CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century (Vancouver, BC – 28 July 2018, 30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists). Presented by Will Masters, Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy and Department of Economics, Tufts University.

1. Rural transformation and nutrition transition:
Same pathways, different speeds?
Will Masters
Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy
and Department of Economics, Tufts University
http://nutrition.tufts.edu/profile/william-masters
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets
Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century
Vancouver, BC – 28 July 2018
With Winnie Bell and Keith Lividini, PhD candidates at Tufts University

2. All data shown are national totals
Aim is “factfulness” (Rosling), to see both forest and trees
Rural transformation and nutrition transition:
Same pathways, different speeds?

3. Three kinds of visualization:
(1) Year-to-year changes over time, by region
– The ag-nut transition from starchy staples to other foods
– The rural transformation from falling to rising farm sizes
(2) Preston curves, for Africa vs RoW, 1990s vs 2010s
– Agriculture as a share of employment
– Child stunting as a measure of health outcomes
(3) Lorenz curves of global inequality, 1970 vs 2010
– Agricultural resources (cropland harvested per rural person)
– Food and nutrient consumption (units per capita)
Then conclusions, and implications for today’s workshop
Data visualization reveals global patterns

4. -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
kg/ha FAO estimates of cereal yields by region, 1961-2014
E Asia
Americas
Europe
SE Asia
World
S Asia
Africa
Data shown are FAOSTAT estimates, from national statistics of UN member countries
Let’s start with something we all know
Agricultural “revolutions” are slow, cumulative changes

5. 0.15
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Nutrient-densefoods(pctofdietaryenergy)
Total dietary energy (calories/capita/year)
East Asia
SE Asia
South Asia
Africa
World Average
Europe
United States
1961 20052013
1961
2013
1988
1995
1961
2013
Dietary transitions towards more and more diverse foods, 1961-2013
More food
More and
different foods
Data shown are from FAO Food Balance Sheets, downloaded 14 July 2018 http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS.
Europe includes all of the former Soviet Union.
The nutrition transition pulls agriculture
from more food to different foods

6. Agricultural and food systems develop
around farming as a family enterprise
Large enterprises arise due to scale economies in manufacturing and
distribution, for both farm inputs and the food industry
Input suppliers
Food industries
Agribusinesses (seed multiplication,
fertilizer & chemicals, machinery)
Food companies
(ingredients, processing,
distribution & sales)
Farming remains a
family operation,
with exceptions for
immediate processing
(e.g. sugar, tea) and
confined operations
(e.g. chickens)
Family farms
Consumer diets

7. 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Globally, the whole world's rural population is
already near its peak
and will soon decline
Total
Rural
Urban
“peak rural”
is 2022
The speed and direction of rural change
depends on labor/land ratios and rural
population growth relative to urbanization
Number of
people
(billions)
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.

8. 0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population will keep
growing past 2050,
despite very rapid urbanization
Total
Rural
Urban Rural population
still rising
past 2050!
Over 50% urban
in 2040
World’s fastest urban
population growth,
but from a small base
Africa’s rural population will keep
growing for several decades
World’s fastest total
population growth
Number of
people
(billions)
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.

9. The rise and then fall of rural populations
drives agricultural transformation
-0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
SS Africa
India
China
China's rural population
stopped growing in
the early 1990s
Africa's rural population
will keep growing
through the 2050s
India's rural population
will stop growing
in the 2020s
UN estimates of total rural population, 1950-2050Number of
people
(billions)
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.

10. Rural population growth rates
reveal differences between countries,
and are an important aspect of success stories
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
UN estimates of rural population growth rates per year, 1950s-2040s
S.S. Africa (total)
Ghana
World (total)
India
Bangladesh
China
Thailand
When rural population growth
declines below zero, the area of
land per rural person can grow

11. Ag’s share of the workforce
has remained much higher
in Africa than elsewhere
and did not shift down
from 1991 to 2010
Reprinted from W.A. Masters, N.Z. Rosenblum and R.G. Alemu, 2018. Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa. J. of Development Studies, 54(5): 788-802.
Rural population growth ensures that
a large fraction of African workers are farming

12. Africa’s stunting rates are higher than others
The big structural shift at each income level
is towards taller children
Reprinted from W.A. Masters, N.Z. Rosenblum and R.G. Alemu, 2018. Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa. J. of Development Studies, 54(5): 788-802.
but have benefited from innovation
in maternal & child health

13. Another approach to structural change is
through Lorenz Curves
From 1970 to 2010, the global distribution
of harvested land area per rural person
became more unequal
If harvested land area were distributed
equally among all rural people, the
Lorenz curve would be a diagonal line
at the top, among land-rich countries
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

14. We can see countries’ position in the global
distribution through a Parade chart
1970
2010
By 2010, African countries (in light green)
are no longer land abundant.
Some are among the world’s
most land-scarce countries.
Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

15. Diet quality (e.g. consumption of protein)
has become more equal
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

16. Diet quality (e.g. consumption of protein)
has become more equal
1970
2010
Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

17. Consumption of animal-sourced foods
has become much more equal
African countries (in light green) are
among those with the least access
to animal-sourced foods
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

18. Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Consumption of animal-sourced foods
has become much more equal
African countries (in light green) are increasingly
among those with the least access
to animal-sourced foods
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

19. Consumption of vitamin A
has also become more equal
But increased equality in vitamin A
consumption has occurred only in
vitamin-A rich countries
Countries with below-median
consumption have had no
increase in their share of
global vitamin A
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

20. Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Consumption of vitamin A
has also become more equal
Closure of the “poverty gap” in vitamin A consumption
has occurred here
There is still a large gap
among countries with
low vitamin A consumption
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, 2018. Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

21. Rising rural population,
most farmers have
shrinking land area
Stable rural population,
most ag is large farms
Stable rural population,
most ag is large farms
Near peak or falling rural population,
small farm sizes that can now expand
Stable rural population,
most ag is large farms
Stable rural population,
most ag is large farms
Implications for CGIAR research on
Policies, Institutions and Markets
We must avoid misleading generalizations, but it can be helpful to see the world in stylized ways:

22. Continent:
Agriculture:
Africa
(previously other regions)
South Asia
(previously other regions)
East & SE Asia
(previously other regions)
Europe, N. America and
other early-growth regions
Farm workforce
(Driven by demographic history,
urbanization and migration
opportunities)
Rising
(from a low base)
Near peak
(previously rising)
Falling
(peaked recently)
Stable
(previous falling)
Innovations needed
(Direction of change driven by trends
in quality and quantity of land, water
and other resources per worker in
farm households, driving labor
intensity and mechanization)
Shrinking average farm sizes
implies that more labor-
intensive techniques are
needed; land becomes more
valuable and may be
consolidated by elites in a
few large farms, squeezing
remaining smallholders onto
even smaller farms
Farms no longer shrinking
but have been fragmented
by history of falling land-
labor ratios; farmers are still
poor but often gain political
power at this time, and may
get rapid improvement in
public services
Opportunities for some
farmers to expand by
taking over neighbors’
land depends on tenure
rules; flexibility permits
adjustment in land use
to allow mechanization
and changing mix of
outputs and inputs
Farm sizes no longer expanding
on average, but may keep
expanding in remote
hinterlands (where farming is
full-time work) while shrinking
in multifunctional areas (where
farming is a part-time activity)
Implications for CGIAR research on
Policies, Institutions and Markets
We must avoid misleading generalizations, but it can be helpful to use typologies:

23. • Africa is increasingly the center of agricultural and nutritional deprivation
– Falling farm sizes, while other regions see stable or rising land area per rural resident
– But also increasing diversity among African countries
(plus great variation within countries, not shown here)
• Agriculture and nutrition differ in recent trajectories
– Agricultural resources (harvested area) have become more unequal
– Diets (e.g. protein, ASFs, vitamin A) have become less unequal
…but the most deprived have seen little increase in their share of global totals
• Global visualizations of a single development pathway reveals rather than
masks local diversity
– Seeing Africa’s commonalities reveals diversity within it
– Seeing shared pathways aligns expectations, and reveals diverse obstacles to be overcome
Rural transformation and nutrition transition:
Same pathways, different speeds?