The role of Electrical vehicles in Europe

1. The role of Electrical vehicles in Europe
-
Outcome from the ERA-Net Project EV-STEP
PD. Dr. Markus Blesl
Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung,
Universität Stuttgart
Copenhagen, Electro-mobility and EV-Step regional workshop
17th November 2014

2. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Motivation and objective
● What will be the perspective electro-mobility in the transport sector of
the EU-28 as a whole and in the countries is one main question at the
moment ?
● Varied assumptions concerning energy, climate and environmental
policy in the EU can have impact on the role of electro-mobility.
● The penetration of electric vehicle concepts can have impacts on the
sustainability of both, transport sector and the total energy system.
2
Analyze with a scenario analysis the role of electro-mobility in the
energy system in the EU-28 and there member states

3. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 3
TIMES PanEU
• Technology oriented bottom-up partial equilibrium model
• 30 region model (EU 28, No, CH, IS)
• Energy system model
• SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion Country specific
renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, ocean,
geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro)
• Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants
• Residential and Commercial: End use technologies (space heating, water
heating, space cooling and others)
• Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia
and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), food, other industries,
autoproducer and boilers
• Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks,
passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation
• Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use
technologies
• Time horizon 2010 - 2050
• GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10

4. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Schematic representation of the consideration
of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) energy storage in
TIMES PanEU
• Idea: Electric vehicles (BEV,
PHEV) serve as energy
storage if connected to grid
• Thus, they could provide
(peak) electricity if necessary
• Recharging during off -peak
times
• However, keep sufficient
energy for vehicle trips
• Additional battery cycles
decrease battery lifetime!

5. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 5 /
Development of specific investment cost of
batteries

6. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 6
Overview of the scenarios
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population Mio. 497 500 499 491 476
Average growth per annum % 0,01 0,00 -0,2 -0,3
GDP 1012€07 12,0 15,1 17,9 20,9 24,5
Average growth per annum % 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6
REF REF- EU EU-
GHG reduction
target
Renewable
Electromobility national targets no national targets no
Biofuels national targets no national targets no
EU-ETS: -21% till 2020 comp. 2005
afterwards -1,74% p.a.
Overall GHG reduction -20% till
2020 and -80% till 2050
Increasing reliance on RES, 60% share in electricity consumption
2050
Social economic assumptions:

7. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Mobility demand in the EU28
7 /
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU-28
Passenger traffic
(without aviation)
Bio.
Pkm
5.857 6.458 6.796 6.884 6.911
car/motorcycles % 83,6 83,8 84,0 84,2 84,5
bus % 8,8 8,4 8,1 7,9 7,7
train % 7,6 7,8 7,9 7,9 7,8
Aviation PJ 2.066 2.947 3.399 3.634 3.787
Good transport Bio. tkm 2.549 3.268 3.762 4.009 4.133
trucks % 72,3 74,8 75,1 75,2 75,0
rail % 16,7 14,7 14,4 14,5 14,6
navigation % 11,0 10,4 10,5 10,3 10,3

8. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Scenario analysis CO2 Emissions (EU-28)
8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2010
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2020 2030 2040 2050
EmissionsofCO2[Mt]
International Aviation
Transport (without int. Aviation)
Agriculture
Commercial
Residential
Industry
Conversion, production

9. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Net Electricity Supply (EU-28)
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500 2010
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2020 2030 2040 2050
Shareofrenewableelectricitygenerationof
totalgrosselectricityconsumption
Netelectricitysupply[TWh]
Electricity storage
(excl. pump storage)
Electricity Imports
Desertec
Net Imports w/o
Desertec
Others / Waste non-ren.
Other Renewables
Biomass / Waste ren.
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro (incl. pump
storage)
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas w/o CCS
Oil
Lignite CCS
Lignite w/o CCS
Coal CCS
Coal w/o CCS
Share of renewable
energies

10. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Final Energy Consumption Electricity (EU-28)
10
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000 Modell
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricityconsumption[PJ]
Agriculture
Transport
Residential
Industry
Commercial

11. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Final energy consumption transport by
transport mode(EU-28)
11
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000 Statisitc
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
finalenergyconsumption[PJ]
navigation
aviation
rail
trucks
Bus
individual
transport

12. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
Statisitc
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Finalenergyconsumption[PJ]
Others
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricty
Gas
Kerosin
Gasoline
Diesel
Final energy consumption transport by
energy carier (EU-28)
12 /

13. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 13 / 3
7208
6226
6362
6211
6326
5392
5693
5386
5608
4725
5149
4450
4669
4201
4723
2943
3222
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Statisitc
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
finalenergyconsumption[PJ]
Others
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricty
Gas
Kerosin
Gasoline
Diesel
Final energy consumption cars by energy
carrier (EU-28)

14. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 14
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Statistic
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
carstockin[1000veh]
others
FCEV + FCHEV
BEV + PHEV
HEV (all fuels)
gas (natural gas,
LPG)
bio liquides
conventional
(gasoline, diesel,
biofuel blending)
Stock of cars by engine type (EU-28)

15. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Stock of trucks and buses (EU-28)
15
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Statistic
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
REF
REF-
EU
EU-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
trucksandbusstock[1000veh]
others
FCEV +
FCHEV
BEV + PHEV
HEV (all fuels)
gas (natural
gas, LPG)
bio liquides

16. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Conclusion and Outlook
16
● The penetration of electrical vehicles not only depends on the share
of renewables it is influenced mainly by the GHG reduction target.
● Till 2030 the assumed cost reduction for batteries and the GHG
reduction targets are to low to bring electro-mobility in the transport
sector without subsidies.
● Supporting electro-mobility influence the penetration in the midterm,
in the long term it’s the option to decarbonize the transport sector.
● A sensitivity analysis related the battery cost and the share of
renewable electricity generation of the gross electricity generation will
follow.

17. Markus Blesl 17th November 2014The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 17 / 38
Thank you for your
attention !
Heßbrühlstr. 49a, 70565 Stuttgart
Tel.: +49 711 / 685 878 65
E-mail: Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de
IER
Institut für Energiewirtschaft
Rationelle Energieanwendung