
and Response
Presented by: Le-Anne Roper
Climate Change Division, Ministry of Economic Growth and
Job Creation
At the 2022 Peer Learning Summit on Gender-Responsive
NAP Processes
July 6-8, 2022

2. Effects of
Climate
Change –
Jamaica
• From the State of the Jamaican Climate 2019
report, observed changes include the
following:
• Temperatures have been increasing, with
nighttime temperatures increasing at a fast rate
than daytime temperatures (i.e., nights are
getting hotter faster)
• Rainfall has year-to-year variability that is
significant. There is also an increase in extreme
rainfall events
• Sea levels in Jamaica are rising
• Storms and hurricanes have increased in
frequency and intensity, with the south coast
being more susceptible to being affected by
them

3. Temperature in Jamaica from 1990 to 2019. Source: SOJC 2019
Rainfall in Jamaica from 1881 to 2019. Source: SOJC 2019

4. Historic and Present Climate
• In Jamaica, State of the
Jamaican Climate 2019
shows:
• The frequency and
duration of hurricanes in
the Atlantic Ocean has
increased since 1995
• Marked increase in
Categories 4 and 5
hurricanes
• The south of the country
is more susceptible to
hurricanes
Map showing probability of a hurricane passing within 50km of a grid box based on 66 years (1950 – 2015) of historical data.
Source: State of the Jamaican Climate Report 2019

5. Historic and Present Climate
• In Jamaica, State of the
Jamaican Climate 2019
shows:
• Sea levels have been rising
• Port Royal measurements
show an average
1.7mm/year
• Across the Caribbean, there
is an average increase 0.18
± 0.01 mm/year between
1950 and 2010
• However, between 1993
and 2010, up to 3.2
mm/year observed
Mean rate of Sea Level Rise across the Caribbean. Source: State of the Jamaican Climate Report 2019

6. Data source: Planning Institute of Jamaica

7. • Cost of extreme
events
• Uses damage
and loss
assessments
Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica
EVENT Year Cat. Cost ($JB) GDP cost (%)
Drought 1999/
2000
- 0.7 0.2
Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 2.5 0.7
May/June Flood Rains 2002 - 2.5 0.6
Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.4 0.1
Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 36.9 6.8
Hurricanes Dennis & Emily 2005 4 6.0 1.0
Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 3.6 0.6
Drought* 2005 0.5 0.1
Hurricane Dean 2007 4 23.8 3.0
Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 15.5 1.8
Drought* 2008 0.04 -
Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 20.6 1.9
Hurricane Sandy 2012 2 9.9 0.8
Drought* 2014 0.9 0.1
March to June Flood Rains 2017 4.1 0.2
Tropical Storms Zeta and Eta 2020 6.7 n/a
Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 0.8 n/a
Total 128.0 1.3
Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica

8. Source: ESSJ 2020

9. Past Headlines - Case Study
9

10. EVENT Year Cat. Cost ($JB) GDP cost (%)
Drought 1999/
2000
- 0.7 0.2
Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 2.5 0.7
May/June Flood Rains 2002 - 2.5 0.6
Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.4 0.1
Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 36.9 6.8
Hurricanes Dennis & Emily 2005 4 6.0 1.0
Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 3.6 0.6
Drought* 2005 0.5 0.1
Hurricane Dean 2007 4 23.8 3.0
Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 15.5 1.8
Drought* 2008 0.04 -
Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 20.6 1.9
Hurricane Sandy 2012 2 9.9 0.8
Drought* 2014 0.9 0.1
March to June Flood Rains 2017 4.1 0.2
Tropical Storms Zeta and Eta 2020 6.7 n/a
Tropical Storm Elsa 2021 0.8 n/a
Total 128.0 1.3
* Drought captures figures for Agriculture only. Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica

11. 70,000.0
60,000.0
50,000.0
40,000.0
30,000.0
20,000.0
10,000.0
0.0
Social Productive Infrastructure Environment
Data source: PlanningInstitute of Jamaica
Emergency
Cost
(J$Million)
Cost of Natural Disasters in Jamaica, 2000 - 2017

12. Effects of
Climate
Change –
Jamaica
• From the State of the Jamaican Climate 2019
report, projected changes follow the same
trends as those observed. Notably:
• Temperatures will continue to increase across
seasons of the year, with interior sections of the
island getting hotter, faster; and more warm
days and nights
• Rainfall will have a drying trend (i.e., less rainfall
each year) as early as 2030s; and the south and
east of the island will have the most significant
declines (e.g., Portland)
• Sea levels will continue to rise and at a faster
rate than before
• There is an increase projected for the number of
stronger hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5)

13. Temperature Projections
End of Century
2050s
13
Source: State of the Jamaican Climate 2019

14. Rainfall Projections (Percentage Change)
2050s
Source: State of the Jamaican Climate 2019

15. Rainfall Projections (Percentage Change)
End of Century
Source: State of the Jamaican Climate 2019

16. Approach to Action

17. Policy-Relevant Documents

19. Contact
Details
Climate Change Division
Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation
16a Half-Way-Tree Road
Kingston 5, Jamaica
+1 (876) 633-7500
climate.change@megjc.gov.jm
ClimateChangeDivisionJamaica
@ccdjamaica
@ccdjamaica