Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling

1. Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
Prof. Brian Ó Gallachóir
Chair IEA ETSAP TCP Executive Committee
IEA-ETSAP IEA-Bioenergy Session,
72nd IEA ETSAP Workshop
ETH Zurich, Dec 11 2017

2. What is IEA ETSAP?
• One of 38 IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes
www.iea.org/tcp/
• 41 years international cooperation on energy systems
modelling (since first oil crisis)
• Develop and maintain (MARKAL and TIMES) tools
• Assist policy makers to build future energy pathways
• Focus on key role of technology to meet goals
• Biannual workshops and training
• Collaborative research and analyses

3. www.iea-etsap.org
IEA ETSAP Activity
Unique network of Energy Modelling teams from almost 70 countries use MARKAL &
TIMES models analyse energy systems and support decision making in energy policy.

4. Key Recent Developments
• Kazakhstan and Australia have joined ETSAP as Contracting Parties
• Enel Foundation and GE Energy have joined as sponsors.
• Japan and USA have reengaged as active ETSAP participants
• Modelling teams have formed in South Africa, Portugal, China and Pakistan
• ETSAP providing training to Argentina 2016, Brazil 2017 and Mexico 2018
• Improved techniques for modelling interactions between energy systems and
i) macro-economy, ii) power systems and iii) society
• Joint workshops with IEEJ (Japan), Univ of Sao Paolo (Brazil), DoE Fossil Energy
(USA) and IEA-GHG
• TIMES listed as one of the four selected modelling tools in the UNFCC guide
for preparing the national communications for non-Annex I parties (NDCs
provide significant opportunity for capacity building).

5. > 100 publications per annum (including 50 peer‐review journal papers) from:
i) Global Models: incl. IEA ETP model, original TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM),
derived TIAM models, ETSAP-TIAM model
ii) Regional Models: Pan‐European TIMES model, MARKAL‐TIMES Models for Europe, Asia and
North America.
iii) National Models of 32 countries (including China).
iv) Sub‐National Models: Western China, Reunion Island (France), Lombardy (Italy), Pavia (Italy),
and Kathmandu Valley (Nepal).
v) Local Models for rural areas and cities in Austria, Germany and Italy, other bigger cities such as
Madrid (Spain), Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai (China), Johannesburg (South Africa) and New
York City (United States).
http://iea-etsap.org/finreport/ETSAP_Annex_XII_Final%20Report.pdf
Multi-regional models
IEA ETSAP Outputs

6. IEA ETSAP Book 2015
www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319165394
• Methodologies and case studies
• Demonstrating use of energy systems models
• Supporting energy and climate policy
• Critical analysis of rich and varied applications
• Includes diverse global case studies
• Role of technology in energy systems
11,295 Chapter downloads - one of the top
25% most downloaded eBooks in the relevant
SpringerLink eBook Collection in 2016

7. TIMES Model
• linear programming bottom-up energy model
• integrated model of the entire energy system
• medium to long term analysis climate and energy policy analysis
(20 - 100 years)
• partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market)
• optimal technology selection
• minimize the total system cost
• environmental constraints
• system understanding of how technical challenges and techno-
economic costs change
– over time, and
– for different levels of (mitigation or renewable or …) ambition

8. TIMES Model
Given…
• Technology data
• End-use demands
• Fuel Supply curves
• Emission constraints
• Other parameters
– Discount rate
– Time period definition
– Time slice definition
Models provide…
• Technology investments
• Technology activities
• Emission trajectories
• Adjusted demands
• Marginal energy prices
• Imports/Exports
• Permit trading
• Total system cost

9. © OECD/IEA 2017
ETP modelling framework
End-use sectors Service demands
TIMES models
Industry
Long-term simulation
Buildings
Mobility Model (MoMo)
Transport
Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Heat
etc.
Passenger mobility
Freight transport
…
Space heating
Water heating
Lighting
…
Material demands
…
Renewables
Fossil
Nuclear
Electricity T&D
Fuel conversion
Fuel/heat delivery
ETP-TIMES Supply model (bottom-up optimisation)
Electricity and heat
generation
• Four soft-linked models based on simulation and optimisation modelling methodologies
• Model horizon: 2014-2060 in 5 year periods
• World divided in 28-42 model regions/countries depending on sector
• For power sector linkage with TIMES dispatch model for selected regions to analyse electricity system flexibility

10. © OECD/IEA 2017
Bioenergy-based technology routes in the supply-side model
Agriculture
residues, manure
Primary
bioenergy
Forest residues
Energy crops
Municipal waste
Final energy (solid, liquid and gaseous bioenergy; hydrogen) Agriculture
End-use
sectors
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Hydrogen
Gasification (w/o and w CCS)
Biofuel conversion
processes
Biogas
• Anaerobic digestion
• Gasification (w/o and w CCS)
Bio-ethanol (w/o and w CCS)
• Starch
• Sugar cane
• Lignocellulose
Biodiesel
• FAME (fatty acid methyl ester)
• HVO (hydrogenated vegetable oils)
• Fischer-Tropsch (w/o and w CCS)
Solid bioenergy
• Transport & processing
• Charcoal production
• Torrefaction
Power sector
technologies
Electricity-only and CHP
• ICE (internal combustion engine)
• Open-cycle gas turbine
• Combined-cycle turbine
• Steam turbine (grate firing, FBC)
• Biomass co-firing
• BIGCC w/o and w CCS
Heat boiler
Electricity
District heat
Process heat
From industry sector
• Black liquor
• Bagasse
Global trade in
liquid biofuels

11. © OECD/IEA 2017
0
10
20
30
40
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Efficiency 40%
Renewables 35%
Fuel switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
How far can technology take us?
Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060
could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Efficiency 40%
Renewables
35%
Fuel switching
5%
Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
Efficiency 34%
Renewables 15%
Fuel switching 18%
Nuclear 1%
CCS 32%
Global CO2 reductions by technology area
2 degrees Scenario – 2DS
Reference Technology Scenario – RTS
Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS
0 200 400
Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
2060

12. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP
• Current bioenergy use = 63 EJ per annum (half of which traditional
bioenergy use) = 11% of final energy use globally
• Sustainable bioenergy potential ~ 100 – 300 EJ per annum
• In IEA ETP 2017, bioenergy use is focussed on sectors with limited
decarbonisation options
• IEA ETP 2017 estimates we need approx. 145 EJ p.a. bioenergy for
• 2DS (2OC Scenario) with a focus on transport (30 EJ) with 2-3 EJ
from biogas
• B2DS (Below 2O Scenario) with a key need for negative emissions
(i.e. bioenergy with CCS (BECCS))

13. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP
Global bioenergy use 2015 – source IEA
46 EJ final demand from 63 EJ primary energy

14. © OECD/IEA 2017
Optimising the use of sustainable biomass
Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in IEA decarbonisation scenarios,
but gets used differently between the 2DS and the B2DS.
Bioenergy use by sector
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
RTS 2DS B2DS
Today 2060
EJ
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Agriculture
Fuel transformation w BECCS
Fuel transformation
Power w BECCS
Power

15. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP
Bioenergy contribution to final energy use
Comparing 2DS and B2DS
Source IEA ETP 2017

16. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP
Elec gen from Bioenergy - Comparing 2DS and B2DS - Source IEA ETP 2017

17. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP
IEA ETP 2017 2DS - global bioenergy use in transport

18. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
Chiodi A.; Gargiulo, Deane, J.P., Ó Gallachóir, B.P. 2015 The role of
bioenergy in Ireland’s low carbon future – is it sustainable? Journal of
Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
3(2), pp 196-216.
Czyrnek-Delêtre M., Chiodi A.; Murphy J.D.; Ó Gallachóir B. 2016 Impact
of including land use change emissions from biofuels on meeting GHG
emissions reduction targets - the example of Ireland Clean Technologies
and Environmental Policy 18 Pages 1745-1758

19. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
Hypothesis
Objectives
Impact of LUC emissions on the Irish energy
system is significant
Analyse current and future domestic
bioenergy sources and bioenergy trade
networks
Implement DLUC and ILUC emissions factors
for all bioenergy commodities in the Irish
TIMES
Assess the implications of above for Irish
energy system

20. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
DLUC emissions
Based on
literature
Exploratory
DLUC assumptions
EU CAP
Corn, sugar beet,
wheat, oilseed
rape domestic
and from EU
Sugar beet and
sugarcane
ethanol, oilseed
and palm
biodiesel
from outside EU
Conversion of
grassland to
arable land is
restricted
Zero DLUC
Conservative
approach
Miscanthus and
willow : as
perennial they
accumulate soil
organic carbon
Negative DLUC

21. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
ILUC emissions
ILUC assumptions
Based on
literature
Controversial
No or low ILUC
emissions
ILUC+
optimistic
High ILUC
emissions
ILUC-
conservative
No widely
accepted/used
methodology

22. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
ILUC+ and ILUC-
Tropical rainforest
converted to pastureGrass biomethane
ILUC
+
ILUC
-
Abundance of grass
Biomes converted to
barley
Miscanthus, willow,
wheat ethanol and
oilseed biodiesel
Biomes converted to
barley
Biomes converted to
cropland
Oilseed biodiesel,
sugar beet and
wheat ethanol
Biomes converted to
cropland
Tropical rainforest
converted to pasture
Sugarcane ethanol
Cerrado grassland
converted to pasture
Lowland rainforest to
croplandPalm oil biodiesel
Peatland rainforest to
cropland
Forest and grassland
to cropland
Corn ethanol
Grassland converted
to cropland (non EU)

23. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2010
CO2-80
CO2-80DLUC
CO2-80ILUC+
CO2-80ILUC-
CO2-80
CO2-80DLUC
CO2-80ILUC+
CO2-80ILUC-
ktoe . 2030 . 2050
ktoe
Other Renewables
Biogas
Bioliquids
Solid biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
Total Primary Energy Requirement
Increase in
bioenergy

24. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2010
CO2-80
CO2-80DLUC
CO2-80ILUC+
CO2-80ILUC-
CO2-80
CO2-80DLUC
CO2-80ILUC+
CO2-80ILUC-
ktoe . 2030 . 2050
ktoe
Other Renewables
Biogas
Bioliquids
Solid biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
Total Primary Energy Requirement
Increase in
efficiency
Reduction in
bioenergy

25. Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling
Prof. Brian Ó Gallachóir
Chair IEA ETSAP TCP Executive Committee
IEA-ETSAP IEA-Bioenergy Session,
72nd IEA ETSAP Workshop
ETH Zurich, Dec 11 2017

26. Cost and emissions balance
GDP
Process energy
Heating area
Population
Light
Communication
Power
Person
kilometers
Freight
kilometers
Service Demands
Coal processing
Refineries
Power plants
and
Transportation
CHP plants
and district
heat networks
Gas network
Industry
Commercial and
Public Services
Households
Transportation
Final energyPrimary energy
Domestic
sources
Imports
Demands
Energyprices,Resourceavailability
TIMES Model

27. ETSAP TIAM
• Global model (ETSAP-TIAM) now available in addition to modelling tools (TIMES)
• 15 Region global TIMES model available to ETSAP Contracting Parties
• Developed by GERAD and currently updated by ETSAP Collaborative Project
• Includes several thousand technologies and models climate forcing

28. Maximise net social surplusNet Social Surplus

29. Minimising Total System Cost
∑∈
−
•+=
YEARSy
yREFYR
yr yANNCOSTdNPV )()1( ,
where:
NPV is the net present value of the total cost (the OBJ);
ANNCOST(y) is the total annual cost in year y;
dr,y is the general discount rate;
REFYR is the reference year for discounting (2005);
YEARS is the set of years for which there are costs in the horizon
Minimise System Costs

30. • Capital Costs incurred for investing and dismantling plant;
• Fixed and variable Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs;
• Costs for exogenous imports and for domestic resource production;
• Revenues from exogenous exports;
• Delivery costs for required fuels consumed by plant;
• Taxes and subsidies associated with fuel flows and plant activities;
• Salvage value of plant at the end of the planning horizon;
• Welfare loss resulting from reduced end-use demands.
Total System Cost

31. IEA ETSAP in summary …
• ≥ Two workshops per year, one organized together with IEW
• 3-5 TIMES model training sessions around the world
• approx 200 teams involved from the whole world
• access to support and discussion forums
• jobs within TIMES modelling
• new tools and analyses are shared
• close collaboration with IEA, IRENA, Worldbank, etc.
• documentation:
– Annex report - http://www.iea-etsap.org/finreport/ETSAP_Annex_XII_Final%20Report.pdf
– Meetings - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/community/official-documents
– Projects - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-projects
– Model generator & user interface - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/documentation
– Technologies - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/energy-technology-data

32. Depicting reality in an ESM
Reality
Model
structure
Mathematical
description
P P
O P
Q P
BHKW S BHKW Coal BHKW
BHKW CO Coal BHKW
BHKW H BHKW Coal BHKW
_ _
_ _
_ _ _
= ⋅
= ⋅
= ⋅
η
ε
η
2
2
Model results
0
10
20
30
PJ
1990 2000 2010 2020
Household
Transport
Industry
Data
4a Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis
Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e
4a.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 16340 1269 0 0
4b Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis
Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e
4b.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 17125 9308 0 0
5 Entwicklung der Kapazitäten und der Erzeugung aus regenerativen Energiequellen (Mindestmengen) in Deutsch
Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e
5.1a Sonne GW 0,11 0,71 1,31 1,61 1,91
5.1b Sonne TWh p.a. 0,07 0,60 1,00 1,28 1,52
5.2a Wind GW 6,11 23,10 25,60 26,90 28,10
5.2b Wind TWh p.a. 9,50 43,54 57,96 64,02 70,08
5.3a Biomasse GW 0,59 0,80 1,00 1,10 1,20
5.3b Biomasse TWh p.a. 1,63 2,55 3,60 4,20 4,80
6 Energie- und Umweltpolitik in Deutschland bis 2030
Größe Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e
6,1
CO2-Zertifikatehandel
(Strom u. Industrie)
nein ja ja ja ja
6,2 CO2-Zertifikatepreis €2000/tCO2
- 3,00 9,00 12,00 14,00
Model Scope
Optimiser
(CPLEX/MINOS/CON
OPT/XPRESS/etc.)
Cross-checking
results with reality.
Feedback

33. ETSAP Tools