Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs

1. 73rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop, 18th of June
Selma Brynolf, selma.brynolf@chalmers.se
Researcher at Mechanics and Maritime Sciences
Electrofuels for the transport
sector: A review of
production costs?

2. Increasing interest for power to x….
2 1 2
5
14
28
12
1 1 1 2
7 6 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Web of Science results Articles and reports in our review
The number of articles found in Web of Science and the articles and reports assessed in Tables 1 and 2 per year published. The error bar for 2016 represents the prognosis for the
year, given the publication rate as of May 2016. The following search was done in Web of Science: TS = (electrofuel* OR power-to-gas OR power-to-liquids OR power-to-fuels OR
(synthetic hydrocarbons OR synthetic fuels OR hydrocarbon fuels) AND (conversion of CO2 OR conversion of carbon dioxide OR carbon utilization OR carbon recycling)) AND TS =
(economic* OR production costs OR techno-economic OR cost* OR efficiency).
• large differences among the studies
• broad range of production cost estimates (10–3,500 €2015/MWhfuel)
• technology matureness, installation costs, and external factors

3. The review includes
Costs and efficiencies for the production steps
electrolysers
fuels synthesis
carbon capture
Production cost of power-to-x/electrofuels
hydrogen
methane
methanol
dimethyl ether
diesel
gasoline
Sensitivity analysis of the parameters with the greatest impact

4. Reference scenario 2015
different e-fuel options
assuming most optimistic (low/best), least
optimistic (high/worst) and average values
(base)
Electrolyser
uncertainties & indirect costs
Fuel synthesis
and CO2 capture
Electricity
Parameters assumed for 2015, 5 MW reactor, CF
80%.
Interest rate 5%
Economic lifetime 25 years
Investment costs:
Alkaline electrolyzers €/kWelec 1100 (600-2,600)
Methane reactor €/kWfuel 600 (100-900)
Methanol reactor €/kWfuel 1000 (600-1200)
DME reactor €/kWfuel 1000 (700-1300)
FT liquids reactor €/kWfuel 1300 (800-2100)
Gasoline (via meoh) €/kWfuel 1700 (1400-
2000)
Electrolyzer efficiency 65 (43-69) %
Electricity price 50 €/MWh el
CO2 capture 30 €/tCO2
O&M 4%
Water 1 €/m³

5. 11
Reference scenario 2030 different e-fuel options
assuming most optimistic (low/best), least optimistic (high/worst) and average values (base)
Parameters assumed for 2030, 50 MW reactor, CF
80%.
Interest rate 5%
Economic lifetime 25 years
Investment costs:
Alkaline electrolyzers €/kWelec 700 (400-900)
Methane reactor €/kWfuel 300 (50-500)
Methanol reactor €/kWfuel 500 (300-600)
DME reactor €/kWfuel 500 (300-700)
FT liquids reactor €/kWfuel 700(400-1000)
Gasoline (via meoh) €/kWfuel 900(700-1000)
Electrolyzer efficiency 66 (50-74) %
Electricity price 50 €/MWh el
CO2 capture 30 €/tCO2
O&M 4%
Water 1 €/m³
When data is
”harmonized”
between the fuel
options (low
compared to low
etc) the differences
between the fuel
options are minor.
E-gasoline only
slightly more
expensive

6. Reference scenario and 8 sensitivity cases
Electrolyser Electricity price
(€2015/MWh)
Synthesis plant size Carbon capture
cost (€2015/ton)
Assumed revenue for
heat and O2
Capacity factor Interest rate (%)
/depreciation time
(years)
2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
RS Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/*
S1 PEM PEM 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/*
S2 Alkaline SOEC 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/*
S3 Alkaline Alkaline 0 0 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 No No 20% 20% 5/* 5/*
S4 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Medium
scale
Large
scale
30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/*
S5 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
1000 500 No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/*
S6 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 Yes Yes 80% 80% 5/* 5/*
S7 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 No No 80% 80% 10/* 10/*
S8 Alkaline Alkaline 50 50 Small
scale
Medium
scale
30 30 No No 80% 80% 5/10 5/10
*The depreciation time is based on the life span of the electrolyser presented in Table 5 and a 25 years life span for the fuel synthesis plant.

7. S1. PEM electrolyser => larger
uncertainty, similar base cost
S4. Larger plants => Lowest production cost
S5. Air capture

8. Production cost e-methanol depending on
capacity factor
Production costs may
lie in the order of 100-
150 EUR/MWh in
future
It seam beneficial to run e-fuels plants for
at least 40% of the year

9. Fuel production cost somparison with
other studies
With base case assumptions
productions costs are:
• 200–280 €2015/MWhfuel in 2015
• 160–210 €2015/MWhfuel in 2030
16
Production cost found in literature
Fossil fuels 40-140
Methane from anaerobic digestion 40-180
Methane from gasification of lignocellulose 70-90
Methanol from gasification of lignocellulose 80-120
DME from gasification of lignocellulose 90-110
Ethanol from maize, sugarcane, wheat and waste 70-345
FAME from rapeseed, palm, waste oil 50-210
HVO from palm oil 134-185
Synthetic biodiesel from gasification of lignocellulose 120-655
Synthetic biogasoline from gasification of lignocellulose 90
Future production of electrofuels have the potential to be cost-competitive to the
most expensive biofuels

10. Most important cost contributors
High capacity factors => electrolyser capital costs, electrolyser stack life
span & electricity price
Low capacity factors => electrolyser capital cost, electrolyser stack life
span & other plant investment costs
Very low (<20%) capacity factor => high electrofuels cost
Electrofuels have the potential to be cost-competitive to the most
expensive biofuels
Conclusions

11. Thanks for your attention!
Maria Taljegård, PhD student
Space Earth and Environment
Chalmers University of Technology
maria.taljegard@chalmers.se
Selma Brynolf, Postdoc
Mechanics and Maritime Sciences
Chalmers University of Technology
selma.brynolf@chalmers.se
Julia Hansson, Postdoc
Mechanics and Maritime Sciences
Chalmers University of Technology
IVL
julia.hansson@ivl.se
Maria Grahn, Research leader
Mechanics and Maritime Sciences
Chalmers University of Technology
maria.grahn@chalmers.se
More information can be found in: Brynolf, S., Taljegard, M.,
Grahn, M. & Hansson, J. 2018. Electrofuels for the transport
sector: A review of production costs. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81, 1887-1905.
Selma Brynolf, selma.brynolf@chalmers.se
Researcher at Mechanics and Maritime Sciences