Energy, Industry, and Economy Models, Submodules, and Linkages

1. Max(well) Brown
IEA-ETSAP Workshop, Columbia University
December 1st, 2022
Energy, industry, and economy
models, submodules, and linkages

2. NREL | 2
• General: Daniel Steinberg
• FINITO: Caroline Hughes, Colin McMillan, Ookie Ma, Merve Olmez-Turan
• SLiDE: Jon Becker, Jared Carbone, Caroline Hughes
• Hydrogen: Patrick Brown, Paige Jadun, Mark Ruth
• CCTUS: Stuart Cohen, NREL, NETL, EMTEC (formerly EMRE)
• ReEDS Spatial and Temporal Flexibility: Patrick Brown, Wesley Cole, Matt Irish, Brian Sergi
Credit

3. CO2
ReEDS
SLiDE
FINITO
WINDC
Model Map
Long-term forecasting models:
• FINITO - The Fuels and Industry Integrated Optimization Model (fuels/industry)
• ReEDS – Regional Energy Deployment System (electricity)
• SLiDE – Scalable Linked Dynamic Equilibrium model (economy)
Economic models/data:
• JEDI – jobs and economic development index model
• WINDC – Wisconsin National Data Consortium (state-level)
• GTAP – Global Trade Analysis Project (international)
Power System Models:
• beetle - translator from ReEDS to SIIP and PLEXOS
• SIIP – scalable integrated infrastructure planning model
• PLEXOS – power system model (commercial)
Data inputs to dsGrid:
• ResStock - Residential buildings stock model
• ComStock - Commercial buildings stock model
• IGATE-E - Industrial Geospatial Analysis Tool for Energy Evaluation (ORNL)
• TEMPO - Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options Model
Miscellaneous:
• dsgrid – demand-side grid (8,760 load data by sector)
• dGen – distributed generation model (distributed PV)
• PRAS – probabilistic resource adequacy suite (reliability)
GTAP
dsgrid
dGen
H2
beetle
SIIP
PRAS
[Power, fuel supply, and industrial sector evolution]
[Economic, Distributional Impacts]
[Detailed power operations]
PLEXOS
Transport Electricity
and Fuel Demand
• Steinberg et al. – under review
JEDI
• Lord, 2014 – NETL updating by year end
ResStock
ComStock
IGATE-E
TEMPO
Publicly Available

4. SLiDE
FINITO
Today…
CO2 H2
• Steinberg et al. – under review
Focusing on:
• ReEDS: Electricity capacity
expansion (briefly)
• FINITO: Fuel supply and
industrial expansion
• SLiDE: Economic and
distributional impacts
• CO2 and H2 modules
ReEDS
[Power, fuel supply, and industrial sector evolution]
[Economic, Distributional Impacts]
• Lord, 2014 – NETL updating by year end

5. Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)
• LP: Minimize power sector’s costs of
operation and investment
• Detailed characterization of
renewable capacity
• High spatial*, technological, and
temporal* resolution
• Used in > 100 publications
Publicly available: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/reeds/

6. FINITO - Overview The Fuels and Industry Integrated
Optimization Model

7. NREL | 7
Draft – Internal Only – Do not cite
SLiDE
• Scalable
– Geographical: Counties* -> Nations
– Sectoral: Broad -> Specific
• Linked
– With sector-specific planning and
operations models
• Dynamic
– Consideration of future market conditions
– Myopic -> Intertemporal representations
• Equilibrium
– Linked version in GAMS
– Open-source model written in
SLiDE Repo: https://github.com/NREL/SLiDE
Relies on Wisconsin National Data Consortium:
https://windc.wisc.edu/
Preliminary and Exemplary Results – do not cite/quote
SLiDE
Preliminary Results – Do not cite/quote

8. CO2
• Recent work with
NETL and EMTEC
H2
• SERA, h2a, h2a-lite
• SMR, SMR-CCS, Electrolyzers
Constraints on..
- Injection rate
- Total, net injection
Costs of..
- Pipe and spur line investment
- Injection costs (levelized or investment)
- New and upgraded plant capacity
Pipelines and
Reservoirs

9. Relevant Projects, Next Steps
ReEDS
• Spatial and temporal flexibility*
FINITO
• Spatial flexibility
• LP/MILP & NLP/MINLP
• Shipping routes/distances/costs
SLiDE
• Demographics
• Calibration via/vs linkage

10. Objectives
• Inflation Reduction Act analysis (all three models)
• Pathways to decarbonize industry and fuel supply
• Interaction of industry and power for CO2 and H2 networks
• National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper

11. www.nrel.gov
Photo from iStock-627281636
Q&A
Maxwell.Brown@NREL.gov

12. Idea
• ReEDS standalone*
– H2 and CO2*
• …/modules/
– ..SLiDE/WINDC/GTAP*
– ..FINITO*
– ..dsgrid
– ..beetle/[SIIP and PLEXOS]

13. Appendix
• Minimum return on investment constraint (require price as variable or
markup?)
• Integer decisions on…
– Plant investment
– Product pipeline, storage, and injection (?) investment (primarily CO2,
H2)
• Notes on regional scaling:
– Downscaling state-level demands
– County-level for corn/stover/woody
– Downscaled from state on FOG/MSW
– Mappings to CENDIV/state/…

14. NREL | 14

15. NREL | 15
Source Data for Existing Capacity in
Focus Sectors
• All capacities for the focus sectors are represented at the facility level in physical units
Sector Source
Hydrogen • Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model
Ammonia • United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Cement • Spatial Finance Initiative
• Title V Operating Permits
• Company websites
Iron and Steel • EPA
• Spatial Finance Initiative
• Title V Operating Permits
• Company websites

16. NREL | 16
Process/Technology Representations
in the Focus Sectors
Product Pathway/Technology
Hydrogen • Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)
• SMR with CCS
• Electrolysis
Ammonia • Merchant Haber-Bosch (purchased H2)
• Integrated SMR (w/ and w/o CCS) + Haber-Bosch
• Electrolysis + Haber-Bosch
• Electrochemical
Cement All Portland Cement
• Conventional
• Tail-end 50% capture CCS
• Calcium looping CCS
Iron and Steel • Blast Furnace/Basic Oxygen Furnace w/ and w/o CCS
• Direct reduced iron (DRI): natural gas, natural gas w/ CCS, H2/NG blend, flash
• Electric Arc Furnace (EAF)

17. FINITO - TEMP
• Discuss
– Objective function
– Supply/demand curves
– Linkage
...
Model ReEDS /all/ ;
Solve ReEDS using LP minimizing Z_ReEDS ;
... same for FINITO ...
equation eq_reeds_finito_objective ;
variable Z_FINITO ;
eq_reeds_finito_objective..
Z =e= Z_ReEDS + Z_FINITO
;
Model ReEDS_FINITO /all/ ;
Solve ReEDS_FINITO using LP minimizing Z ;
...

18. FINITO – Preliminary Results
Preliminary Results – Do not cite/quote
80% linear
reduction in CO2
emissions by 2050
relative to 2022

19. NREL | 19
Draft – Internal Only – Do not cite
Fuel quantities
Labor and capital quantities
Electricity quantity and price
SLiDE
Fuel prices
Labor and capital price indices
Demand curve specification
Similar effort to USREP-ReEDS (Caron et al. 2018, Yuan et al. 2022)
Method from Böhringer and Rutherford, 2008
GTAP FINITO
ReEDS-SLiDE