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Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood and under 5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010 julie rajaratnam-052410_ihme

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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington
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Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards MDG4 May 24, 2010 Julie Rajaratnam
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tracking Progress on MDG4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Opportunities for Improved Estimation of Levels and Trends in Child Mortality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expanded Data Sources Empirical Measurements Vital Registration 3549 Sample Registration Systems 53 Complete Birth Histories 1447 Summary Birth Histories 9870 Household Deaths 62 Country-Specific Surveys 10 Disease Surveillance Points 12 Murray, Laakso, Shibuya et al Original Database 1075 Reports and Publications 96 Total 16174
Methods for Child Mortality Data Synthesis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GPR Has Improved Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Gaussian process regression ,[object Object],[object Object],Method Survey Low/Middle Income VR High-Income VR GPR 6.0 6.9 1.0 Loess - 2007 8.3 11.1 7.7 Spline - 3 6.7 9.2 3.4 Spline - 5 6.8 10.5 4.0 Spline - 10 7.0 11.3 5.1
Gaussian process regression ,[object Object],[object Object],Method Mean Relative Error Median Relative Error GPR 17.7 10.9 Loess - 2007 18.3 13.1 Spline - 3 40.5 15.1 Spline - 5 26.4 14.7 Spline - 10 24.8 13.9 Method Mean Relative Error Median Relative Error GPR 11.0 7.3 Loess - 2007 13.4 10.1 Spline - 3 12.7 9.0 Spline - 5 12.1 9.0 Spline - 10 24.8 13.9
Neonatal, Postneonatal, Childhood Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Predictive Validity for Neonatal, Postneonatal, Childhood Model Design Age Mean Relative Error Median Relative Error In Sample Neonatal 9.3% 6.2% Post-neonatal 10.9% 8.0% Child 11.4% 7.8% Dropping 20% of data Neonatal 9.8% 6.7% Post-neonatal 11.8% 8.7% Child 11.9% 8.1% Dropping 20% of countries Neonatal 11.4% 7.1% Post-neonatal 12.9% 9.1% Child 14.3% 8.9% Dropped last 10 years Neonatal 14.4% 11.4% Post-neonatal 21.0% 15.1% Child 19.2% 13.3%
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Country Examples: Norway
Country Examples: El Salvador
Country Examples: Laos
Country Examples: Liberia
Global Under Five Deaths 1970-2010
Global Neonatal, Postneonatal, and Childhood Mortality Rates 1970-2010
Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group A
Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group B
Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group C
Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group D
Under-Five Mortality Rate in 2010
Annual Rate of Decline in U5 1990-2010
Regional Rates of Decline NN, PNN and CHD 1990-2010
Accelerating Progress on U5
Developing countries on track to achieve MDG 4 Country Rate of decline (%) Country Rate of decline (%) Maldives 9.21 Syrian Arab Republic 5.11 United Arab Emirates 8.43 Algeria 4.99 Oman 6.92 Bhutan 4.92 Turkmenistan 6.65 Cuba 4.88 Viet Nam 6.4 Armenia 4.84 Sri Lanka 6.28 Thailand 4.83 Egypt 6.2 Brazil 4.81 Malaysia 5.85 Bahrain 4.74 Tunisia 5.69 China 4.72 El Salvador 5.64 Mexico 4.63 Lebanon 5.62 Bangladesh 4.57 Peru 5.42 Honduras 4.57 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 5.34 Barbados 4.55 Nepal 5.33 Costa Rica 4.5 Chile 5.16 Turkey 4.47 Mongolia 5.15
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Limitations
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Learning from Success Stories ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood and under 5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010 julie rajaratnam-052410_ihme

  • 1. Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards MDG4 May 24, 2010 Julie Rajaratnam
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Expanded Data Sources Empirical Measurements Vital Registration 3549 Sample Registration Systems 53 Complete Birth Histories 1447 Summary Birth Histories 9870 Household Deaths 62 Country-Specific Surveys 10 Disease Surveillance Points 12 Murray, Laakso, Shibuya et al Original Database 1075 Reports and Publications 96 Total 16174
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Predictive Validity for Neonatal, Postneonatal, Childhood Model Design Age Mean Relative Error Median Relative Error In Sample Neonatal 9.3% 6.2% Post-neonatal 10.9% 8.0% Child 11.4% 7.8% Dropping 20% of data Neonatal 9.8% 6.7% Post-neonatal 11.8% 8.7% Child 11.9% 8.1% Dropping 20% of countries Neonatal 11.4% 7.1% Post-neonatal 12.9% 9.1% Child 14.3% 8.9% Dropped last 10 years Neonatal 14.4% 11.4% Post-neonatal 21.0% 15.1% Child 19.2% 13.3%
  • 13.
  • 18. Global Under Five Deaths 1970-2010
  • 19. Global Neonatal, Postneonatal, and Childhood Mortality Rates 1970-2010
  • 20. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group A
  • 21. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group B
  • 22. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group C
  • 23. Under-Five Death Rates by Region Group D
  • 25. Annual Rate of Decline in U5 1990-2010
  • 26. Regional Rates of Decline NN, PNN and CHD 1990-2010
  • 28. Developing countries on track to achieve MDG 4 Country Rate of decline (%) Country Rate of decline (%) Maldives 9.21 Syrian Arab Republic 5.11 United Arab Emirates 8.43 Algeria 4.99 Oman 6.92 Bhutan 4.92 Turkmenistan 6.65 Cuba 4.88 Viet Nam 6.4 Armenia 4.84 Sri Lanka 6.28 Thailand 4.83 Egypt 6.2 Brazil 4.81 Malaysia 5.85 Bahrain 4.74 Tunisia 5.69 China 4.72 El Salvador 5.64 Mexico 4.63 Lebanon 5.62 Bangladesh 4.57 Peru 5.42 Honduras 4.57 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 5.34 Barbados 4.55 Nepal 5.33 Costa Rica 4.5 Chile 5.16 Turkey 4.47 Mongolia 5.15
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.