The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
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The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition Dr. Pernille Seljom, IFE, Norway 16â17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino
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The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition
- 1. The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition Kristina Haaskjold & Pernille Seljom pernille.seljom@ife.no Renewable energy systems Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) Politecnico di Torino, Italy 17.11.2023 ETSAP winter WorkShop 2023
- 2. Motivation ⢠May 2022- Major offshore wind initiative from the Norwegian government ⢠Target of 30 GW by 2040 ⢠About 140 TWh ⢠âOver the next 20 years, we will go from having two offshore wind turbines in operation to having around 1 500 turbines,â Priminister Jonas Gahr Støre ⢠âThis initiative achieves three objectives at once: it will lead to more than enough clean, affordable electricity for existing and new industry across the country; it will create enormous opportunities for exporting Norwegian technology; and it will be a major contribution to the green transition in Europe.â Minister of Trade and Industry Jan Christian Vestre. 2
- 3. Norwegian electricity generation 2022 3 Hydropower 128.7 TWh CHP 2.4 TWh Wind power 14.8 TWh + + Import 13.3 TWh + End use 125.2 TWh + Grid losses 6.7 TWh Pumped HP 1.6 TWh + + Export 25.8 TWh Data from: https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/elektrisitet
- 4. Figure from: Motvind Norge ett ür ⢠Motvind Norge
- 5. 5 Plans for large growth in electricity demand
- 6. 6 Norwegian emissions in 2022 In CO2 equivalents: ⢠Oil and gas: 12.2 Mt ⢠Industry: 11.6 Mt ⢠Road transport: 8.7 Mt ⢠Other transport: 7.7 Mt ⢠Agriculture: 4.6 Mt ⢠Waste: 3.6 Mt ⢠Buildings: 0.2 Mt CO2 equivalents: - 1 x CO2 - 25 x CH4 - 298 x N20
- 7. 7 ⢠Announced 25.04.2023 ⢠Two opened regions 3GW ⢠Sørli Nordsjø 2 in Sørvest F ⢠Utsira Nord in Vestavind F ⢠Planned concessions in 2025 ⢠Radial connections ⢠Research questions ⢠Under what conditions are offshore wind a techno-economic solution? ⢠How will it influence the Norwegian energy system? Offshore wind regions
- 8. Figur: IEA, NETP 2016 Norwegian energy system model IFE-TIMES-Norway (2018-2055) ⢠Investments & operation to meet demand future demand for energy services at least cost ⢠Covers entire energy system ⢠Detail representation of end-use and offshore wind ⢠Regions ⢠5 onshore spot price regions ⢠20 offshore regions ⢠Endogenous electricity trade with European countries; Denmark, Sweden, Germany, United Kingdom & Netherland 8 Documentation+of+IFE-TIMES- Norway+v3+(ID+57346)+(003).pdf (unit.no)
- 9. Offshore wind model input 9 Area AFA Foundation Connection Nordavind A 49.6 % Floating NO4 Nordavind B 50.2 % Floating NO4 Nordavind C 48.8 % Floating NO4 Nordavind D 48.8 % Floating NO4 Nordvest A 49.5 % Floating NO4 Nordvest B 48.3 % Floating NO3 Nordvest C 47.0 % Floating NO3 Vestavind A 51.3 % Floating NO3 Vestavind B 49.6 % Floating NO3 Vestavind C 48.9 % Floating NO5 Vestavind D 45.8 % Floating NO5 Vestavind E 52.3 % Floating NO2 Vestavind F 50.1 % Floating NO2 Sørvest A 54.5 % Bottom-fixed NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK Sørvest B 54.3 % Bottom-fixed NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK Sørvest C 55.1 % Bottom-fixed NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK Sørvest D 54.5 % Bottom-fixed NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK Sørvest E 56.1 % Bottom-fixed NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK Sørvest F 55.9 % Bottom-fixed NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK Sønnavind A 56.5 % Floating NO2, DK1, DE, NL, UK
- 10. Production correlation within Norway & Northern Europe 10
- 11. Case studies and sensitivities Case studies based primary uncertainties: ⢠European electricity prices ⢠National electricity demand ⢠Investment costs of offshore wind Sensitivities on expansion of: ⢠Onshore wind power ⢠National transmission grid ⢠All cases and sensitivities assumes a transition to carbon-neutrality by 2050 ⢠2030: CO2 price of 200 EUR/tCO2 ⢠2050: CO2 price of 438 EUR/tCO2 11 ⢠Investment cost, EUR/ GW 0 100 200 300 400 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Electricity price [âŹ/kWh] Winter - Sweden 2050 Ref Half Low High 0 50 100 150 200 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Electricity price [âŹ/kWh] Summer - Sweden 2050 Ref Half Low High
- 12. Results 2040: Investments depends on European prices 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 HH-1 LH-1 HH-2 LH-2 HL-2 HH-0.8 LH-0.8 HL-0.8 HH-0.5 LH-0.5 Ref High price Low price Half price Offshore wind capacity [GW] Nordvest Nordavind Vestavind Sørvest Sønnavind HH = High investment cost and High demand, LH = Low investment cost and High demand, HL = High investment cost and Low demand.
- 13. Results 2040: Investments depends on technology learning 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 HH-1 LH-1 HH-2 LH-2 HL-2 HH-0.8 LH-0.8 HL-0.8 HH-0.5 LH-0.5 Ref High price Low price Half price Offshore wind capacity [GW] Nordvest Nordavind Vestavind Sørvest Sønnavind HH = High investment cost and High demand, LH = Low investment cost and High demand, HL = High investment cost and Low demand.
- 14. Results 2040: Investments depends on demand when high prices 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 HH-1 LH-1 HH-2 LH-2 HL-2 HH-0.8 LH-0.8 HL-0.8 HH-0.5 LH-0.5 Ref High price Low price Half price Offshore wind capacity [GW] Nordvest Nordavind Vestavind Sørvest Sønnavind HH = High investment cost and High demand, LH = Low investment cost and High demand, HL = High investment cost and Low demand.
- 15. Results 2050 Offshore wind lowers marg. investments in hydropower & PV on buildings 15 47 47 47 47 47 47 11 10 12 11 9 9 9 9 18 17 8 6 77 147 157 169 58 128 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 HH LH HH LH HH LH Ref price High price Low price New renewable production [TWh] Offshore wind PV Hydro Onshore wind HH = High investment cost and High demand, LH = Low investment cost and High demand
- 16. Results: Offshore wind increase cost-competition of green hydrogen 17 22 24 11 18 31 31 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 HH LH HH LH HH LH Ref price High price Low price Offshore wind production [TWh] Electricity use [TWh] H2 CCS Transport Industry DH Buildings Wind prod. HH = High investment cost and High demand, LH = Low investment cost and High demand
- 17. Acceptance of onshore wind influences offshore investments in north ⢠Figure 10: Difference in offshore wind capacity when limiting investments in new transmission cables (T) and onshore wind deployment (O), compared to HH and LH case. HH: High investment costs, High demand. LH: Low investment costs, High demand. T: No new domestic Transmission. O: No new Onshore wind. 18 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 HH-T HH-O LH-T LH-O HH-T HH-O LH-T LH-O High price Low price Diff. in offshore wind capacity [GW] Nordvest Nordavind Vestavind Sørvest Sønnavind
- 18. Key takeaways ⢠Norwegian offshore wind can contribute with significant electricity to the European power market ⢠Cost-competitiveness of Norwegian offshore wind depends on: ⢠European power market ⢠Technology development/ subsidies ⢠National electricity demand ⢠Expansion of onshore wind ⢠Offshore wind power ⢠marginally lowers investments in building applied PV and hydropower ⢠Increases the profitability of green hydrogen 19
- 19. Further research ⢠Impact of modelling methodology on offshore wind investment strategy ⢠Temporal resolution ⢠Weather dependent production and ancillary markets ⢠Wind profiles selection ⢠Climate change ⢠Combining Norwegian and European analysis with IFE-TIMES-Norway and IFE-TIMES-Europe ⢠Welfare and employment impacts of pathways of offshore wind in combination with hydrogen and new industries ⢠Please contact me, pernille.seljom@ife.no , for collaboration on these topics. 20