1. ANALYSIS ON THE FIRST AIRSTRIKES TO TARGET THE ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA
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Key points
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Khorasan militants: The name refers to Al-Qaeda fighters from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran who have travelled to Syria to fight with Jabhat al-Nusra – Matthew Henman, Head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre.
Airstrikes on their own will be insufficient to defeat the Islamic State. Cutting off the Islamic State’s access to oil funds will be a critical component of a successful strategy aimed at weakening the group – Firas Abi Ali, Head of Middle Eat Analysis at IHS Country Risk.
The 23 September strikes were conducted using a mix of carrier- and land-based combat aircraft, and Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from USS Arleigh Burke and USS Philippine Sea operating in the international waters of the Red Sea and Persian Gulf – Gareth Jennings, Head of the Aviation Desk at IHS Jane’s.
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Analysis from Matthew Henman, Head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre
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There are reports (23 Sep) that US/allied air strikes this morning in Syria’s Aleppo governorate targeted Jabhat al-Nusra, and more specifically “Khorasan” militants fighting therein. The name refers to Al- Qaeda fighters previously based in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran who have travelled to Syria to fight with Jabhat al- Nusra. They have been doing so for several years now, so should not be considered a new or distinct group as such.
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Analysis from Firas Abi Ali, Head of Middle East Analysis at IHS Country Risk
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The strikes seem to be an attempt to weaken the fundamentalist Islamist opposition to Syrian President Assad, in the hope that additional funding would be given to the ‘moderate’ opposition to help them turn the tide against both Assad and the fundamentalists.
Airstrikes on their own will be insufficient to defeat the Islamic State. However, it is not clear to what extent there is a moderate opposition left that can be relied on to take the ground war to the Islamic State and fulfil the aspiration of defeating both the Islamic State and Assad. Building a military opposition with the capability to take on both these sides may well take years rather than months. This difficulty is compounded by the divided opposition’s apparent inability to govern.
Moreover, there is no evidence yet that the strikes have aimed at disrupting the flow of oil from Islamic State-controlled territory into neighbouring countries’ markets. Cutting off the Islamic State’s access to oil funds will be a critical component of a successful strategy aimed at weakening the group.
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The overnight strikes were conducted using a mix of carrier- and land-based combat aircraft, and Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from USS Arleigh Burke and USS Philippine Sea operating in the international waters of the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.
While conducting air strikes against IS in Iraq is not without its risks, politically and militarily, doing the same against targets in Syria raises these risks. The Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria have access to captured man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS). However, the most sophisticated of these are only really effective up to about 15,000 ft. This means that, having the government's permission to operate in its airspace, US and allied aircraft operating over Iraq are flying in a relatively permissive environment.
In Syria, there is no such permission, so as well as the threat posed by IS- controlled MANPADS, US and allied pilots have to consider the threat from the Syrian government's far more sophisticated air defence systems, including MiG fighter aircraft flown by the Syrian Arab Air Force. It will be for this reason that the F-22 stealth fighter has made its combat debut over Syria.
Analysis from IHS Jane’s Aviation Desk Editor Gareth Jennings
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