Global Hydrogen and Synfuel exchanges in an emission free energy system

1. IER
„Global Production
and Costs of
Hydrogen“
Energy System Analysis with ETSAP-
TIAM
Project ETSAP Deutschland
02. December 2022 Felix Lippkau
Prof. Markus
Blesl

2. • In the Paris Agreement, countries around the world recognized that it is necessary to limit
greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming preferably to 1.5°C.
• Based on the 1.5°C target, the IPCC has identified a global CO2 budget of 420 Gt [1].
• In order to achieve the 1.5°C target, a decarbonization of the energy system is necessary.
Hydrogen will play a central role as well as renewable energies.
• The use of renewable energies depends strongly on the regionally available potentials and
the associated costs.
02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 2
Motivation
[1] IPCC Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context in the Context of Sustainable Development

3. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 3
Model Scheme
ETSAP – (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) – TIAM2
• Global energy system model with
16 regions based on the TIMES
model generator
• Perfect Foresight
• Objective: cost minimal energy
supply
• Time horizon: 2015 – 2100
• Sectors: industry, transport,
agriculture, households and
commercial
• Detailed modeling of hydrogen
and synthetic fuels
[2] https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/applications/global

4. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 4
Hydrogen RES

5. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 5
Result of the 1.5°C Scenario – Global CO2 Emissions
• Global CO2 neutrality is
possible until 2050
• Use of CCS is inevitable to
compensate process
emissions based on industry
and agriculture
• Hydrogen and synthetic fuels
play a major role for
decarbonization

6. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 6
Result of the 1.5°C Scenario – Global Final Energy Consumption in 2100
• Replacement of the fossil
based energy carriers
necessary until 2050.
• Increasing electrification of all
sectors and especially
industrial processes
• Hydrogen has a share of
2,9% in 2050 and 5,8% in
2100
• Hydrogen is mostly used in
the transport and industrial
sector

7. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 7
Result of the 1.5°C Scenario – Global Hydrogen Production in 2100
CSA
MEX
USA
CAN
EEU
WEU FSU
JPN
SKO
ODA
AUS
AFR
MEA
GER
CHI
Total production: 11907 TWh
IND
• Regions with a lot of RE
potential and low
development costs can
produce hydrogen
cheaply
• Individual regions show
no/minimal local hydrogen
production in the cost-
optimal path. Among them
Germany, Western &
Eastern Europe.
• Limited RE potential and
electric are in direct
competition.

8. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 8
Result of the 1.5°C Scenario – Global Hydrogen Export in 2100
Total export: 3622 TWh (ca. 30 % of the global production)
CSA
MEX
USA
CAN
EEU
WEU FSU
JPN
SKO
ODA
AUS
AFR
MEA
IND
GER
CHI
• In the cost-optimal
path, 2 regions show as
exporters.
• Africa is mainly the
exporter for Europe.
• Central and South
America exports mainly
to North America.

9. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 9
Export Cost Africa to Germany
2030 2100

10. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 10
Export Cost Australia to Germany
2030 2100

11. 02.12.2022
IER Universität Stuttgart 11
• Hydrogen is necessary for the decarbonization of the global energy system in the long
term.
• Germany is dependent on hydrogen imports in the cost-optimal path. Costs including
transport could fall to as low as 84.9 €/MWh for Germany.
• Some regions are self-sufficient and can provide for themselves in the long term. For
some countries, hydrogen exports represent future sources of income.
• Uncertainties arise from additional consumption of hydrogen in industry and the
question of security of supply.
Conclusion

12. Thanks!
E-Mail
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685-
Fax +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
Heßbrühstraße 49a, 70565 Stuttgart
Felix Lippkau
87870
87873
Systemanalytische Methoden und Wärmemarkt
felix.lippkau@ier.uni-stuttgart.de